ROUND 1: Patriots shuffle off to Buffalo

Rico Guapo

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The decline in the pass rush, specifically Judon, has been especially steep. Half of his sacks were from game 2-5, where he was almost unstoppable. Now, he's very stoppable. Never mind no sacks, he's had no hits in a month. When he was rolling, that was such a boost to the secondary, which will have its hands full in the playoffs. It was obvious coming out of the last Bills game that Bryant needed help, and I'm sure he'll get it this game. The problem is that whoever gets that assignment will have to leave another area vulnerable. If Allen can adjust, that's trouble.

Special teams is another story. I just don't get it. I guess it's been taken for granted for so long, but all units have just been brutal. It's gotten to the point where they don't need to play well; they just need to figure out a way to avoid crippling the rest of the team's chances.
The league figured out you could hold him and not get called for it, he's getting mugged multiple times a game and the flag never gets thrown. Yes I know there is holding on every play in the NFL but there have been some particularly egregious non-calls for Judon over the last month plus.
 

tims4wins

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The league figured out you could hold him and not get called for it, he's getting mugged multiple times a game and the flag never gets thrown. Yes I know there is holding on every play in the NFL but there have been some particularly egregious non-calls for Judon over the last month plus.
This has been discussed in several places. It's not a penalty when the defender executes the rip move.
 

BaseballJones

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This has been discussed in several places. It's not a penalty when the defender executes the rip move.
There was a holding call in last night's game when a rusher ripped under and got held. Flag - holding.

NFL reffing is so inconsistent (at least to the naked eye).
 

Ralphwiggum

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The idea that Judon, specifically, is getting held more and/or more egregiously than any other NFL pass rusher is absurd on its face. They've missed some holding calls on him but if you are going to watch and enjoy the NFL you have to accept the fact that that penalty gets called inconsistently and arbitrarily.

Edit: To me it seems like Judon is dealing with an injury or something. He's just nowhere near as explosive off the line as he was in September/October.
 

moretsyndrome

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The idea that Judon, specifically, is getting held more and/or more egregiously than any other NFL pass rusher is absurd on its face. They've missed some holding calls on him but if you are going to watch and enjoy the NFL you have to accept the fact that that penalty gets called inconsistently and arbitrarily.

Edit: To me it seems like Judon is dealing with an injury or something. He's just nowhere near as explosive off the line as he was in September/October.
I agree, there at least seems to be something wrong with him above and beyond late season wear-and-tear. Keeping up that early pace is asking too much, but they need more out of him given the QB(s) that they'll be facing now.
 

Devizier

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For sure they need to play a clean game
That's what's killed me about this team in the last few games. They are committing a whole lot of errors, forced and unforced. I think that's part of the package with this year's squad, but let's see how they do against a very good Buffalo squad. If they can win then I'll believe this team can do anything.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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My biggest question for the Patriots is how they defend their crossing routes. If they leave Bryant or Ross alone on Beasley then they are probably in trouble. I wish they would play more quarters and/or zone. I hate the matchups in man defense. If Allen takes the checkdowns and can consistently pick your zones apart all game then fine.
Aren't the Patriots a better zone team than man to begin with, after losing Gilmore and Jon Jones? Plus, isn't zone better for defending mobile QBs? (in man, DBs backs are to QB). I didn't really understand the game plan in round 2, hopefully BB has something much better dialed up for round 3.
I've been thinking about this too. A lot of the Patriots' success earlier in the season was built on playing a heavier mix of zone than we've seen from them in previous seasons. It really feels like they got away from that badly in the second Buffalo game (Miami game too, but the RPO presents a slightly different problem). Buffalo was without a few WR for that game and forced to play real depth guys as their third and fourth WR in those packages. I wonder if BB/Stevie just thought we could man up on them given those circumstances and it simply backfired when their depth guys kept winning against Bryant and also Allen kept beating us with his legs.

In any case, maybe I'm looking too hard for reasons for optimism, but a different defensive scheme that gets back to more of our zone principles seems like it will give us a better shot. Make Allen beat us with long drives and make it harder for him to pick up chunks on scrambles, especially on third down.
 

j44thor

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The idea that Judon, specifically, is getting held more and/or more egregiously than any other NFL pass rusher is absurd on its face. They've missed some holding calls on him but if you are going to watch and enjoy the NFL you have to accept the fact that that penalty gets called inconsistently and arbitrarily.

Edit: To me it seems like Judon is dealing with an injury or something. He's just nowhere near as explosive off the line as he was in September/October.
It seems that a by-product of whatever ails him is now he is cheating inside or outside too often, as opposed to beating his man, resulting in a lot of the big QB runs we have seen lately. He is also abysmal at setting the edge in the run game the last month+ losing contain on way too many outside runs. I can see Allen using his aggressiveness against him for several key 3rd down runs on Sat.
 

SMU_Sox

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Aren't the Patriots a better zone team than man to begin with, after losing Gilmore and Jon Jones? Plus, isn't zone better for defending mobile QBs? (in man, DBs backs are to QB). I didn't really understand the game plan in round 2, hopefully BB has something much better dialed up for round 3.
Your first question is a maybe. I don’t have stats to look at split success rates but when they went zone in the middle of the year against mediocre to bad QBs they did very well. I think JCJ is better with man than zone FWIW but Bryant and Mills are probably better in zone. Coverage though has been pretty good all year. Zone is typically better against mobile QBs but you always play a mix. Question is usually the mix. Are you a 20-30% man team? 30-40%? 40-50%? Etc. With those slot crossing routes in general unless you have a slot corner with elite speed you will likely have issues on those concepts with Bryant if he is matched up against someone twitched up. Ideally you either knock the shit out of them as they cross the middle of the field, knock them before they can get into their route off the LOS, have someone who can help as they cross, or hope your guy can keep up. With you I’m hoping whatever they choose to do it’s different from round 2.
 

RG33

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This feels like a really bad matchup for the Patriots. Allen is the epitome of the type of QB that a Belichick defense has trouble against — can make every throw, throws well deep, and is very mobile when things break down. The Pats will have to play almost perfect defense on the line — keeping containment on outside runs AND keeping Allen from picking up big plays AND getting good interior pressure so Diggs and Davis don’t have time for double moves.

On offense, I just don’t see the Patriots being able to move the ball against Buffalo if they are stacking 9 and 10 in the box and forcing Mac to throw outside. I think this is going to be the Baltimore game from a couple of years ago when they are going to have to go to Josh’s bag-of-tricks to make some magic happening.

As others have said, I think the only chance they will have is if they get an early lead, control the clock on the ground, and win the turnover battle with bad Allen showing up. I think the odds are between slim and none. 34-13 Bills.
 

Shelterdog

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I've got to say I believe in every single team that plays the Bills because I am thoroughly convinced Josh Allen can lose any game for the Bills. First, Allen (and the Bills offense) is just too aggressive with Allen as a runner. He's big and he's powerful and he's avoided major injuries so far and that's all great until it doesn't work any more. A hundred rushes a year is quite a few, he takes some big hits. (He also continues to fumble just about every other game). It's worked so far but put me in the camp of "running Qbs eventually learn to not run in the NFL or else.") And while he has a great arm, etc. he also is capable of some truly boneheaded plays; I have full faith that he'll throw an absolutely insane pick in the playoffs sometime soon. (He also gets sacked a reasonable amount despite his running prowess.)

But the points most of the board are making are true. Allen can lose it but he's pretty damn capable of making some great plays too and the bills are a highly motivated tough match up. I think we keep it close and Allen helps it stay closer than it should be given the couple of great plays I'm sure he'll make but utlimately this suggests a 24-14 kind of loss for our guys.
 

Al Zarilla

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I think the Bills have a huge advantage in the passing game, so wind is the only thing that can mitigate that.
Thing is that Josh Allen is bigger and stronger and throws a higher velocity ball (one would think) than Mac. So, assuming he throws even reasonably good spirals, his passes should bore through the wind better than Mac's on the way to his receivers. Conversely, this is most likely why BB and McD took the ball out of Mac's hands in the previous game at Buffalo. Advantage Allen in the wind.
 

BaseballJones

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Forget his first season. Let's look at his last 3 years vs. the Pats.

2019
(at Buf) 13-28, 153 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 24.0 rating, 26 yds rushing
(at NE) 13-26, 208 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 102.7 rating, 43 yds rushing

2020
(at Buf) 11-18, 154 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 65.5 rating, 23 yds rushing
(at NE) 27-36, 320 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 138.7 rating, 35 yds rushing

2021
(at Buf) 15-30, 145 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 75.0 rating, 39 yds rushing
(at NE) 30-47, 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating, 64 yds rushing

So three excellent games, and three stinkers, though one of those stinkers came in extreme conditions. Interestingly, all three stinkers have come in Buffalo, while all three excellent games have come in New England.

Where's this weekend's game again?
 

Cellar-Door

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Forget his first season. Let's look at his last 3 years vs. the Pats.

2019
(at Buf) 13-28, 153 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 24.0 rating, 26 yds rushing
(at NE) 13-26, 208 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 102.7 rating, 43 yds rushing

2020
(at Buf) 11-18, 154 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 65.5 rating, 23 yds rushing
(at NE) 27-36, 320 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 138.7 rating, 35 yds rushing

2021
(at Buf) 15-30, 145 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 75.0 rating, 39 yds rushing
(at NE) 30-47, 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating, 64 yds rushing

So three excellent games, and three stinkers, though one of those stinkers came in extreme conditions. Interestingly, all three stinkers have come in Buffalo, while all three excellent games have come in New England.

Where's this weekend's game again?
honestly the @ BUF one was a pretty good game, you have to adjust for the fact he was throwing in a wind so bad the Patriots threw once and quit.
 

trs

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Thing is that Josh Allen is bigger and stronger and throws a higher velocity ball (one would think) than Mac. So, assuming he throws even reasonably good spirals, his passes should bore through the wind better than Mac's on the way to his receivers. Conversely, this is most likely why BB and McD took the ball out of Mac's hands in the previous game at Buffalo. Advantage Allen in the wind.
Granted I'm basing this off of a (perfectly reasonable) assumption, so little chance of this bearing out, but I somewhat hope it's a windy day. Yes, Allen theoretically has an advantage in the wind with his stronger arm, but a strong wind will mitigate that. Given Allen's reliance on his arm strength to be a good quarterback, higher winds might make him less effective, more liable to turnovers or inaccuracy without Buffalo necessarily having an effective plan b. New England obviously does have a plan b, probably plan a, if Mac's throws aren't winning them a game.

A no-wind game? That seems to benefit the Bills more than a windy game, despite Allen theoretically being able to handle the wind better, as it would just allow for Allen to capitalize more freely on his ability to throw better than Mac.

Of course I'm ignoring his ability to run, which will be a problem regardless of wind. Unless it's really windy.
 

DJnVa

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Forget his first season. Let's look at his last 3 years vs. the Pats.

2019
(at Buf) 13-28, 153 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 24.0 rating, 26 yds rushing
(at NE) 13-26, 208 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 102.7 rating, 43 yds rushing

2020
(at Buf) 11-18, 154 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 65.5 rating, 23 yds rushing
(at NE) 27-36, 320 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 138.7 rating, 35 yds rushing

2021
(at Buf) 15-30, 145 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 75.0 rating, 39 yds rushing
(at NE) 30-47, 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating, 64 yds rushing

So three excellent games, and three stinkers, though one of those stinkers came in extreme conditions. Interestingly, all three stinkers have come in Buffalo, while all three excellent games have come in New England.

Where's this weekend's game again?
He wasn't really great in the 2019 game. He was 13/26---he hit Brown for a 53 yarder with 2 defenders about to crush him. Not saying it wasn't a great play but basically his only option was to just heave the ball, and Brown ran it down. He also hit Knox on a long heave. Both nice plays and both count, but beyond those 2 offensive plays, he was 11-24 for 120 yards.

But, results are the only thing that matter in the postseason--we need to wrap him up, and stay disciplined on defense and hope Bad Josh shows up.
 

luckiestman

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BB winning a football game will never surprise me. Given that, this seems like a bad matchup for the Pats. Mac in the elements against a good pass D is going to be a problem and I don’t expect a comedy running game encore.
 

DJnVa

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BB winning a football game will never surprise me. Given that, this seems like a bad matchup for the Pats. Mac in the elements against a good pass D is going to be a problem and I don’t expect a comedy running game encore.
MAC IS UNDEFEATED IN GAMES WITH CRAZY WEATHER!
 

Ale Xander

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the key for me is the line being as successful as the last time there, and for Damien and Rham to make good cuts, go N-S, so they avoid the 3 and outs. If they can win the TOP, they have a good chance. Also need to contain the Allen runs.
 

8slim

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The D has to find ways to get off the field. To me, that's the game. At Gillette the Bills had an 11 minute TOP advantage, and converted 9 of 16 third and fourth downs. It's almost impossible to overcome that.
 

Bongorific

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I've got to say I believe in every single team that plays the Bills because I am thoroughly convinced Josh Allen can lose any game for the Bills. First, Allen (and the Bills offense) is just too aggressive with Allen as a runner. He's big and he's powerful and he's avoided major injuries so far and that's all great until it doesn't work any more. A hundred rushes a year is quite a few, he takes some big hits. (He also continues to fumble just about every other game). It's worked so far but put me in the camp of "running Qbs eventually learn to not run in the NFL or else.") And while he has a great arm, etc. he also is capable of some truly boneheaded plays; I have full faith that he'll throw an absolutely insane pick in the playoffs sometime soon. (He also gets sacked a reasonable amount despite his running prowess.)

But the points most of the board are making are true. Allen can lose it but he's pretty damn capable of making some great plays too and the bills are a highly motivated tough match up. I think we keep it close and Allen helps it stay closer than it should be given the couple of great plays I'm sure he'll make but utlimately this suggests a 24-14 kind of loss for our guys.
I tend to watch more Bills than I want because they’re on TV a lot in my area and most of my friends are Bills fans. Josh started his career making horrific decisions at the worst possible time but has been getting better. But he still likes to gamble. Yesterday was another good example where he was scrambling just before the half and realized he was going to get tackled in bounds. He lateralled to Knox who was able to get out of bounds. It worked out but I hope he tries some of those plays Saturday.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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The weather I just saw is for 16', wind at 9mph with gusts to 14mph with a "real feel" temp of 5'. I really want to see how Mac handles a cold night with steady but not severe wind.
This is a house money game for the Patriots. The season has already been a success and all expectations are for a Buffalo win. There is a lot of pressure on the Bills. None on the Pats. A Patriots win turns the Bills season into a complete disaster. I don't think Allen could have played a much better game than he did against the Pats in Foxboro but he can get a little tight when things don't go well early. If he gets off to a fast start, look out, but if the Pats can hang around by controlling the ball and frustrate him on defense then he can be counted on to throw that big INT.
 

Shelterdog

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I tend to watch more Bills than I want because they’re on TV a lot in my area and most of my friends are Bills fans. Josh started his career making horrific decisions at the worst possible time but has been getting better. But he still likes to gamble. Yesterday was another good example where he was scrambling just before the half and realized he was going to get tackled in bounds. He lateralled to Knox who was able to get out of bounds. It worked out but I hope he tries some of those plays Saturday.
He had a run in the fourth quarter, up 20-10, 5:50 left in the game, 3 and 8, he stretched for the first but was short by two yards, almost got hit in bounds, got hit pretty hard out of bounds and might have really gotten drilled if one of the jets hadn't taken most of the blow from another jet. He drew the penalty but it was such a bone headed play (like 4th and 2 up 20-10 from the 5 isn't a bad situation vs the jets.). Like I said up thread he's a big powerful dude who's stayed healthy so far but that doesn't last forever given how physical defenders can be.

EDIT: He definitely used to make a lot more dumb plays and he's not terrible about that, but he really makes you wonder a couple times a game.
 

loshjott

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This feels like a really bad matchup for the Patriots. Allen is the epitome of the type of QB that a Belichick defense has trouble against — can make every throw, throws well deep, and is very mobile when things break down. The Pats will have to play almost perfect defense on the line — keeping containment on outside runs AND keeping Allen from picking up big plays AND getting good interior pressure so Diggs and Davis don’t have time for double moves.

On offense, I just don’t see the Patriots being able to move the ball against Buffalo if they are stacking 9 and 10 in the box and forcing Mac to throw outside. I think this is going to be the Baltimore game from a couple of years ago when they are going to have to go to Josh’s bag-of-tricks to make some magic happening.

As others have said, I think the only chance they will have is if they get an early lead, control the clock on the ground, and win the turnover battle with bad Allen showing up. I think the odds are between slim and none. 34-13 Bills.
Which type of defense does not have trouble against a QB who can make every throw, throws well deep, and is very mobile when things break down? Hard to defend peak Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young.
 

RG33

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Which type of defense does not have trouble against a QB who can make every throw, throws well deep, and is very mobile when things break down? Hard to defend peak Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young.
Yeah, that was kind of my point. He’s really freaking good, and if he executes, it doesn’t matter what the Pats defensive DVOA is. They’ll put up 30 points and the Patriots likely won’t be able to come close to that.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The D has to find ways to get off the field. To me, that's the game. At Gillette the Bills had an 11 minute TOP advantage, and converted 9 of 16 third and fourth downs. It's almost impossible to overcome that.
I know this isnt scientific, but it's almost mathematically impossible for the Bills offense to play as well as they did last time the teams played. What's the chance the Bills can go two games against the Patriots and not punt once?
 

macal

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Which type of defense does not have trouble against a QB who can make every throw, throws well deep, and is very mobile when things break down? Hard to defend peak Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young.
The kind of defense that can sneak 3 extra defenders onto the field without the refs noticing.

Young would be my best comparison to Allen. They both have sneaky speed in that they don't look as if they are fast, or at least don't look as if they should be fast, however, before you know it they've run for 15 yards and a first down. Although it's been a while, I don't remember Young having as many designed runs up the middle as Allen. That can make Allen even more dangerous as he has the size to break some soft tackles up the middle, when he sees space. It would be nice if the Pats could have a QB with all 3 skills. We had that guy for 20 years that didn't have a fast twitch muscle below his waist.
 

Shelterdog

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Yeah, that was kind of my point. He’s really freaking good, and if he executes, it doesn’t matter what the Pats defensive DVOA is. They’ll put up 30 points and the Patriots likely won’t be able to come close to that.
He's really good but we're not talking about the 19 chiefs or the greatest show on turf here; he's a talented QB who can run it but he fumbles, he throws some picks, he doesn't complete a particularly high percentage of his passes and after Diggs he doesn't have great talent offensively. The Pats game plan will have something to say about whether he executes or not and while it doesn't matter what the DVOA the Pats have a good enough defense that they absolutely could keep him under 30. Especially when it's Buffalo and january: my weather report ( I know it's pretty far out still) suggests single degree weather with wind chill.

Weather, two defensive oriented teams and head coaches--this looks like a rock fight to me, not an Allen offensive explosion.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The Patriots defense just has to get off the field. They can't keep playing like the played against the Bills a couple of weeks ago or against the Colts (or Miami for much of yesterday), where they give up 5 to 8 yards every play all the way down the field for five minutes or more.

In the last game, the Bills' two drives to start each half were a combined 12 minutes and 55 seconds. Almost a freaking quarter. The Patriots had 8 possessions all game. They cannot win like that. The Bills' worst penetration was to the Patriots 16 yard line for the entire game last time. And that was a 14 play drive that took nearly six minutes. That's crazy. Their drives:

13 plays, 6:57, TD
10 plays, 5:27, FG (7 yard line)
7 plays, 3:13, downs (1 yard line)
7 plays, 1:25), TD
14 plays, 5:58, FG (16 yard line)
9 plays, 4:59, TD
13 plays, 5:07, TD

No team wants to get beat over the top. It's demoralizing. But it's not nearly as demoralizing as getting into 2d and 3 all night long and never being able to even come close to getting off the field until the other team is a compressed field near the goal line. Also, allowing 5 yards of cushion underneath every single play gives us almost zero possibility of a turnover barring a bad snap or a great strip. If they go deep and beat us, so be it. Mac will just have to match it. But get the damned defense off the field.

In the last game the Bills had 3 or fewer yards to make the line to gain on second down ten freaking times.
 

Deathofthebambino

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This has been discussed in several places. It's not a penalty when the defender executes the rip move.
I just want to clear something up. It's not always not a penalty when the defender does a rip move. And FTR, because I've seen it alluded to elsewhere, a swim move and a rip move are two different moves. A rip move is the one that is the exception to the holding rule, not the swim move. Here is a brief tutorial on the rip move:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21Sg4vDSCnM


What makes the discussion, and frankly, the rule itself, so difficult to understand and IMO, to apply consistently, is we're talking about split second stuff when it happens in game action. If you come under the offensive lineman's arm and rip upwards, RESULTING in the lineman's arm across your body and then you attempt to break through, that is the exception to the rule. Basically, the defender is one creating the arm bar that would normally result in a holding call, not the offensive player.

But just because you get to the side of a defender, and your arm ends up under his does not mean it's a "rip" move and doesn't negate holding. The problem is the rule is so subjective and so hard to see in real time, unless a ref has a perfect angle that it is fraught with potential issues, resulting in calls sometimes and not at other times, and there aren't 5-6 refs watching each of the 5-6 lineman and defenders on each play. If you're watching Judon's rip move on one side, you aren't watching to see the rip move or non-rip move or swim move on the other side. However, it turns back into a potential "holding" call if the defender goes down, due to the movements made by the lineman. So basically the lineman can leave his arm where it is, because the defender caused his arm to be there, but the lineman can't then forcefully use that arm to bring the defender to the ground.

If you're going to use the rip move, you need to learn when to go down if you want to buy a call there. But either way, it's a really, really fucking hard rule to police.
 

Ed Hillel

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The team does not have to play a clean game to win, they just need to lower degree of dirty they have been the past month. Every loss was down the last possession, even with the multitude of dumb shit, they somehow find a way to stay competitive. Allen has plenty of stinkers himself, so they could win an ugly game as well.
 

DJnVa

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They’ll put up 30 points and the Patriots likely won’t be able to come close to that.
Why can the team that averaged 28.4 points put up 30 points and the team that averaged 27.2 not do so?
 

DeadlySplitter

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Cynical answer: their 45+ point performances were against the Browns, Jags and Jets.

Reasonable statement: don't have the offensive weapons to reasonably expect more than mid-20s against a playoff team.
 

SteveF

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In any case, maybe I'm looking too hard for reasons for optimism, but a different defensive scheme that gets back to more of our zone principles seems like it will give us a better shot. Make Allen beat us with long drives and make it harder for him to pick up chunks on scrambles, especially on third down.
Here's some coverage scheme data:
48219

48218
48220
 

radsoxfan

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A no-wind game? That seems to benefit the Bills more than a windy game, despite Allen theoretically being able to handle the wind better, as it would just allow for Allen to capitalize more freely on his ability to throw better than Mac.
I'd honestly rather have good weather than typical cold/windy Buffalo. Allen is used to it and has a better arm.

If it's anything resembling normal Buffalo conditions the Pats will still have to put up points and I think Mac will need all the help he can get.

Now if its going to be some extreme weather situation like last game with the wind, I'd be all for that. But otherwise I don't think typical crummy Buffalo weather will help the Pats unfortunately.
 

DJnVa

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Cynical answer: their 45+ point performances were against the Browns, Jags and Jets.
Bills highest games were against Jets, Texans, and WFT and could only muster 6 against the Jags.

But, I know this is SoSH so we alternate between our team can do no wrong and they have no chance.
 

Saints Rest

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The weather I just saw is for 16', wind at 9mph with gusts to 14mph with a "real feel" temp of 5'. I really want to see how Mac handles a cold night with steady but not severe wind.
This is a house money game for the Patriots. The season has already been a success and all expectations are for a Buffalo win. There is a lot of pressure on the Bills. None on the Pats. A Patriots win turns the Bills season into a complete disaster. I don't think Allen could have played a much better game than he did against the Pats in Foxboro but he can get a little tight when things don't go well early. If he gets off to a fast start, look out, but if the Pats can hang around by controlling the ball and frustrate him on defense then he can be counted on to throw that big INT.
If you are on an iPhone and you hold down the number zero, it will give you an option to use the degree symbol °. On a Mac, it’s OPTION-0.
Handy for giving temperatures.
I’m not sure what the Android or Windows equivalents are.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
40,581
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1480694203898208257

AFC Wild Card: Patriots at Bills, 8:15 p.m. CBS PARA+
In this AFC East postseason battle, Brad Allen is the referee. He is in his 8th season after being hired directly to the referee position from the NCAA in 2014. This is Allen’s 4th postseason assignment, including 3 Wild Card Playoffs and a Divisional Playoff.
http://www.footballzebras.com/2022/01/wild-card-assignments-2021/
Brad Allen is the referee for our game vs the Bills
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,770
Dallas
@SteveF thank you for posting those charts. Really cool to see how they compared and how effective they were as well as what Allen has faced.

Seems like Allen performs the worst against single high man and he’s seen a lot of it. That makes their game plan in the last game make more sense. I’m making some assumptions with the coverage labels though.
 
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BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
40,627
It’s going to be wild on Saturday night and the Bills faithful will be all liquored up. They’ll be looking for an early knockout blow. Go down 10-0 or 14-0 in the first half and we’re done. Keep it close, then you can settle in and hope to win a close one.

My main concern is Mac and the offense. Is Mac ready for this? We shall see.
 

McBride11

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
17,989
Charleston, SC
Any relation to Josh? Oh boy!

This was the matchup I was most worried about. Allen's running adds another dimension and further attacks the slow LB corp.

But the Pats can win. BB won't let some 4th string WR run wild over Bryant on other on crossing routes. The Pats have to play a good game - limit TO, no ST complete fuck ups, and the D contain Allen.

Doesn't have to be perfect, Allen is gonna get his yards and make some good throws. Just make some plays on 3rd down.

I won't be surprised if the Pats win 20-13 or lose 24-14.

Overall, this season was a pleasant success with Mac, while not perfect, showing some real signs of being a quality QB. And the team, likely expected to miss the playoffs getting the 6th seed and second in the AFCE
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,592
The weather I just saw is for 16', wind at 9mph with gusts to 14mph with a "real feel" temp of 5'. I really want to see how Mac handles a cold night with steady but not severe wind.
This is a house money game for the Patriots. The season has already been a success and all expectations are for a Buffalo win. There is a lot of pressure on the Bills. None on the Pats. A Patriots win turns the Bills season into a complete disaster. I don't think Allen could have played a much better game than he did against the Pats in Foxboro but he can get a little tight when things don't go well early. If he gets off to a fast start, look out, but if the Pats can hang around by controlling the ball and frustrate him on defense then he can be counted on to throw that big INT.
Assuming the Patriots actually catch it. Which they haven't done lately.
 

speedracer

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,835
@SteveF thank you for posting those charts. Really cool to see how they compared and how effective they were as well as what Allen has faced.

Seems like Allen performs the worst against single high man and he’s seen a lot of it. That makes their game plan in the last game make more sense. I’m making some assumptions with the coverage labels though.
That 2M (man-to-man with two safeties?) sticks out like a sore thumb, I'm guessing Allen got chunks of rushing yards against those coverages?

Also wondering if there are confounding effects where more competent defenses are more likely to employ cover-1, since against the NFL baseline it seems to be more effective.

On a related note, from looking at highlights of Jacksonville's 9-6 win over Buffalo, what got them the win a fierce pass rush (sigh) that got them 4 sacks and an INT. (along withi some boneheaded penalties that aborted scoring drives etc). Interestingly enough, the first 2 sacks came in the first half against a straight-up 4 man rush, no stunting in order not to open up running lanes. The other 2 sacks and the INT came in the second half against 5-6 man blitzes. Definitely feels like some metagame adjustments will be necessary to win the game; of course for that to happen the Pats need to keep the game under control and not fall into a big hole.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaaDe6Z5vOM
 

Bongorific

Thinks he’s clever
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
7,366
Balboa Towers
@SteveF thank you for posting those charts. Really cool to see how they compared and how effective they were as well as what Allen has faced.

Seems like Allen performs the worst against single high man and he’s seen a lot of it. That makes their game plan in the last game make more sense. I’m making some assumptions with the coverage labels though.
How do I read the pink graph?