Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

BoSox Rule

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,851
He had another huge year last year on a bigger stage than he’s done it before. He only needs to be 3/62 after this year for it to be worth it.
 

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
34,191
We have an opt out! Time for another season long discussion on the pros and cons of opting out!

 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
So won't that put them over $246M this year?
Yeah, I think Rosenthal is wrong about them announcing this as a 6 year/$160 million deal since that would put them well over the LT limit for this year. Didn't expect the opt out to be there.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,480
Definitely sign Kimbrel now that the tax has been blown through. If not, this makes absolutely no sense to structure the deal like this. There was literally no other reason not to sign him.
I think it was always more the multi-year commitment (and the impact on future payrolls while trying to resign Mookie/Sale/X) as opposed to going over $246M this year, $246M was a consideration but a secondary one.
 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
Definitely sign Kimbrel now that the tax has been blown through. If not, this makes absolutely no sense to structure the deal like this. There was literally no other reason not to sign him.
Agreed. They literally didn't sign ANYONE, even relatively cheap options like Robertson and Ottavino because they were so close to the cap, and now they structure this deal to go over the cap.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
10,696
St. Louis, MO
I think it was always more the multi-year commitment (and the impact on future payrolls while trying to resign Mookie/Sale/X) as opposed to going over $246M this year, $246M was a consideration but a secondary one.
Yes, but a week until Opening Day Kimbrel isn’t getting multiple years. The Sox would be silly not to sign him now for 1/17 or whatever the QO number was.
 

Murby

lurker
Mar 16, 2006
701
Boston Metro
This must mean Porcello isn't long for here. If they are going to hold onto him and go all in on a one-year repeat, then why not sign Kimbrel?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,943
deep inside Guido territory
I think it was always more the multi-year commitment (and the impact on future payrolls while trying to resign Mookie/Sale/X) as opposed to going over $246M this year, $246M was a consideration but a secondary one.
What team is giving him a multi-year deal at this point? He obviously overplayed his hand trying for the largest reliever deal in history. Now everyone is calling his bluff. How much more time can he waste and what better situation than to play another year with a championship ballclub?
 

LesterFan

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2010
11,329
Boston, MA
Alex Speier @alexspeier11s
Well, this is unexpected. Correction on Sale deal: It is NOT, according to a source, incorporating 2019. The team will NOT be flying past tier three with this deal. Deal will be announced as five-year, $145M, running from 2020-24. AAV will be below $29M with deferrals
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,943
deep inside Guido territory
Hold everyone's horses. Some incorrect reporting on the structure of the deal.


Well, this is unexpected. Correction on Sale deal: It is NOT, according to a source, incorporating 2019. The team will NOT be flying past tier three with this deal. Deal will be announced as five-year, $145M, running from 2020-24. AAV will be below $29M with deferrals
 

Murby

lurker
Mar 16, 2006
701
Boston Metro

Important correction by Alex Speier here saying the deal starts in 2020, and does *not* include this season, so the Red Sox will not be going into the upper tiers of the luxury tax.
 

MFYankees

lurker
Jul 20, 2017
47
I'm a bit new to the multi-tier CBT concept. Are there any penalties for going above $246M besides the tax increase from 42% to 75% for every dollar above $246M? I think we're at $237.5 now (per Cot's). If another team signs Kimbrel for just a 1-year contract do we still get a draft choice?
 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
I wonder what escalators would trigger that 6th year option. I'm honestly surprised Sale would have an opt out put in there, but I doubt he would opt out heading into his age 34 season anyway.
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
3,834
While 2019 will be manageable, 2020 will still be tough -- Sale, JD and Price will be making $86m, and if they extend Mookie, they'll be up to at least $110m for four guys, with a $208m cap. And that's assuming you don't re-sign X or Porcello.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
10,696
St. Louis, MO
While 2019 will be manageable, 2020 will still be tough -- Sale, JD and Price will be making $86m, and if they extend Mookie, they'll be up to at least $110m for four guys, with a $208m cap. And that's assuming you don't re-sign X or Porcello.
Porcello is definitely gone, today sealed that.
The Sox will need to get big contributions from Chavis, Groome, Houck, Shawaryn, etc..to fill voids cheaply.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
19,080
Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago
Some additional stuff: 1) Deferrals give deal a CBT figure of $25.6M. Sale wanted team to have flexibility to field a great roster. 2) Team has $20M option in 2025 that vests w/top-10 Cy finish in 2024; escalators could push that to $25M based on 2023 or 2024 Cy finishes.

Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 52m52 minutes ago
More stuff: There are escalators that can increase Sale’s salary by up to $2M/year starting in 2021 based on Cy Young finishes the previous year. 2) When Sale reaches 10 years of service time in 2020, the Red Sox will give him 10/5 rights to veto any trades.
 

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
925
Connecticut
Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago
Some additional stuff: 1) Deferrals give deal a CBT figure of $25.6M. Sale wanted team to have flexibility to field a great roster. 2) Team has $20M option in 2025 that vests w/top-10 Cy finish in 2024; escalators could push that to $25M based on 2023 or 2024 Cy finishes.
Even better than I thought. This very well (hopefully) can be a 6 year deal at the RS option at a price for the 6th year of 20-25 MM. If he has a top 10 CY finish, the RS would exercise the 2025 option at ~20+ MM, so the fact that it vests at that point is a non-issue. In addition, the deferrals to keep the AAV down.

Sale really consciously did the RS a solid here. Just more reason to root for the guy and let's hope the RS return the favor and find ways to keep him happy after this contract or career is over.
 

BoSox Rule

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,851
Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago
Some additional stuff: 1) Deferrals give deal a CBT figure of $25.6M. Sale wanted team to have flexibility to field a great roster. 2) Team has $20M option in 2025 that vests w/top-10 Cy finish in 2024; escalators could push that to $25M based on 2023 or 2024 Cy finishes.

Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 52m52 minutes ago
More stuff: There are escalators that can increase Sale’s salary by up to $2M/year starting in 2021 based on Cy Young finishes the previous year. 2) When Sale reaches 10 years of service time in 2020, the Red Sox will give him 10/5 rights to veto any trades.
The Red Sox aren’t giving him anything in 2020, those are the rights of every player in the league. Speir makes it seem like they’re giving him something in the negotiation and he’s been doing a really terrible job covering this.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,630
Boston, MA
The Red Sox aren’t giving him anything in 2020, those are the rights of every player in the league. Speir makes it seem like they’re giving him something in the negotiation and he’s been doing a really terrible job covering this.
Sale would have the 10, but not the 5 in 2020. They are giving him something of value
 

JimBoSox9

will you be my friend?
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2005
16,556
Mid-surburbia
The Red Sox aren’t giving him anything in 2020, those are the rights of every player in the league. Speir makes it seem like they’re giving him something in the negotiation and he’s been doing a really terrible job covering this.
If I'm reading this right (and I may not be), you're incorrect - if he gets 10/5 rights going into 2020, that will be after only 3 years of clock time with the Sox, so he's getting that protection two years early.
 

BoSox Rule

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,851
Yikes. Don’t I look like the idiot now then?

Edit - He could’ve just said a no trade claus not 10/5 rights
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
So it’s 3/90 for 2020-22, plus $55 million in insurance for Sale. He’s not opting into those last two years unless the first three have gone poorly and/or he’s hurt.

It’s almost certainly a good deal if Sale doesn’t get hurt, and the FO is in a better position than the rest of us to assess the likelihood of that. So I like it.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
So it’s 3/90 for 2020-22, plus $55 million in insurance for Sale. He’s not opting into those last two years unless the first three have gone poorly and/or he’s hurt.

It’s almost certainly a good deal if Sale doesn’t get hurt, and the FO is in a better position than the rest of us to assess the likelihood of that. So I like it.
Or if he continues to enjoy his time in Boston and doesn't want to change teams.
 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
So it’s 3/90 for 2020-22, plus $55 million in insurance for Sale. He’s not opting into those last two years unless the first three have gone poorly and/or he’s hurt.

It’s almost certainly a good deal if Sale doesn’t get hurt, and the FO is in a better position than the rest of us to assess the likelihood of that. So I like it.
Why do you think it's likely that Sale would opt out of that. Even if he wins a couple cy youngs before then, I don't see Sale being lured away by huge dollars then. That's clearly not Sale's endgame here.
 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
So Forbes was only off by one or two years and a hundred million dollars? Not bad.
That report was all speculation. He was basically quoting numbers that Sale could have probably gotten close to if he was a free agent coming off a healthy cy young season.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,951
Or if he continues to enjoy his time in Boston and doesn't want to change teams.
Why do you think it's likely that Sale would opt out of that. Even if he wins a couple cy youngs before then, I don't see Sale being lured away by huge dollars then. That's clearly not Sale's endgame here.
He’d still want to at least threaten to opt out of the last two years and secure a 3rd or 4th year at that point. Just like Kershaw did last winter.
 

DirtyWater90

Research Assistant
Nov 26, 2018
110
He’d still want to at least threaten to opt out of the last two years and secure a 3rd or 4th year at that point. Just like Kershaw did last winter.
Sure. And if he's still close to what he is now after that third year, I'm sure they'd be happy to give him those years.

What's crazy to me is that Verlander just got a higher AAV than Sale ($33 million) for his age 37-38 seasons. I know he's still great but that's risky especially if they don't keep Cole.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
Or if he continues to enjoy his time in Boston and doesn't want to change teams.

My point was that the front-loading of this deal makes the opt-out substantially more likely to be exercised than it is for most contracts. If Sale is happy with 2/55 for 2023-24, it will mean things have gone badly between now and then, or that he is dealing with an injury at that time and doesn’t want to hit the market while hurt.

That doesn’t mean Sale will leave after 2022 — just that his compensation will be adjusted to reflect his then-current market value.

In case it wasn’t clear from what I posted above, I like the deal. If Sale throws 500 innings from 2020-22, he’ll deliver well over $90 million in value. The $55 million insurance policy for 2023-24 is a reasonable price to pay for that expected value and is a risk that a big-market club like the Sox can afford to take.