Round 2: Celtics vs. Bucks

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    126
  • Poll closed .

tims4wins

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Re-watched the game this morning, if anything I felt like the Bucks were fortunate to only lose by 20 despite the FT discrepancy. That could have easily been 30+
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Re Milwaukee going to small lineups: they probably will have to try it at some point, but it takes away a lot of what they do well, because Bledsoe, Brown and Hill aren’t scaring anyone as shooters, and you can close out really hard on Hill and Brown, because they won’t burn you off the catch.

If Milwaukee has to go to those lineups, it’s a big win for Boston, just because of the massive talent differential it creates.
I think our wing heavy lineup would run Bledsoe off the court if they went with Giannis at the 5. He's just way too small to defend the Jays and/or Hayward. Even Morris.
 

Devizier

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If Milwaukee wants to drop Brook Lopez for more Tony Snell or DJ Wilson that is a huge fucking victory for the Celtics

Just writing this is a good reminder of Brogdon's importance to the Bucks.
 

DJnVa

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With a healthy Hayward, it becomes even harder to defend. This is an awful matchup for the Bucks defense.
This was talked about on NBA Radio this morning. If the Celtics are moving the ball, they will pretty much always be able to get the ball to someone that can attack the Milwaukee's 3rd or 4th best defender. And you're attacking that player with a Tatum or Brown or Hayward or Horford or even Irving on a switch. That's crazy.

Hell--Morris against a team's 3rd or 4th best defender is a good matchup.
 

lovegtm

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This was talked about on NBA Radio this morning. If the Celtics are moving the ball, they will pretty much always be able to get the ball to someone that can attack the Milwaukee's 3rd or 4th best defender. And you're attacking that player with a Tatum or Brown or Hayward or Horford or even Irving on a switch. That's crazy.

Hell--Morris against a team's 3rd or 4th best defender is a good matchup.
Morris was really impressive playmaking against closeouts.
 

JCizzle

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I'm glad that you mentioned that. I was impressed a few times by his passing yesterday, and I can't ever remember thinking that before. Good shit.
Agreed, when he's moving the ball he's such a dangerous player. Shame he doesn't play like that more consistently
 

Bad Penny

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I would like to see CBS run a couple of plays early for Tatum. An efficient and locked in on defense JT is a big part of the C's advantage going forward.
 

Gash Prex

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I think it’s great the Celtics won game 1 and there is a lot of positives - but the story that Cs have figured them out seems way overblown. The NBA media seems to swing wildly based on outcomes of one game ( See Orlando and Nets)

The Bucks were the best team in the NBA this season.

The Cs have a great shot at winning game 2 - but let’s not all be shocked when the Bucks win game 2 and non stop stories about Giannis greatness are written
 

lovegtm

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I think it’s great the Celtics won game 1 and there is a lot of positives - but the story that Cs have figured them out seems way overblown. The NBA media seems to swing wildly based on outcomes of one game ( See Orlando and Nets)

The Bucks were the best team in the NBA this season.

The Cs have a great shot at winning game 2 - but let’s not all be shocked when the Bucks win game 2 and non stop stories about Giannis greatness are written
I agree that people overreact, but I’d also argue that people weight NBA regular season success WAY too heavily. The last Bud team to win 60 stumbled through two rounds against mediocre teams before getting trashed in the conference finals.

Skepticism about the Bucks is completely warranted imo: after Giannis, they have by far the least talent of the Houston, GSW, Boston, Toronto group. (I’m assuming Toronto beats Philly in 5).
 

mcpickl

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We were definitely making our shots which naturall slows down the tempo but I’m referring mostly to the strategic action regardless of the ball going through the hoop. We were retreating multiple players on nearly every shot or penetration. The 3 offensive rebounds we had in this game occurred by accident and not design.
Agreed

They'll have to stick to this and not slip for even single possessions.

It helps that Horford is usually on the perimeter above the break on offense.

Gives him a much shorter distance to cover than the average big man. Giannis will rarely beat Horford up the floor.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm glad that you mentioned that. I was impressed a few times by his passing yesterday, and I can't ever remember thinking that before. Good shit.
I'd second that. I'm a Morris - hater, but a couple of times he totally shocked me with great passes. The one to Rozier, and the one to Baynes (who was fouled, I think) made my jaw drop.
 

tbrown_01923

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I'd second that. I'm a Morris - hater, but a couple of times he totally shocked me with great passes. The one to Rozier, and the one to Baynes (who was fouled, I think) made my jaw drop.
Yeah - and he attacked off of the dribble. He had a very good game.
 

Imbricus

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I'd second that. I'm a Morris - hater, but a couple of times he totally shocked me with great passes. The one to Rozier, and the one to Baynes (who was fouled, I think) made my jaw drop.
Yes, I recall that one to Baynes. It was like a no-look underhand shovel pass underneath, if I remember correctly. I don't think I've ever seen Mook pass the ball to anyone when he's that close to the basket. Very smart, unselfish pass.
 

benhogan

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I'd second that. I'm a Morris - hater, but a couple of times he totally shocked me with great passes. The one to Rozier, and the one to Baynes (who was fouled, I think) made my jaw drop.
I have a feeling MaMo played on an injured knee the 2nd half of the season
 

the moops

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Theis has been pretty bad defensively for a while now. He is not quick enough or strong enough. I would be tempted to give any non-Horford and non-Baynes time to Semi
 

HomeRunBaker

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According to this the Bucks aren't making any adjustments.



Bucks fully on the "It's not 1 pm start!!" train.

I kid HRB.


From the article:

Shifting to the Milwaukee viewpoint I tend to agree with Bud. The only "adjustments" I'd expect is his players to show more passion and more urgency in pushing the pace to get Giannis downhill prior to the defense being fully engaged in a halfcourt set. We were prepared for a playoff game on Sunday while the Bucks looked lethargic and disengaged really for the entire game. I don't expect Bledsoe, Connaughton, and Ilyasova to shoot a combined 1-16 behind the arc again either.

I wagered on the Under full (mock the noon Midwest $tart all you want) and the Celtics 1/2 in G1 but feel the numbers are about right in this one so I'll be passing while wearing my Joe Forte chain around my neck. and clapping from the sidelines.
 

Rook05

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Theis has been pretty bad defensively for a while now. He is not quick enough or strong enough. I would be tempted to give any non-Horford and non-Baynes time to Semi
I completely agrees with this. However, I’d expect all three of Baynes/Semi/Theis as Giannis has more success getting to the line tonight.
 

Jimbodandy

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I completely agrees with this. However, I’d expect all three of Baynes/Semi/Theis as Giannis has more success getting to the line tonight.
Wouldn't rule out a few TL minutes if the game is called tightly. He doesn't know where to be, but he gets there fast. Basically the opposite of Theis and gimpy Baynes. Plus who cares if he wastes a few fouls on Giannis. Yabu is the wrong play here, IMO. He's basically worse Theis in this game.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I completely agrees with this. However, I’d expect all three of Baynes/Semi/Theis as Giannis has more success getting to the line tonight.
I said it in the gamethread Sunday but I don't care if Giannis spends the whole game at the line. That just slows the pace and takes the ball out of their shooters' hands. Plus he can be a bit of a stone mason from the line at times. Only 5-10 on Sunday and 73% for the year.
 

benhogan

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Theis has been pretty bad defensively for a while now. He is not quick enough or strong enough. I would be tempted to give any non-Horford and non-Baynes time to Semi
IF Baynes is out...When Horford is off the floor, it will probably be a mix of Theis/Semi, like we saw after AB was injured on Sunday

What defensive metric shows us that Theis has been bad defensively for a while now? Daniel looked solid on Sunday, his defensive metrics have been good this season, he's capable of rolling to the basket or hitting a 3 if left wide open...for a 3rd string center the Theis dislike here is bizarre.

Unfortunately, TL didn't get enough minutes this season to see if he could be an effective defensive stopper in short spurts. I agree with some that he could have been a defensive weapon under the right circumstances. I doubt TL sees minutes unless its a blowout.

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season
 

amarshal2

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Shifting to the Milwaukee viewpoint I tend to agree with Bud. The only "adjustments" I'd expect is his players to show more passion and more urgency in pushing the pace to get Giannis downhill prior to the defense being fully engaged in a halfcourt set. We were prepared for a playoff game on Sunday while the Bucks looked lethargic and disengaged really for the entire game. I don't expect Bledsoe, Connaughton, and Ilyasova to shoot a combined 1-16 behind the arc again either.

I wagered on the Under full (mock the noon Midwest $tart all you want) and the Celtics 1/2 in G1 but feel the numbers are about right in this one so I'll be passing while wearing my Joe Forte chain around my neck. and clapping from the sidelines.
On averaged the Bucks attempted 38.2 3's per game at a .353 clip.
In G1 the Bucks attempted 39 3's at a .333 clip.

Had they made one more 3 they would have beaten their season average. Their best three point shooter (by a LOT) is injured. The Bucks are a below average three point shooting team. The Celtics are above average at defending the three, allowing .344 during the regular season (when they apparently never tried to play defense). Edit: Also, can the Celtics please encourage Bledsoe, Connaughton, and Ilyasova to bomb threes liberally? They combined for a weighted average .334% during the regular season -- the same as the Bucks shot as a team in G1.

I see zero reason to expect different outcomes from behind the arc.

I absolutely love that the Bucks are going with the same game plan. I fully expect Giannis to be better but for the most part I think it's a major mistake. The Celtics are a bad match-up for them and they should be looking to adjust ASAP.
 
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Captaincoop

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It's one thing for the Bucks to go with the same game plan offensively and just hope Giannis gets going and more open shots fall. Going with the same plan defensively is suicide. I haven't seen the Celtics get that many open looks in a long time.
 

the moops

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It's one thing for the Bucks to go with the same game plan offensively and just hope Giannis gets going and more open shots fall. Going with the same plan defensively is suicide. I haven't seen the Celtics get that many open looks in a long time.
I am quite sure they are not going to do the exact same thing. We shouldn't expect coaches to ever say anything but complete bullshit in these instances
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's one thing for the Bucks to go with the same game plan offensively and just hope Giannis gets going and more open shots fall. Going with the same plan defensively is suicide. I haven't seen the Celtics get that many open looks in a long time.
There is a difference between game plan and effort. Defensively they coasted for most of the game Sunday which I would expect to change tonight.
 

amarshal2

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I am quite sure they are not going to do the exact same thing. We shouldn't expect coaches to ever say anything but complete bullshit in these instances
I’m not sure Bud is bluffing. He doesn’t have much of a track record here to support him in the playoffs. Brad is getting them prepared for different looks no matter what.
 

TripleOT

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The Bucks shot 37.2% from three in last year's series, 33.6% in losses, and 40% in wins, FWIW.
 

benhogan

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On averaged the Bucks attempted 38.2 3's per game at a .353 clip.
In G1 the Bucks attempted 39 3's at a .333 clip.

Had they made one more 3 they would have beaten their season average. Their best three point shooter (by a LOT) is injured. The Bucks are a below average three point shooting team. The Celtics are above average at defending the three, allowing .344 during the regular season (when they apparently never tried to play defense). Edit: Also, can the Celtics please encourage Bledsoe, Connaughton, and Ilyasova to bomb threes liberally? They combined for a weighted average .334% during the regular season -- the same as the Bucks shot as a team in G1.

I see zero reason to expect different outcomes from behind the arc.

I absolutely love that the Bucks are going with the same game plan. I fully expect Giannis to be better but for the most part I think it's a major mistake. The Celtics are a bad match-up for them and they should be looking to adjust ASAP.
100% agree here. The Bucks 3pt shooting is taking a major hit without Brogdon.

PLUS the Celtics will continue to run the Horford/Kyrie pick n pop on Brook Lopez. I expect it will be more efficient as this series continues. Brad was extremely focused on keeping Al Horford on the floor with Brook Lopez.

Q1 7:04 Lopez leaves game / Horford also leaves game
Q1 5:08 Lopez re-enters game / Horford re-enters the game

start of Q2 Horford plays first 2:30 without Lopez on floor
Q2 9:30 Horford leaves the game at the first break
Q2 6:25 Lopez re-enters game / Horford also re-enters the game
Q2 3:20 Horford leaves game
Q2 :48 Lopez leaves game

Q3 both Lopez and Horford start the 2nd half
Q3 6:03 Lopez leaves game in the middle of Horford's FTs
Q3 3:11 Horford leaves the game at next break

start of Q4 Lopez and Horford both re-enter the game
Q4 6:38 Lopez removed from the game (Bucks down 20pts)
Q4 4:48 Horford leaves game (Bucks down 23pts - Game Over)

As long as the Bucks continue to play Lopez big minutes, Brad will stick Horford on the floor with him and exploit that mismatch.

This is a bad match-up for the Bucks regardless if the game starts at 1pm or 7pm :redwine:
 
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benhogan

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Good eye on Horford/Lopez. I hadn’t realized it was so explicit.
I was much more focused on "who's guarding Giannis" during the game. BUT after watching the playback on NBAtv, I noticed it.

In 4 games vs. the Celtics this season, Lopez has averaged 4.5pts/gm. If Horford starts scoring in bunches on Lopez, Coach Bud should consider decreasing his minutes
 

amarshal2

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In a funny twist Lopez and his 3 points, 0 assists, and 3 boards on 1/5 shooting was the only Buck with a positive net rating at +2 in 25 minutes. Every other player who exceeded 20 minutes was -11 or worse. On a per minute basis Pat C’s -21 in 24 mins was the worst of the worst.
 

lovegtm

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In a funny twist Lopez and his 3 points, 0 assists, and 3 boards on 1/5 shooting was the only Buck with a positive net rating at +2 in 25 minutes. Every other player who exceeded 20 minutes was -11 or worse. On a per minute basis Pat C’s -21 in 24 mins was the worst of the worst.
Yeah, that was because he was on the floor when Mirotic went off. Single game +/- for the win!
 

InstaFace

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Well, that sucked a rusty pipe. What's the start time of game 3? :D

Things looked pretty coin-flippy at 71-75. Next thing you knew, we were chucking forever, it was the start of the 4th and it was 73-98.
 

TripleOT

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In a funny twist Lopez and his 3 points, 0 assists, and 3 boards on 1/5 shooting was the only Buck with a positive net rating at +2 in 25 minutes. Every other player who exceeded 20 minutes was -11 or worse. On a per minute basis Pat C’s -21 in 24 mins was the worst of the worst.
Also funny is Lopez was a minus 12 when his team won by 21 points. 10 points on 10 shots, 3-8 from distance.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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42.6% from three vs 33.3% in game one - that is ~ seven more made threes or 21 points and the difference in this game.

Its not that simple of course but if the C's can induce the Bucks to revert back to their 35.3% season shooting, they are a lot closer.
 

HomeRunBaker

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42.6% from three vs 33.3% in game one - that is ~ seven more made threes or 21 points and the difference in this game.

Its not that simple of course but if the C's can induce the Bucks to revert back to their 35.3% season shooting, they are a lot closer.
If the Bucks shot 34% tonight from 3 that is only a diff of 4 and 12 points......when the benches were emptied it was a 30 point game. Let’s not fool ourselves into believing we lost because the Bucks were unconscious behind the arc. The difference was the extended 3Q stretch when we couldn’t make a shot while being lackadaisical in retreating back on defense. To me the most crucial element to slowing down the Bucks offense is transition defense and of course making shots helps in this regard.....in the 3Q we did neither.