Romeo Langford - Pick #14

Cesar Crespo

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Since there is no handy statistical method to adjust for the impact of a once-in-a-century pandemic, let's just ignore or minimize it and question player motivation instead.
Because ignoring it is what I did. I didn't bring it up or anything, the exact opposite of ignoring it.

Is Romeo your brother? God forbid someone ask what the players were doing during the pandemic.

Have to have those Green tinted glasses on 24/7. Can't say anything that isn't 100% positive, ever. Can't read properly either.
 

HomeRunBaker

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After the first few weeks this year, Semi looked like he turned a corner, but nope...another 2021 Celtic slap in the face.

Besides his limitations offensively, I'm not a huge fan of his defense. With the way the game is called, wingspan is so important in order to challenge defensively, bodying up isn't enough. Maybe Hanlen can get him to hang from a chin-up bar all summer
Forget Hanlen, can we get him a summer with Mark Lookinland instead?


2F42E635-39E6-499B-AA97-254F1D4E490E.jpeg
 

Eddie Jurak

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Because ignoring it is what I did. I didn't bring it up or anything, the exact opposite of ignoring it.

Is Romeo your brother? God forbid someone ask what the players were doing during the pandemic.

Have to have those Green tinted glasses on 24/7. Can't say anything that isn't 100% positive, ever. Can't read properly either.
No, you didn't ignore it, you did the rhetorical move of mentioning it to insulate youself from criticism. But it is clear where you stand: no NBA player of value would spend the first 650 minutes of his career looking lost and clueless, regardless of one-in-a-lifetime extenuating circumstances. Maybe. We'll see next season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No, you didn't ignore it, you did the rhetorical move of mentioning it to insulate youself from criticism. But it is clear where you stand: no NBA player of value would spend the first 650 minutes of his career looking lost and clueless, regardless of one-in-a-lifetime extenuating circumstances. Maybe. We'll see next season.
I mentioned it when people were talking about Tyler Herro. You are such a homer you can't even follow a discussion. Keep making up claims of things I didn't say though. It's the only thing you know how to do.

edit: god forbid someone thinks Romeo isn't going to be good either. Get over yourself dude. Some of you are the biggest prospect humpers.
 

the moops

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Maybe the smart thing for him to do is take his talents, such as they are, to Europe and come back in a few years as a plus spot up shooter from 3. Then he'd have a legit NBA role despite all of his limitations.
I would say that he currently does have a legit role in the NBA. Not everyone is going to have complete games. He has consistently gotten 15 minutes a night and shoots decent enough from three to have a role as a 8th or 9th man on a team
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would say that he currently does have a legit role in the NBA. Not everyone is going to have complete games. He has consistently gotten 15 minutes a night and shoots decent enough from three to have a role as a 8th or 9th man on a team
He started to lose that role at the end of the year but he was also returning from an injury. I'm curious what kind of deals he gets this summer. I wouldn't be too shocked if it was Europe. I don't see him getting anything more than the minimum to fill out some team's 10-12 spot.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I would say that he currently does have a legit role in the NBA. Not everyone is going to have complete games. He has consistently gotten 15 minutes a night and shoots decent enough from three to have a role as a 8th or 9th man on a team
On a bad team, maybe. I would say.I think he has a place in the NBA as a situational players who gets run when there is a favorable matchup. I don't think there is a regular role for him if he's not a better shooter. Maybe on certain teams.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ironically, Semi would probably be a good fit in Milwaukee next to Giannis rather than defending him. Milwaukee could do better though.
 

benhogan

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Or just let Semi leave in FA and not care at all what he does this summer.
this is probably the last we see of Semi, Waters, Carsen, Tacko, Parker in Green. None worked out, not much $$$ or draft capital spent on them. End of the bench flotsam, optionality expired worthless, happens 90% of the time.

I find signing Kemba Walker to a max contract 100x more franchise debilitating than any kind of 2nd round/deep bench prospect humping. YMMV
 

Cesar Crespo

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this is probably the last we see of Semi, Waters, Carsen, Tacko, Parker in Green. None worked out, not much $$$ or draft capital spent on them. End of the bench flotsam, optionality expired worthless, happens 90% of the time.

I find signing Kemba Walker to a max contract 100x more franchise debilitating than any kind of 2nd round/deep bench prospect humping. YMMV
Carsen is guaranteed for next year and they have an option on Parker. I'd guess both might be back if they need to fill out the back end of the roster with bodies. Kornet is in the same boat.
 

Eddie Jurak

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this is probably the last we see of Semi, Waters, Carsen, Tacko, Parker in Green. None worked out, not much $$$ or draft capital spent on them. End of the bench flotsam, optionality expired worthless, happens 90% of the time.

I find signing Kemba Walker to a max contract 100x more franchise debilitating than any kind of 2nd round/deep bench prospect humping. YMMV
That is why they could be gone, but it is also why they might return.
 

benhogan

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That is why they could be gone, but it is also why they might return.
Yea agreed. BUT I'm expecting some off-season upheaval/trades. The $1.8MM guaranteed for Carsen means next to nothing, easily be thrown into a deal or stretched. Dunking on 2nd round picks on less than vet min contracts for the 14/15th roster spot is borderline silly.
 

Jimbodandy

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I mentioned it when people were talking about Tyler Herro. You are such a homer you can't even follow a discussion. Keep making up claims of things I didn't say though. It's the only thing you know how to do.

edit: god forbid someone thinks Romeo isn't going to be good either. Get over yourself dude. Some of you are the biggest prospect humpers.
Fwiw, I think that most of us are prospect humpers, yourself included. We just hump different prospects sometimes.

I'm sure on Soxprospects right now, two of those cats are arguing between Casas, Duran, and Downs, and some other guy is laughing at all of them and citing some 18yo kid in the DR who has 97 with movement but can't find the zone with Waze. It's the nature of the beast.

Edit: to be clear, some of us are more likely to push prospects from outside of the org.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fwiw, I think that most of us are prospect humpers, yourself included. We just hump different prospects sometimes.

I'm sure on Soxprospects right now, two of those cats are arguing between Casas, Duran, and Downs, and some other guy is laughing at all of them and citing some 18yo kid in the DR who has 97 with movement but can't find the zone with Waze. It's the nature of the beast.

Edit: to be clear, some of us are more likely to push prospects from outside of the org.
We are. Prospect humping is fun. At the same time, people should be allowed to have negative outlooks on players. They should also try to be consistent on how they judge prospects. I like Tyler Herro. I think he'll be a solid rotational player like Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart etc. On the flipside, he really didn't improve that much this offseason (outside of passing). That is a bad sign. I've pointed that out numerous times on other players including Romeo Langford.

I also don't think it's outlandish to be curious what NBA players were doing between March and August to stay in game shape. It would be outlandish to judge them for it, but that's not what I was doing. If Romeo Langford comes back next year and shoots .425 from 3 on 532 attempts, I'd be extremely curious what he did over the summer. If he comes back next year and looks awful defensively, I'd also be curious.

I'm not questioning his motivation in anyway. All I've heard all season long is how hard Romeo Langford has trained while being injured. The effort is clearly there. But, it's also possible he'd be much better doing Tatum's program than his own. Almost every single person in the world could work smarter, not harder.

Maybe I'm biased towards players on the outside because I think this board tends to dismiss that other team's young players improve too. I remember 3-4 years back saying how I'd gladly give Marcus Smart up for Devin Booker and the response was very anti Devin Booker. Brandon Ingram is another player that was hated on (though some of that is Laker hate and JB love). In my opinion, young players who put up offensive numbers but are bad defensively get underrated on this board. Young players are often terrible at defense. Often times, they play on awful teams full of young players that are bad on defense, thus compounding the problem. Then there are the players who contribute nothing to the box score. They tend not to develop well.

Another thing I noticed is people point to players like Terry Rozier and Jimmy Butler to make a point. They are outliers.

I'm really high on Nesmith anyway. I think next year he'll be averaging something like 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal on great shooting and passable D in a 25 minute role. Some could call that humping.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There are also young players that play on good teams that are good on defense. Those players end up looking better on D than they are. See Grant Williams.
 

Jimbodandy

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Fwiw, that's a fantastic fucking post. Thanks for putting it into the universe.

We're all right and wrong about guys sometimes, and that's ok too. So are the pro evaluators. We tend to remember our hits more than our misses, but nobody is perfect.

Having an opinion and being prepared to speak to it and defend it is good. I learn from you and others here constantly. We all have different biases. It'd be fucking boring if we didn't.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He started to lose that role at the end of the year but he was also returning from an injury. I'm curious what kind of deals he gets this summer. I wouldn't be too shocked if it was Europe. I don't see him getting anything more than the minimum to fill out some team's 10-12 spot.
What Euro league is going to pay Semi more than the $1.9m min for a 5th year veteran? That number will actually increase once the new revenues are released. Americans need to put up numbers overseas to stick like a Shane Larkin or Mike James and Semi isn’t that type of player.

If he works hard and has a good attitude that’s not a bad living for someone with limited ability who is looking to hang on in the league. Look around these playoffs at some of the second unit guys getting minutes, guys who didn’t have teams a couple months ago, then factor in expansion over the next few years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What Euro league is going to pay Semi more than the $1.9m min for a 5th year veteran? That number will actually increase once the new revenues are released.

If he works hard and has a good attitude that’s not a bad living for someone with limited ability who is looking to hang on in the league. Look around these playoffs at some of the second unit guys getting minutes, guys who didn’t have teams a couple months ago, then factor in expansion over the next few years.
I said I wouldn't be shocked if it was Europe. I fully expect him to be in the NBA, just filling the back end of the roster rather than being the 8th or 9th man. There will be more DNP-CD's in his future.
 

Ed Hillel

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Bruce Bowen learned how to shoot. Anyone can learn how to shoot. If Romeo is committed to his career he’s going to be fine.
Shooting is probably the skill most easily improved, but I wouldn’t say “anyone can learn to shoot.” We don’t know his ceiling, just have a pretty good idea of his floor.
 

Cellar-Door

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Shooting is probably the skill most easily improved, but I wouldn’t say “anyone can learn to shoot.” We don’t know his ceiling, just have a pretty good idea of his floor.
Yeah, I agree with this. Outside of positional defense I think shooting is the place where you can most often have a huge jump for a player, and so I would say it's the easiest to significantly improve, but at the same time, some guys work really hard on their shot and it just doesn't happen for them.
 

lovegtm

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Given where Romeo is at with his shooting, his clearest path to playing time would be to work hard on his ball-handling over the summer. He looks alright when you can put him out there with 3 good offensive players + a center. If he wants minutes in those lineups, he needs to be able to bring the ball up the floor and run an initial action or whatever, so that the team can play Tatum/Brown/Fournier or Tatum/Fournier/Nesmith next to him, and steal minutes when a ballhandler like Smart has to sit.

(This assuming Kemba is gone. Dear lord, please let Kemba be gone.)
 

Eddie Jurak

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Given where Romeo is at with his shooting, his clearest path to playing time would be to work hard on his ball-handling over the summer. He looks alright when you can put him out there with 3 good offensive players + a center. If he wants minutes in those lineups, he needs to be able to bring the ball up the floor and run an initial action or whatever, so that the team can play Tatum/Brown/Fournier or Tatum/Fournier/Nesmith next to him, and steal minutes when a ballhandler like Smart has to sit.

(This assuming Kemba is gone. Dear lord, please let Kemba be gone.)
I don't see any way Kemba will be gone. I think the Celtics are better served by letting him play out his contract than by attaching legitimate assets to him to get rid of him. Who is taking Kemba off their hands, even for nothing in return?
 

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I don't see any way Kemba will be gone. I think the Celtics are better served by letting him play out his contract than by attaching legitimate assets to him to get rid of him. Who is taking Kemba off their hands, even for nothing in return?
Yeah, why would any team in its right mind want Kemba, who has an insane contract and is breaking down physically? (I guess the same could have been said for John Wall, but would Houston do that deal again?)
 

lovegtm

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I don't see any way Kemba will be gone. I think the Celtics are better served by letting him play out his contract than by attaching legitimate assets to him to get rid of him. Who is taking Kemba off their hands, even for nothing in return?
You don't see any way? We've seen too many "unmovable" contracts get moved the past couple years for me to buy that.

The framework is pretty simple: you find a similar albatross contract that is attached to a player who is a slightly better fit, and then pay the difference. Just as an example, OKC probably listens to Kemba+a 1st for Horford, especially since Kemba probably opts out after a year if he's sent to basketball hell.
 

Eddie Jurak

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You don't see any way? We've seen too many "unmovable" contracts get moved the past couple years for me to buy that.

The framework is pretty simple: you find a similar albatross contract that is attached to a player who is a slightly better fit, and then pay the difference. Just as an example, OKC probably listens to Kemba+a 1st for Horford, especially since Kemba probably opts out after a year if he's sent to basketball hell.

I can probably find a couple other contracts like that if I go search for 5 minutes.
Kemba makes $9 million more than Horford next year and $11.5 million more the folliwing year. And there isn't a snowball's chance that Kemba opts out of $37.5 million no matter what team he is on.
 

benhogan

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I don't see any way Kemba will be gone. I think the Celtics are better served by letting him play out his contract than by attaching legitimate assets to him to get rid of him. Who is taking Kemba off their hands, even for nothing in return?
the same place the Sixers went to, where everyone goes when they need to be fixed...Dr. Presti

I'm probably the least qualified to write up a reason for anyone to want KEMBA (since I never wanted him to begin with) but here goes:
1. great attitude, good guy
2. very approachable for young players
3. scorer
4. knee showed improvement during the course of the season
5. his most efficient games are when he was a #1 or 2 offensive option during the regular season
6. he led the league in charges taken, not afraid to sacrifice himself for the benefit of the team
7. some metrics can be mangled to show he was a decent defensive player this season
8. past All-Star
9. good great at FTs!

see @Cellar-Door & @scottyno if you want a more detailed Kemba case, they still see value there. Maybe some NBA GM does also?

Kemba makes $9 million more than Horford next year and $11.5 million more the folliwing year. And there isn't a snowball's chance that Kemba opts out of $37.5 million no matter what team he is on.
The Horford deal is the only one I see. They are dealing Al to take something worse + youth/picks

But I agree with you & can't get my head around Kemba ever dreaming of opting out of $37.5. The Drummonds/Griffins/Batums have the playbook there. Wrap yourself in shrinkwrap in the final season of your fat deal, get the buyout, go to a contender refreshed at midseason on the minimum. Kemba will never get that $$$ again and get to choose to go to a contender like that.

Boston is the bagholder.
 

mcpickl

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Kemba makes $9 million more than Horford next year and $11.5 million more the folliwing year. And there isn't a snowball's chance that Kemba opts out of $37.5 million no matter what team he is on.
Even worse, Horford only has 14.5M of his 26.5M guaranteed in the following year.

Horford has 41.5M left guaranteed, while Kemba has more than 73.5M left.
 

reggiecleveland

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Shooting is probably the skill most easily improved, but I wouldn’t say “anyone can learn to shoot.” We don’t know his ceiling, just have a pretty good idea of his floor.
I don't totally agree since it is so important. I compared it to hitting in baseball in the other thread. The difference between hitting .250 and .300 is 1/20 but also between AAA and Cooperstown. If he is >33% probably out of the league before long, he is 34-36 rotation guy, 37+ fighting to start, 40+ back up the money truck.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Gotta love this game for Romeo heading into the offseason. 38 min, 17 pts on 7-12 shooting, knocked down three 3’s, a couple blocks and steals on the other end. My only concern about this kid (besides possibly being made of glass) is his inconsistent motor. Maybe additional maturity helps here or maybe adding a veteran mentor like a Beverley-type but man he is so physically gifted out there yet still so raw. I’m a buyer.
 

lovegtm

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Gotta love this game for Romeo heading into the offseason. 38 min, 17 pts on 7-12 shooting, knocked down three 3’s, a couple blocks and steals on the other end. My only concern about this kid (besides possibly being made of glass) is his inconsistent motor. Maybe additional maturity helps here or maybe adding a veteran mentor like a Beverley-type but man he is so physically gifted out there yet still so raw. I’m a buyer.
I'm fairly confident that Romeo will turn "horrifically bad" into the new "Trevor Ariza".
 

Eddie Jurak

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Gotta love this game for Romeo heading into the offseason. 38 min, 17 pts on 7-12 shooting, knocked down three 3’s, a couple blocks and steals on the other end. My only concern about this kid (besides possibly being made of glass) is his inconsistent motor. Maybe additional maturity helps here or maybe adding a veteran mentor like a Beverley-type but man he is so physically gifted out there yet still so raw. I’m a buyer.
His last 2 weeks have been encouraging, with last night kind of a capstone as he heads into what will be a critical offseason for him.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Gotta love this game for Romeo heading into the offseason. 38 min, 17 pts on 7-12 shooting, knocked down three 3’s, a couple blocks and steals on the other end. My only concern about this kid (besides possibly being made of glass) is his inconsistent motor. Maybe additional maturity helps here or maybe adding a veteran mentor like a Beverley-type but man he is so physically gifted out there yet still so raw. I’m a buyer.
W/r/t to the bolded, as you point out RL is super physically gifted, so gifted in fact that he makes blocking Harden (or Bridges) at the rim look easy. People often mistake these kind of athletes for not having a motor. Compare RL to AN. Nesmith throws his body around like there's no tomorrow and everyone says that he has a high motor but he doesn't get nearly the results RL does, particularly on defense.

I think his motor is fine. I think he gets lost on rotations on defense (of course, the Cs missed a lot of rotations last night) and on offense but that will hopefully change with experience.
 

the moops

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Gotta love this game for Romeo heading into the offseason. 38 min, 17 pts on 7-12 shooting, knocked down three 3’s, a couple blocks and steals on the other end. My only concern about this kid (besides possibly being made of glass) is his inconsistent motor. Maybe additional maturity helps here or maybe adding a veteran mentor like a Beverley-type but man he is so physically gifted out there yet still so raw. I’m a buyer.
Don't we already have that same dude in Smart?
 

128

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Apparently I’m one of the few who are pleased with where Romeo is today after the Nets playoff series without yet having a normal offseason since leaving college after his freshman year.
I believe that was sarcasm on lovegtm's part. Most of us, I think, are pleased with Romeo's progress, given all the setbacks he's had.
 

TripleOT

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Timi looks to have found all 21 of Romeo’s regular season baskets, and all 13 from the playoffs, to put together this video. It’s an everything video, not a highlight video.

Some of the plays are eye popping, like bitch slapping a Harden driving shot attempt into the crowd, or defending 1-4 (if Romeo could play against JaMichael Green every game, he could win DPOY.

When I was hyper critical of Romey’s offense a few months ago, someone pointed out that both Avery Bradley and Terry Rozier had disastrous numbers their first two years.

Celtics brass are high on Langford. If he could stay healthy and could play offense only at the level of his performance against the Nets, 27 mpg, 9/2.5/1.3 on 41/35% shooting, he could be a solid defensive specialist.
 

Euclis20

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Timi looks to have found all 21 of Romeo’s regular season baskets, and all 13 from the playoffs, to put together this video. It’s an everything video, not a highlight video.

Some of the plays are eye popping, like bitch slapping a Harden driving shot attempt into the crowd, or defending 1-4 (if Romeo could play against JaMichael Green every game, he could win DPOY.

When I was hyper critical of Romey’s offense a few months ago, someone pointed out that both Avery Bradley and Terry Rozier had disastrous numbers their first two years.

Celtics brass are high on Langford. If he could stay healthy and could play offense only at the level of his performance against the Nets, 27 mpg, 9/2.5/1.3 on 41/35% shooting, he could be a solid defensive specialist.
There are few things I enjoy watching more in an NBA game than when a mediocre big like Green gets switched onto a guard like Romeo with ++ wingspan (or Smart with his strength and skills) and tries to take advantage of the "mismatch." It's the NBA embodiment of the "Call an Ambulance! But not for me!" meme.
 

lovegtm

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Apparently I’m one of the few who are pleased with where Romeo is today after the Nets playoff series without yet having a normal offseason since leaving college after his freshman year.
I was poking fun at radsoxfan. Think I may have been the first person here on the Romeo train.
 

radsoxfan

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Romeo has been atrocious on offense, there is no other way to slice it. I'm sorry to disappoint those the Romeo backers, it's been as ugly as it gets.

Year 3 (really year 2) will be a big year for him and I am hopeful he turns it around. He has the pedigree, legit physical skills, and flashed above average on D. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he makes a leap next season.

His offensive performance (even accounting for age/injury/inexperience) has still been below any reasonable expectations. It doesn't get much worse than what we have seen from Romeo so far.
 

luckiestman

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Romeo kind of passes the eye test for me as having potential. Need to see him play more but he looks to have plus athleticism and the proper demeanor.
 

lovegtm

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Romeo has been atrocious on offense, there is no other way to slice it. I'm sorry to disappoint those the Romeo backers, it's been as ugly as it gets.

Year 3 (really year 2) will be a big year for him and I am hopeful he turns it around. He has the pedigree, legit physical skills, and flashed above average on D. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he makes a leap next season.

His offensive performance (even accounting for age/injury/inexperience) has still been below any reasonable expectations. It doesn't get much worse than what we have seen from Romeo so far.
Yeah, I guess the difference in perspective here is that I'm wayyyy more interested in eye test stuff with young players than I am in metrics or counting stats (which are bad in Romeo's case).

Young players are almost all bad wrt contributing to winning, and the ones who aren't are usually either old or superstars. I don't need metrics to tell me Luka was going to be good after his first couple months. I am still pretty meh on PP because of age, eye test, and physical profile, regardless of his counting stats.

So the focus on metrics early on leads to this kind of weird anti-epistemlogical approach, where, for players who end up good but aren't studs out of the gate, the trajectory looks like:
- He's bad
- He's still bad (Romeo's offense)
- He looks ok out there but the metrics say he's not great. Do you reject the Sacred Numerals? (Romeo's defense year 1)
- Man he's pretty decent, who could have seen it coming??? For lo, the Numbers foretold it not. (Romeo's defense now)
- He's really good and everyone always knew he would be! (check what people thought of Jayson Tatum late year 2 and early year 3. Everyone pretends now that Jayson Tatum, Star was always seen as inevitable, and that's a total retcon.)

In fairness to you, I think that your probability bands for a player's career are a fine/good way to approach this, and I put Romeo's floor way higher than you likely would in that exercise.
 
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nighthob

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Ahem, some of us pointed out that Tatum was going to go sunshine supernova on the NBA even after year 2 when so many people around here were whining about Kobe. I even gave my reasons for why which turned out to be pretty accurate.
 

Eddie Jurak

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His offensive performance (even accounting for age/injury/inexperience) has still been below any reasonable expectations. It doesn't get much worse than what we have seen from Romeo so far.
Has it? From where I stand, even you say "accounting for age/injury/inexperience", you don't actually account for those things. Or another important one: when he has played, he's mostly been put in a role that doesn't suit him: low usage spot up shooter. That isn't what he was drafted to be or the reputation he had coming out of college.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2019/

Pluses:
  • Good physical profile with a wiry frame and long arms. He’s agile with or without the ball, and has a quick first step.
  • Innate scoring instincts show in the way he moves, creates space using crossovers and stepbacks, and handles contact at the rim.
  • Solid perimeter scorer off the dribble. He’s a confident shooter from anywhere on the floor who smoothly transitions from his dribble into his jumper.
  • Flashes pick-and-roll playmaking skills; though he’s raw, creating for others off the dribble should be a developmental priority at the NBA level.
  • Good rebounder for his position. He can turn defensive possessions into offense.
  • Defensive upside due to his strong body and athleticism; he could be useful switching screens if he starts to try consistently.
Minuses:
  • Needs to overhaul his shot form or he’ll remain an inefficient shooter. His feet are never set the same and he releases an inaccurate ball due to unusual wrist flexion.
  • Currently uncomfortable off the ball: He struggles at spot-up shooting and he’s not an aware cutter.
  • He’s a ball stopper. Though he can complete basic passes to rollers or to shooters for kickout 3s, he has a bad habit of pausing before making a dribble move or picking up his dribble before passing.
  • Decision-making needs to improve: He dribbles into traffic too often, and though he drew a lot of fouls at Indiana, he’s a below-the-rim player who may not draw as many at the next level.
  • Spacey defender who falls asleep off the ball and makes slow reads even when he’s paying attention, both serious concerns for his long-term defensive upside.
If his main offensive skill in college was spot up shooting, I'd be more concerned because he has had opportunity to do that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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In fairness to you, I think that your probability bands for a player's career are a fine/good way to approach this, and I put Romeo's floor way higher than you likely would in that exercise.
Yeah, it doesn't really matter whether RL has been just terrible or historically bad in his first two seasons. The way the Cs are structured right now, it's kind of imperative that either RL or AN pop. I mean there are a couple of other ways for the Cs to add talent over the next few years but that would require either getting lucky on a FA signing or trade or convincing someone to sign in BOS a couple of years out.

Here's something fun to think about: how good will the Cs be if both AN and RL pop next year? That would be something, while admittedly unlikely. :)