Roki Sasaki to be posted this winter
- Thread starter soxhop411
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Hey, man, a bidding war that doesn’t actually involve money is this ownership group’s sweet spot!
I know it's not intentional but I think the people here need to seriously reconsider posts that imply "other person of this ethnicity/race/nationality once played here so they should also feel comfortable playing here" That shit sounds off to me. LA is in a unique position to court Japanese players because of geography, recent success, and players who Sasaki knows that he happens to be friends with who happen to be from Japan. We have no evidence that playing on a team that has or once had players from a players' country of origin really matters at all.
I thought it was icky with Soto and it feels icky with Sasaki too.
Unfortunately for the MLB, until the rules change, I really don't think we're (East Coast and Central teams) gonna see major acquisitions of Japanese players who prefer to be close to home. Especially when the west coast has winning teams.
I thought it was icky with Soto and it feels icky with Sasaki too.
Unfortunately for the MLB, until the rules change, I really don't think we're (East Coast and Central teams) gonna see major acquisitions of Japanese players who prefer to be close to home. Especially when the west coast has winning teams.
With respect to Japanese players, my impression is that it's less ethnicity/race/nationality, and more that there is massive gulf culturally, and language barriers between Japan and the US. I think that's a legitimate/reasonable consideration rather than "icky shit".
I think I mostly disagree. Of your "ethnicity/race/nationality" trio, when it comes to Sasaki (or Yamamoto, or whoever) I don't think I've read anyone saying, for example, Steven Kwan loves Cleveland so Sasaki would probably be happy there too. Or keeping it Sox, that having Wong/Refsnyder/Yoshida on the roster shows that Boston is good for Asians. Which is to say, no one is making ethnicity or race posts when speculating about where a given Japanese player will end up.
And nationality, imho, does play some role in the decision process. I think for Japanese players, the prior experience of their countrymen in a given organization is something that matters to them. Sasaki's agent Joel Wolfe said in an article last week that Matsuzaka is a childhood hero of Sasaki's. That was news to me and I think was probably just Wolfe doing his job, but if true then asking here what Daisuke thought/thinks of Boston is relevant. Matsuzaka & Uehara both are still ubiquitous on the Japanese baseball scene so if any player wants color from them, they'll be able to get it.
Maybe all the stuff you're talking about happened more with Soto, I'm not sure -- but if it's a case where the player himself is on record saying, "David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez were my boyhood idols" then I think it's reasonable to factor that in while doing the rest of our wish casting. Otoh, if people are saying, "and our manager speaks Spanish!!" then sure maybe that starts to get into icky territory.
Can't really argue with this because of the bolded, but it's also impossible to know if the bolded is true most of the time while the negotiations are happening, hence the rest of the speculation. But you're right, if they prefer to be closer, the West Coast is always going to be closer. Unless you're assuming they all would prefer that which, you know, would be icky. And I guess it depends on what you consider a "major acquisition" but Senga, Suzuki, Imanaga, and Yoshida all signed multi-year 10+mm AAV contracts with such teams in the last few years.
The only time I've felt we as a board have veered into "icky" territory while discussing Japanese players is when culture comes up. We had some pretty tropey or even Orientalist takes in the Ohtani interpreter thread and in the various discussions around trading Yoshida. If the Sox treat Yoshida badly (trading him doesn't necessarily count), Roki Sasaki is going to take note of that. But it will be because the Sox were being dicks, not because Sasaki is a strict adherent to bushido code or some such.
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One thing I couldn't help laugh at (but never said anything) was the idea that Yamamoto (a pitcher who was teammates with Suzuki in Japan) would think it was a positive to have him playing LF behind him again (before he was moved to DH full-time), as if Yamamoto hadn't seen Suzuki play the outfield in person more than enough by that point. I agree with the cultural stuff though (my wife is from Tokyo and we live near NYC).
This is different considering his decision will be based on nothing but intangibles, no?
Money is a complete non factor here. This is about recruitment. Where does he want to live? What team can make him the best pitcher? What team provides the best culture?
It’s a very unique situation.
I put the chances for the Red Sox at near zero. Feels like Padres or Dodgers.
Well, I think geography is tangible. Much more so than vibes.
But I agree, I think it will almost certainly be Padres or Dodgers. You don't give up as much money as he did unless there is a place you know you want to be.
I don't think a little due dilligence outside of that changes things.
Good post on a hard subject.
This all makes sense to me, and tracks with what I've heard from a friend who runs a Japanese translation business in the US and has translated for a number of baseball players over the years.
Frankly, I assume I would be asking similar questions if I were exploring playing in the NPL in Japan. I would want to know how the organization had handled American players (especially those who don't speak Japanese) in the past, and talk to American players who had played for those franchises to get their opinion. And given that I'm from Boston, I would want to make sure I understood how hard it was to get from various cities in Japan back home. All seems pretty standard as part of a big job decision like this one.
One thing to keep in mind about most professional baseball players—and this seems especially true in Japan—is that they’re not exactly worldly. When I worked as an interpreter for a winter league team with three Japanese players, I was floored by how little they knew about, well, anything that wasn’t baseball.
In Japan, serious athletes start dedicating their lives to their sport as early as elementary school, leaving little room for much else, including their studies. The players I worked with hadn’t left Japan for anything that wasn’t baseball-related, didn’t speak a word of English, and it honestly wouldn’t have been shocking if they couldn’t have named their own prime minister. They definitely knew less about America than your average Japanese.
So, naturally, most players like this will gravitate toward the West Coast, where they’re closer to home and surrounded by larger Japanese communities. Their heroes? The Japanese stars who made it big in America. And you’d have to imagine that they would be interested in their advice.
Of course, cultural influences only go so far. Not every Japanese player fits this stereotype, and I’ve known guys in the same winter league who broke that mold. But Sasaki seems to fit the classic archetype I saw with the players I worked with. He’s often described as serious and intensely private, sticking mostly to a close circle of friends and family. And it’s pretty clear he lives and breaths baseball. Why wouldn’t he want to join the best team in Baseball, that is as close to Japan as any city in the league and also has good weather and a large Japanese community? Unless he really doesn’t want to be overshadowed by Ohtani, it would be pretty surprising if he doesn’t end up with the Dodgers.
In Japan, serious athletes start dedicating their lives to their sport as early as elementary school, leaving little room for much else, including their studies. The players I worked with hadn’t left Japan for anything that wasn’t baseball-related, didn’t speak a word of English, and it honestly wouldn’t have been shocking if they couldn’t have named their own prime minister. They definitely knew less about America than your average Japanese.
So, naturally, most players like this will gravitate toward the West Coast, where they’re closer to home and surrounded by larger Japanese communities. Their heroes? The Japanese stars who made it big in America. And you’d have to imagine that they would be interested in their advice.
Of course, cultural influences only go so far. Not every Japanese player fits this stereotype, and I’ve known guys in the same winter league who broke that mold. But Sasaki seems to fit the classic archetype I saw with the players I worked with. He’s often described as serious and intensely private, sticking mostly to a close circle of friends and family. And it’s pretty clear he lives and breaths baseball. Why wouldn’t he want to join the best team in Baseball, that is as close to Japan as any city in the league and also has good weather and a large Japanese community? Unless he really doesn’t want to be overshadowed by Ohtani, it would be pretty surprising if he doesn’t end up with the Dodgers.
Agree with this. Dodgers and Padres are easily the softest landing spot. Darvish is still signed for 4 more years. Wonder if Padres did that with this recruitment explicitly in mind.
I will be pretty surprised if he goes to a random small market team. Dodgers/Padres have to be heavy favorites. Yankees/Mets are probably on the periphery. Everyone else feels like incredible long shots.
With that said, nobody expected the Angels for Ohtani so you just never know. Just don’t go to the Yankees. That’s all I care about.
Having lived in a number of countries - especially smaller countries - players that are successful in overseas bigger markets (on the world stage) are often looked upon as national heroes.
It would be perfectly normal if Soto was a huge Big Papi fan and as an extension a Red Sox fan.
But it isn't automatic.
It would be perfectly normal if Soto was a huge Big Papi fan and as an extension a Red Sox fan.
But it isn't automatic.
Some recent posts showing H/A splits on the Seattle guys have scared me away a bit. Maybe Woo would be the clear upgrade in the rotation but I’m really too easily reading stats the show Crawford turning into a top rotation guy in Seattle and Woo looking like a no.3 or 4 in the Sox rotation (I’m expecting Bello -after his very good 2nd half-to improve to a “no.2 type”) and there’s no way that Seattle is parting with him for Casas straight up as it is now….
And also so many posts here convinced me that Crawford with a very small tweak and normalized luck should be a no.3 type easily.
That’s where Darvish started out. Maybe he’s said some good things. Still feel like it’s San Diego or LA here with a lean to SD if he truly cares about a smaller market. With Darvish, great weather, a pitchers park, and a less frenetic lifestyle, feels like a great spot for Roki.
It seems like an open rotation spot would be something that is important to Sasaki when it comes to choosing a team. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and maybe Mets seem to be pretty full. The Padres, with Musgrove out for the season, have a spot waiting for him. I'd say it is 90% chance he ends up there.
Every team would make a spot for him in their rotation, whether it be moving them to the bullpen, trading them, doing a 6-man rotation, etc. There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t want Sasaki.
Pretty much any team has to. He’s never pitched more than 129 innings in a season and his agents certainly won’t let any team push it before he can land that big contract extension.
Probably the best the Sox can do is pick around for prospects committed to the team that he signs with, but aren’t happy with reduced bonuses.
Yep. I'm not sure he has - or needs - more than a cursory understanding of any teams roster situation. Teams vying for his services arent doing so with the idea of making him fight for a spot on a rotation. We know it and he knows it. He just gets to pick where he wants to go and the rotation will shake out after.
Yep. I'm waiting for the, "Sox make hard push; get meeting with Sasaki" article. And I'm sure it'll be true - to the extent that the agent is doing the Red Sox a PR favor (and Sasaki's team simply doing their due dilligence). But if he has set meetings and met with teams already, those are obviously his top choices. In a situation with little/no ability to financially swing a players interest, anyone on the outside looking in is just crossing their fingers that all of the other teams epically fumble their opportunity.
Other people have pointed out the issues here but I want to go even farther and say it’s exactly the opposite, he really needs a team with a full rotation so he can be broken in slowly. Even veteran Japanese pitchers struggle on normal rest (I don’t think Yamamoto pitched on 4 days rest last year until the postseason) and Sasaki is only 23.
You totally misread my post. Where did I say that there were teams that wouldn't want him? I said that the Sasaki camp would probably factor in what the current rotations of teams look like in their decision on where to go. I do agree with others here that teams may need to go to a 6 man or have him skip starts or some other arrangement to make it work. I also realize that teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, who already have 6 capable starters, would make accommodations in order to land him. But he may be looking at the chance to be the undisputed alpha, face of a staff as important to him. There is a reason he is facing backlash for leaving Nippon early to go to MLB. He could've easily waited until he was 25 and signed a $300+million deal. There are other factors at play for him here.
He pitched 111 innings last year, he is not trying to be the alpha starter on any team at this point in his career and if he is, it will end disastrously.
Fair point. Maybe face of franchise for the next several years is the way I should've phrased it. I don't expect him to come over and be a workhorse right away. There are examples though of guys making big jumps innings wise. Crochet threw 146 in his 1st year as a SP. Cole Ragans went from 96 IP to 186 IP in his age 25 season. I don't think any team that is fortunate enough to sign him is going to do anything to burn him out or let him burn himself out. (remember the stories of Dice-K throwing 100 pitch bullpens?) I just think that he wants to be great and can not wait to get over here to prove it.
Bad news re Sasaki:
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3174860
Sasaki's agent: Client pondering next steps after interest from 20 teams
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3174860
Padres are an interesting omission from that list. Hard to know what he wants but my preference is Padres, Giants, if the Sox are indeed dead on arrival here.
I heard that it is very likely he is not ready yet for an ML starting role but he will likely grow into one of the top aces in MLB.
There was a time where when Dice-K was posted it was almost a fait accompli he was coming here. It’s almost as if being a big market team acting like a small one can hurt your image with international players and free agents alike and leave you on the outside looking in.
Wasn't there a report that Sasaki was not interested in going to an intense media market? That might explain Boston and Philly (who is decidely not acting like a "small market team") not getting interview opportunities right there.
Both New York teams and LA sort of makes that theory dead in the water, right? Chicago is intense too.
Probably wants more than the $1 million Boston can offer if I had to hazard a guess.
This is also the only outlet reporting he didn't meet with Boston or Philly. I don't know if it's credible.
On the one hand, the Mets and Yankees don't meet that criterion either. On the other hand, maybe you always meet with those two since they'll be willing to throw out some high bids that'll juice up the final number.
There’s no high bidding in this case though since everyone will be limited in what they can offer. I don’t have a great memory of the Ohtani decision but I seem to recall the Angels not really being on anyone’s radar. Possible we could see something similar here.
On the plus side (if there is one), now we can dump Yoshida without worrying about how it might affect Sasaki's perception of the team.
Anyone but the Yankees. They have a lot of commitments to guys in their 30's. Their organization could really use a lottery ticket of youth and skill like this falling into their lap while paying very little for it.
That was an entirely different process, Matsuzaka had no choice in the matter. Teams submitted blind bids and the highest bid (in this case BOS) either negotiated a contract with him or he had to go back to Japan for a year.
Just came out today he was in Toronto last week. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/roki-sasaki-rumors-blue-jays-meeting-toronto.html
When the opportunity arose for teams to make a pitch, there was a list of his alleged desires floating around. One was scrutiny by media. He apparently wasn’t on good terms with Japanese media. In my mind, that immediately took the Red Sox off of his list. San Diego, LAD or Toronto will suit him well.
I’d like Toronto to get him, just to see something interesting happen.
Dodgers are the least interesting team of all time. Just expect them to get everyone.
Dodgers are the least interesting team of all time. Just expect them to get everyone.
People already know, but I'll post it again anyway.
View: https://www.twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1878889278874497385
View: https://www.twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1878889278874497385