Round Two: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

[Yelling At Clouds]

Once upon a time, this guy was thought to be a top-ten pick!

 

[brandonchristensen]

I heard his name on this board yesterday as one of the top remaining picks. So that’s cool! Let’s hope he pans out.

 

[DJnVa]

Once upon a time, this guy was thought to be a top-ten pick!

Then he hit .249. It seems like he had some swing and miss issues. But if raw talent is there…

 

[bsj]

Then he hit .249. It seems like he had some swing and miss issues. But if raw talent is there…

Still seems like value there. Gotta believe this means they see something correctable

 

[bosockboy]

Sounds like Renfroe.

 

[chawson]

Wow, pretty incredible haul between these two guys. Wasn’t there a mock draft months ago that had us taking Fabian at #4?

 

[moondog80]

Fangraphs had him ranked 24th.

It's been somewhat trendy for a top prospect or two to skip the draft as a high school senior and early-enroll at their college to reach college eligibility a year sooner, and that's what Fabian did in 2018. He had a good freshman season for a rookie in the SEC then went to the Cape and raked, which continued during his COVID-shortened sophomore year. Fabian has a rare, unfavorable "backwards" profile -- he hits right and throws left, limiting him to 1B/OF -- but he has huge tools and is one of the younger college players available in the 2021 draft because of his early matriculation. His hitting hands work in an explosive loop that give him low-ball power but also lead to a lot of strikeouts. Fabian had the second most strikeouts in Division-I with 80 in 270 plate appearances, he was eighth in homers... as a 20-year-old center fielder playing in the SEC. His hands load deep and high, and Fabian's bat path doesn't always look like it's going to work, but he still covers the zone from (nearly) top to bottom and can pull his hands in to get the barrel on inside pitches. It's rare for players who strike out this much to end up having consequential major league careers, but a team picking late in the first will see his upside as too big an opportunity to pass on.

 

[AlNipper49]

Here he is hitting a HR off of that piece of crap Jack Leiter

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QywBLZxxSsQ&ab_channel=RMcElhaney

 

[canderson]

Great name. Other than that and hoping they can cut down the K rate, that's all I got here.

 

[Beomoose]

Jud Fabian is one hell of a name.

 

[DJnVa]

First half or so of season he was averaging nearly 2 Ks per game. Last half that dropped to about 1 per game, and that includes one nightmare series against Arkansas where he K’d 9 times in 3 games.

Game log here:https://floridagators.com/sports/baseball/roster/jud-fabian/14217

 

[Yo La Tengo]

McAdam reports that Fabian was ranked as the best college outfield defender in the country by Baseball America.

 

[Sin Duda]

Jud Fabian is one hell of a name.

J(ay) Fabian sounds outstanding.

 

[nolasoxfan]

We won’t know what we have in Fabian until he’s signed and turned loose.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qacdlN7UqWs

 

[snowmanny]

We won’t know what we have in Fabian until he’s signed and turned loose.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qacdlN7UqWs

Sort of surprised Detroit didn't take him.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC7vwx2FtDw

 

[Devizier]

Getting drafted by a marquee franchise in the second round must have been part of his Fabian strategy.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

High school profile. Nothing all that illuminating, but appreciate his answer for W, given Mayer's having to shake any MFY affiliation...

https://www.ocala.com/sports/20180426/to-z-with-trinity-catholics-jud-fabian

 

[nvalvo]

I liked Speier's Bradley comp.

Both are plus defensive CFs who hit in the middle of the order at SEC schools. Both were expected to go in the first half of the first round until setbacks in their pre-draft year — Bradley with a broken wrist that depressed his offensive production; Fabian with a swing change that led to a K spike — led them to slide a few dozen spots.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It's been awhile since the Sox got any real value out of a 2nd round pick. If you don't include Sam Travis, you have to go all the way back to Brandon Workman in 2010. Alex Wilson was 2009. Masterson in 2006.

Non pitcher division, you have to go all the way back to Dustin Pedroia, 2004.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's been awhile since the Sox got any real value out of a 2nd round pick. If you don't include Sam Travis, you have to go all the way back to Brandon Workman in 2010. Alex Wilson was 2009. Masterson in 2006.

Non pitcher division, you have to go all the way back to Dustin Pedroia, 2004.

Don't forgot the supplemental/balance rounds. In some ways the rounds are kind of arbitrary, as the #30 "first round" guy isn't usually equivalent to the top 10 picks, and probably clusters better with the picks number 25-35.

Has anyone ever done a sort of "overall pick" clustering analysis? Say, identifying picks 1-whatever as prime, and then looking at who got bad value there, and picks whatever-to-whatever as "second batch" and IDing good and bad value picks there, and so on?

 

[nvalvo]

It's been awhile since the Sox got any real value out of a 2nd round pick. If you don't include Sam Travis, you have to go all the way back to Brandon Workman in 2010. Alex Wilson was 2009. Masterson in 2006.

Non pitcher division, you have to go all the way back to Dustin Pedroia, 2004.

I think both Bradley and Fabian were #40 overall picks, even if Bradley was a "first rounder."