Yeah, you're right, he'd still be worth that money easily, no questions asked. Just asking in terms of future projection.
Roki Sasaki to be posted this winter
- Thread starter soxhop411
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Exactly. If he were coming over for a Yamamoto-level deal, you run through and worry over every physical detail with a fine toothed comb. The initial investment in him this winter is going to be about a quarter of what Pirates invested in Paul Skenes when they drafted him. The max bonus he could get (from the Dodgers who have the most IFA bonus money available) is roughly equivalent to the #40 pick's slot value in the last draft. It's an investment but in a range where the bust factor is very real. In other words, teams have blown more money on worse players that never made it to the bigs. Sasaki maybe showing signs of needing some ligaments repaired isn't going to slow anyone down.
He’s definitely going to need to be “babied” a bit in MLB. Guessing whatever team wins throws him out there every 6 days.
I think he'd need that regardless, he's just not used to an MLB starter workload and is still young. His high in innings pitched in a season is 129.1.
Yeah, that was my point. I’m not overly concerned with declining velocity because I think part of it may be intentional. He still has only given up 3 HRs in the last 2 seasons, which is nuts.
I think if the Sox are going to have a shot, there going to need sell him on their potential to develop young pitching and keep it healthy (if we can use last year as an example and he’s not too worried about the sample size)… maybe we can point out the Dodgers propensity to run through young arms while we’re in the room…
USA Today Roki Sasaki posting
Above is a good article on Sasaki and the whole posting process. Based on that read, I'd put the Dodgers 50/50 as the final landing spot and the Sox 30:1. He's been on the Dodgers' Radar for some time. Some earlier were saying there's no way to abuse the system but I think the Dodgers could have done that by "convincing" Sasaki's current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, to post him now rather that in two years when he would have earned them a much bigger payday. I'm not accusing them of that, but that's how it could have been manipulated.
Above is a good article on Sasaki and the whole posting process. Based on that read, I'd put the Dodgers 50/50 as the final landing spot and the Sox 30:1. He's been on the Dodgers' Radar for some time. Some earlier were saying there's no way to abuse the system but I think the Dodgers could have done that by "convincing" Sasaki's current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, to post him now rather that in two years when he would have earned them a much bigger payday. I'm not accusing them of that, but that's how it could have been manipulated.
And how did the Dodger “convince” Chiba Lotte to forgo the financial windfall of him receiving a full FA contract? It seems like Tokyo Sox’s supposition about a secret clause in his contract is the easier answer…
This is where I am. Knowing what we know now from Jim Allen and the Japanese media, I think he was fairly disgruntled this season, knew he'd be headed to MLB for 2025, and put it in cruise control for stretches this year. Maybe that would raise makeup concerns but I don't think so.
Also agree with BSF that he'll likely need his workload managed in his first year at least.
Yeah if anything is going to work, I think these have to be the angles. I've got no idea if he wants to be "the man" or part of a super team, but all else equal, this is the way.
I would love to get Saski, Sox should be all in. He is young and has upside - two huge factors to consider. My gut says he will probably go to the Dodgers. Not only will he be able to play with Ohtani and Yamamoto, but he'll have a higher chance of winning a world series.
Tough for me to get excited, or even hopeful about landing him. I rode that roller coaster last year with Yamamoto. I'm going to (try to) stay away from this thread...
There's less of a chance of Sasaki ending up with the Red Sox than Juan Soto. I guess it will be interesting to see whether it's the Dodgers or the field, but I don't even think this thread should be here rather than in the MLB forum.
Same here. I was naively optimistic for too long last year, though if I'd known earlier on that YY was actually staying at Ohtani's house, I might have seen the writing on the wall sooner.
I can definitely see the Dodgers' appeal to Japanese players, but at this point it feels like NPB is just a pipeline to LAD, at least for the best players.
At least in the run up to the Yamamoto sweepstakes, there was a possibility of being the highest bidder. Sure realistically other teams had deeper coffers but there was no real ceiling on what could be offered so there was that slim hope that the Sox would surprise us (and everyone else). With Sasaki, we know there's a hard limit on how much can be offered to him and we know that the Dodgers can offer the most. Even without having Yamamoto, Ohtani, and this year's World Series trophy as recruiting tools, the Dodgers are clearly in the driver's seat on this one.
Technically speaking Boston could sell off some prospects to teams like Pittsburgh or San Francisco to increase their 2024 money. (Or, alternatively, buy a prospect from the Giants if they're actually able to sell Sasaki on signing there.)
I think he goes to the Dodgers (or the Padres if he's really that close to Darvish), regardless of which team is the highest bidder. No team can offer him the kind of money required to make him live some place other than where he wants to. The big money from the team he chooses will come in time, until then, he'll be making his money from endorsements, and LA is probably the best place for that.
Thanks, somehow missed this. A quick google confirms they are friends but was that during the recruiting visit/closing party? Ohtani certainly greased the skids (edit - not saying that’s why he did it) by deferring half a billion or whatever as well.
To the second bolded: yes, yes it does.
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From MLB Trade Rumors:
"MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.
After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason."
This one is all about the future, as there are no financial constraints right now for a team to actually sign him. The Sox should be in a good spot to offer top dollar down the road. It's about the vision going forward and what else is important to Sasaki. Who knows, the Dodgers thing could be a done deal already. He is 23 and you wouldn't have to give up any prospects. Go all-in see if you can match Los Angeles.
"MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.
After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason."
This one is all about the future, as there are no financial constraints right now for a team to actually sign him. The Sox should be in a good spot to offer top dollar down the road. It's about the vision going forward and what else is important to Sasaki. Who knows, the Dodgers thing could be a done deal already. He is 23 and you wouldn't have to give up any prospects. Go all-in see if you can match Los Angeles.
I cannot remember where I read this, and I could be wrong, but my understanding was that he stayed with Ohtani throughout his time in the US, even before he (ostensibly) had decided where to go. I recall being surprised, because I had assumed he'd be staying in a hotel or similar, or perhaps with his agent. So yeah, greased the skids, and got to do a sales job every night over dinner... Again, I could be wrong, or have misunderstood what I'd read.
As for LAD's advantages, they already had the time zone, large Japanese expat community, and sunny SoCal climate in their favor, and have only added Ohtani, YY, and a World Series trophy to the mix. Heck, even their manager is half-Japanese, which I'd kind of forgotten about. What's not to love?
Sasaki will go to the Dodgers. I see almost no scenario (realistically) where Sasaki doesn't end up teaming with Ohtani.
We have no way of know what Sasaki wants.
It's possible he wants the transition to be as easy as possible and LA is certainly the destination for that.
But he has to know that if he goes there, he's just another guy - regardless of how successful he is.
If he goes to Boston and brings success, he'll be treated like a god.
Different people have different desires when it comes to the free agent market.
It's possible he wants the transition to be as easy as possible and LA is certainly the destination for that.
But he has to know that if he goes there, he's just another guy - regardless of how successful he is.
If he goes to Boston and brings success, he'll be treated like a god.
Different people have different desires when it comes to the free agent market.
To the bolded, is Ohtani a JAG? Or Mookie? Or Freeman? Or Yamamoto?
LA is the best place for Sasaki, TBH for those reasons. He's in his early 20s, he doesn't have to be THE GUY and if he pitches well when he becomes an unrestricted free agent where he can take what he's learned (and probably a WS ring or two) and then go to SD or Seattle or Anaheim and be THE GUY there. Plus in LA he's slotted as what, the number three?
Or he can go to SD and be mentored by his hero Darvish, gain experience, etc. and not be expected to be the ace of the staff.
Going to the Sox would be cool (I'd love him here obvioulsy) but if you're Sasaki why would you come to Boston when there's less pressure and a shorter flight home for about the same amount of money (there is a difference but not like what he's going to get). Not only that but the resurrection of the franchise is sorta on his back. That's a ton of pressure added to coming into a new country and dealing with the cutural divide and language barriers.
That's the point. Maybe he wants to be THE guy.
Maybe he wants the pressure. Some guys are built like that. We have no way of knowing.
Sure, odds are against it. But honestly, we just don't know.
Match LA how? They can't promise him future riches in order to get him to sign now as that violates the CBA and MLB rules. The best they can do is offer him all the international signing bonus money they have for this signing period, which is about a million and a half less than the Dodgers have to offer. The fact that he's coming two years early suggests money isn't his top priority but it also suggests he knows where he wants to go. Convincing him to change that vision is going to be an uphill battle for any of the 29 teams he isn't leaning toward in the first place.
Basically, no one here should be holding their breath hoping the Sox pull off a miracle. We'd be better off getting excited for Soto, which as long a shot as it would be, has a better chance of happening than Sasaki.
It’s kiiiinda shitty that 29 teams just (likely) cant do anything here. Feels like a loophole for the Dodgers to just load up.
They can go over to Japan and do the work of creating relationships. Players might like LA, all else being equal, but they're also people with varying interests and preferences. LA has weather (Japan is more like the mid-atlantic states), LA has media (not the same if you're the 3rd or 4th Nihonjin in the door), LA is big (not many of these guys are from big cities), LA has proximity (a slightly shorter but still very long flight). If a guy wants to play with his Dodger friends, OK, but that isn't likely to be the priority every time.
IOW it's not hopeless. Go do the work. See what happens.
Next are San Fran, Seattle and New York, in the same ballpark as each other (not LA), 50-100k. I can't even find a number (estimate) for the population in Boston. But wouldn't it come down to more qualitative things? They certainly aren't going to connect to all 50,000 Japanese folks in Seattle. If the Japanese population feels like critical mass or generally has enough of what the player wants in his otherwise extremely busy life, the sheer numbers won't matter much. Again, who knows. At least Boston can offer a nice compact city and elements of modern life, and some actual Japanese ballplayers to introduce them to it. I can't imagine Japanese people going to Texas or Florida and being told you can't walk anywhere and the public transportation is grudgingly offered. That must feel a lot more foreign and isolating than Boston would.
Not necessarily, it depends on when he is posted and when he decides to sign. There is really no incentive for him to sign in this IFA bonus pool window. The Dodgers, as you note, have the most money to offer with ~$2.5M remaining in their 2024 pool. But the 2025 IFA window opens on January 15. He could just wait a few more weeks to get posted and then the 2025 pool would apply. As it stands, the Sox would have about $1M more to offer than LAD.
Of course some of that pool is tied up in verbal agreements. But even if Sasaki is dead set on LAD, why wouldn't he wait to get posted and demand most of their 2025 pool? It's shitty, but the Dodgers aren't going to say "sorry we have to honor a handshake agreement with some 15 year olds out of the Dominican, we'll pass."
$7,555,500
CIN, DET, MIA, MIL, MIN, OAK, SEA, TB
$6,908,600
ARI, BAL, CLE, COL, KC, PIT
$6,261,600
ATL, BOS, CHC, CWS, LAA, NYM, NYY, PHI, SD, TEX, TOR, WSH
$5,646,200
HOU, STL
$5,146,200
LAD, SF
If anyone is so inclined, this topic is covered in depth on the new Effectively Wild podcast. They have FG’s Eric Longenhagen on and they cover the money as well as timing , and some of the wrinkles in the IFA market as well (such as prospect fallout and trading for more IFA cap space).
This, and thinking outside the box.
Remember when Theo spent Thanksgiving at the Schillings' residence? I am sure that people in the Red Sox front office have contacts through which they can try to find out what he, and his family, would like.
Sure, there is only so much bonus they can offer him so they should look for some other kind of incentive. Say, for example, the Red Sox purchase a nice house in Brookline, within walking distance of Fenway, and they offer him the dwelling free of charge and with domestic service (cleaning personnel Japanese chef, etc.) and free usage of the vehicle of his choice.
Depending on the type of house he prefers (condo, townhouse, house, etc.), we could be talking about a couple of million dollars, or maybe 20 million dollars. This is something which could go a long way!
Or perhaps he would prefer another type of perk. No idea!
What matters is that you have to find out something valuable for him, that other franchises haven't thought of, and offer it to him as part of the package.
I have seen him pitch, and he is really worth the effort, and even if you have to invest 25 million dollars in a house and a Lexus LC convertible sports car, that is a pittance compared to what he would get in an open market!
Pretty sure all of that is circumventing the IFA rules and would result in punishment from the league.
I was thinking the same exact thing while reading that post. That said, Yoshida is choosing to spend the offseason in Boston, so maybe he could take Roki house shopping and show him some of the japanese restaurants and other spots that he has found in his 2 years here. Also, i feel like i remember that Dice-K chose to make Boston his home after his playing days. It also couldn't hurt to show him some clips of Koji during the 2013 season when he would've a 9 or 10 yr old kid in Japan, especially Papi hoisting him over his shoulder after a save and of course him getting the last out of the World Series. Can't hurt, right?
In the AL, the Red Sox are very serious about making a pitch to the Sasaki team. The main selling point might be the history of Japanese pitchers having success and positive experiences playing in Boston: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. They have an impressive pitching development program and it certainly doesn’t hurt when the general manager, Craig Breslow, can speak directly to it (as opposed to just handing it off to “the experts”). Breslow also personally scouted Sasaki for one of his starts in Japan in September.
https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-free-agent-favorites?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-free-agent-favorites?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
If he signs here he'll need TJ immediately. If he signs elsewhere he'll be injury free his whole MLB career.
(Trying to anti-jinx the hell out of everything with this post.)
(Trying to anti-jinx the hell out of everything with this post.)
I thought I read somewhere where he was wanting to be "the man" on a pitching staff in the future. I wonder if Craig and Andrew can sell him on the notion they are building a pitcher mecca of sorts. Also if you are the man in Boston, you are the man for life.
I’m not putting stock in any of these recent stories, because we’ve also seen stories that he wants someplace where the spotlight won’t fall on him. About the only thing I buy is the story that’s circulated for some time about Yu Darvish being line of his idols.
Did Matsuzaka have a positive experience in Boston? Honest question- I don’t recall ever seeing him back in Boston since he’s left for any events; but know relatively little about the man. Just curious as to how positive the Boston experience has been for the Sox Japanese players- whether it’s Dice-K, Okajima, Nomo, Tazawa, Uehara, Yoshida, Sawamura, Saito, Ohka, or Uwasawa…Imagine it’s somewhat mixed.
Unfortunately that guy also played for the Dodgers, and has been a special advisor to the Padres for several years now. I don't think any contact Roki has with him would confer any advantage to the Sox at this point.
He's been back a bunch because his wife & kids stayed there after his career took him elsewhere in MLB and even back to Japan. I think the kids are out of school now so I'm not sure what the current situation is. But anyway he has spoken favorably in public about his time in Boston, though who knows what he would have to say in private. Matsuzaka now has a regular gig as a color commentator & analyst for NPB games, and they also send him to the US a lot to cover MLB playoffs and the WBC, et cetera. He's still very much on the scene so I hope he's saying good things, even if it's just, "my wife loved it!"
The guy who remains the most outspoken about how much he loves Boston is Uehara.
As for the rest, I'm sure you're right that it's mixed.
I'm not sure if he still does, but he was still living in Brookline in the baseball offseason at least until a couple years ago.
Still my favorite closer of all time - no offense Papelbon. Just an absolute delight of a player and person...and he came totally out of nowhere!