I want no part of those max numbers, those are franchise crippling and in 2020 he would be 33 making $22M
Rondo is the new captain
- Thread starter MyDaughterLovesTomGordon
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Jer said:
I believe you could renegotiate his 2015 salary up to the max, so like 4 million extra there, and then the signing bonus would be on the extension, which would end up being something like 5-6 million.
So I think the absolute maximum you can offer him in a signing bonus is something like 9-10 million, and that's only if you have the cap space at the beginning of next year when you're renegotiating/extending.
Now they could have that much if there are more trades coming of say, Bass, but with the Anthony option and the Bradley cap hold they're at like 54 million of salary, and so they're not going to be able to offer all that anyway.
Me either, and he won't get anything close to that as a FA. In fact, I've been disappointed in his play so far. I realize that the last few games have been a mid season training camp, but that doesn't mean he has to walk the ball up on every possession. Pressey does a much better job of pushing the tempo. Maybe Rondo played for Rivers too damn long.
TroyOLeary said:
I read that incorrectly. Damn these rules are extensive. I'll rework my scenarios a little later.
Extended contracts can only run four seasons, so an extension would only be for three years past 2015, with the signing bonus it works out to three years at around $17 million per (slightly over that). If he goes UFA he can sign a 5 year deal here for somewhere around $100 million, or a four year deal with someone else for close to $80 million. That's obviously his target, which is why I suspect that he's going to be outbound, this year if they get a suitable offer, but more than likely this summer after he turns down an extension again. (Keep in ming that this is exactly what happened with Brooklyn in their negotiating with Deron Williams and the Clippers with Chris Paul, both guys refused extensions and waited to re-sign in free agency for those $20 million per paydays.)Jer said:
The injury is no excuse. If he can't push the ball up the floor instead of walking it up, he shouldn't be playing at all.
Even if Rondo proves his knee is 100% and starts playing better, he isn't going to get Chris Paul money because he isn't as good as Paul. And if he does collect a massive payday in free agency it will likely be from some rebuilding team that's way below the cap.
Finally, given how the season is going and the draft is shaping up, the pg on the next Celtics contender may be Marcus Smart or Dante Exuum, not Rondo. Rondo is expendible and I expect him to be gone on draft night if he starts playing hardball.
Brickowski said:
I'd give him a little slack. I dont think its been a full year since he tore the ACL, he is playing while wearing a brace and he is on a minute restriction. Furthermore, a lot of athletes with ACL injuries will say that overcoming the mental hurdle and having confidence in the knee again is just as difficult as the physical recovery. I remember Brady saying something to that effect and he is as tough as the come. Taking all that into account, its not surprising that he is a bit tentative and not his typical aggressive self. Give him a month and lets see where he is at.
He's just costing himself money with his play. He's not going to rack up dimes penetrating and dishing with this team. They don't shoot well enough. There's no more Pierce, no more Garnett. If he wants to look good, he has to push the ball.
Actually, I think Rudy Pemberton's outcome is more likely: he'll shut it down after the all-star break. I don't see him sucking for a month and then snapping out of it.
Based on the recent news it looks like he is going to free agency, and the market wont look at his first month back from injury to critically.
Dont get me wrong I would love to see him push the ball too, but I think you have to give him time to ease back into things. His game is predicated on speed, quickness and cuts we really should expect him to look like a different player for a while.
Let me get this straight, he comes back in a reasonable timeframe to play for an awful team who is going nowhere and sucks offensively just to shut it down? It seems to me the guy genuinely wants to play, the anti Derrick Rose
Dont get me wrong I would love to see him push the ball too, but I think you have to give him time to ease back into things. His game is predicated on speed, quickness and cuts we really should expect him to look like a different player for a while.
Let me get this straight, he comes back in a reasonable timeframe to play for an awful team who is going nowhere and sucks offensively just to shut it down? It seems to me the guy genuinely wants to play, the anti Derrick Rose
Any assessment of Rondo needs to account for the fact that it will take him about 4-6 weeks to get back into game shape and speed. A year layoff after a serious knee injury is not trivial. And we may not see "vintage" Rondo until April, if he hasn't been shut down by then, or possibly November.
Unless he's re-injuries himself, I expect he'll play through it. He's too significant of an asset to tie that much uncertainty to. Danny needs to know what he's got heading into the summer.
I don't expect him to put up classic Rondo numbers. If you look at guys that come back from ACLs, they typically have depressed numbers for a while. And since quickness was such a big part of his game, I doubt he'll be helping the winning percentage in a significant way, so there's no need to stash him for tanking. They can always limit his minutes instead of shutting him down.
I don't expect him to put up classic Rondo numbers. If you look at guys that come back from ACLs, they typically have depressed numbers for a while. And since quickness was such a big part of his game, I doubt he'll be helping the winning percentage in a significant way, so there's no need to stash him for tanking. They can always limit his minutes instead of shutting him down.
IMHO this has less to do with his knee and more to do with his head. But we'll see over the next few weeks I suppose.
As I mentioned upthread, overcoming the mental hurdle and feeling confident in the knee takes a while. We have seen that time and time again with athletes, I dont know why you are being so hard on him
Brickowski said:
It's almost surely both, with the added factor that he is clearly not in game shape yet.
The times he has tried pushing the ball, he obviously does not have the same speed and quickness. If he could be faster, trust me, he would be.
It's sort of silly to say the injury is no excuse. It's obviously the issue, either directly or indirectly. Analyzing what he could do better is fair, but to expect anything close to the real version of Rondo right away is nuts.
I'd settle for an increasing number of glimpses of his old ability over the next month or so. If he's looking normal (or close to it) towards the end of the year, that would be great.
Apparently we had the signing bonus wrong. It can be up to 15% of the total contract, but it's not on top of the contract. So if he signs an extension it's at around 3/45 and 15% of the total (approximately 6.75 million) can be paid in the first year, but the remaining two years need to be reduced by that much. So there won't be an extension, he's going the UFA route. Which leads me to believe that Ainge's mention of the extension is laying the groundwork for a future trade.
Rondo without his freakish rubber-man athleticism is a disaster. Can't shoot, can't defend, and still tons of turnovers.
ifmanis5 said:
It doesn't look like his struggles so far are really athletic ones to me. His stamina sucks but the quickness is there still. He's trying to run the offense the way he would with the big three in town and its predictably failing. He needs to be more active trying to get to the rim and stop pounding the rock and waiting for people to get to their spots.
In fairness, he's not passing it off to 3 HOFs any more, but I see nothing that makes me want to give him a max deal or go forward with him. They haven't won since his return and I don't think it's a coincidence. It's a shame he lost 2 years in the prime of his career.The X Man Cometh said:
ifmanis5 said:
I agree, but this could be a blessing in disguise for the Celtics.
They get him at a bargain now if they want to keep him. His "fit" is so specific already, combine that with the question marks whether he'll attain his previous form and the C's will likely be bidding against themselves. Downside is that his trade value is suffering, but if we can get him back on numbers that reflect his current play, and he returns to form, he becomes an asset again. If we need to overpay let him walk.
I think things will "solve themselves" with Rajon.
Agreed.nighthob said:
And by then he'll be pushing 30 with a bad wheel, a reputation for moodiness and still can't shoot. Should be a Gold Rush for him.
If you're claiming that his knee is permanently damaged, I wouldn't want Boston re-signing him at all. Regardless of the price. As his game is predicated on quickness if it's gone for good there's no reason to give him anything. However all reports are that the knee is structurally sound and it's just a matter of time before he gets back to speed.
The X Man Cometh said:
I would pretty strongly disagree here. I mean, its hard to tease out exactly how much is fatigue and how much is a lack of quickness/speed, but he is a shell of himself athletically right now.
Sure his teammates suck, so that makes his nice passes marginally less useful. But he can't consistently get into the paint or lead the fast break at all. And when he does, he can't explode to the rim whatsoever. He had been getting worse at one-on-one D before the injury, but now he has no prayer of keeping up, particularly when screened. He is moving extremely gingerly and tentatively out there at all times.
I'm sure a significant part is just mental, and slowly he will (hopefully) see that he can test his athletic limits without his knee exploding. But this is nothing remotely close to the same old Rondo with worse teammates. It will still probably take a good amount of time before we see that consistently.
Does his recuperating knee require him to walk the ball up the floor? If so, then he ought not to be playing. When he gets the ball, I want him to dribble it up as fast as he can, to the foul line if possible (or beyond). Is that too much to ask? He should pretend he's running wind sprints to get back into condition. After that, I don't care what he does. He can miss a shot, dribble it off his knee, hand the ball to an opposing player... whatever.
Whenever he walks it up the floor and raises his arm to call a play, I know it's likely to be a wasted possession. The defense has already set up, and the guys on the floor with him can't execute in the half court like Pierce and Garnett.
He's worse than tentative right now. He's unwatchable.
Whenever he walks it up the floor and raises his arm to call a play, I know it's likely to be a wasted possession. The defense has already set up, and the guys on the floor with him can't execute in the half court like Pierce and Garnett.
He's worse than tentative right now. He's unwatchable.
I have no way of knowing the extent of the injury but I can say that non-Rubber Man Rondo is a fail.nighthob said:
Perhaps, like a fastball pitcher who later learns how to pitch without an A+ fastball, he can possibly re-imagine how to be a point guard but I highly doubt that is going to happen. Taking away his super quickness isn't something he can overcome, in my opinion.
Rondo is 27 years old. Still a very good chance to make a full athletic recovery from an ACL tear. I agree if he doesn't get the speed and quickness back, he will not overcome it by changing his game in other ways (at least not enough to be very good). He needs the speed and quickness. Hopefully it was an isolated ACL injury, and his meniscus and cartilage weren't badly damaged as well.
Rondo is a year removed from playing competitive basketball, and is still mentally and physically not himself. This is NORMAL. That doesn't mean he is hurt, it just means these things take time.
If this version of Rondo is unwatchable.... I have a simple solution. Don't watch.
Rondo is a year removed from playing competitive basketball, and is still mentally and physically not himself. This is NORMAL. That doesn't mean he is hurt, it just means these things take time.
If this version of Rondo is unwatchable.... I have a simple solution. Don't watch.
I've always been firmly in the "you dont pay Rondo max money" camp, needless to say how he's playing right now isn't going to influence me one way or the other.
The problem is his value league wide. No contender is going to give you a young player for him, and no rebuilding team is going to give you a good pick. Going to be very interesting what Danny is able to harvest from Rondo. Best bet is probably bite the bullett a little and package Rondo with Gerald Wallace for an expiring bad contact next year plus a 2015 1st. Haven't glanced yet at what expirings are available, but people dreaming of a huge return on malcontent no jump shot PG coming off an ACL are a little delusional.
It's mind-boggling that the C's had the best offer on the table and almost scored Chris Paul for this guy a couple years ago, and people around Boston were against the deal.
The problem is his value league wide. No contender is going to give you a young player for him, and no rebuilding team is going to give you a good pick. Going to be very interesting what Danny is able to harvest from Rondo. Best bet is probably bite the bullett a little and package Rondo with Gerald Wallace for an expiring bad contact next year plus a 2015 1st. Haven't glanced yet at what expirings are available, but people dreaming of a huge return on malcontent no jump shot PG coming off an ACL are a little delusional.
It's mind-boggling that the C's had the best offer on the table and almost scored Chris Paul for this guy a couple years ago, and people around Boston were against the deal.
I think those dreams are fairly well dashed right now.southshoresoxfan said:
The good news is that he is really helping us tank. The bad news is that he could hardly have picked a worse time to tank his own value. Real shame, National TV Rondo was fun to watch. He single-handedly beat the Heat and LeBron at their best, refs be damned.
Morbid fascination gets the better of me. Besides, they're fun to watch when guys like Pressey and Chris Johnson are on the floor, you know, guys who are actually trying.
BTW, I don't buy for one second the idea that he walks the ball up the floor because of his knee or because his conditioning is that bad. There are 40 year olds with pot bellies playing at Cold Spring Park who get the ball up the court faster than Rondo.
ifmanis5 said:
Agree. I also DO think he will return to that level. I've felt all along b est case is he sucks/stays out long enough to guarantee a top 5 pick then show flashes down the stretch and the C's are able to do something at draft day. Some of the local bloggers/reporters are a little too enamored with the "rondo is who we are rebuilding around" sentiment, and I just don't see how committing 20mil to a non-scorer helps you raise banner 18.
Just looking at a list of UFA's going into 2015-16 season. Here's some names w contracts at/around Rondos 12mil due in 2014
Jeremy Lin
Eric Gordon (player option at 15mil, hard to see him not using that)
Marcus Thronton
LaMarcus Aldridge (hard to see him not signing an extension/leaving Portland)
Love (16.75 player option, i think he's gone)
Asik
There's more, but thats most of the 9-12 mil crowd.
I'd be calling Morey about taking Lin and Asik off his hands this summer, thrown in with a 1st round pick plus Terrance Jones for Rondo and Wallace's shit contract this summer. Something along those lines. There just isn't a ton of deals to be made out there right now
Jeremy Lin
Eric Gordon (player option at 15mil, hard to see him not using that)
Marcus Thronton
LaMarcus Aldridge (hard to see him not signing an extension/leaving Portland)
Love (16.75 player option, i think he's gone)
Asik
There's more, but thats most of the 9-12 mil crowd.
I'd be calling Morey about taking Lin and Asik off his hands this summer, thrown in with a 1st round pick plus Terrance Jones for Rondo and Wallace's shit contract this summer. Something along those lines. There just isn't a ton of deals to be made out there right now
Lin, Asik, Jones, and a first for Rondo and Wallace would be a huge return. Why the hell would Houston make that move for a "malcontent no jump shot PG coming off an ACL?" There is not a salary win in there for them and it does not appear as though you think Rondo is the best player in that deal. Also, Morey is seeing what we are seeing. Unless Rondo returns to form soon, Morey can do better.southshoresoxfan said:
Overcoming mental hurdles seems to be a foreign concept to you. Has your performance and behavior ever been affected by nervousness in your life?Brickowski said:
Brickowski said:
You are so irrational and out of your mind on the Rondo topic it has become comical.
FWIW, Doc liked it when Rondo ran. He often was a one man fast break because no one could keep up.
No player just sprints up and down the court on every possession, regardless of the game situation and regardless of the position of his teammates and defenders. Suggesting Rondo should do that is totally absurd. Most PG walk or jog the ball up the court on most possessions. Rondo will push the pace more and more as he gets his stamina, strength, and confidence back. Until then, chill out.
Irrational? I'm just looking at what I see on the floor. Stop making excuses for the guy. Once again, if he lacks the stamina and strength for the big leagues, Rondo ought to spend a month or two with the Red Claws. The Celtics can tank perfectly well without him.
fairlee76 said:
Oh i couldnt agree more. You have to hope a GM values Rondo. Not even sure he makes sense in Houston because Hardens better with the ball. Just tossing out what would be considered a "haul" two expirings, a late 1st and a developing nice player in Jones. Makes me wonder what Danny will accept, obv he needs to promote that he things his vaule is still very high, but if this deal is getting scoffed at I'm afraid of what will actually be heading out way for Rondo
Brickowski said:
Why? Will he get back into form faster there? Will it reduce his risk of re-injury? Will it help his trade value?
The answer to all of those questions is no. If anything, playing in Maine would only slow his return to being 100% because, even once completely healthy, he would have to get reacclimated to the pace and skill level of the NBA game. I doubt the change has any material impact on his risk of re-injury. As for trade value, playing in the D-League probably is worse, in the short term, than struggling in the NBA. Long term, it doesn't matter. Once Rondo is playing at full speed again, no one will care how he did in his first 5, 10, or 20 games back from his knee injury. He has an established talent level and if he is playing at that level, the fact that he played below it for a brief period after returning from an ACL tear will be less than meaningless.
So, once again, why do you care so much? As you acknowledge in your post, it's not like the team is trying to win this year.
Brickowski said:
Lets stick with your line of thought, that you want him to push the ball at every single opportunity. Have you ever considered that Stevens isnt advocating for that?
In the games Rondo has played we have taken 84 shots a game, from Dec to Jan 15th we averaged 83.5 shots per game. In the first month when we were trying to figure out how we were going to fill the PG position we averaged 81.2 shots per game. At that game we were using Bradley and Crawford both are better utilized for their athleticism and quickness instead of their half court offensive orchestration, yet Stevens really didnt seem to be pushing the pace. I'm not sure if Stevens simply doenst like a fast paced game, we probably wont find out until he has some real talent to work with, but its clear that with this team he doesnt want to play Nellie ball. So perhaps your blame is misplaced.
Before you say something like 'its what I see with my eyes' or 'he needs to push it at every opportunity' or 'he is slow', directly address these numbers and this line of thought. That the slow pace of this team might be completely intentional and by design.
They should be getting 90+ shots every game. Last night sans Rondo they had 87, even though Pressey had a terrible game.
The slow pace could be by design. If so, they're blatantly tanking.
The slow pace could be by design. If so, they're blatantly tanking.
Brickowski said:
They're 18th in the league in pace. Basically the middle of the pack, and play at almost an identical pace as the tanking Indiana Pacers.
Brickowski said:
I couldn't let this go. I'd rather watch Rondo play basketball on crutches than continue to watch Phil Pressey brick open threes. Pressey has one NBA skill - his passing ability - and even that is negated by his carelessness with the basketball. He's below replacement level and has no place on an NBA roster.
Rondo hasn't looked good, but everything I've read from Rondo, the coaching staff, and reporters around the team suggest that Rondo is treating these games like the preseason. And he should be. I can't fathom why you'd want the team's best player sprinting up the floor for no real reason. It's not like the Celtics have a roster full of guys that can run. I don't think we can say anything definitively about Rondo's peak athleticism after the handful of games we've seen. That's exactly what this season is for - get draft position, clear cap room where you can, ease Rondo back to full health slowly.
It's also worth noting - I can't imagine a worse roster for Rondo to play with. No one can create their own shot, which means a whole lot of possessions end with the ball getting kicked back to Rondo with 4 seconds on the shot clock to launch a contested midrange jumper. And they're not a particularly athletic bunch, especially at the big man position. Really, if they wanted to win games, I'd like to see them play a lot more small lineups with Wallace or Green at the four. But with three young rookie big men they're trying to develop, plus the injuries to the guards, that hasn't really been possible. It's just a terrible roster all the way around in terms of actually playing on the court together. The total is way less than the sum of its parts.
Brickowski said:
Its about odds. If you are playing Blackjack and counting cards the odds are in your favor and you want to play as many hands as possible. If you are playing without counting and the odds are in the house's favor, the longer you play the better the chances are that the house wins. Ergo, if you have a talent advantage in the NBA the odds are in your favor and the longer you play the better your chance to win. If you are at a talent disadvantage the longer (more possessions) you play the better your chances of losing. So pushing the pace doesnt gain them that much, what they should do if they want to win with this untalented group is probably something unorthodox hence fewer possessions.
They don't shoot well enough to play slowdown basketball. As CreightonGumbanich points out, the don't have guys who can create their own shots. It's a roster much more suited to D"Antoni ball. Shoot quickly to maximize the number of offensive possessions.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
The Pacers have a roster suited to playing in the half-court. The Celtics are playing at a pace which is completely incompatible with their roster.
Trying to win with this team in the half court is basically emphasizing player development over winning games.