Round 2 Celtics vs. Wizards

[smastroyin]

First time in the second round since 2012 deserves a series thread.

This regular season, the Celtics were 2-2 against the Wizards. Unsurprisingly, because it's the Wizards, the home team won every game. Let's recap.

11/9: Wizards win 118-93. Celtics without Crowder or Horford. Porter and Gortat combine for 47 points on 20/28 shooting. Celtics only score 8 points in the first quarter, after that it's basically a run and gun game, Celtics never make it interesting, Wizards stopped playing defense. Beal hardly played but Trey Burke subbed in and hit for 18 on 7/9 shooting. Without Horford or Crowder, Stevens played a lot of guards - AB, IT, and Smart were all 35 minutes+, Rozier played 14, and even Demetrius Jackson got some run.

1/11: Celtics win 117-108. No Bradley, Amir, Brown (Jordan Mickey with the start!). This was a king of the 4th game, IT with 20 of his 38 in the 4th. Porter was efficient again, with 20 points on 9/12 shooting. Bradley Beal had 35. Marcus Smart kept Wall in check (9 pts on 4/21) but the effort kept himself in check (9 pts on 3/11, 0/5 from 3). The Celtics played small in the 4th to open space for IT and it worked.

1/24. Wizards win 123-108. C's without Bradley, and Amir could only play 4 minutes on his sore ankle. Beal and Wall go off for 58 on 23/38. Going small didn't help, the C's guards all shot terribly (IT 7/19, Smart 4/13, Rozier 1/6). Markioff Morris somehow ended up with 19 points.

3/20. Celtics win 110-102. Game wasn't this close, Wizards were down 17 for much of the 4th then hit some 3's to go on a 10-2 run, the game largely stayed Celtics +10 the rest of the way. This was the only game where everyone was healthy, so that's good news for the C's, but since it was in Boston you can't take too much out of it. IT was leading scorer with 25 but was 2/10 from 3. Avery Bradley had 20.

On the season, the Wizards were 30-11 at home, 19-22 on the road.

I think the most likely thing is the C's winning in 7, with the home team winning all 7 games, and with at least one of the games in DC being a total shellacking that gets us worried.

 

[the moops]

This was the only game where everyone was healthy, so that's good news for the C's, but since it was in Boston you can't take too much out of it..

I think we can indeed take much out of it. The Celts can/will/should win their home games. And if that happens, well, we know what that means

 

[RedOctober3829]

Will the Celtics switch Marcus Smart into the starting lineup for Gerald Green? He is a much better matchup on Wall than Green is. Wall and Beal vs. Smart and Bradley will be really fun to watch for however long the series lasts. I hope they don't regress back to Game 1/2 effort levels on the glass because Gortat and Morris are better than whoever Chicago threw out there.

Lastly, I hope they play smart. No cheap crap that could result in technicals. The Wizards will try to get in their heads.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Whichever non-IT guard is on the floor with him is going to have to kill it this series. Can survive either Wall or Beal going off but probably not both. The times when IT is off the floor will be huge as the D will have a chance to shine. Gortat aside, Washington isn't very big so we can keep the small ball train rolling. Bench needs to keep winning it's matchups. Nothing on that team should scare Olynyk into the hole he occasionally falls into.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Wall played lights out against the Hawks - 52.5% from the field including 47.4% from deep - who are actually a good defensive team. However as RO note and other pundits will surely point out, the Celtics have several players who can slow him down in Smart as well as Bradley and Crowder (and perhaps even Brown) - I would even put Rozier in that group to the extent that they ever share the floor.

Once again, this will be a series where we have the age old "best player on either team vs deeper team debate". I know for some, the depth argument falls flat given the tighter rotations in the playoffs but we just saw the Celtics show the value of having some weapons on the bench in their usage of Green this series. The C's run far deeper than the Wizards and will have the ability to make more adjustments as the series progresses.

Finally, if Boston has one clear edge over Washington this series, its in the coaching. Brooks probably gets some undeserved grief for his time in OKC but imho, Stevens is a far better coach than Brooks will ever be (imagine Stevens with that loaded OKC squad) and I expect him to make the right adjustments on the Wizards to slow Wall/Beal and challenge players consistently beat the Celtics (Porter will have some good stats this series).

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

This feels like a tough series just from a match ups standpoint. It's not at all clear to me what you do with IT on the defensive end. Wall and Beal will kill him, and Porter's big enough and good enough to take advantage of that matchup.

 

[#classicsquander]

The Wizards aren't good at defending the pick and roll, so the Isaiah/Horford pick and roll that worked so well against the Bulls should work here. And you would have to think some of those pull up threes that Isaiah is so fond of will start to fall, he hit 37% of them this season. I expect him to shoot lots of 3s of screens when Marcus handles the ball. Feels like these should be fun, high scoring games but I feel like the Celtics are the better defensive team and should win in 6.

Do folks think we'll see Amir in this series, to match up with Gortat? He hasn't played for about 10 days, do he should he be rested.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This feels like a tough series just from a match ups standpoint. It's not at all clear to me what you do with IT on the defensive end. Wall and Beal will kill him, and Porter's big enough and good enough to take advantage of that matchup.

You put IT4 on Wall and hope Wall's not hitting his jump shot.

If Wall plays like he did during the Hawks series (.563 eFG) and 10.3 assists per game and several times where he just took over when it looked like the Hawks had the 'Zards (oops, I mean Wiz) on the ropes, the Cs are going to have a tough time winning this.

One interesting thing about John Wall - he can only dunk with his right hand. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2015/02/13/john-walls-dirty-little-dunk-secret/?utm_term=.406ee9775c33. So if I'm the Cs, I make him go right all day long.

 

[Red Averages]

Any word on IT/others travel schedule today/tomorrow given the early start on Sunday?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Celtics biggest problem is who does IT guard? Porter?

Starting Smart is maybe defensible because Washington' bench sucks, but it raises the question of whether Washington will eat the lunch of the small IT&D lineup.

 

[smastroyin]

Let's not forget it's a bad matchup on both teams. I know some people like Schroeder a lot more than I do but he had his way more or less offensively and I think IT is way more skilled than he is, and AB is too if he's attacking like he did against the Bulls.

Maybe we'll see some mid 80s style playoff scores.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

I'm feeling emboldened by the impressive closeout of the Bulls. I think the C's sweep the first two at home, split the two in Washington, then win the series at home.

C's in 5 over the 'Zards.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Wall and Beal are great players and Porter is pretty good. That said, the 'Zards roster beyond that is a bunch of rotation pieces. The C's are going to do everything in their power to slow Wall, then focus on Beal and let the rest of that team beat them.

My guess is that most pundits will select Washington as the eventual winner given the buzz around Wall for his performance this past series but I won't be shocked if the Celtics beat them in six. Both teams are flawed but Washington is moreso imho.

 

[luckiestman]

I feel like this is a good matchup for the Cs. I'd rather be playing Wall and Co. than any other remaining team in either conference. If I'm being fair, the bullets could probably say the same about us.

Cs in 5. Win all home games and split in the capital.

 

[tims4wins]

Before the playoffs began I said Toronto or Washington would eliminate the C's. I am going to stick to that. I want to believe the C's gained a ton of confidence with how they came back against the Bulls. But I am worried they will drop a home game and then lose both on the road and eventually lose in 6. Hope I am wrong.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Let's not forget it's a bad matchup on both teams. I know some people like Schroeder a lot more than I do but he had his way more or less offensively and I think IT is way more skilled than he is, and AB is too if he's attacking like he did against the Bulls.

Yes. I kind of expect the Wizards to end up throwing everything they have into stopping IT, so it will come down to can other Celtics make shots and can they slow down the Wizards' offense.

 

[sezwho]

If the Cs can pull out a series win against the Wizards they will have really showed me something. I'm hopeful defeating the Bulls was more than just the Rondo effect, but I wouldn't want to put money on the Cs getting through.

 

[AimingForYoko]

I think the C's in a shaky six. I would not be surprised if they look off tomorrow because IT's travels but I also believe that he will shoot much better in this series. Couple that with the bench not playing like zombies & I think they can do this. I wouldn't put money on it though, because like smastroyin, I fully expect this team to drop 1 (or more) in such a way that it shakes our collective confidence in them.

But I also have faith that the Bullets will be the Bullets.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The Celtics biggest problem is who does IT guard? Porter?

Starting Smart is maybe defensible because Washington' bench sucks, but it raises the question of whether Washington will eat the lunch of the small IT&D lineup.

Seems like an awful matchup. Porter could just shoot over IT4 and he's not a guy you want shooting 3s against you. Then again, IT4 on Beal or Wall sounds pretty awful too.

I think the Celtics biggest advantage this series is depth, so it will come down to how their bench plays.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, I'm not sure IT on the 6'8 Porter is the first choice.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

One thing to watch is how the Cs handle the Wall-Beal-Oubre-Porter-Gortat lineup where Oubre is guarding IT4. From memory, this lineup gave the Cs fits as Oubre is long and athletic. Apparently, it was the Zards’ best lineup all season net rating wise (also third in the NBA).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Fwiw, 3/20 was also the only game the Wizard had Bojan and Jennings.

 

[DJnVa]

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Jerebko getting the start over Green seems possible.

I think IT will open on Porter, giving up a foot, because as bad as that matchup sounds it still beats putting him on Wall or Beal.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It's a shame that IT never got to play with KG.

 

[sezwho]

I'm trying to come up with scenarios where the Cs can beat the Wizards and I'm really struggling. Based both on career and last season's numbers Gortat should be able to duplicate, if not exceed, Lopez's rebound and scoring numbers. Maybe Horford is a better match up against Marcin than Brook somehow? Looking at the starting lineups I'm pretty sure the Wizards are better at every position but center and we are likely to get waxed on the boards regardless. I guess we can hope the bench swings the series but thats pretty thin gruel. I'm a scared' in case someone wants to talk me in off the ledge.

 

[JakeRae]

I'm trying to come up with scenarios where the Cs can beat the Wizards and I'm really struggling. Based both on career and last season's numbers Gortat should be able to duplicate, if not exceed, Lopez's rebound and scoring numbers. Maybe Horford is a better match up against Marcin than Brook somehow? Looking at the starting lineups I'm pretty sure the Wizards are better at every position but center and we are likely to get waxed on the boards regardless. I guess we can hope the bench swings the series but thats pretty thin gruel. I'm a scared' in case someone wants to talk me in off the ledge.

The Wizards decided there is a rivalry and showed up to all the regular season games and their "superior talent" wasn't enough to win in Boston. There is a reason we are the 1 seed and they are the 4. Stop looking at players and look at the teams. The Celtics are the better team.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm trying to come up with scenarios where the Cs can beat the Wizards and I'm really struggling. Based both on career and last season's numbers Gortat should be able to duplicate, if not exceed, Lopez's rebound and scoring numbers. Maybe Horford is a better match up against Marcin than Brook somehow? Looking at the starting lineups I'm pretty sure the Wizards are better at every position but center and we are likely to get waxed on the boards regardless. I guess we can hope the bench swings the series but thats pretty thin gruel. I'm a scared' in case someone wants to talk me in off the ledge.

Wiz may - emphasis on "may" - have better individual players but the one thing the Cs have for them is that (i) they play defense most of the time and the 'Zards do not always play defense, and (ii) the Wiz's bench is truly bad so Wall/Beal have to play a lot of minutes.

WW gave up 107, 101, 116, and 111 points to the Hawks in the first four games. The Cs should be able to score. Not to restate the obvious, but the more difficult they make life for Beal/Wall, the better chance they have to win.

 

[smastroyin]

I think the individual players thing is not as huge a gap as implied, either. Certainly in the front court, the C's are way ahead unless all you count in your evaluation is performance in the paint. Horford is world's better than anyone the Wizards have, and if (seems like a big if because he was slow as hell) Johnson is healthy he's not much worse than Morris (just less usage, which counts). Crowder and Porter are similar on offense, but Crowder is a much better defensive player who an switch onto Beal or Wall if he needs to.

The Wizards starting 5 are really good, all the numbers say so, but they are, like the rest of the team, much better in DC than on the road. The Celtics starting 5 is pretty darn good too, they just haven't been together that much because of Bradley missing so much time, and Horford's early injury.

I don't want to have a lot of hubris, this will be a tough series, but to say the Celtics don't have any hope before we've even had a tip is a bit much.

 

[sezwho]

Thanks folks, those are solid points. Defense, depth, coaching and team play are all positives for the Cs whereas the Wizards are only going as far as hero ball and their stars can carry them. Hopefully it isn't far!

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Gerald Green starts according to Brad. I kind of expected Jerebko and wouldn't rule out some starts for the Swedish Bird before this is all over. I think with Green in there you have 2 potential mismatches (IT on Wall, Beal, or Porter; Green on Morris). The defensive assignments should be interesting.

 

[BigSoxFan]

This series seems like a coin flip to me and I expect to be tied 2-2 after 4.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

My "based on nothing" guess is Celts sweep first 2 at home, split next two on the road, lose game 5 at home, and then win game 6.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Thanks folks, those are solid points. Defense, depth, coaching and team play are all positives for the Cs whereas the Wizards are only going as far as hero ball and their stars can carry them. Hopefully it isn't far!

The Wiz or 'Zards have to play heavy minutes for Wall and Beal and have them be effective for them to drub the C's. That can happen but even with tight rotations, its not a recipe for success. These guys are all human and playing 40+ minutes a night against teams that play defense on every sequence (basically what doesn't happen in your average regular season NBA game when we get all the gifs of guys like Harden looking like a turnstile) is brutal. Aside from keying on Wall and slowing Beal, the C's are going to have good match-ups when the second unit is on the floor. You may see their biggest runs then.

I am completely on the other side of this than you are - if the C's play well, they will beat Washington in six. This isn't to say that Washington can't win but that would likely take the Celtics playing below their season averages while Washington plays well above what they did that season.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

This series seems like a coin flip to me and I expect to be tied 2-2 after 4.

Agreed. This series could go either way and I don't think it's going to be easy for either team.

 

[smastroyin]

Well, that was a fun as hell game 1, you know, after the first 8 minutes or so.

If Morris is out that kind of sucks, I'd rather play full strength, but his absence gives the Celtics a pretty big edge at C/F I think.

Crowder isn't going to hit 75% of his 3's every game, but if he can get back to the 40% while keeping everything else in order, it's huge for the Celtics.

Brown made a good case for grabbing Gerald Green's minutes. Green looked absolutely putrid today in 7 minutes. Probably the Celtics worst 7 minutes of the game. If Stevens stays small (which is easier with no Morris) then we might see Smart get the start in game 2 and Brown get 10-12 minutes of run. We'll see.

 

[RedOctober3829]

"Markieff Morris said he will definitely play in Game 2. Said that team wanted him to sit rest of game with ankle injury, see bigger picture for entire series."

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0650427707015831243-4

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think they need to move away from starting Green. I'd rather see Jaylen start, with Smart/Olynyk/Rozier/Jerebko off the bench.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Celtics won't always be as deadly from 3 as they were today, but at least some of their success was due to getting quality catch and shoot looks from 3.

 

[Fishy1]

Wall had a ton of turnovers this afternoon. Still 16-8 AST-TO, but the C's did a great job, especially in that third quarter.

How well the Wizards handle the defensive pressure will be one of the biggest factors going forward.

 

[Montana Fan]

I think they need to move away from starting Green. I'd rather see Jaylen start, with Smart/Olynyk/Rozier/Jerebko off the bench.

Smart needs to be on the court whenever Beal and Wall are playing together. Jaylen can come in to guard Bogdanovic when he's in.

 

[smastroyin]

I do wonder if at least one team will score 120 in every game. The Wizards (as we saw) can score in bunches, but they also can go into completely absent defense.

 

[scottyno]

Smart has to start game 2 if Morris is out and Oubre starts, Smart and Bradley on the 2 guards and let IT stand in the corner on Oubre

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Brown made a good case for grabbing Gerald Green's minutes. Green looked absolutely putrid today in 7 minutes. Probably the Celtics worst 7 minutes of the game. If Stevens stays small (which is easier with no Morris) then we might see Smart get the start in game 2 and Brown get 10-12 minutes of run. We'll see.

Gerald was a -13. Amir was a -7. Every other Celtic was at least even. Crowder (+26), Horford (+21), Rozier (+13), and Smart (+12).

Smart needs to be on the court whenever Beal and Wall are playing together. Jaylen can come in to guard Bogdanovic when he's in.

Good point. Need to figure something out with the bench, though, if Smart is going to play with the starters.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Wall had a ton of turnovers this afternoon. Still 16-8 AST-TO, but the C's did a great job, especially in that third quarter.

How well the Wizards handle the defensive pressure will be one of the biggest factors going forward.

We'll see what noted mastermind Scott Brooks can come up with.

 

[Fishy1]

We'll see what noted mastermind Scott Brooks can come up with.

Using all your timeouts with a quarter to go. Now that's thinking.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Listening to 98.5, two different callers said that Smart left the court in the 4th quarter without being subbed for. Did anyone else see this?

 

[Thetoddwalker]

Listening to 98.5, two different callers said that Smart left the court in the 4th quarter without being subbed for. Did anyone else see this?

The announcers brought that up, he left when someone else was supposed to be subbed out. Horford talked with him and it seemed to not be a big deal.

 

[DJnVa]

It was after he committed that dumb foul and I think he thought it was him being subbed for.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The announcers brought that up, he left when someone else was supposed to be subbed out. Horford talked with him and it seemed to not be a big deal.

Yeah it looked like IT was coming in for Rozier and Smart who had just made 4 straight terrible plays asked out to calm down and clear his head. Brad seemed fine with it, he sat and talked with Horford for a minute or 2 of game time then he went in for Rozier and played more under control.