Round 2: Celtics vs. Bucks

[benhogan]

@benhogan, I think you may end up disappointed with Baynes’ playing time in this series. There’s a good chance that the Celtics keep max shooting on the floor at all times when Lopez is out there, to try and negate the massive positive effects he has on MIL’s offense, and maybe even run him off the floor in the ideal scenario.

If that’s not working, I’d guess we’ll see Baynes out there setting lots of perimeter screens, but the 5-out lineups we saw to close the Pacers games are very promising as an antidote to what the Bucks do.

Ha, whatever works. I agree Brad will play small a lot. We'll probably get a combined 20mpg* of Baynes and Theis at most in this series (post #102 above). In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Brad started Hayward or Semi instead of Baynes. If the Celtics can get Lopez off the floor by moving the ball and hitting open 3s with Hayward instead of Baynes, GREAT. The Bucks offense is much more efficient with Brook Lopez, so getting him off the floor helps.

* AB was playing injured during the Pacer series. If he isn't 100%, he can't hustle and becomes a below average player. He should be benched, so 20mpg should only happen with a healthy AB.

 

[benhogan]

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere: Brogdon is OUT for Games 1 and 2, will be reassessed after that.

Link: https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/04/milwaukee-bucks-guard-malcolm-brogdon-will-miss-games-1-and-2-vs-boston-celtics.html

I think the Cs need to win one of those first two games. If they go down 2-0 and the Bucks add Brogdon in Game 3, that would be a tough hole to climb out of heading back to Boston.

Brogdon out is HUGE. This should move the Vegas money line a bit.

Bucks advanced offensive rating / defensive rating / net rating

Starting 5 w/Brogdon (597 mins) 110.7 / 104.5 / 6.2
Starting 5 w/S.Brown (128 mins) 93.6 / 106.3 / -12.7

They played better with Pat Connaughton with the starting group.
107.5 / 98.8 / 8.7

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&TeamID=1610612749

 

[HomeRunBaker]

@benhogan, I think you may end up disappointed with Baynes’ playing time in this series. There’s a good chance that the Celtics keep max shooting on the floor at all times when Lopez is out there, to try and negate the massive positive effects he has on MIL’s offense, and maybe even run him off the floor in the ideal scenario.

If that’s not working, I’d guess we’ll see Baynes out there setting lots of perimeter screens, but the 5-out lineups we saw to close the Pacers games are very promising as an antidote to what the Bucks do.

I agree with Baynes limited playing time but to me it isn’t about keeping max shooting on the floor but rather for transition defense which is critical to slowing down the Bucks secondary break to keep them in a half court structured set as much as possible.

 

[lovegtm]

I agree with Baynes limited playing time but to me it isn’t about keeping max shooting on the floor but rather for transition defense which is critical to slowing down the Bucks secondary break to keep them in a half court structured set as much as possible.

I agree that the Celtics will be heavily drilling transition D this week, as they did last year to slow down Simmons.

But if transition D is the #1 priority, wouldn’t you play Baynes more? That’s one of his big strengths: he was the primary guy hustling back to the FT line every game against Philly and building a wall against Simmons.

 

[benhogan]

I agree with Baynes limited playing time but to me it isn’t about keeping max shooting on the floor but rather for transition defense which is critical to slowing down the Bucks secondary break to keep them in a half court structured set as much as possible.

Does a healthy Baynes struggle to get back on defense in transition? I haven't noticed that being a problem. If that was an issue you'd think that would show up on his defensive #s. Probably one of the many reasons why MaMo's defensive metrics blow. Now that's a dude that loafs struggles getting back in transition D.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I agree that the Celtics will be heavily drilling transition D this week, as they did last year to slow down Simmons.

But if transition D is the #1 priority, wouldn’t you play Baynes more? That’s one of his big strengths: he was the primary guy hustling back to the FT line every game against Philly and building a wall against Simmons.

If it was a straight race to the FT line without other responsibilities sure but to stop the Bucks secondary break you need your defenders to identify who is filling lanes and spotting up while having ability to move laterally in response......on top of having same lateral agility to slow down a downhill Giannis.

 

[benhogan]

How to defend Giannis?
1st option: Al Horford
2nd option: Semi Ojeleye
3rd option: mix it up with Brown, Hayward, traps & doubles...and
avoid Marcus Morris Sr.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/4/25/18515763/the-whole-greater-than-the-sum-of-the-parts-how-the-boston-celtics-guard-giannis-antetokounmpo-nba

 

[lovegtm]

Great video analysis of Celtics/Bucks here, a lot more granular than most of my blathering. Milwaukee’s various counters to pick-n-pop are pretty interesting:

 

[lovegtm]

The thing that gives me a little more hope in this series (I picked Bucks in 6) is that Brad is at his best coaching when he’s in an underdog position, and has to get creative and maximize edges.

I’m optimistic that he’ll be quicker to adjust than he otherwise would be, and will also push any edge to the extreme, rather than stubbornly sticking to principles.

 

[benhogan]

The thing that gives me a little more hope in this series (I picked Bucks in 6) is that Brad is at his best coaching when he’s in an underdog position, and has to get creative and maximize edges.

I’m optimistic that he’ll be quicker to adjust than he otherwise would be, and will also push any edge to the extreme, rather than stubbornly sticking to principles.

good video from @scoutwithbrian...thanks

Yep like Brad in that coaching underdog role, in-game adjustments. ALSO like that the Celtics had a week to prepare for MIL, form several game plans, team practice, have Hayward progress, Horford/Baynes heal, Smart feeling better and Brogdon out (has he been practicing this week?). With Game 6 in Boston, I think its either Celtics in 6 or Bucks in 7.

 

[tims4wins]

Lowe with his series preview. Almost picks the Celts but goes with Bucks in 7

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/zachlowe26613193/preview-boston-celtics-milwaukee-bucks-playoff-series

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

 

[mauf]

Brogdon out is HUGE. This should move the Vegas money line a bit.

Bucks advanced offensive rating / defensive rating / net rating

Starting 5 w/Brogdon (597 mins) 110.7 / 104.5 / 6.2
Starting 5 w/S.Brown (128 mins) 93.6 / 106.3 / -12.7

They played better with Pat Connaughton with the starting group.
107.5 / 98.8 / 8.7

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&TeamID=1610612749

Consensus line on today’s game is still 7.5, with C’s money line somewhere between +260 and +280 range at most books. So I’m guessing Vegas had already priced in Brogdon missing the early part of this series.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Consensus line on today’s game is still 7.5, with C’s money line somewhere between +260 and +280 range at most books. So I’m guessing Vegas had already priced in Brogdon missing the early part of this series.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/

As far as I've know the most optimistic report I've seen was he could "possibly return by end of series"...…..guys like Brogdon don't move numbers though. Even Blake Griffin's status moved the Pistons half a point to a point in G1 and G3.

 

[benhogan]

Consensus line on today’s game is still 7.5, with C’s money line somewhere between +260 and +280 range at most books. So I’m guessing Vegas had already priced in Brogdon missing the early part of this series.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/

I'm thrilled Brogdon is out, guess it's not that important relative to playing other starters/Sterling Brown/Connaughton/Snell/Mirotic slightly more minutes. Bucks bench is solid.

At the end of the day, Smart and Brogdon probably cancel each other out

for whatever it's worth, Brogdon did have a poor playoff performance vs the Celts last year

 

[Red Averages]

I actually took +7.5, the money line +275, and a parlay of +7.5 and under 224 for Game 1. Hopefully we can steal one of the first two.

Statement win.

Horford in Giannis’s head already. Celtics doing an amazing job building the wall/packing the paint and the Bucks don’t have an answer for shooting 3s yet. They shot 36% from 3 today and got blown out. Will be fascinating to see how they try to adjust, but this is clearly the best the Celtics have played all year.

On offense I love the spacing the Celtics are creating, which really allows them to isolate matchup mismatches and get a lot of open shots. Even during the huge run for the Bucks, the Celtics had 5-6 open shots that they missed. Bucks can’t defend the pick and roll (as we knew heading in).

Bring on Game 2.

 

[benhogan]

How to defend Giannis?
1st option: Al Horford
2nd option: Semi Ojeleye Aron Baynes
3rd option: mix it up with Brown, Hayward, traps & doubles...and
avoid Marcus Morris Sr.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/4/25/18515763/the-whole-greater-than-the-sum-of-the-parts-how-the-boston-celtics-guard-giannis-antetokounmpo-nba

None of us, myself included, saw Brad sticking Baynes on Giannis and it working. Just hope AB is OK after twisting his ankle.

 

[DJnVa]

Do we change things in hopes that Bucks adjust to game 1? Or keep it rolling?

 

[TripleOT]

To me there's a talent disparity between the Celtics and Bucks. Milwaukee may have the best player in Giannis, but his game is not fully well rounded, and what he does extremely well, getting to the basket, can be blunted by the Celtics. Middleton is a nice player, but ranking the players, I got:

Giannis
Kyrie
AL
Middleton
Tatum
Brown
Hayward

If you have five of the best seven players in a series, you should win it. I'm not a believer in Bledsoe, but ever if one was, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez, a couple of recycled Euros, and a couple of generic wings isn't a great supporting cast. Milwaukee has a roster that can win a lot of regular season games, where team aren't locked in on stopping transition and paint play. For the playoffs, I don't think they have enough top end talent. To beat the Celtics, they need to shoot the ball really well, and hope the Celtics dont. Boston got whatever shot it wanted, while nothing was easy for the Bucks in game 1.

 

[benhogan]

Do we change things in hopes that Bucks adjust to game 1? Or keep it rolling?

Change nothing, let the Bucks react to the Celtics 5 wide (credit to lovegtm and HRB for that call)

Starting MaMo over Baynes was clearly the right move by Brad. Especially if Aron's ankle is ok to physically guard Giannis for 12-15mpg off the bench, backing up Horford.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

That was an absolute clinic on both ends of the floor.

 

[Red Averages]

Celtics +7
+220 moneyline
O/U 220.

Vegas barely budged the line for game 2. Seems like a easy bet but we know the Bucks are going to treat it like a must win and the refs will likely give them a few calls. 7pm crowd vs noon will give them a bit more of a home court advantage.

Haven’t decided if I’ll take it, but parlaying +7 and the under again seems like a sensible strategy given if the game is low it’ll be playing into the Celtics style again (you’d think).

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Edit: wrong thread.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Do we change things in hopes that Bucks adjust to game 1? Or keep it rolling?

We could change it to another Noon start for the Bucks, Giannis, and their crowd.

We did our job in taking advantage of the scheduling. I expect the Bucks to return to normal on Tuesday night with a comfortable win.

 

[Red Averages]

We could change it to another Noon start for the Bucks, Giannis, and their crowd.

We did our job in taking advantage of the scheduling. I expect the Bucks to return to normal on Tuesday night with a comfortable win.

Both teams had the same schedule. Both teams had ample rest. One team dominated 45 out of 48 minutes. The Bucks should be favored to win game 2, but let’s not act like this was only from a noon start.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

We could change it to another Noon start for the Bucks, Giannis, and their crowd.

We did our job in taking advantage of the scheduling. I expect the Bucks to return to normal on Tuesday night with a comfortable win.

Lol oh man. Never change HRB.

Celtics outclassed them. In every aspect of the game.

Must have been the time for tip off.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Anybody else like the Baynes on Giannis look? Just more length and weight grinding on him for a few minutes a game. Whoever said keep the cast of characters guarding him ever changing was right. Let him shoot from 3. Also thought tatum looked out matched by middleton when the C's had the ball...

 

[DJnVa]

 

[lovegtm]

Anybody else like the Baynes on Giannis look? Just more length and weight grinding on him for a few minutes a game. Whoever said keep the cast of characters guarding him ever changing was right. Let him shoot from 3. Also thought tatum looked out matched by middleton when the C's had the ball...

Giving Horford or Baynes primary Giannis responsibility, and staggering them, makes sure that
a) you have enough fouls to go around
b) can keep 4 quick guys/shooters on the floor to exploit Lopez/Ilyasova/Mirotic
c) everyone else can stay in the same scheme of selectively helping and stunting on to Giannis, so you give guys a simple, repeatable task.

This was a great job by Brad of having a clear, simple gameplan, and a better job by the players of executing better than they have all year on the defensive end.

 

[johnmd20]

Statement win.

Horford in Giannis’s head already. Celtics doing an amazing job building the wall/packing the paint and the Bucks don’t have an answer for shooting 3s yet. They shot 36% from 3 today and got blown out. Will be fascinating to see how they try to adjust, but this is clearly the best the Celtics have played all year.

On offense I love the spacing the Celtics are creating, which really allows them to isolate matchup mismatches and get a lot of open shots. Even during the huge run for the Bucks, the Celtics had 5-6 open shots that they missed. Bucks can’t defend the pick and roll (as we knew heading in).

Bring on Game 2.

Nice bet, pal. That was pretty solid.

 

[benhogan]

Anybody else like the Baynes on Giannis look? Just more length and weight grinding on him for a few minutes a game. Whoever said keep the cast of characters guarding him ever changing was right. Let him shoot from 3. Also thought tatum looked out matched by middleton when the C's had the ball...

Thank's for teeing this up, think I'll pull out my driver and send this 300 yards down the middle.

like it?

no, loved it. Dominant performance. 9 minutes of Aron Baynes guarding Giannis ISO. The one dunk Giannis had on AB was the byproduct of MaMo not rotating over to help. Not only did AB shut Giannis down, but he also clogged the middle of the paint defensively and helped rotate on to other players. Ridiculous. Also tons of physical screens at the top and down low on offense. A healthy Baynes is very underrated. The Baynes doubters can put this game in their pipe and smoke it.

Absolutely nobody in the media or on this site saw AB guarding Giannis ISO, brilliant job by Brad & Co.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Giving Horford or Baynes primary Giannis responsibility, and staggering them, makes sure that
a) you have enough fouls to go around
b) can keep 4 quick guys/shooters on the floor to exploit Lopez/Ilyasova/Mirotic
c) everyone else can stay in the same scheme of selectively helping and stunting on to Giannis, so you give guys a simple, repeatable task.

This was a great job by Brad of having a clear, simple gameplan, and a better job by the players of executing better than they have all year on the defensive end.

The plan was great and execution was terrific on the defensive end. The execution on the offensive end was also excellent. On defense they did a terrific job of getting back to take away any breaks from Giannis. They really shut the Bucks offense down.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Bledsoe and Hill were barely contained today. If they keep this performance up, the Bucks wont just win comfortably on Tuesday, they may eliminate the Cs with just one victory.

Are we all able to agree that for all the seriously basketball knowledge in this forum, we collectively know less than we think?


Edit: To clarify, I include myself but this game unfolded in a novel way that some people could envision but nobody predicted that Boston would hold Giannis to 22 points and seven boards while hitting three of five from deep. That they did so while also stifling the other Bucks including Middleton is even more remarkable.

 

[BaseballJones]

So far the Celtics are 5-0 in the playoffs. 2-0 at home, and 3-0 on the road. Against teams with a combined record of 108-56 (.659).

Average score:
- Home: 92-83
- Road: 109-97

 

[DJnVa]

 

[DJnVa]

Lots of fun quotes here.

The Boston Celtics should set their sights higher than the Milwaukee Bucks or even the Golden State Warriors.

Like perhaps Thanos.

And they’d probably get it done in fewer than three hours, if the start of the Eastern Conference playoffs is any indication.

The Celtics’ elevator goes to the penthouse of the NBA, a place accessible by the juggernaut in the Bay Area.

But if this is indeed more than a mirage, the Milwaukee Bucks could just be in the wrong place at the wrong time, placeholders for a Celtics team that seems intent on fulfilling its potential.

Jaylen Brown feels like Iguodala-lite, a Swiss Army knife capable of doing everything between solid to spectacular, taking the added responsibility of stepping up in the aftermath of Marcus Smart’s injury and running with it.

 

[benhogan]

Bledsoe and Hill were barely contained today. If they keep this performance up, the Bucks wont just win comfortably on Tuesday, they may eliminate the Cs with just one victory.

Are we all able to agree that for all the seriously basketball knowledge in this forum, we collectively know less than we think?


Edit: To clarify, I include myself but this game unfolded in a novel way that some people could envision but nobody predicted that Boston would hold Giannis to 22 points and seven boards while hitting three of five from deep. That they did so while also stifling the other Bucks including Middleton is even more remarkable.

I'm not sure what the Board collectively thinks of its basketball knowledge, all my mind reading powers are used with my wife.
BUT Brad definitely pulled some stuff out today that no one here or the media saw coming. More importantly, the players executed on that game plan.

I do think a lot of posters here made some very good prognostications over the last week that played out today like "an early start time hurting the Bucks", "playing 5 out, to render Lopez useless", "Horford being able to slow down the best 4 in the game", "the Celtics paying close attention to gumming up the middle", "Brogdon's absence being felt" etc etc etc.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Lol oh man. Never change HRB.

Celtics outclassed them. In every aspect of the game.

Must have been the time for tip off.

Yes as I stated when the scheduling came out with the noon start heavily favoring the road team and this being a great opportunity if we were ready to take advantage of it. We did. Do you expect a sweep?

 

[lovegtm]

I'm not sure what the Board collectively thinks of its basketball knowledge, all my mind reading powers are used with my wife.
BUT Brad definitely pulled some stuff out today that no one here or the media saw coming. More importantly, the players executed on that game plan.

I do think a lot of posters here made some very good prognostications over the last week that played out today like "an early start time hurting the Bucks", "playing 5 out, to render Lopez useless", "Horford being able to slow down the best 4 in the game", "the Celtics paying close attention to gumming up the middle", "Brogdon's absence being felt" etc etc etc.

Yeah, the game looked like what I thought it would on offense, with a lower volume 3 point shooting than I anticipated, which is a positive imo. Their little drop zone scheme with Lopez got scrapped early, and that already has the Bucks way out of their comfort zone.

On the defensive end, I was shocked. Obviously Al was at another level, but the help was executed almost perfectly. I did not think they could do that to Giannis.

The obvious adjustment that Giannis is going to make is to watch the tape and figure out where the help is coming from, to find shooters. He gets a lot more assists normally, but it felt like he couldn’t get comfortable with his reads today.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm more than happy to be wrong about using Horford so much on Giannis. Incredible.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Boston is 5-0 thus far in the playoffs and has the fewest total FTA and the second fewest FTA per game of any of the remaining squads. The other team with fewer FT/game is Toronto. Today Boston went to the line eight times versus the Bucks 24 and yet the C's won the game decisively.

I have seen quite a few posts here and Tweets lamenting the fact that the C's cannot seem to get foul calls. I don't know what the correlation is between FTA and wins so perhaps this is just small sample size (though I posted earlier that four of the top ten FTA teams this season were lottery teams) however I would argue that drawing fouls and getting to the line may not be as important as some people thought.

More to the point, there were a lot of pixels burned around the C's inability to get to the line during the regular season which led to complaints about coaching/style of play as well as refereeing. Those complaints may well prove to be legitimate but, at present, when I hear people pointing out the FT disparity, I am now wondering why we should care.

Edit: To be clear, before I would have reflexively agreed that the C's inability to get to the line was a problem before looking at the numbers/results. Now I am not sure what, if any, weight to give to the ability to draw fouls.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Bledsoe and Hill were barely contained today. If they keep this performance up, the Bucks wont just win comfortably on Tuesday, they may eliminate the Cs with just one victory.

Are we all able to agree that for all the seriously basketball knowledge in this forum, we collectively know less than we think?


Edit: To clarify, I include myself but this game unfolded in a novel way that some people could envision but nobody predicted that Boston would hold Giannis to 22 points and seven boards while hitting three of five from deep. That they did so while also stifling the other Bucks including Middleton is even more remarkable.

Curious how you think the game unfolded in a novel way.

To me, Cs played defense just as most pundits predicted - creating a wall and even had their hands out as the vido BaynesHogan posted (apparently, Giannis is bothered by guys with hands out). With Giannis not ontrolling the middle, the Cs were able to get back to shooters and make them uncomfortable.

On offense, Cs were able to dice up MIL's no switch defense.

My biggest surprises:

(1) Seemed that Connaughton had to guard GH a lot. That's a really bad mismatch that has to be switched up.
(2) MIL spent more than a few minutes playing Lopez, Mirotic, and Illyasova together. They actually had some success but I think that's fools gold. I'm not sure MIL cn play two of those guys together, much less 3
(3) Surprised DJ Wilson didn't get any minutes.
(4) Was surprised that no one other than Giannis was able to create anything. Middleton made some tough shots but he wasn't creating. I guess that's a function of not seeing any MIL games but you would think that a team that wins 60 games would have more than one guy with an ability to create.

 

[NomarsFool]

Maybe it's my green colored glasses, but watching the game I felt a bit for much of the game the Bucks were closer than they should have been. The Celtics were playing some great defense and forcing them into loooong three pointers, of which they hit a bunch. I know they are a great 3PT team, but still - I don't really expect as many of those 2-3-4 foot behind the line 3PAs to go in, and quite a few of them were dropping for the Bucks. The Bucks also had a 24 - 8 FT advantage (a good bit of that would be expected, but seems like an above average differential). I certainly would be very afraid if I was a Milwaukee fan.

 

[Big John]

Boston as a team was 5-8 from the line. Giannis by himself was 5-10. Even so, the officials let the Celtics get physical with Antetokounmpo without sending him to the line on every play.

 

[InstaFace]

The Bucks also had a 24 - 8 FT advantage (a good bit of that would be expected, but seems like an above average differential).

Free throws aren't some gift or entitlement that "ought" to be distributed evenly, like timeouts. They're a consequence of both strategy and execution. It is part of Boston's strategy to deny layups by fouling if the defender is not a player likely to foul out and if the opponent isn't a great FT maker. Today's FT/FTA by the Bucks shows the wisdom of that strategy given playoff pressure, but even by regular season numbers, they were below league average as a team - and while Brogdon is Curry-level automatic, Giannis (73%) and Bledsoe (75%) are anything but. Meanwhile, several of Boston's players are well above average FT% machines, most notably Irving but also Tatum, Morris, Haywood too - even Baynes makes his infrequent ones at 86%. Our team (Brown aside) loves to get fouled going to the rim, because it's a safer bet than a contested (but non-foul) shot from 3-6 feet. Milwaukee and most opponents are wise to avoid doing so.

Not that I think we got too favorable a whistle today, but in general I'll accept not getting some body-contact calls if they let us play on Giannis a bit, and in general they did. I thought it was a pretty solid reffing job overall.

 

[amarshal2]

Nothing about the game plan was the least bit surprising to anybody who paying attention the last week. How well they executed defensively was surprising

 

[TripleOT]

It was good to see the Warriors handle the early start time. Too bad the Bucks couldn't deal with it. Or maybe they're just a flawed team, built for the regular season, where effort teams that can attack the basket in transition and hit threes while making an effort on the defensive end can win a lot of games.

It looks to me that the Celtics have the players to defend GA as well as any other team in the league. It also looks like he's not all that great at moving the ball when double teamed, especially when the double comes after he spins a bit. Middleton is supposed to be one of the best players in the league in iso, but he didn't get a lot of iso opportunities with the Bucks riding Giannis so hard. He only got four shots in the second half, all two point jumpers, and only hit one, after going 4-8 in the first, including 3-4 from distance. His 2-8 shooting inside the arc isn't going to get it done.

One game does not a series make. The Bucks could come out Tuesday and steamroll the Celtics, with GA making adjustments where he sets up more on the side, so the entire defense can't sag into the lane. Or they can use him more as a setup guy on the elbow, having people curl off him with his dribble alive, to get the Celtics help defenders scrambling. Or play off Middleton more, with GA crashing the glass when Kris shoots or late posting at the rim when Middleton faces up.

The Celtics can put a stranglehold on this series in 46 hours. If the Celtics can put together a strong first quarter, the Bucks might fold up.

 

[amarshal2]

There’s no way that team folds one quarter into game two. It’s going to be a battle until the end.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think the big question for the Bucks remains whether anyone other than Giannis can win one on one. Today no one could, and so when he was contained they had nothing.

If Celts defend like they did today, I don’t think that changes. I like Bledsoe and Middleton but that isn’t really their games—at least not ca solid defenders.

Whether the Celts execute as well at either end as they did today is a big question mark for me. But if they do, they aren’t losing to the Bucks and not sure they are losing to anyone other than GS

 

[InstaFace]

Let's remember that we match up well against the Bucks (and Philly for that matter), but poorly against Toronto, and the regular-season games against the Raptors (where we appeared to be trying) did not go well for us.

So I'm not crowning us East Champions off of one game in the semifinals, but I remain confident that the Bucks matchup is a good one for us and our odds are a lot better than what Vegas and the public are giving us.