Rosenthal: Nathan Eovaldi in agreement with Red Sox

mt8thsw9th

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Reactionary to getting their asses kicked by him is what I was thinking. Real happy with the way it worked out.
Ah, I get what you're saying now. I inferred the reaction was the money (in an overpay situation), not the signing itself. I had assumed he would be an Astro, so this was a bit of a relief.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Love the deal and am really intrigued by Eo's case. He's such a unique mix of risk/reward, performance & promise. I agree with those who believe that, if he stays healthy, he's very likely to be a steal at $17M. A full year of last year's numbers would be worth close to 2.5-3 WAR. I also agree that he's super risky and a lot of value is being placed on the hope that his arm holds up and his cutter has allowed him to reach a new performance plateau.

Both for the 2019 roster and beyond, I'm glad the Sox took this plunge. Plus it's a great birthday present for me! :D
 

AB in DC

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At this point, Wright can't be trusted to make 10 starts, let alone 25-30. Absolutely can not enter the season with him as the fifth starter. Trading Porcello is a backward step when everything the team has done so far this winter has been to maintain the status quo of a championship team. I just don't see it.
Agreed. I really hope this is just a matter of Porcello's contract and Eovaldi's new contract overlapping for just this coming year, with the Sox blowing past the luxury tax thresholds for 2018-2019 only and getting back under in 2020 once Porcello and Sandoval are off the books.

(edit: and if for some reason we have a 2014-style collapse this year, the team can always trade Porcello before the deadline.)
 

ricopetro6

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love what he did in the post season, but take away his first 2 starts in a boston uniform, wasn't he a below avg starter?
 

mt8thsw9th

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love what he did in the post season, but take away his first 2 starts in a boston uniform, wasn't he a below avg starter?
When he had a .376 BABIP? Regarding his two first starts, why would you remove his start against the Yankees when he did the same thing in September, and again in the playoffs against them?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think the idea that Porcello will get traded is right up there with trading Pedroia. Not because they can't (as in Pedey's case), but because why would they want to weaken the rotation going into a title defense just to squeak under the penalty limit.
You could add that Porcello is projected to produce almost exactly the value of his salary (as he did in 2018). No team is going to give up much prospect value for the privilege of paying a #3 starter at market rate. He's worth more on the mound than he is as a trade chip.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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love what he did in the post season, but take away his first 2 starts in a boston uniform, wasn't he a below avg starter?
In the 39 innings he pitched in the regular season after his first two starts in a Red Sox uniform, he posted a 4.62 ERA in 10 appearances (9 starts and one piggy-back relief spot behind Sale). Hardly a significant sample size. Not to mention that it is skewed by a bad 3-4 start stretch from which he bounced back well in no small part because of some guy named Pedro who spotted a flaw in his mechanics and worked with him to fix it.
 

ledsox

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Thank you DD, JH and also David Price. His befriending of Nate might not have been insignificant in him coming back.
 

In my lifetime

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I do think the RS learned from last year. Yea they could have stayed under the 2nd tax threshold. But then it is likely 2 of the following three would not be on the team for the playoff run: Eovaldi, Kinsler and Pearce. So they would have saved the 2nd tier penalties, but the RS 2018 championship would likely have never happened. RS management realizes the window for these championships is finite and sooner or later they will out of running in August. That will be the time for a reset and reload of farm system.
 

Sox Puppet

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The news about Wright has been anything but good. Surgery. Made a few starts. Lengthy DL. Made a few appearances. More DL. More surgery. I don't think Wright can even be written in pencil as a contributor right now.
Wright is the Markelle Fultz of pitchers
 

SouthernBoSox

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We really need to step back and think about how amazing this ownership group has been. I think we've grown to take them for granted. One day, whenever this team is under new ownership, we will talk about how this group did absolutely whatever it took and they need to be applauded.
 

Murby

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We really need to step back and think about how amazing this ownership group has been. I think we've grown to take them for granted. One day, whenever this team is under new ownership, we will talk about how this group did absolutely whatever it took and they need to be applauded.
I have my quibbles with them (mainly how Tito was treated), but otherwise this is correct. They’ve taken a franchise & have soared beyond all imagination. Kudos to them.
 

santadevil

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I'm very happy with this signing, 4/68 seems about perfect.

Oh and I just saw a Forbes estimate of Sox revenues, which they have at $453m in 2017, a number which has probably gone up. So it’s possible ownership has as few fucks to give as I do about these tax thresholds. They are winning big and making huge bank.
I definitely agree. Do you have a link for this article? I'd love to check it out
 

chrisfont9

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YTF

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love what he did in the post season, but take away his first 2 starts in a boston uniform, wasn't he a below avg starter?
Lets leave those two starts and take away his worst two starts or perhaps just look at the season as a whole and consider the guy had a damn fine year after a missing a season and a half following a second TJ surgery.
 

santadevil

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BaseballJones

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I don't really know why we're "taking away" Eovaldi's first two starts. Did they not count or something? I mean if you take away anyone's best outings his stats are going to look worse, and when you take away his worst, his stats are going to look better.

A more useful thing would be to consider when (if this happened) there was a change in his pitch pattern. For example, when did he start using that nasty cutter more? Did it develop into the uber-weapon this year? If so, when?
 

edoug

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I don't really know why we're "taking away" Eovaldi's first two starts. Did they not count or something? I mean if you take away anyone's best outings his stats are going to look worse, and when you take away his worst, his stats are going to look better.

A more useful thing would be to consider when (if this happened) there was a change in his pitch pattern. For example, when did he start using that nasty cutter more? Did it develop into the uber-weapon this year? If so, when?
The Russkie judges. Can't trust 'em.
 

jungleboy

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Does Nate's family (or all Italian Americans) mispronounce their name?
There's already one mispronounced Italian name in the rotation (Porcello; the Italian c makes a 'ch' sound before the front vowels, i and e, and a double letter indicates pausing on that letter longer, so it should be Por-chel-lo) so we might as well have another. Maybe it's the new market inefficiency.
 

Saints Rest

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Er, this comment on a Yankee blog, which says they got the numbers from Reddit.
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/ny_post7/#472741

But the original source for the revenues is Forbes, probably this:
https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/
$86M Operating income (on $458M Revenues) are pretty good numbers, especially considering that it wouldn't be that hard to argue that all that really matters for owners is growth in valuation for the exit moment.
That same Forbes articles values that Sox at $2.8Billion. Considering this ownership group bought the team in 2001 for $700M, that's roughly 8.5% annual growth on their initial investment.
 

ricopetro6

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I don't really know why we're "taking away" Eovaldi's first two starts. Did they not count or something? I mean if you take away anyone's best outings his stats are going to look worse, and when you take away his worst, his stats are going to look better.

A more useful thing would be to consider when (if this happened) there was a change in his pitch pattern. For example, when did he start using that nasty cutter more? Did it develop into the uber-weapon this year? If so, when?
I'm not taking them away, but just from memory he had 2 great starts as soon as he joined the team..then the rest of the regular season he was unimpressive if not disappointing
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Sometimes it's just easier to stop correcting people and go with the Americanized version of your last name
 

BigSoxFan

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$86M Operating income (on $458M Revenues) are pretty good numbers, especially considering that it wouldn't be that hard to argue that all that really matters for owners is growth in valuation for the exit moment.
That same Forbes articles values that Sox at $2.8Billion. Considering this ownership group bought the team in 2001 for $700M, that's roughly 8.5% annual growth on their initial investment.
And Forbes’ valuations tend to be low. If the Red Sox were put up for sale today, the price would be north of $3B.
 

chrisfont9

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There's already one mispronounced Italian name in the rotation (Porcello; the Italian c makes a 'ch' sound before the front vowels, i and e, and a double letter indicates pausing on that letter longer, so it should be Por-chel-lo) so we might as well have another. Maybe it's the new market inefficiency.
Maybe I'll make a plate of brushetta for their starts. [OK, now I am angering myself.]
 

chrisfont9

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$86M Operating income (on $458M Revenues) are pretty good numbers, especially considering that it wouldn't be that hard to argue that all that really matters for owners is growth in valuation for the exit moment.
That same Forbes articles values that Sox at $2.8Billion. Considering this ownership group bought the team in 2001 for $700M, that's roughly 8.5% annual growth on their initial investment.
Right? And a few mil in tax toward another WS win, surely they make that back pretty quickly on valuation. It's the smartest investment since we re-pointed all our bricks this summer.
 

gixer1k

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Eovaldi took the chance of damaging his arm to get a ring for us. If he's awesome for a year or two, I'm good with this signing.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Does Nate's family (or all Italian Americans) mispronounce their name?
http://www.thenameengine.com/pronounce/Nathan+Eovaldi/536
vs.

A lot do, and not by accident it doesn’t seem. Go to a cemetery that is largely Italian American. You’ll see the first names switching from Giuseppe and Fredo to John and James by 2nd generation. A lot assimilated real quick and let their name be Americanized after a generation (whether by choice or by just giving up and letting mispronunciations win), and gave their kids generic names. Phonetically Reetzo became Rizzo, etc.

This experience isn’t uniquely Italian, though. You’ve never met a Polish-American whose last name you’ve ever pronounced correctly in all likelihood. I mean unless you’ve met Mike Krzyzewski.
 

Sampo Gida

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Thought it a bit steep given the uncertainties that come with 2 TJS but if he can do what he did for us last year for at least 2 years its worth it
 

Spelunker

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Sometimes it's just easier to stop correcting people and go with the Americanized version of your last name
Italian-Americans would certainly never screw up the language of their forefathers.

 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm not taking them away, but just from memory he had 2 great starts as soon as he joined the team..then the rest of the regular season he was unimpressive if not disappointing
He had two fine starts, then a bad five-game stretch (with one pretty good start in the middle of it), then a pretty solid final month (1.35 September ERA). Overall, he had a 3.33 regular season ERA for us, with 48 K, 12 BB and 3 HR in 54 innings. I'll take that.
 
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Thrilled with this signing. While there is inherent risk, Nasty Nate actually deserves a contract of this magnitude unlike someone like Sandoval.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Standing up to Tyler Austin and pitching great in the playoffs suddenly makes the Allen Craig experiment worth it.
I don't know if I'd go that far. In September of this year, there were serious questions as to whether Kelly should be on the postseason roster. But after October, it's certainly an easier pill to swallow now.

I mean, Cherrington should have done better than Kelly/Craig for Lackey.
 

brandonchristensen

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I don't know if I'd go that far. In September of this year, there were serious questions as to whether Kelly should be on the postseason roster. But after October, it's certainly an easier pill to swallow now.

I mean, Cherrington should have done better than Kelly/Craig for Lackey.
I mean, Eovaldi got his deal based on his October. Joe Kelly is kind of doing the same thing.
 

bosockboy

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Not gonna lie, excited for 4 years of that grunt.

Eovaldi and his October reminds me of Schilling’s coming out party with the Phils in ‘93. He may be a red light guy who just performs his best when it counts in October, much like Schilling.
 

jungleboy

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Pepperoni means bell peppers in Italian. So American tourists in Italian restaurants are often surprised when their pepperoni pizza arrives and isn't what they thought it would be.
 

Al Zarilla

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Pepperoni means bell peppers in Italian. So American tourists in Italian restaurants are often surprised when their pepperoni pizza arrives and isn't what they thought it would be.
I didn't know that. Bell peppers are fine on pizza. Good thing for us that pepperoni doesn't translate to peanut butter or something.
 

shaggydog2000

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I'm surprised he didn't get more, considering the demand for pitching, but I guess the market is getting a bit smarter. If Dombrowski thinks it can work with the cap, that's good enough for me.
 

FinanceAdvice

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If it's actually 4/68, I am very pleased.

Screw it. Let's go back-to-back.
I've been saying since the WS win to go back-to-back. With Eovaldi signing I think the chances increased exponentially. The dude can flat out pitch. I'm sure they went over physicals with a fine tooth comb re: the TJ's. Great age, can handle Boston pressure, fits into what I consider the best 1-5 rotation in all of baseball. Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, Rodriquez.
Yes I'd try to keep Porcello.

Now with the rotation set, OF set and IF set ( albeit serious question with Pedroia) with the resigning of Pearce, I think on paper Sox are the presumptive favorites to win in '19