Round 1 - Florida

[Myt1]

The decision to play Forbort on the heels of his long injury absence and the Bruins stellar PK performance without him during that time was a material contribution to the loss last night. Anyone seen anything from him that would offset that detriment?

 

[cshea]

The decision to play Forbort on the heels of his long injury absence and the Bruins stellar PK performance without him during that time was a material contribution to the loss last night. Anyone seen anything from him that would offset that detriment?

I'm with you but apparently under the hood he's a literal PK god which is probably why he plays.

Personally,. I don't think the value gained with him on the PK is worth the drag he creates at 5x5. I think the context that is missing here is that they are still a pretty good PK without him.

https://theathletic.com/4448342/2023/04/25/leon-draisaitl-maple-leafs-16-stats/

Before the playoffs, it felt like Derek Forbort was an easy odd-man out on Boston’s blue line. He was the only Bruins defender under 51 percent in expected goals at 48.1 percent and his 54 percent goal rate was five percentage points worse than the next-worst defenseman. He is very clearly the team’s worst defenseman at five-on-five. That’s only continued in these playoffs where Florida has earned 62 percent of the expected goals with Forbort on the ice.

Put the Bruins down a man though and Forbort becomes a star, an essential cog in Boston’s power-kill machine. During the regular season, the Bruins allowed just 4.3 goals against per 60 with Forbort on the ice and 6.7 expected goals against. In the playoffs, he’s been even better with zero goals against and 1.4 expected goals against per 60, by far the lowest mark on the team. Perhaps more wild is the Bruins have earned 5.3 expected goals for per 60 the other way. Forbort’s play can be exploited at even strength, but he’s a cheat code while short-handed.

 

[NYCSox]

Didn’t they kill like 200 in a row while Forbort was out?

 

[cshea]

Didn’t they kill like 200 in a row while Forbort was out?

They did. I'm guessing there is something in the data where he supresses more shots and chances and things like that more than the other defenseman, thus he is in.

I don't really agree because they were still good without him, even if they give up a few more chances against. He is a drag and liability at 5x5. I don't think the 4 minutes of PK time or whatever he averages is worth dealing with the 8-10 minutes at 5x5 they stick him out there for.

 

[Salem's Lot]

From the eye test, it seems to me that the 2/3 times per game in this series that Florida is controlling the puck in the Bruins zone, Forbort is out there not being able to move the puck.

 

[PedroSpecialK]

His ineptitude with a needless icing led to the second goal last night after ~90-100 seconds of being hemmed in. Truly torture to watch him with the bad ice last night, can't begrudge him for being the way he is, but fuck I dislike watching him play.

Fire him into the sun, there are enough options on the PK that his incremental value there is really not worth the squeeze.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Forbort:

I simply don't buy the idea that he is some wizard on the penalty kill. Whatever the data is that is being pointed to on this issue is probably telling us more about the weakness in the data analysis than the virtues of Forbort. About which, Forbort went down in Winnipeg. Including that Winnipeg game the Bruins gave up 4 short handed goals in last the 16 games, which is 4 of their 36 PPO (Power Play goals for Opponents) total for the season. So without Forbort they gave up a PPO in about 1/4 of their games, or four goals over 65 opportunities for a 93.85% kill rate, vs their season rate of 87.3 (and that 87.3 is bumped up by the post-Forbort-injury #s).

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=nhl+team+stats+power+play+goals+allowed+2022-23
https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023_gamelog.html

Foligno:

I really want Uncle Nick to do the best damn fist bump for each guy when they get back to the locker room. That's as close to the ice as we need him.

He either appears behind the play, to not be doing anything or actively doing stuff where I wish someone else was trying to do it. He fails the eye test and while it is fine to fail the eye test, he fails on many of the advanced stats game to game as well. His stat line from last night is pretty depressing when you get into some of the granular stuff and factor in that 1/4 of his shifts were early in the game with Coyle and Marchand who had a very good game in some of the data.


https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=30115&view=limited


Playing in Boston:
Well, one of the things at home is that as the calendar turns to spring the ice in Boston becomes obviously bad in a way that seems to change their ability to play their game and play loose. It is tough to be a technically crisp team if you are always worrying about flat pucks becoming not flat for no discernible reason mid-pass.

And the Bruins are not the 'Big Bad Bruins' of the 1970s -- they are a technically tight group that gets fucked by their own ice, and on measure it happens more so to them than to some of their opponents who are less precise overall and therefore lean on the precision of their game less.

Did that lose them the game last night? Not directly, but it didn't help.

I wonder if at any point Sweeney might say to the Jacobs family, "hey you know, if we're going to blow all this money of having Pastrnak on the team, we might as well give him a sheet of ice better than an outdoor rink poured on the old tennis courts."

 

[PedroSpecialK]

I'll butt out, but I am getting really tired of trying to measure how much the ice at home has cost this core in terms of games, series, eventually hardware -- it's inexcusable that it's still this bad in an arena they own.

 

[TSC]

View: https://twitter.com/_tyanderson/status/1651621036276809729?s=46&t=OkYc4B97cAcDPw09PEJj_w

 

[durandal1707]

I know he has an actual goal in this series and "veteran leadership" blah blah blah, but can we please sit Foligno? He has the worst individual expected goals out of all the forwards this series outside of Lauko. Frederic has nearly twice the ixG value with 7 minutes shorter ice time.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I know he has an actual goal in this series and "veteran leadership" blah blah blah, but can we please sit Foligno?

I think you misspelled Ullmark.

 

[LogansDad]

I think you misspelled Ullmark.

And Forbort.

 

[wiffleballhero]

And Forbort.

and Montgomery

 

[Haunted]

I know I'm being emotional and not so rational right now but Monty Little needs to get his shit together or he can go down in history as being the only coach to be fired for incompetence after a season this good.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I feel bad for Swayman. Gonna take some amazing fortitude to overcome Monty’s malpractice of sitting him for 2 weeks so he can come in cold to a Game 7.

 

[Haunted]

I feel bad for Swayman. Gonna take some amazing fortitude to overcome Monty’s malpractice of sitting him for 2 weeks so he can come in cold to a Game 7.

Yeah at this point, it's like Clode with his running Thomas into the ground and then being stunned when Tuukka played rusty.

 

[lexrageorge]

Hate it when coaches get trapped by "conventional wisdom". No reason not to play Swayman tonight. Now they have to play him in Game 7. If they blow this, Fire Clode should be replaced by Fire Monty.

 

[The Napkin]

Game 5 was the game to play Swayman. Up 3-1 and at home and you can just say it's the normal rotation and worst case you bring Ullmark back for 6 after some extra rest. Perfect situation.

 

[LogansDad]

Game 5 was the game to play Swayman. Up 3-1 and at home and you can just say it's the normal rotation and worst case you bring Ullmark back for 6 after some extra rest. Perfect situation.

100% agree.

 

[Dropkick Izzy]

Either way you slice it, he fucked it up … TWICE!!!

 

[Salem's Lot]

I just don’t get why you would have such great success with a goalie rotation, then abandon it in the playoffs because “that’s what everyone does in the playoffs.”

 

[Preacher]

Hate it when coaches get trapped by "conventional wisdom". No reason not to play Swayman tonight. Now they have to play him in Game 7. If they blow this, Fire Clode should be replaced by Fire Monty.

It seems even more obvious when the opposing coach made a goalie change and has been riding the hot hand (which isn’t really all that hot but Ullmark has been atrocious).

 

[Preacher]

I just don’t get why you would have such great success with a goalie rotation, then abandon it in the playoffs because “that’s what everyone does in the playoffs.”

Except Florida. They switched goalies.

 

[Dropkick Izzy]

The case is yours, Bobrovsky

 

[bsl394]

For all the poor play and questionable decisions, the Bruins have game 7, at home, against a team they are objectively better than. I'd put my money on them. Win game 7, regroup, and move forward. I'm sure most of us expected at least one game 7 if the Bruins won the cup this year - definitely not in the first round - but they wouldn't be the first team to face a scare in the first round and march on.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Im fucking pissed off which means I am now awake.

So fuck it, get the first goal in game 7, and roll from there. The Panthers are clearly a significantly better team when they are not chasing the game from the start.

 

[bsl394]

I'd also lean heavily on 4D in game 7, at least at the start. I just don't trust anyone after the first 4 (who, admittedly, haven't played great this series themselves).

 

[mostman]

It really doesn’t make sense to leave Ullmark in. Maybe you let up one goal and leave him in, but after two goals? Come on. He was completely lost out there. So disappointing. The team probably wins with Sway out there most of the third and even if they don’t, you get him 10 minutes of ice time to prepare him for game 7. Because he’s playing game 7, Ullmark is shook.

 

[kenneycb]

Except Florida. They switched goalies.

It’s easier to do that when you take out an AHL lifer and put in a guy making $10M.

 

[The Napkin]

6:30 start on Sunday

 

[Gary Geiger’s Ghost]

How do you go from coach of the year to chump of the year in six games? Toss everything into a blender, forget what got you here, stick by SloMoFoBo no matter how many failed clears and wear out a shaky Ullmark ...

 

[Boston Brawler]

Game 7 is a 6:30 start on Sunday

edit: beat by Napkin. I’m tired

 

[DeadlySplitter]

It's just been rather disappointing how they've played this series (defensively - offensively they've mostly done quite well).

I am not an expert in hockey at all, but my take is that perhaps Montgomery's system, which trades offense for defense compared to last year, is just not translating to the playoffs without super elite goaltending.

I also think Florida is secretly more of a 100-105 point team than 93 and underperformed badly - they can really score.

 

[Silverdude2167]

It's just been rather disappointing how they've played this series (defensively - offensively they've mostly done quite well).

I am not an expert in hockey at all, but my take is that perhaps Montgomery's system, which trades offense for defense compared to last year, is just not translating to the playoffs without super elite goaltending.

I also think Florida is secretly more of a 100-105 point team than 93 and underperformed badly - they can really score.

With average goaltending they win the series in 5.

To your final point, Florida is not a normal 8 seed, it is unfortunate that they have turned it around for this series. With that said they better not lose to this shit team. It is not ok to lose to teams who have playoff tickets available the day of. That should be grounds for contraction.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Watching Monty's post game, I mean, wow! He could use a little Bill Belichick in him.

"I looked him in the eyes."

Jesus Christ Monty, as the coach you've got to do a little more than just look your players in the eye and see if they seem "intense." What a clown show.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Watching Monty's post game, I mean, wow! He could use a little Bill Belichick in him.

"I looked him in the eyes."

Jesus Christ Monty, as the coach you've got to do a little more than just look your players in the eye and see if they seem "intense." What a clown show.

This was a few years before my time, but it reminds me of Don Zimmer's "he has icewater in his veins" comment about Bobbie Sprowl, right before Zimmer started Sprowl against the Yankees in the thick of the pennant race and Sprowl failed to get out of the first, walking 4 of the 6 batters he faced.

(Edit: Actually, maybe this series was Monty's Grady Little moment).

Everything else about this horrible game aside, I hate hate hate the stupid use of replay in the NHL. There's no way that a goal should be called back based on something that happened 12 seconds earlier and was not seen by the refs. Replay doesn't mix well with a game that isn't broken into discrete plays like football. I'm fine with using replay to adjudicate goals and maybe a few types of other things. But the idea of looking back to something nearly inconsequential and unseen by the refs that happened mid-play is just stupid - and allowing it means that you end up having periods of live play where only one team can legally score, which is asinine.

The way the NHL interprets hand passes is also incredibly fucking dumb. I remember a game from ~25 years ago when then-Bruin Jason Allison gloved a puck down for himself in the slot in the offensive zone. But before he could make a play on it a defenseman checked him off of it. The loose puck sat there in the slot for a second or so before another Bruin pounced on it and scored. Refs called it a hand pass despite the obvious lack of intent by Allison to do any such thing. Such a stupid rule.

 

[BaseballJones]

It seems even more obvious when the opposing coach made a goalie change and has been riding the hot hand (which isn’t really all that hot but Ullmark has been atrocious).

Bobrovsky hasn’t been very good. I’m this series the Bruins have scored at least three goals in every game. Last three games: 6, 3, and 4 goals. It’s not like Bobrovsky has come in and settled things down for them. Unfortunately he’s also capable of going bonkers for a game so that makes me nervous for game 7.

But to the Bruins situation…. I think maybe Monty is thinking that Ullmark is just better and the point of the goalie rotation during the year was to keep Ullmark fresh for the playoffs. I dunno…just guessing here.

But Ullmark hasn’t been great and Swayman is also capable of pitching a shutout so it seems that either you go with Swayman here or you have Ullmark on a very very very short leash.

I want game 7 to be remembered as the day that Jeremy Swayman saved the Bruins season.

 

[BaseballJones]

The last time the Bruins had a first round game 7 at home they gobsmacked Toronto 5-1, back in 2019.

Let’s do the same thing to Florida please.

 

[IdiotKicker]

They dominated this team in Game 3-4 without their two two centers. Then they dominated Game 5 but gave up two shitty giveaways in their own end. Last night they weren’t very good 5v5 but still scored enough that they should have won. If they play their game they are the much better team. We’ve seen it all series. Get Swayman in net, just play normal defensively, and they can put this away. I feel like crap because of last night because they were up 5-4 with 10 minutes left, but they can finish this if they just play their game for 60 minutes like they’ve already done twice this series.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Goaltending and defense - brilliant all year - and absolutely horrific for the majority of this series. Amazing.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Grady and Pedro On Ice.

 

[tims4wins]

Goaltending and defense - brilliant all year - and absolutely horrific for the majority of this series. Amazing.

Coaching too. Monty pushed more or less all the right buttons in the regular season.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Coaching too. Monty pushed more or less all the right buttons in the regular season.

Yup. Not getting Sway a start in any of these games is borderline criminal.

 

[Boston Brawler]

I posted something similar in the game thread last night, but it really is a case of changing the formula that was successful down the stretch in regards to the goaltender work load and the chemistry built post trade deadline. They finished 15-1 after two back to back losses 12 March and 14 March. Swayman was 8-0, Ullmark was 7-1. Ullmark played two in a row only once in that stretch and went 1-1.

Forbort played one game in that final 16 games. Foligno played zero.

I know the conventional wisdom is to ride a hot goalie, but the system wasn't broken and now it is.

 

[tims4wins]

I know the conventional wisdom is to ride a hot goalie, but the system wasn't broken and now it is.

Right, but there was no "hot goalie". They were both great pretty much all year long. I really wish they kept the rotation going. If they somehow win on Sunday, perhaps Monty will revisit.

 

[Boston Brawler]

Right, but there was no "hot goalie". They were both great pretty much all year long. I really wish they kept the rotation going. If they somehow win on Sunday, perhaps Monty will revisit.

Right, I should probably rephrase that. The wisdom is to go with your top goalie and hope they get hot or stay consistent. Ullmark just hasn't been either of those.

 

[FelixMantilla]

For all the poor play and questionable decisions, the Bruins have game 7, at home, against a team they are objectively better than. I'd put my money on them. Win game 7, regroup, and move forward. I'm sure most of us expected at least one game 7 if the Bruins won the cup this year - definitely not in the first round - but they wouldn't be the first team to face a scare in the first round and march on.

I said the same thing to myself in 1971.

 

[tims4wins]

For all the poor play and questionable decisions, the Bruins have game 7, at home, against a team they are objectively better than. I'd put my money on them. Win game 7, regroup, and move forward. I'm sure most of us expected at least one game 7 if the Bruins won the cup this year - definitely not in the first round - but they wouldn't be the first team to face a scare in the first round and march on.

2011 and 2013 both went to 7 in the first round, as we all remember. I’ve been reiterating to my son that the length of this series has zero predictive value on the rest of the playoffs. Just find a way tomorrow night.

 

[LogansDad]

2011 and 2013 both went to 7 in the first round, as we all remember. I’ve been reiterating to my son that the length of this series has zero predictive value on the rest of the playoffs. Just find a way tomorrow night.

I think the difference this year, and right now (for me anyway) is that I didn't feel like they were playing like an absolute dumpster fire going into Game 7 of those two series. I could be wrong, I was drinking a lot back then, but this just feels different to me.

And as much as I was ready for both Claude and Bruce to move on by the end, I never once felt like they were this overmatched, and definitely not by the literal losingest coach in NHL history.

Those Game 7's also didn't have one other issue hanging over them, with a certain Hall of Famer at the tail end of his career.

I have a lot of emotions about this series right now. Anger, frustration, confusion.

Confidence is definitely not very high on that list. And outside of game threading I am not usually a Debbie Downer around these parts, but I just don't see tomorrow being a lot of fun unless a seismic shift happens somewhere along the way.

 

[jk333]

My recollection of 2011 is that Thomas stole that series against Montreal, especially game 7. The team played very badly but made it through based on his play. Then, with the rematch against Philadelphia, there was major concern they’d be eliminated but instead they swept them and played better the rest of the playoffs.

Hockey is hard to predict.