Risers and Fallers April 2014

Plympton91

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Instead of waiting until the end of the month like previously, we could try to have this more of a running discussion through the month. I'm continuing to borderline spam my rising enthusiasm for Madison Younginer. Since last July 21, he's put up the following line:

27-2/3 IP, 18 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 31 SO

And as noted in the adopt a prospect thread, he's reportedly touching 98 and 99 mph on his fastball. Could be Daniel Bard 2.0.
 

Plympton91

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People may not have noticed another small bright spot in the nearly prospect free roster that is Salem this year. Reid Gragnani is a second baseman drafted out of a small college last year who is off to a BABip fueled start hitting in the upper 300s. He has little power, but seems to have good plate discipline, and the Sox started him in high-A. So perhaps he can be a David Eckstein type who plays his way into relevance as a piece of a minor trade someday by continuing to hit as he moves up the ladder.
 

SaveBooFerriss

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Plympton91 said:
People may not have noticed another small bright spot in the nearly prospect free roster that is Salem this year. Reid Gragnani is a second baseman drafted out of a small college last year who is off to a BABip fueled start hitting in the upper 300s. He has little power, but seems to have good plate discipline, and the Sox started him in high-A. So perhaps he can be a David Eckstein type who plays his way into relevance as a piece of a minor trade someday by continuing to hit as he moves up the ladder.
 
Isn't Gragnani from UVA?  Hardly a small college.  I think he was a senior sign and his stats are meaningless until he moves up.   
 

Plympton91

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SaveBooFerriss said:
 
Isn't Gragnani from UVA?  Hardly a small college.  I think he was a senior sign and his stats are meaningless until he moves up.   
 
Oops, messed him up with Asuage in Greenville.  That makes his ability to handle high-A less surprising, as it's where I think all major college draftees should start, especially senior signs.  Still, given the wasteland that is Salem, at least he's somebody who is showing some potential to rising through there, rather than the rest of them who are mostly plateauing or even falling back.
 

Plympton91

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O.k.; it's a little late for the April wrap up, but here are my lists of prospects currently outside the top 20, (Mookie Betts is on a rocketship ride to the top of the Red Sox and BP all of baseball prospect lists, but I like to follow the ones who may not be getting attention).
 
Henry Ramos has had a great first month of AA ball, having just turned 22 on April 14th.  With 4 hits today he brought his average up over .300.  Still struggling with plate discipline, only 5 walks, and the strikeout rate has ticked up a bit in the month or so of the season so far.  However, it is a good sign that he is not overmatched.  Someone to keep watching, especially given the one place where you could argue this team has a lack of talent in the upper minors is in CF/RF.  It would be nice to see this promising start continue through the early summer.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=RF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592656
3
As of today, Mookie Betts is not the only 2Bman in the system hitting .400 on the season.  Reid Gragnani, who I mentioned above, is now at the magic threshold as well.   A 12/8 K/BB ratio in 87 plate appearances, and 4 triples have his ISO at 147.  As a graduate of UVA, he could be a late round sleeper on the order of David Eckstein or Freddy Sanchez.  When Betts goes to AAA, Gragnani seems the logical promotion to AA.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=643334
 
Rounding out the embarrassment of riches at 2B in the organization is 18-year-old (until September) Wendell Rijo in his first taste of full season ball at Greenville.   While he has failed to put up the obligatory .400 batting average over the first month, he has made up for it with a .306 average to date, and 18 walks contributing to an OBP of .443 while 6 2Bs and 2 HRs pushed his SLG up to .462 for a very respectable ISO of 162.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=620442
 
Honorable mention: Sean Coyle, Travis Shaw, Brian Johnson, Carlos Asuaje
 
On the faller side, I'm digging in the dregs of the prospect rankings.
 
Kyle Stoup, who I think only I and Eric Van really ever considered a prospect, seems to be nearing the end.  Relegated to middle relief at A-ball, he is not performing well coming back from his latest injury. 
 
Dailer Hinojosa.  Why was this person in major league camp as an invitee?
 
Mario Alcantara.  I think there was some buzz about this guy when he first signed.  But a 19 walks in 20 innings to only 11 K's is not promising no matter how young or raw.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
For the risers, I might add the following (#s in parens are SP rank now and April 3):
 
1. Corey Littrell (22/28). After a promising couple of months in Lowell last year, they skipped him over low-A and put in the Salem rotation. He has done just fine there so far, racking up a 2.60 ERA and 29/10 K/BB in 27.2 innings. From everything I've read it sounds like his ceiling is a back-end starter/long reliever type, but he's certainly making nice progress toward getting there.
 
2. Miguel Celestino (32/44). He's repeating double-A at 24, so he ought to be mowing people down--but he does seem to be doing that: 11.1 innings, 14 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. Now in his second year as a reliever, he's a flamethrower (touches 100) who has struggled with command. It'll be interesting to see if he has actually made a step forward on that front--if so, might he be a sleeper candidate to help in the bullpen late this year or next?
 

Quintanariffic

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Ramos and Shaw will be intriguing to watch this year, as the Sox need to make a decision about their 40-man roster status over the winter.
 
I know the Sox were high on Shaw at one point and Ramos apparently oozes athleticism.  Given the glut of prospects the Sox have, don't be surprised to see trades involving them at the deadline.
 
Edit:  As my riser, I'll nominate Brian Johnson.  He's been maligned among most prospect watchers since he was drafted.  Most thought he'd sign underslot, but he was a slight overslot signing in the 1st round of 2012 and then proceeded to do not much bet get in the face with a liner for the next year.   Despite a package of tools that doesn't wow most observers, the Sox have apparently been high on him internally (especially if you read between the lines of the SoxProspects.com utterances about him).  He really began to turn things on last year halfway through at Greenville and has now finally made it to an age-appropriate level in Portland.  If he maintains his success over the next few months, he's right in that conversation with the logjam of AAA guys and Owens for top pitching prospect billing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Rijo could really shoot up the rankings.

I'll be controversial and say Swihart and Cecchini have fallen. Swihart hasn't walked and Cecchini sports an Iglesias like ISO of .73 and is out obping his slugging.
 

The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Deven Marrero has had a nice start at the plate--.275/.363/.413. Could be a very valuable commodity if he can keep this kind of production up.
 
And I can't see how Blake Swihart and Garin Cecchini putting up 126 and 119 wRC+'s in their first month at new levels could possibly make them "fallers," are you serious? 
 

Drek717

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
And I can't see how Blake Swihart and Garin Cecchini putting up 126 and 119 wRC+'s in their first month at new levels could possibly make them "fallers," are you serious? 
 
I wouldn't call Swihart a faller either because while his OBP isn't where you'd like to see it his SLG and defense are both impressing this season so far.  He's always been a pretty solid plate discipline guy so to me it's way too early to assume that isn't something that will re-emerge given a little time.
 
Cecchini's lack of power is a bit troubling though.  His ceiling comes down pretty quickly as a bigger bodied guy who can only play the corners if he doesn't have any power.  I still think we're likely looking at a Cecchini/Brentz LF platoon in the near future (maybe as soon as 2015 when both Sizemore's and Gomes' contracts expire this off-season), but I'd like it better if the heavy side of that platoon was a .300/.380/.450 hitter instead of a .300/.380/.375 hitter.  We'll see though, he still has some time for power to emerge, and for a lot of guys it doesn't really do so until they're facing ML pitching.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
Deven Marrero has had a nice start at the plate--.275/.363/.413. Could be a very valuable commodity if he can keep this kind of production up.
 
And I can't see how Blake Swihart and Garin Cecchini putting up 126 and 119 wRC+'s in their first month at new levels could possibly make them "fallers," are you serious? 
Not really, but it is concerning and not much else is going wrong. Garin's ISO has dropped as he has gone up in levels.

It's a month in, have to reach a little. Swihart started out on fire and hasn't done a lot since. Just stuff to keep an eye on.

Plus Cecchini has been passed by Mookie and maybe Blake, so by definition... he's a faller.

edit: typos
 

The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Drek717 said:
 
I wouldn't call Swihart a faller either because while his OBP isn't where you'd like to see it his SLG and defense are both impressing this season so far.  He's always been a pretty solid plate discipline guy so to me it's way too early to assume that isn't something that will re-emerge given a little time.
 
Cecchini's lack of power is a bit troubling though.  His ceiling comes down pretty quickly as a bigger bodied guy who can only play the corners if he doesn't have any power.  I still think we're likely looking at a Cecchini/Brentz LF platoon in the near future (maybe as soon as 2015 when both Sizemore's and Gomes' contracts expire this off-season), but I'd like it better if the heavy side of that platoon was a .300/.380/.450 hitter instead of a .300/.380/.375 hitter.  We'll see though, he still has some time for power to emerge, and for a lot of guys it doesn't really do so until they're facing ML pitching.
I could see being a little concerned about the lack of power numbers (though we're still in SSS territory--ISO takes quite a while to stabilize relative to plate discipline stats) but calling him a "faller" at this point after he's had such a productive beginning to the season at a new level is quite extreme. And yeah of course more power is better than less power, all things being equal, but on-base skills aren't inherently less valuable, no matter what position you play--offensive production is offensive production.
 

IdiotKicker

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
I could see being a little concerned about the lack of power numbers (though we're still in SSS territory--ISO takes quite a while to stabilize relative to plate discipline stats) but calling him a "faller" at this point after he's had such a productive beginning to the season at a new level is quite extreme. And yeah of course more power is better than less power, all things being equal, but on-base skills aren't inherently less valuable, no matter what position you play--offensive production is offensive production.
 
I'm not necessary down on Cecchini as I think there's a very good chance he turns into a solid major leaguer, but his minor league numbers do have a very similar look to what Sean Burroughs did in the minors, even though Burroughs was about two years ahead of Cecchini age-wise:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=burrou001sea
 
Not saying he's going to end up like that, but I think there's just as good of a chance that he ends up being a .700-.725 OPS player as an .825-.850 OPS player.
 

Plympton91

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Chuck Z said:
 
I'm not necessary down on Cecchini as I think there's a very good chance he turns into a solid major leaguer, but his minor league numbers do have a very similar look to what Sean Burroughs did in the minors, even though Burroughs was about two years ahead of Cecchini age-wise:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=burrou001sea
 
Not saying he's going to end up like that, but I think there's just as good of a chance that he ends up being a .700-.725 OPS player as an .825-.850 OPS player.
 
Yikes, that's definitely a cautionary comparison.  The only possible difference I see is that Burroughs' walk rate declined pretty dramatically in his first full season of AAA, even as the PCL hitters environment boosted his average, whereas Cecchini's has held up so far.  Of course, he was 20 years old, which covers a lot of sins. 
 

Drek717

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
I could see being a little concerned about the lack of power numbers (though we're still in SSS territory--ISO takes quite a while to stabilize relative to plate discipline stats) but calling him a "faller" at this point after he's had such a productive beginning to the season at a new level is quite extreme. And yeah of course more power is better than less power, all things being equal, but on-base skills aren't inherently less valuable, no matter what position you play--offensive production is offensive production.
Sure, and if we were talking about a .450 OBP with a .375 SLG versus a .375 OBP with a .450 SLG I wouldn't really care much which one of those two we get (I know that modeling shows OBP to be more valuable for run production).  But Cecchini had/has the potential to be a silver slugger from a corner OF/IF position.  His contact and plate discipline skills border on elite at a young age.  Up until this point he's gotten the benefit of the doubt regarding his lack of power production and is consistently viewed as an A- to A level prospect.  If the power isn't going to develop he's a lot more like a B+ prospect.
 
That said, I was just doing a quick search for a guy with ~.300 BA, ~.400 OBP and a SLG to match and such a player is damn hard to find.  Tony Gwynn was about the best comp and it'd be hard to say that if Garin Cecchini has a ceiling of Tony Gwynn that he's a B+ tier guy.
 

LondonSox

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It's hard to be a 700 OPS guy when you have a ~400 OBP.
And frankly not all 700 OPS are created equal.
 
If he's really a 400 OBP type, then even 350 Slugging would make him a very solid guy. It's just a question if you can actually maintain a 400 OBP with that little power (the theory being you just will throw strikes if the guy is not a threat for power or stealing).
 
I was thinking about Gardner but looking back he was always lower than that OBP and even he was higher slugging than that.
 
Basically, I think he's either a bust or if the high on base is real he's going to show some even just mild pop and the bat will play.
 

Drek717

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LondonSox said:
Basically, I think he's either a bust or if the high on base is real he's going to show some even just mild pop and the bat will play.
I'd say that's a pretty accurate assumption.  In a quick foray through current and past ML regulars with OBPs in the >.375 range it's pretty rare to find someone completely devoid of power.  That might be because being able to make consistent contact with ML level pitching inherently results in enough doubles and the like to push the SLG up, or it might be because guys with absolutely zero power quickly get exposed and wash out.  It might be a combination of the two to varying degrees.  But in the end all that matters for Cecchini is that he keeps putting bat on ball.  If he can do that the power will probably show up to enough of an extent to make him valuable.
 

Plympton91

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Drek717 said:
I'd say that's a pretty accurate assumption.  In a quick foray through current and past ML regulars with OBPs in the >.375 range it's pretty rare to find someone completely devoid of power.  That might be because being able to make consistent contact with ML level pitching inherently results in enough doubles and the like to push the SLG up, or it might be because guys with absolutely zero power quickly get exposed and wash out.  It might be a combination of the two to varying degrees.  But in the end all that matters for Cecchini is that he keeps putting bat on ball.  If he can do that the power will probably show up to enough of an extent to make him valuable.
 
There's already a whole thread with this discussion in it, isn't there?
 
In that thread, people found Dave Magadan as a stellar comparison, even down to the years/levels he played in the minor leagues.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/magadda01.shtml
 
Looking through the B-Ref list of comparables for Magadan, Steve Braun looks like the corner outfielder version.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunst01.shtml
 
And the recently beloved Bill Mueller isn't a bad comparison either.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Could you rename this thread?

Ramos is tearing the cover off the ball in May.
.460/.500/.720 in 54 PA. 4bb/5k and 8xbh.

Vazquez .222/.300/.222 4bb/7k in 40 PA.

He's showing a huge platoon split... the good news is he's hitting righties. .783 ops vs R, .493 vs L for the year. 75 and 43 PA.

All SSS, but for the year he is now at .269/.328/.352.
 

Plympton91

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Just start a new one for May. I'm happy to share origination rights.

Agree that Ramos is getting very exciting at this point.