Rick Porcello is the Ace We Deserve
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
- Start date
Well, he had 14 wins as a 20 year old, which gave him a good start on that, and was durable, but then scuffled around for much of the next four seasons.
He's had an interesting career path. He could have been the next Verlander (up at 22, dominant at 23)...or the next Bonderman (up at 20, done as an effective pitcher at 25, out of the league for good by 30 after being out of the league from 27-28).
Porcello's consistency has been remarkable. I like looking at sorted game logs (and game scores), but Porcello's don't look as impressive as Price's due to Price's greater number of strikeouts. Price can clearly be more dominant, but has laid true eggs in 3 of his starts and has been poor in several more (and they weren't clustered suggesting an injury or random rough patch). If you sort by # of pitches, Porcello seems to have no true pattern, while Price, in about 1/3 of his starts, will ride 100-115 pitches an inning further than Porcello would (which is slightly counter-intuitive given the greater number of strikeouts and Porcello inducing GBs.) If Porcello consistently got another couple of outs from his 100+ pitch efforts, I think he'd get my nod over Price. I'd do a short series - Wright, Porcello, Price.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=porceri01&t=p&year=2016
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=priceda02&t=p&year=2016
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Also, I tossed this out there in the Farrell thread, but has any pitcher improved under Farrell's coaching team? Clay in 13, Doubront in 13, Kelly the second half of '15, and Porcello the second half of '15 onwards. Although Clay and Porcello might count as regressions to an established curve. Then there are the number of previously serviceable pitchers who have lost it under Farrell's coaching staff.
Is there a negative acquisition bounce? I don't have the chops to run the numbers (nor would I attribute all bounces of whatever sort on Farrell). But I think it's an interesting topic.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=porceri01&t=p&year=2016
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=priceda02&t=p&year=2016
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Also, I tossed this out there in the Farrell thread, but has any pitcher improved under Farrell's coaching team? Clay in 13, Doubront in 13, Kelly the second half of '15, and Porcello the second half of '15 onwards. Although Clay and Porcello might count as regressions to an established curve. Then there are the number of previously serviceable pitchers who have lost it under Farrell's coaching staff.
Is there a negative acquisition bounce? I don't have the chops to run the numbers (nor would I attribute all bounces of whatever sort on Farrell). But I think it's an interesting topic.
Taz? Koji? Miller? Barnes? I'm not sure this line of inquiry can prove something about Farrell. There are dozens of factors facing every pitcher at this level that determine whether he succeeds or fails. If there's a case to be made against Farrell, I doubt we have access to the key information.
Some Porcello perspective:
* Tied for league lead in wins
* He and Price both in top 8 for innings
* Tied for 14th with Cueto for WHIP
* Only 39th in GO/AO
* bWAR has him outside the league top ten at 3.5 wins (Sanchez 10th at 3.9); STEAMER and ZiPS are even less bullish.
So ace is maybe a bit strong if you imagine that guy to be a dominant force, but Porcello's consistently solid results and innings-eating behavior is a huge plus for this team.
* Tied for league lead in wins
* He and Price both in top 8 for innings
* Tied for 14th with Cueto for WHIP
* Only 39th in GO/AO
* bWAR has him outside the league top ten at 3.5 wins (Sanchez 10th at 3.9); STEAMER and ZiPS are even less bullish.
So ace is maybe a bit strong if you imagine that guy to be a dominant force, but Porcello's consistently solid results and innings-eating behavior is a huge plus for this team.
SOSH - where we run away from even trying to figure out what the facts around Farrell are. I think any discussion of Porcello has to include his disastrous 2015 campaign and what the reasons for it were.
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OK, but there's a Farrell thread elsewhere, and as I said, just looking at the pitchers -- some of whom got better, others worse -- proves nothing.
With the win Porcello moves into #1 on ESPN's Cy predictor
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
i think you can make a strong case for any of about 5 guys, but pretty impressive that he is at that position with only a month to go
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
i think you can make a strong case for any of about 5 guys, but pretty impressive that he is at that position with only a month to go
And I am hopeful that we learn not to rush to judgement when we evaluate trades/contracts until we have bigger sample sizes and more time.
List of active pitchers with 100 wins before their 28th birthday:
Clayton Kershaw
C.C. Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Frederick Alfred Porcello III
There's only 1 18 game winner in MLB right now and his name is Rick Porcello. He should get 6 more starts unless they chose to skip him once for rest.
Just some comps:
Last Sox 20 game winner: Beckett 2007
Last Sox 21 game winner: Shilling 2004 (and Lowe 2002)
Last Sox 22 game winner: Tiant 1974 (and Lonborf 1967)
Last Sox 23 game winner: Pedro 1999
Last Sox 24 game winner: Clemens 1986
Just some comps:
Last Sox 20 game winner: Beckett 2007
Last Sox 21 game winner: Shilling 2004 (and Lowe 2002)
Last Sox 22 game winner: Tiant 1974 (and Lonborf 1967)
Last Sox 23 game winner: Pedro 1999
Last Sox 24 game winner: Clemens 1986
The VB adds 12 points to pitchers on division leading teams. This will be a runaway when the Sox takeover 1st place.
Two options to shorten it to "Fred" and he chose "Rick." An underrated quality in a starting pitcher.
It's always a little odd to me to see a CY winner (or likely candidate) with an ERA of more than 3, but there's no true standout in the AL. If everyone keeps on as they are, it's going to be hard to deny Hamels.
That said we need some sort of Lackey/Porcello award for pitchers who have a disastrous year(s), but come back to anchor the rotation. (I know Lackey was injured, but there's a similar "sweeping to the rescue" vibe.)
Porcello's 2016 Game Log is an absolute thing of beauty.
27 Starts
ER distribution:
0: 3 (11.1%)
1: 5 (18.6%)
2: 4 (14.8%)
3: 9 (33.3%)
4: 5 (18.6%)
5: 1 (3.7%) - amazing...just one game all year giving up more than 4 er
IP distribution
< 6.0: 3 (11.1%) - both were in the 5+ ip category, so he's had no abject disasters
6.0-6.2: 12 (44.4%)
7.0-7.2: 9 (33.3%)
8.0+: 3 (11.1%)
His average per-game pitching line for the season is:
6.2 ip, 5.9 h, 2.4 er, 1 bb, 5.6 k
Just solid, solid, solid, every time out.
27 Starts
ER distribution:
0: 3 (11.1%)
1: 5 (18.6%)
2: 4 (14.8%)
3: 9 (33.3%)
4: 5 (18.6%)
5: 1 (3.7%) - amazing...just one game all year giving up more than 4 er
IP distribution
< 6.0: 3 (11.1%) - both were in the 5+ ip category, so he's had no abject disasters
6.0-6.2: 12 (44.4%)
7.0-7.2: 9 (33.3%)
8.0+: 3 (11.1%)
His average per-game pitching line for the season is:
6.2 ip, 5.9 h, 2.4 er, 1 bb, 5.6 k
Just solid, solid, solid, every time out.
I think it would be a great project to look at how the 93 starts of Pedro's 98-2000 seasons ended up with a 60-17 record. Great numbers, but I have a feeling JW did him no favors with those lineups.
Wait, so his legal name is Frederick Porcello, but he now goes by Rick Fred Porcello?
Pedro generally got good run support in those years, but some of his games do tell the story of bad lineups:
4/15/99: Pedro goes 7 IP, 3 R, 1 BB, 10K. Sox lose 4-0.
4/20/99: Pedro goes 7.2 IP, 0 R, 3 BB, 10 K, Sox win 1-0
7/7/99: Pedro goes 8 IP, 3 R, 2 BB, 14 K, Sox lose 3-2
8/19/99: Pedro goes 7 IP, 3 R, 0BB, 11 K, Sox lose 6-2
Those are 3 of his 4 losses in 1999, and all three were excellent pitching performances that should have resulted in wins had the offense been any good.
In 99 he only had a couple of poor starts (well, poor for Pedro):
6/9/99 @ MON: 6 IP, 4 R, 2 BB, 10 K. Sox lose 13-1
7/18/99: 3.2 IP, 9 R, 0 BB, 3 K. Sox actually won this one 11-9. This was his only objectively bad start of the year, and he went on the DL afterwards and didn't pitch until August.
In 99 Pedro made 30 starts and got decisions in 27 of them, which is pretty damn remarkable.
The Beckett?
I see more similarities between '15-'16 Porcello and '06-'07 Beckett than anything else. Beckett came in with more hype primarily for his 2003 post-season pedigree and what was given up to get him, but they both experienced disappointing first seasons in Boston, were overshadowed in the following off-season by higher profile additions to the staff (Matsuzaka/Price), and were quietly able to come into their second seasons and be the most consistently good performers on the staff.
I'm more amused by that Porcello's initials can be reduced to 'FAP 3'.
If you don't have any idea what FAP is, uh... google it.
If you don't have any idea what FAP is, uh... google it.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 12h12 hours ago
Rick Porcello in 35 starts since coming off the DL last Aug. 26: 22-7, 3.23 ERA. An average of 6.2 IP per start.
Rick Porcello in 35 starts since coming off the DL last Aug. 26: 22-7, 3.23 ERA. An average of 6.2 IP per start.
When they made the trade, I semi-seriously joked that Porcello could be a innings eating soft-contact inducing #1 like Halladay was with Toronto. (best case scenario) He'd had a really good stretch of pitching with Detroit until he hit a wall in late 2014 and had seemed to be on the verge of being a top of the rotation type pitcher.
He hasn't been as ground-ball heavy as I would have assumed, but he's pretty much put up Doc numbers since he made the adjustment last August.
To add some substance, in the AL, Porcello is now third in IP (179.2), 8th in ERA+ (140), 9th in FIP (3.55), 3rd in WHIP (1.041), 2nd in BB/9 (1.4), and 1st in SO/W (5.43).
I initially thought that 99 was Tom Gordon's 46 Save year. But that was 98 - TG appeared in 73 games, all but 9 of which were Sox wins. And of those nine losses he only allowed runs in 5 of them. He had one blown save (Pedro, of course). That's a pretty charmed "do no harm" season.
2000 was the year Pedro was unlucky. He made 29 starts, 18 wins. Here is the log of his 11 other starts (6 losses, 5 NDs):
5/6 vs. Tampa: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K (L, 1-0) ... um unreal
5/23 vs. Toronto: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K (L, 3-2)
6/14 @ NYY: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (ND, Sox lose 2-1)
6/20 vs. NYY: 8 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (L, 3-0)
6/25 @ Toronto: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (ND, Sox lose 6-5) ... this was his first "lousy" start of the year
7/13 vs. Mets: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (ND, Sox win 4-3)
8/8 @ LAA: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (L, 2-1)
8/14 vs. Tampa: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (ND, Sox win 7-3) ... only threw 63 pitches here, not sure why he came out
8/24 @ KC: 8 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (ND, Sox win 9-7) ... Pedro gave up a 5 spot in the first and 1 in the 2nd then shut the door
9/9 vs. NYY: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (L, 5-3)
9/20 vs. Cle: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (L, 2-1)
So of his 11 Ls / NDs:
- He gave up 1 run in 3
- Gave up 2 R in 2
- Gave up 3 R in 4
In those 11 games, his line was:
79 2/3 IP, 61 H, 30 R, 29 ER, 12 BB, 99 K
or an average game of 7 1/3 IP, 5.5 H, 2.6 ER, 1.1 BB, 9.0 K... or better than Porcello has been all year
Goddamn Pedro was good
5/6 vs. Tampa: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K (L, 1-0) ... um unreal
5/23 vs. Toronto: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K (L, 3-2)
6/14 @ NYY: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (ND, Sox lose 2-1)
6/20 vs. NYY: 8 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (L, 3-0)
6/25 @ Toronto: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (ND, Sox lose 6-5) ... this was his first "lousy" start of the year
7/13 vs. Mets: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (ND, Sox win 4-3)
8/8 @ LAA: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (L, 2-1)
8/14 vs. Tampa: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (ND, Sox win 7-3) ... only threw 63 pitches here, not sure why he came out
8/24 @ KC: 8 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (ND, Sox win 9-7) ... Pedro gave up a 5 spot in the first and 1 in the 2nd then shut the door
9/9 vs. NYY: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (L, 5-3)
9/20 vs. Cle: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (L, 2-1)
So of his 11 Ls / NDs:
- He gave up 1 run in 3
- Gave up 2 R in 2
- Gave up 3 R in 4
In those 11 games, his line was:
79 2/3 IP, 61 H, 30 R, 29 ER, 12 BB, 99 K
or an average game of 7 1/3 IP, 5.5 H, 2.6 ER, 1.1 BB, 9.0 K... or better than Porcello has been all year
Goddamn Pedro was good
Not to get too far off topic, but I always had a bad feeling about the 2000 season after that 1-0 game Pedro lost to Steve f**king Trachsel in May of that season.
Just how bad was that Red Sox lineup? They ranked 12th in runs scored (and 12th in OPS) out of 14 teams in the AL despite having their shortstop with an OPS+ of 156 and their center fielder with an OPS+ of 136. Absolutely brutal.
Just how bad was that Red Sox lineup? They ranked 12th in runs scored (and 12th in OPS) out of 14 teams in the AL despite having their shortstop with an OPS+ of 156 and their center fielder with an OPS+ of 136. Absolutely brutal.
He was a freat dentist, from what I understand.Lonborf really carried them that year.
I heard his services only cost a shilling (if we're going to point out all the typos in that post).
Fine. Next time I have data and just an iPad to type it on I'll just forget it.
love the freat dentist line
Martinez came out because of a sore shoulder. (And Rico Brogna won the game with a walk-off grand slam.)
That team had more bottom-barrel mid-season acquisitions than I would care to see in a decade's time.
Brogna, Gilkey, Lansing, Sprague, Arrojo.....yuck.
Porcello is now riding a streak of 8 consecutive starts with at least 7 IP and no more than 3 runs allowed, dating back to July 29.
Might have to rethink Bens legacy after this season. Porcello looking pretty good now
Price had a similar slow start to his Red Sox career as Porcello, not quite as bad though. Since Bannister came in however , Price is 6-5 with a 2.78 ERA. Porcello is 9-2 with a 2.44 ERA (coming into tonight) although he was pretty good before too . Thats a pretty good 1-2 regardless of who you call the ace.
Price ERA is too high for Cy Young considerations, and Porcello does not have enough K's and his ERA over 3, so despite the high W total, he probably is not getting it barring a phenomenal finish. Tango has him 5th coming into todays game and Price 16th
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py
Price had a similar slow start to his Red Sox career as Porcello, not quite as bad though. Since Bannister came in however , Price is 6-5 with a 2.78 ERA. Porcello is 9-2 with a 2.44 ERA (coming into tonight) although he was pretty good before too . Thats a pretty good 1-2 regardless of who you call the ace.
Price ERA is too high for Cy Young considerations, and Porcello does not have enough K's and his ERA over 3, so despite the high W total, he probably is not getting it barring a phenomenal finish. Tango has him 5th coming into todays game and Price 16th
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py
I like this chart
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+II&group=1&sort=2&time=0&pos=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&splitType=0
A full run higher than others. The guy's earned his praise, no doubt, but damned if first round of chicken and beers isn't on him after his starts, the team really takes the pressure off him
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+II&group=1&sort=2&time=0&pos=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&splitType=0
A full run higher than others. The guy's earned his praise, no doubt, but damned if first round of chicken and beers isn't on him after his starts, the team really takes the pressure off him
We know about the Killer Bs, but why does no one talk about the Killer Ps? Pomeranz has a 3.00 ERA with 9.9 K/9; Price leads the AL in innings pitched, has fanned 9.5 per 9, and has won his last five; and Porcello is Porcello -- 19-3 and currently #2 in the AL in WHIP after Verlander.
(And fittingly ... the Killer Ps are pitchers while the Killer Bs are batters.)
Since 2001 a guy who has won at least 20 games has never not won the CY Young. In 2000, Randy Johnson beat out Tom Glavine, though it was 19 to 20. Johnson's ERA plus was 181 to Glavine's 135 that year and he obviously blew him away in strikeouts.
Porcello is likely to be the second, but he does have a 4 win edge at this point. He will really have to earn it since he is on track to face the Jays and O's twice. All other things being equal, Kluber probably has the edge with the more than half win WAR lead (4.7 to 4.0) and the ERA lead with 3.09 to Porcello's 3.23. Some voters will and should dig deeper (Porcello isn't close in xFIP), but it's going to be a really close race with no stand out guy.
If he gets to 22 wins, it would be really hard for him not to win the Cy, but I think he'd have to do something like that to have a chance. Contenders vs. Non-contenders shouldn't matter, but they may be the tie breaker, so other guys could fall back like Sale or Quintana.
Porcello is likely to be the second, but he does have a 4 win edge at this point. He will really have to earn it since he is on track to face the Jays and O's twice. All other things being equal, Kluber probably has the edge with the more than half win WAR lead (4.7 to 4.0) and the ERA lead with 3.09 to Porcello's 3.23. Some voters will and should dig deeper (Porcello isn't close in xFIP), but it's going to be a really close race with no stand out guy.
If he gets to 22 wins, it would be really hard for him not to win the Cy, but I think he'd have to do something like that to have a chance. Contenders vs. Non-contenders shouldn't matter, but they may be the tie breaker, so other guys could fall back like Sale or Quintana.
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The Ace steps up and delivers in maybe the most important game yet.
ESPN has him as runaway CY right now.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
Bill James model agrees, though Tom Tango has Sale with a slight lead and Kluber and Porcello right behind.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py
ESPN has him as runaway CY right now.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
Bill James model agrees, though Tom Tango has Sale with a slight lead and Kluber and Porcello right behind.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py