Round 2: Celtics vs Cavs

[Eddie Jurak]

So I was listening to the Ringer's Boston sports podcast (Off the Pike w/Brian Barrett) and he made the point that Mitchell just destroyed Al Horford in game 3 when Al was switched onto him. He also noted that Horford's defense in isolations has slipped from the past 2 years. He has been one of the most frequently isolated defensive players in the league since coming back to Boston (in the first 2 years he was well above average in both regular season and playoffs). This year he was roughly league average during the regular season (52nd percentile).

I'm not sure, though, what that says about the Celtics defense in game 3. On the one hand, one might argue that the Celtics should not rely on a defense that allows Mitchell to repeatedly attack Horford. But, on the other hand, maybe the Celtics are playing rope-a-dope with Mitchell. Let him keep exploiting the favorable matchup but make sure that other guys aren't being left open for kickouts and other ways of generating offense.

In game 1, Mitchell scored 33 points through 3 quarters and then zero in the 4th.

In game 2, Mitchell scored 22 points through 3 quarters and 7 in the 4th, very proportional, but the 4th quarter was almost all garbage time.

In game 3, Mitchell scored 30 points through 3 quarters and just 3 in the 4th.

Maybe they need either the Celtics to play like crap or they need Mitchell to go off for 40+ in order to have a chance to win, and maybe Mitchell for whatever reason can't deliver that.

I do worry a bit about the minutes load on Al, but I don't think allowing him to be switched onto Mitchell a lot necessarily hurts the Celtics overall defense over the full course of a game.

 

[Jakarta]

So I was listening to the Ringer's Boston sports podcast (Off the Pike w/Brian Barrett) and he made the point that Mitchell just destroyed Al Horford in game 3 when Al was switched onto him. He also noted that Horford's defense in isolations has slipped from the past 2 years. He has been one of the most frequently isolated defensive players in the league since coming back to Boston (in the first 2 years he was well above average in both regular season and playoffs). This year he was roughly league average during the regular season (52nd percentile).

I'm not sure, though, what that says about the Celtics defense in game 3. On the one hand, one might argue that the Celtics should not rely on a defense that allows Mitchell to repeatedly attack Horford. But, on the other hand, maybe the Celtics are playing rope-a-dope with Mitchell. Let him keep exploiting the favorable matchup but make sure that other guys aren't being left open for kickouts and other ways of generating offense.

In game 1, Mitchell scored 33 points through 3 quarters and then zero in the 4th.

In game 2, Mitchell scored 22 points through 3 quarters and 7 in the 4th, very proportional, but the 4th quarter was almost all garbage time.

In game 3, Mitchell scored 30 points through 3 quarters and just 3 in the 4th.

Maybe they need either the Celtics to play like crap or they need Mitchell to go off for 40+ in order to have a chance to win, and maybe Mitchell for whatever reason can't deliver that.

I do worry a bit about the minutes load on Al, but I don't think allowing him to be switched onto Mitchell a lot necessarily hurts the Celtics overall defense over the full course of a game.

Al is the worst isolation defender amongst the starters so it makes sense that he is targeted. But I think he is good enough that he makes Mitchell work hard and then shoot an off the dribble contested jumper a lot of times and I suspect CJM prefers that to trying another scheme.

 

[chilidawg]

Al is the worst isolation defender amongst the starters so it makes sense that he is targeted. But I think he is good enough that he makes Mitchell work hard and then shoot an off the dribble contested jumper a lot of times and I suspect CJM prefers that to trying another scheme.

I think this is about right. Mitchell made a number of tough jumpers over Al, decent looking contests to my eye. I wouldn't say he "destroyed" Al at all.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Al is the worst isolation defender amongst the starters so it makes sense that he is targeted. But I think he is good enough that he makes Mitchell work hard and then shoot an off the dribble contested jumper a lot of times and I suspect CJM prefers that to trying another scheme.

I'll happily take "Mitchell taking step back contested 3s over Al Horford".

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Al is the worst isolation defender amongst the starters so it makes sense that he is targeted. But I think he is good enough that he makes Mitchell work hard and then shoot an off the dribble contested jumper a lot of times and I suspect CJM prefers that to trying another scheme.

There was a lot of discussion of this in the game thread, and unfortunately it wasn't just Mitchell - Cavs seemed to be hunting Al, both on switches and directly. He's just not great in space anymore, though his rim protection/paint defense continues to be pretty solid. This was paticularly notable in the first half; one adjustment in second is that Jrue started fighting through picks and actions more to stay closer and reduce the need for switches. Cleveland also seemed to be less active in targeting Al, and there likely are some shading or other tweaks that impacted that.

The Celtics responses this, without KP, are limited. I would try Tillman - he's more mobile and quicker than Al at this point, though not as experienced or as a good a ball-mover on offense. He doesn't even threaten to space but Al isn't shooting well and they are drifting off him anyway. As a couple people suggested here and in gamethread, there's also an interesting case for Tatum at 5 when Cavs have Mobley out - it's not Celtics typical, but I wonder if it's a worthwhile tradeoff to get the quickness out there. As an aside, I think Tatum can also mark Mobley as his post game and force are both limited. But I get why Celtics wouldn't want too many possession of that, either

On the "let Mitchell cook" against Al (e.g. "don't respond to those actions") it's fair to say that he'll not continue his first half shooting - and he didn't. But I do worry that Mitchell can score a bunch and that he'll disrupt the overall D even if not all shooting. The Cs strategy in second half was to let Mitchell do his thing and prevent others from getting going, and that's not wrong to me...but also doesn't mean "ok if Al is on an island all the time" either as MItchell can put up a lot of points even wtihout hot 3pt shooting.

 

[jayhoz]

I was there. I don't agree with this at all. Not even a little.

I think the broadcast had the crowd noise turned way down. Pretty sure this was discussed in real time.

 

[mwonow]

There was a lot of discussion of this in the game thread, and unfortunately it wasn't just Mitchell - Cavs seemed to be hunting Al, both on switches and directly. He's just not great in space anymore, though his rim protection/paint defense continues to be pretty solid. This was paticularly notable in the first half; one adjustment in second is that Jrue started fighting through picks and actions more to stay closer and reduce the need for switches. Cleveland also seemed to be less active in targeting Al, and there likely are some shading or other tweaks that impacted that.

The Celtics responses this, without KP, are limited. I would try Tillman - he's more mobile and quicker than Al at this point, though not as experienced or as a good a ball-mover on offense. He doesn't even threaten to space but Al isn't shooting well and they are drifting off him anyway. As a couple people suggested here and in gamethread, there's also an interesting case for Tatum at 5 when Cavs have Mobley out - it's not Celtics typical, but I wonder if it's a worthwhile tradeoff to get the quickness out there. As an aside, I think Tatum can also mark Mobley as his post game and force are both limited. But I get why Celtics wouldn't want too many possession of that, either

On the "let Mitchell cook" against Al (e.g. "don't respond to those actions") it's fair to say that he'll not continue his first half shooting - and he didn't. But I do worry that Mitchell can score a bunch and that he'll disrupt the overall D even if not all shooting. The Cs strategy in second half was to let Mitchell do his thing and prevent others from getting going, and that's not wrong to me...but also doesn't mean "ok if Al is on an island all the time" either as MItchell can put up a lot of points even wtihout hot 3pt shooting.

I keep hearing (and thinking) this, but is it true? In the limited times I've seen Tillman in ISO on the perimeter, he seems to give up drives pretty easily. His rep for having good feet and the ability to stay in front of smaller players up top seems (IMO) not to be borne out by the eye test.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

We've been talking about how we will need to find a real replacement for Horford for something like seven years, certainly before he left for Philly

The problem is the version of Horford from 3-4 years ago-- where he wasn't great at anything but wasn't a liability at anything-- is really, really hard to replace. A guy who can defend inside, defend outside, control the glass, rotate fast on help defense to protect the paint, shoot efficiently from all over the court, bring the ball up in transition, pass, etc. etc. --> That version of Al is obviously gone now.

KP is the replacement the front office found. Tillman is the change-of-pace more bruising, defensive alternative. I'm looking forward to seeing what Tillman can do with a whole offseason and training camp to practice the defense. He and PickSwap both arrived at the deadline too and struggled to fit in their first months on a new team.

Every team in the league wants a late-prime Al Horford. We might be waiting a while

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I keep hearing (and thinking) this, but is it true? In the limited times I've seen Tillman in ISO on the perimeter, he seems to give up drives pretty easily. His rep for having good feet and the ability to stay in front of smaller players up top seems (IMO) not to be borne out by the eye test.

Great post and I agree. I really like Tillman, flaws and all, but he seems limited since landing with the Cs. I don't know if its his knee or something else but he seems to get beaten more than I recall.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Great post and I agree. I really like Tillman, flaws and all, but he seems limited since landing with the Cs. I don't know if its his knee or something else but he seems to get beaten more than I recall.

Yeah I like Tillman too, and he's fantastic Al insurance. But he's poor man's Al.

Pretty much everyone on planet earth struggles to stop Donovan Mitchell from getting off decent shots. He's a prime shot creator. Al has generally hedged as well as can be expected and isn't giving up super easy shots at the rim or from three. He's giving up contested shots. There is zero chance that this Celtics team loses a best of seven series because Mitchell took and hit a mountain of step-back threes over Al Horford. This idea is a solution in search of a problem (and doesn't even really pose a viable solution).

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I keep hearing (and thinking) this, but is it true? In the limited times I've seen Tillman in ISO on the perimeter, he seems to give up drives pretty easily. His rep for having good feet and the ability to stay in front of smaller players up top seems (IMO) not to be borne out by the eye test.

I think the reality is we don't know, and it is quite possible Tillman is no better (or worse). My comment would be that it's worth trying UNLESS from practice they know he's clearly worse on perimeter than Al is, even in Al's diminished state.

We saw him do it well last year with Memphis, I would say. His knee may be sore; he may have put on 5-10 pounds; he might still be that guy. Dunno.

Also, this is a question of degree - no big is going to stop Mitchell. It's more about making it harder and even to a degree giving him different looks and things to solve. Al is always trying to get to the right spot - Tillman may not be. But Tillman may be a bit stronger, or a bit faster to recover nad that's differnet for Mitchell and thus, in my view, helpful.

Unless, again, Cs have deduced from practice he's just not capable of it....

 

[Saints Rest]

I think the value in playing Tillman, or more of Kornet, or more with Tatum at the 5, is to get Al some more rest until KP returns. 39 minutes (Al's G3 total) is not conducive to his best work, in either the short or long term.

I'd like to see what the C's could do against CLE with a lineup of Jrue on Mobley and JB on Mitchell, plus some combo of DW, PP, SH and JT filling the other 3 spots.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

So, I'm guessing here, but I think the issue with Tillman is not physical, but just reps/time spent on the court integrating with the rest of the rotation playing our defense

We're at the time of the year when the coaching staff, correctly, has the least risk tolerance for putting someone into the game if they're going to get something wrong on a handful of defensive possessions. And at the same time Tillman has had relatively little playing time with the first string since he arrived a few months ago. Which is what you'd expect from a guy who is basically your 4th string big man that you acquired late in the season. Who we're only talking about him because our 1st string big man is injured, our 3rd string has been exposed on defense against the Cavs, and our 2nd string is really old.

Putting in the reps so that guys are all on the same page is what October through March are for. Getting lots of time playing together and working on the stuff you mess up related to 'how we do things here'. Like White the year we acquired him, Tillman missed all that.

I'm guessing we (the fans) won't know what we really have in Tillman (and perhaps Jaden Springer) until they're had an off season and a training camp and a few months playing in regular season games to get their feet under them.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Wish I could find it, but someone was lookign through and basically they said that Horford was not as bad on D as it looked live, a few miscommunications, but mostly he just got cooked by Mitchell, but even on those, Mitchell hit a bunch of step-back 3s over him, which BOS will live with.

I watched back... not 100% sure I agree, but it was less bad than it looked outside the very early stuff before they switched the D, and a couple spots at the end of his shifts where he looked gassed.

Horford isn't what he once was, but I think he's an elite backup big who can play a solid starting big role while KP is out. I wonder if Kornet going on the Injury report with calf tightness is also a reason Horford didn't get more rest in the 2nd half.

Overall.... not that worried about Al for the rest of this series, would like to see him get a couple more breathers though, played 38 minutes in game 3, I think that needs to come down to 33 or 34 max

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Every team in the league wants a late-prime Al Horford. We might be waiting a while

They do keep popping up though you just have to have the vision of what a player can become in your system with your surrounding personnel and find away to snatch them away from their current team. Two years ago would anyone have expected Hartenstein, Gafford or Naz Reid to be this impactful? Look at how much guys like Kornet, Mo Wagner, Day’Ron Sharpe and Santi Aldama have improved over the last 1-2 years.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Might have a developing situation here…
View: https://twitter.com/timbontemps/status/1790032819189653719?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA

 

[lovegtm]

Wish I could find it, but someone was lookign through and basically they said that Horford was not as bad on D as it looked live, a few miscommunications, but mostly he just got cooked by Mitchell, but even on those, Mitchell hit a bunch of step-back 3s over him, which BOS will live with.

I watched back... not 100% sure I agree, but it was less bad than it looked outside the very early stuff before they switched the D, and a couple spots at the end of his shifts where he looked gassed.

Horford isn't what he once was, but I think he's an elite backup big who can play a solid starting big role while KP is out. I wonder if Kornet going on the Injury report with calf tightness is also a reason Horford didn't get more rest in the 2nd half.

Overall.... not that worried about Al for the rest of this series, would like to see him get a couple more breathers though, played 38 minutes in game 3, I think that needs to come down to 33 or 34 max

Karalis went back and watched and posted that about Al.

I'm not sure how someone can think Al's D and the switching plan were a problem in a game in which Cleveland needed an insane Mitchell heater on stepback 3s to hit even 93 (!) points.

That said, I'm concerned about his minutes and fatigue going forward.

 

[NomarsFool]

Please, please, please don't let a Mitchell-less Cavs team beat you

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Wish I could find it, but someone was lookign through and basically they said that Horford was not as bad on D as it looked live, a few miscommunications, but mostly he just got cooked by Mitchell, but even on those, Mitchell hit a bunch of step-back 3s over him, which BOS will live with.

I watched back... not 100% sure I agree, but it was less bad than it looked outside the very early stuff before they switched the D, and a couple spots at the end of his shifts where he looked gassed.

Horford isn't what he once was, but I think he's an elite backup big who can play a solid starting big role while KP is out. I wonder if Kornet going on the Injury report with calf tightness is also a reason Horford didn't get more rest in the 2nd half.

Overall.... not that worried about Al for the rest of this series, would like to see him get a couple more breathers though, played 38 minutes in game 3, I think that needs to come down to 33 or 34 max

You can look at the matchup data from NBA.com. Al's is below for G3. He was basically fine against everyone but Mitchell (6-11; 4-7 from 3P) and LaVert (3-5; 1-2 from 3P).

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Karalis went back and watched and posted that about Al.

I'm not sure how someone can think Al's D and the switching plan were a problem in a game in which Cleveland needed an insane Mitchell heater on stepback 3s to hit even 93 (!) points.

That said, I'm concerned about his minutes and fatigue going forward.

I think the way the team should, and very likely does, think about this is "where can we improve" regardless of whether they won or not. I don't think - nor have I read anyone saying - that Al's D is a crisis. I do think there were some challenges with it in game 3, and would be surprised if the team isn't thinking about how to do that better.

One reason why, as noted, is simply about minutes and wear.

 

[jezza1918]

You can look at the matchup data from NBA.com. Al's is below for G3. He was basically fine against everyone but Mitchell (6-11; 4-7 from 3P) and LaVert (3-5; 1-2 from 3P).

View attachment 82553

unless im misremembering, 2 of those lavert buckets were pretty easy layups in the 4th when he just blew by Al. Those alarmed me alot more than the Mitchell stuff...but I cant track D live well enough to understand if he's expecting help or something along those lines?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

You can look at the matchup data from NBA.com. Al's is below for G3. He was basically fine against everyone but Mitchell (6-11; 4-7 from 3P) and LaVert (3-5; 1-2 from 3P).

View attachment 82553

To my eyes it's against quickness and in space -he remains very good in the paint.

It's not just about Mitchell getting hot, though...it's also about Mitchell getting by him easily. Obviously, any big is goign to struggle with Mitchell one on one, though Al seemed to struggle against LeVert as well

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think the reality is we don't know, and it is quite possible Tillman is no better (or worse). My comment would be that it's worth trying UNLESS from practice they know he's clearly worse on perimeter than Al is, even in Al's diminished state.

We saw him do it well last year with Memphis, I would say. His knee may be sore; he may have put on 5-10 pounds; he might still be that guy. Dunno.

Also, this is a question of degree - no big is going to stop Mitchell. It's more about making it harder and even to a degree giving him different looks and things to solve. Al is always trying to get to the right spot - Tillman may not be. But Tillman may be a bit stronger, or a bit faster to recover nad that's differnet for Mitchell and thus, in my view, helpful.

Unless, again, Cs have deduced from practice he's just not capable of it....

If I am reading BRef's plus/minus charts correctly Tillman has only played 57 seconds without Horford on the floor. I don't know if they don't want Tillman matched up against Mobley but CJM and brain trust apparently don't trust Tillman playing the 5.

Tillman also isn't going to get a ton of minutes because he can't space the floor. Hopefully that's something that he develops so he can stick with the Cs.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

If I am reading BRef's plus/minus charts correctly Tillman has only played 57 seconds without Horford on the floor. I don't know if they don't want Tillman matched up against Mobley but CJM and brain trust apparently don't trust Tillman playing the 5.

Tillman also isn't going to get a ton of minutes because he can't space the floor. Hopefully that's something that he develops so he can stick with the Cs.

Yes, I agree philsophically they want a true big on the floor. I'm questioning whether that is 100% correct.

I do not agree that inability to space is a complete barrier, though - Kornet plays and he can't space the floor. It is certainly a factor, especially if he can't be counted on as the one big out there (e.g. you can't play two non-shooters for sure)

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

unless im misremembering, 2 of those lavert buckets were pretty easy layups in the 4th when he just blew by Al. Those alarmed me alot more than the Mitchell stuff...but I cant track D live well enough to understand if he's expecting help or something along those lines?

You can look at all of the shot attempts and shot makes on nba.com.

The three baskets LaVert made were: (i) a FB basket where everyone (including Al) was late getting down the floor; Al tried to contest so that's why he was charged; (ii) a step-back 3P; and (iii) the Lavert layup you recall. As for your question, below is the moment just before LaVert is passed the ball. Al is helping on a Garland/Mobley PnR. He is probably a little too far towards Garland - you can see the lane in the pic below - and because of that, LaVert can drive past him but I would consider this a positioning error, not a physical one.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yes, I agree philsophically they want a true big on the floor. I'm questioning whether that is 100% correct.

I do not agree that inability to space is a complete barrier, though - Kornet plays and he can't space the floor. It is certainly a factor, especially if he can't be counted on as the one big out there (e.g. you can't play two non-shooters for sure)

I don't know if it's correct but I'm guessing that's what CJM thinks and I am certain he has his reasons for it.

Korny does provide some space (vertical, I guess they say) with his rim-running. That's one thing that X doesn't seem to be able to do.

 

[jezza1918]

You can look at all of the shot attempts and shot makes on nba.com.

The three baskets LaVert made were: (i) a FB basket where everyone (including Al) was late getting down the floor; Al tried to contest so that's why he was charge; (ii) a step-back 3P; and (iii) the Lavert layup you recall. As for your question, below is the moment just before LaVert is passed the ball. Al is helping on a Garland/Mobley PnR. He is probably a little too far towards Garland - you can see the lane in the pic below - and because of that, LaVert can drive past him but I would consider this a positioning error, not a physical one.

View attachment 82554

that's great stuff appreciate the added context!

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't know if it's correct but I'm guessing that's what CJM thinks and I am certain he has his reasons for it.

Korny does provide some space (vertical, I guess they say) with his rim-running. That's one thing that X doesn't seem to be able to do.

I hear that and I'm not saying CJM is a moron for not trying something different. There is no question they are a good org and the coaching staff is thinking about this stuff---where I think this board is best is where we try to think with them, ahead of them, etc. too. They know the game better than any of us here---but it's fun to try and anticipate, and they are not perfecf either.

With that in mind, I'd observe that Al is still really good at is providing a body who stops penetration without fouling. He's not a great shot blocker, but he is really, really good at positioning himself so he forces penetrators to take a 3-5 foot shot over him instead of a layup. Kornet isn't as good, but he's still a solid rim protector. That is worth several points a game, maybe more vs Cleveland given they have two good penetrating guards and an active Levert. So my guess is that is why CJM wants Al or Kornet out there - they are better at that than Tillman is.

However, the more Cleveland really attacks Al in space, especially through high PnR, though the less that is going to actually be a benefit. So schemetically the reason several of us were noting the challenge in 2nd quarter was it looked like a Cleveland strategy to pull Al outside and attack him, and that potentially requires a counter. What I saw Celts doing in 2nd half was attacking the PNR differently with Jrue and occasional drop. They may keep doing that; the more they pull Al outside, the more his weaknesses come out and the less his defensive strength helps.

 

[slamminsammya]

I said this in the game thread. If cleveland wants to pursue a strategy of getting off the dribble threes versus al i would welcome it. you won’t hit seven of those every game. people were overreacting to what was happening (shocker in a game thread).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

However, the more Cleveland really attacks Al in space, especially through high PnR, though the less that is going to actually be a benefit. So schemetically the reason several of us were noting the challenge in 2nd quarter was it looked like a Cleveland strategy to pull Al outside and attack him, and that potentially requires a counter. What I saw Celts doing in 2nd half was attacking the PNR differently with Jrue and occasional drop. They may keep doing that; the more they pull Al outside, the more his weaknesses come out and the less his defensive strength helps.

I know that lots of people were screaming at Al in the game thread. What I'm suggesting that is that what people perceive may not be reality.

I posted the matchup data against Al above. If you take out Mitchell and LaVert, NBA.com reports that Al gave up three buckets all game. One was to Mobley (4Q) on a transition dunk where Al was the nearest defender so he got charged. One was to Dean Wade, and I think we're all comfortable when Al matches up against Dean Wade so I'm not going to look at that play. The third was to Garland (4Q) when Garland beat Al off the dribble after faking a step-back, but Al also could have been expecting help.

The LaVert scores I spoke about above. So there's one, maybe two if you're going to count LaVert (I don't) where Al gets "blown by."

And as for Mitchell, he scored six buckets against Al, four of which were 3Ps so not blow-bys. The fifth (1Q) is where Mitchell got into the lane and hit a 9' half-floater/half-hook shot over Al after multiple pump fakes. The sixth (3Q) was where Mitchell did the reverse pivot turnaround that probably the only person in the world who could have defensed that is Wemby.

Maybe there are a few plays that NBA.com missed or there are a few plays where Al was in PnR and because he got beat someone else scored but according to NBA.com, CLE had 29 FGA against Al and hit 12 of them (5-15 from 3P). Minus Mitchell, who is a tough guard for everyone on the Cs, CLE was 6-18 (1-8 from 3P). That's certainly good enough to stay on the floor.

I'll repeat that I'm fairly certain BOS is okay with letting Mitchell be 1 on 1 versus Al as much as BOS can keep everyone else on CLE from scoring.

Minor side note from looking at the NBA data. You know how everyone was screaming how Mitchell was torching Al from 3P? According to NBA.com - Mitchell did not make two 3Ps in a row against Al - he went make / miss / make / miss / make / miss / make. I don't think many of us remember the game that way.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I know that lots of people were screaming at Al in the game thread. What I'm suggesting that is that what people perceive may not be reality.

I posted the matchup data against Al above. If you take out Mitchell and LaVert, NBA.com reports that Al gave up three buckets all game. One was to Mobley (4Q) on a transition dunk where Al was the nearest defender so he got charged. One was to Dean Wade, and I think we're all comfortable when Al matches up against Dean Wade so I'm not going to look at that play. The third was to Garland (4Q) when Garland beat Al off the dribble after faking a step-back, but Al also could have been expecting help.

The LaVert scores I spoke about above. So there's one, maybe two if you're going to count LaVert (I don't) where Al gets "blown by."

And as for Mitchell, he scored six buckets against Al, four of which were 3Ps so not blow-bys. The fifth (1Q) is where Mitchell got into the lane and hit a 9' half-floater/half-hook shot over Al after multiple pump fakes. The sixth (3Q) was where Mitchell did the reverse pivot turnaround that probably the only person in the world who could have defensed that is Wemby.

Maybe there are a few plays that NBA.com missed or there are a few plays where Al was in PnR and because he got beat someone else scored but according to NBA.com, CLE had 29 FGA against Al and hit 12 of them (5-15 from 3P). Minus Mitchell, who is a tough guard for everyone on the Cs, CLE was 6-18 (1-8 from 3P). That's certainly good enough to stay on the floor.

I'll repeat that I'm fairly certain BOS is okay with letting Mitchell be 1 on 1 versus Al as much as BOS can keep everyone else on CLE from scoring.

Minor side note from looking at the NBA data. You know how everyone was screaming how Mitchell was torching Al from 3P? According to NBA.com - Mitchell did not make two 3Ps in a row against Al - he went make / miss / make / miss / make / miss / make. I don't think many of us remember the game that way.

I think part of this is the assumption that Horford vs Mitchell one on one is a favorable outcome - I'm not sure that is true at scale, but I do think it is possible they believe it is....and possible they do not. Another part is whether we're looking at the whole game or not (you above are doing so, admirably).

To my eyes, they changed their approach to PnR in the second half (Jrue started to go around them, and they had a couple possessions where Horford dropped) specifically because they saw what many of us did in 2nd quarter. Any of us may disagree on that, obviously. Maybe that adjustment is sufficient; we'll see. The problem I've talked about was 2nd quarter into third only--because, to my eyes, they adjusted.

So, my take on this is they saw Mitchell burn Al in 2nd quarter and decided they didn't like the space he got on threes or his ability to get by Al, and so they changed up. And the question going forward is whether that is stable or not. If you don't think there was a problem there at all, that's not unreasonble either but it isn't what I saw.

 

[the moops]

Mitchell was cooking just about anyone that was on him in the first 3 quarters. Toasted Jrue on step backs twice, but he did seem to feast on the Horford switch more than anything. But man, did he chuck up some bad shots in the 4th

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042300203&PlayerID=1628378&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612739&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

 

[Auger34]

I think part of this is the assumption that Horford vs Mitchell one on one is a favorable outcome - I'm not sure that is true at scale, but I do think it is possible they believe it is....and possible they do not. Another part is whether we're looking at the whole game or not (you above are doing so, admirably).

To my eyes, they changed their approach to PnR in the second half (Jrue started to go around them, and they had a couple possessions where Horford dropped) specifically because they saw what many of us did in 2nd quarter. Any of us may disagree on that, obviously. Maybe that adjustment is sufficient; we'll see. The problem I've talked about was 2nd quarter into third only--because, to my eyes, they adjusted.

So, my take on this is they saw Mitchell burn Al in 2nd quarter and decided they didn't like the space he got on threes or his ability to get by Al, and so they changed up. And the question going forward is whether that is stable or not. If you don't think there was a problem there at all, that's not unreasonble either but it isn't what I saw.

Agreed 100% and I also noticed what you did.

I don't think that they think Al on Mitchell is a favorable outcome, I think that they just don't think it's a terrible outcome

 

[CapeCodYaz]

So I was listening to the Ringer's Boston sports podcast (Off the Pike w/Brian Barrett) and he made the point that Mitchell just destroyed Al Horford in game 3 when Al was switched onto him. He also noted that Horford's defense in isolations has slipped from the past 2 years. He has been one of the most frequently isolated defensive players in the league since coming back to Boston (in the first 2 years he was well above average in both regular season and playoffs). This year he was roughly league average during the regular season (52nd percentile).

I'm not sure, though, what that says about the Celtics defense in game 3. On the one hand, one might argue that the Celtics should not rely on a defense that allows Mitchell to repeatedly attack Horford. But, on the other hand, maybe the Celtics are playing rope-a-dope with Mitchell. Let him keep exploiting the favorable matchup but make sure that other guys aren't being left open for kickouts and other ways of generating offense.

In game 1, Mitchell scored 33 points through 3 quarters and then zero in the 4th.

In game 2, Mitchell scored 22 points through 3 quarters and 7 in the 4th, very proportional, but the 4th quarter was almost all garbage time.

In game 3, Mitchell scored 30 points through 3 quarters and just 3 in the 4th.

Maybe they need either the Celtics to play like crap or they need Mitchell to go off for 40+ in order to have a chance to win, and maybe Mitchell for whatever reason can't deliver that.

I do worry a bit about the minutes load on Al, but I don't think allowing him to be switched onto Mitchell a lot necessarily hurts the Celtics overall defense over the full course of a game.

centers should not be guarding opposing guards in open space

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Whether the Celtics simply believe Mitchell can't score enough by himself is an interesting one. If he gets 50, but they force the other guys to win one on one, is that enough? Maybe not enough if Celtics have an average-ish offensive output. Maybe that is their basic bet.

I have been of the view that Mitchell is one of the 6-8 guys who can put up enough points you can't just let him go, but I acknowledge it's possible they just don't think the rest of Cleveland is good enough vs Celtics D for it to matter even if Mitchell goes off. I don't see an advantage at the other 4 spots for Cleveland very often. So maybe that's it?

Always makes me nervous...but not crazy.

 

[lovegtm]

Whether the Celtics simply believe Mitchell can't score enough by himself is an interesting one. If he gets 50, but they force the other guys to win one on one, is that enough? Maybe not enough if Celtics have an average-ish offensive output. Maybe that is their basic bet.

I have been of the view that Mitchell is one of the 6-8 guys who can put up enough points you can't just let him go, but I acknowledge it's possible they just don't think the rest of Cleveland is good enough vs Celtics D for it to matter even if Mitchell goes off. I don't see an advantage at the other 4 spots for Cleveland very often. So maybe that's it?

Always makes me nervous...but not crazy.

The real answer is nuanced imo. The Celtics surely don't think that Mitchell will hit 70% of stepback 3s forever, but they also have to take him out of a comfort zone if he finds himself in one.

They probably adjusted Jrue to be more aggressive and get Horford in drop to nudge Mitchell out of that stepback rhythm, and then when Donovan went back to it later, he was tired/out of sync, and threw up some real bricks.

I think Joe has gotten better since last spring at making minor changes on the fly and not waiting for variance to even out, while also not whiplashing the team out of core defensive philosophies.

 

[Strike4]

Whether the Celtics simply believe Mitchell can't score enough by himself is an interesting one. If he gets 50, but they force the other guys to win one on one, is that enough? Maybe not enough if Celtics have an average-ish offensive output. Maybe that is their basic bet.

I have been of the view that Mitchell is one of the 6-8 guys who can put up enough points you can't just let him go, but I acknowledge it's possible they just don't think the rest of Cleveland is good enough vs Celtics D for it to matter even if Mitchell goes off. I don't see an advantage at the other 4 spots for Cleveland very often. So maybe that's it?

Always makes me nervous...but not crazy.

And also that Al is doing other stuff the Celtics value (more than the other options at least) and are willing to live with the tradeoff.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Mitchell was cooking just about anyone that was on him in the first 3 quarters. Toasted Jrue on step backs twice, but he did seem to feast on the Horford switch more than anything. But man, did he chuck up some bad shots in the 4th

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042300203&PlayerID=1628378&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612739&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

A mench in the game thread did my bidding and noticed Mitchell came up lame at the 9:40 mark of the 4th after slamming into LaVert on a rebound.

Dat calf.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

So, my take on this is they saw Mitchell burn Al in 2nd quarter and decided they didn't like the space he got on threes or his ability to get by Al, and so they changed up. And the question going forward is whether that is stable or not. If you don't think there was a problem there at all, that's not unreasonble either but it isn't what I saw.

So one other thing. You keep mentioning the 2Q. The Cs gave up 20 points in the 2Q. The Cavs made 8 shots. Here are the 8 shots they made (again, you can see most of this on NBA.com except the first bucket, which is unavailable and I had to go back to the game):

• Garland hits two shots.
  • First shot is a 9' footer from the right side of the lane for CLE's first basket of the quarter. He is coming up the right side; Mobley attempts to set a pick; Garland rejects the pick and drives; Horford is in front of him and PP is beside him; Garland pulls up and hits a 9' bank shot. H/t to Garland, BOS (I'm sure) will let Garland shoot all of these he wants).
  • Second shot was the ATO play where Strus enters the ball to Mobley at the FT line; Garland cuts off of this. Al was not involved in the defense (JT was guarding Mobley and DW was guarding Garland).
• Mobley had two dunks.
  • 1st dunk was a PnR with Garland. Al goes to take Garland and DW doesn't get back to Mobley quick enough. Jrue also doesn't help for the corner. Not really Al's fault since they are switching (I presume; I'll note that Al looked exasperated after this play).
  • 2nd dunk was Strus driving to the lane and kicking to Mobley. Mobley drove and Strus was kind of there. Al took it as a pick and switched on to Strus. JT took a step towards Strus and then it was too late to guard the driving Mobley. I'm chalking this one up to communication issues.
• Mitchell had four buckets
  • 1st was step back 3P over Al after switch
  • 2nd was step back 3P over Hauser after double-pick and switch
  • 3rd was the prayer 12 foot floater he threw up because he thought he got fouled; JB was closest defender
  • 4th was step back 3P over DW that was simply just a great 1 on 1 move.

That's what I mean by perception not really meeting reality. No one really burned Al in the 2Q. If BOS could play this level of defense for the rest of the playoffs, they will be hoisting another banner.

A lot of people said out loud that Al was cooked. The data doesn't seem to support that.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

So one other thing. You keep mentioning the 2Q. The Cs gave up 20 points in the 2Q. The Cavs made 8 shots. Here are the 8 shots they made (again, you can see most of this on NBA.com except the first bucket, which is unavailable and I had to go back to the game):

• Garland hits two shots.
  • First shot is a 9' footer from the right side of the lane for CLE's first basket of the quarter. He is coming up the right side; Mobley attempts to set a pick; Garland rejects the pick and drives; Horford is in front of him and PP is beside him; Garland pulls up and hits a 9' bank shot. H/t to Garland, BOS (I'm sure) will let Garland shoot all of these he wants).
  • Second shot was the ATO play where Strus enters the ball to Mobley at the FT line; Garland cuts off of this. Al was not involved in the defense (JT was guarding Mobley and DW was guarding Garland).
• Mobley had two dunks.
  • 1st dunk was a PnR with Garland. Al goes to take Garland and DW doesn't get back to Mobley quick enough. Jrue also doesn't help for the corner. Not really Al's fault since they are switching (I presume; I'll note that Al looked exasperated after this play).
  • 2nd dunk was Strus driving to the lane and kicking to Mobley. Mobley drove and Strus was kind of there. Al took it as a pick and switched on to Strus. JT took a step towards Strus and then it was too late to guard the driving Mobley. I'm chalking this one up to communication issues.
• Mitchell had four buckets
  • 1st was step back 3P over Al after switch
  • 2nd was step back 3P over Hauser after double-pick and switch
  • 3rd was the prayer 12 foot floater he threw up because he thought he got fouled; JB was closest defender
  • 4th was step back 3P over DW that was simply just a great 1 on 1 move.

That's what I mean by perception not really meeting reality. No one really burned Al in the 2Q. If BOS could play this level of defense for the rest of the playoffs, they will be hoisting another banner.

A lot of people said out loud that Al was cooked. The data doesn't seem to support that.

So, I don't think Al is cooked and don't think I was one of those who said that. But I do think Al struggled a lot in a number of those switches in first half in particular. I also noted in game thread that the D overall for the last three quarters was very good. So nothing above is a surprise to me---or even inconsistent.

You keep trying to make this into a 'good or bad' and I continue to see, and describe, more nuance than that. Al is a good defensive player; Al also struggles in space.
Just to check- do you not think Al got beat a number of times - both guys getting by him and being unable to get out to a shooter (generally Mitchell?)

 

[lovegtm]

Just to check- do you not think Al got beat a number of times - both guys getting by him and being unable to get out to a shooter (generally Mitchell?)

I think this is his point, and I think the data mostly supports it. You can argue for making Mitchell a bit more uncomfortable, which they did later, but Horford wasn't having trouble getting out to him. Mitchell was making really tough shots over good contests, and not beating Horford to the rim often.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

A lot of people said out loud that Al was cooked. The data doesn't seem to support that.

I've only lightly skimmed the last couple of pages, apologies if this doesn't reflect something relevant

I haven't called Al "cooked" although he appears materially physically diminished from 3-4 years ago. And I'm going 100% by the eye test, with no stats to back that up. So, open to what other evidence (stats, video clips, etc.) say

To my eye, Al's reduced response time, burst, and vertical show up most noticeably when he's in help defense and being asked to control the defensive glass. He used to be able to both a play in a much wider radius around him, and it wasn't usual for him to come across the lane from the weak side help position to affect dribble penetration. Now, a much larger amount of the time, he doesn't that thing where he watches guys go the hoop but doesn't do much to bother the shot. He also tends to get rebounds that come directly to him, but much less often the rest.

I don't really have a great sense of how much has changed with his point-of-attack defense, beyond the sense that the guy who used to keep Giannis and Embiid from scoring when he played them 1:1, isn't that anymore

I think the only time this series I felt like the Cavs were really successfully going at Al was in game 2, especially when Mobley isolated him in the low post on several possessions. Game 3 this didn't seem to be nearly as much of a problem, even thought folks had spent 48 hours complaining about Al before the game, so everyone was maybe primed for this narrative

 

[lovegtm]

I was there. I don't agree with this at all. Not even a little.

Maybe the broadcast decision to turn down crowd threw me off. It felt REALLY dead on TV, but I stand corrected.

 

[kfoss99]

Maybe the broadcast decision to turn down crowd threw me off. It felt REALLY dead on TV, but I stand corrected.

I've been listening to the games on the radio and the crowds are mic'd a lot hotter for the radio broadcast. Local, ESPN, TNT, it doesn't matter they all have the crowd noise turned down.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Whether the Celtics simply believe Mitchell can't score enough by himself is an interesting one. If he gets 50, but they force the other guys to win one on one, is that enough? Maybe not enough if Celtics have an average-ish offensive output. Maybe that is their basic bet.

I have been of the view that Mitchell is one of the 6-8 guys who can put up enough points you can't just let him go, but I acknowledge it's possible they just don't think the rest of Cleveland is good enough vs Celtics D for it to matter even if Mitchell goes off. I don't see an advantage at the other 4 spots for Cleveland very often. So maybe that's it?

Always makes me nervous...but not crazy.

I was having this discussion earlier. If you make Mitchell work hard for 50, do you have faith that you can limit the rest of the team to 50 or less? That was pretty much how 1H of g3 played out, where it was Mitchell at about 50% of the team points (23/48 I think?)

 

[PedroKsBambino]

From ESPN today:

It's hard to blame him. Horford, three weeks shy of his 38th birthday and in his 17th NBA season, played 40 minutes in Game 3. He finished 1-for-7 from the field -- including 0-for-6 from 3-point range -- and struggled to defend drives. That was especially noticeable when getting switched onto Mitchell; the Cavaliers are averaging 1.64 points per direct pick on 30 on-ball screens when Mitchell is the ball handler and Horford is the screener defender, per ESPN's Stats & Information.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40135992/2024-nba-playoffs-keys-pivotal-game-4s-celtics-cavaliers-thunder-mavs

As always, YMMV....

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I was having this discussion earlier. If you make Mitchell work hard for 50, do you have faith that you can limit the rest of the team to 50 or less? That was pretty much how 1H of g3 played out, where it was Mitchell at about 50% of the team points (23/48 I think?)

Yes 100%. If you make Mitchell work hard, deep into the shot clock, and he still gets 50….that will limit both the number of possessions for the Cavs and the number of scoring opportunities for his teammates. It would look similar to last game except even more extreme.

 

[the moops]

A mench in the game thread did my bidding and noticed Mitchell came up lame at the 9:40 mark of the 4th after slamming into LaVert on a rebound.

Dat calf.

Can sort of see him get hit here https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=450&GameID=0042300203&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=LeVert REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)

Subsequent play down the floor he never makes it beyond half court https://nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=451&GameID=0042300203&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Horford S.FOUL (P3.T1) (J.Williams)

 

[Leon Trotsky]

Maybe the broadcast decision to turn down crowd threw me off. It felt REALLY dead on TV, but I stand corrected.

No worries. I go to a fair number of games and the Garden is almost always rocking, even for late January midweek games against the Hawks or whatever. The crowd so far have been pretty normally boisterous for the playoffs and definitely into it.

I don't think the game 2 losses have anything more doing than the C's losing a little hype from the opening game and losing attention to detail and connectedness on defense. This team seems really good about refocusing after it happens though, both during the games and game to game. I have been very encouraged by that.

 

[lovegtm]

No worries. I go to a fair number of games and the Garden is almost always rocking, even for late January midweek games against the Hawks or whatever. The crowd so far have been pretty normally boisterous for the playoffs and definitely into it.

I don't think the game 2 losses have anything more doing than the C's losing a little hype from the opening game and losing attention to detail and connectedness on defense. This team seems really good about refocusing after it happens though, both during the games and game to game. I have been very encouraged by that.

Nice firsthand experience. Agree w ability to refocus.