Revis: Reportedly Signs with the Jets

mwonow · Mar 2, 2015

I struggled a little bit with the second and third questions. I think the Pats should and will go a little above their comfort zone, but by a little I mean something along the lines of $17-$18M rather than $16M. And "material" - yep, though there's a reasonable chance that there will be a Pats logo on the banner even if he leaves...but I hope it's moot, too!

Valek123 · Mar 2, 2015

I am the one who answered the bottom question no, purely due to the fact that if they don't spend on Revis I think they will go to the D-line for a major upgrade which would increase pressure on the qb's consistently and that might mitigate some of the significant drop from Revis to X. I could be exceptionally wrong, but that's my thought process and why I stand alone with no.

crystalline · Mar 2, 2015

1. I think the Pats will offer a deal that is below the top of the market, but structured so he can say he was the highest paid CB from some perspective.
I have no idea whether he will take it.
3. I am not going to be paralyzed with grief if Revis leaves. I think the Pats will make him a large, fair offer, and if he doesn't take it that will free up money elsewhere. I worry about injury risk to any one player with a high salary. And I think they'd make do with Browner, Ryan, Arrington, and Butler. Maybe Butler will come into his own.

dcmissle · Mar 2, 2015

I think something is likely to get done by the end of this week.

If he hits FA, I think the odds are very high that he is gone. Some team is likely to overwhelm him, and the Pats understandably will be forced to move on fairly quickly unless they have no interest in any of the significant players who will be free agents.

"Here is our offer, we're leaving it on the table" is not likely to last more than a few days into the FA period.

MillarTime · Mar 2, 2015

They need to sign him and they should go beyond their comfort zone to do so, if needed. They are looking at 2 (maybe 3) year window with Brady, so I would be perfectly happy mortgaging 2019/2020 to maximize their opportunity over the next couple years.

tims4wins · Mar 2, 2015

I'm torn on how far they should go to sign him. At times, the defense was the best it has looked since 07 or 04. Other times, the defense didn't look much different than the past few years. When Flacco put up 28 points in the first 35 minutes with 4 TDs and 0 picks, it didn't seem like Revis had much of an effect. Had the Pats lost that game how would people feel? Same story in the Super Bowl - if Butler doesn't make the pick and we lose 31-28, how do people feel? That would have been 31 points given up in 2 of the 3 playoff games. I get that you can't pin much, or maybe any of it, on Revis, but if he is that much of a difference maker, shouldn't the D be expected to perform better?

On the flip side, we have a 1 for 1 sample: the one year they had Revis, they finally got over the hump and won it all. He was mostly very good to great all year long, and at times the D was dominant.

Ultimately I don't love the idea of overpaying him when he hits his mid 30s, but given Brady's age, I am leaning toward being ok with GFIN for the next 3 or so years even if it means some cap hits in 4 or 5 years.

ragnarok725 · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
I'm torn on how far they should go to sign him. At times, the defense was the best it has looked since 07 or 04. Other times, the defense didn't look much different than the past few years. When Flacco put up 28 points in the first 35 minutes with 4 TDs and 0 picks, it didn't seem like Revis had much of an effect. Had the Pats lost that game how would people feel? Same story in the Super Bowl - if Butler doesn't make the pick and we lose 31-28, how do people feel? That would have been 31 points given up in 2 of the 3 playoff games. I get that you can't pin much, or maybe any of it, on Revis, but if he is that much of a difference maker, shouldn't the D be expected to perform better?

This is pretty much where I'm at. If the Pats offer him a deal commensurate with the top CBs and he declines in favor of a cap-busting contract elsewhere, they'll have that money to spend, potentially on the DL. Seeing teams still march down the field with ease towards the end of games in the playoffs really made it clear that no single defensive player is really going to make or break things.

I'm surprised that so many people replied "Yes" to the presence of Revis, specifically, changing their chances in a material way. We'd need to see what they do with the money first. I bet they'd spend it on a series of useful parts that ultimately make me feel similarly good about their chances next year.

I don't think they need to go all-out, and I think this team will be right back in the thick of things at the end of the season again, with or without Revis.

mwonow · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
Ultimately I don't love the idea of overpaying him when he hits his mid 30s, but given Brady's age, I am leaning toward being ok with GFIN for the next 3 or so years even if it means some cap hits in 4 or 5 years.

Thanks for this - it underscores how $%#!ing lucky we are to be Pats fans. Question: how many fans of other teams would love to be ruminating about whether continuing down a path that's yielded a 15-year run of excellence or going all-in to defend the Lombardi is the right choice?

(A: all of them!)

soxhop411 · Mar 2, 2015

@JohnMiddlekauff: So according to Schefty w/Colin, Revis is also expected to hit the market

Kenny F'ing Powers · Mar 2, 2015

soxhop411 said:
@JohnMiddlekauff: So according to Schefty w/Colin, Revis is also expected to hit the market

We all know this already. The Patriots aren't picking up his option.

theapportioner · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
Ultimately I don't love the idea of overpaying him when he hits his mid 30s, but given Brady's age, I am leaning toward being ok with GFIN for the next 3 or so years even if it means some cap hits in 4 or 5 years.

Presumably by then, there will be a cheaper quarterback (Garoppolo or someone else), which would mitigate that cap hit during the immediate post-Brady era.

BigJimEd · Mar 2, 2015

They could sign one beforehand but I don't think many feel it is likely.

Even is Revis really wants to come back, it still suits him to become a UFA and use that as negotiating leverage.

I don't think there is anything new here. There have been reports that Revis would not talk extension during the season.

tims4wins · Mar 2, 2015

theapportioner said:
Presumably by then, there will be a cheaper quarterback (Garoppolo or someone else), which would mitigate that cap hit during the immediate post-Brady era.

True, although Brady's hit isn't astronomical like other elite QBs

tims4wins · Mar 2, 2015

TheoShmeo said:
But can't the Pats sign him to a long term deal before March 9 during their exclusive period? Or do they have to pick up his option in order to cut a new deal?

My assumption was that the Pats can sign him to a new deal before March 9 and I am interpreting Schefter as saying that he does not think that will happen because Revis will only negotiate with the Patriots when other teams can join the bidding. Assuming that's true, I'd like to know if that was Revis' intent all along or whether it was prompted by any recent negotiations between the Pats and Revis.

Highly likely it was his intent all along. How could he accept an offer from the Pats without knowing what other teams would offer him?

Edit: which really reinforces the legitimacy of the tampering, not to get into that discussion again

PayrodsFirstClutchHit · Mar 2, 2015

ragnarok725 said:
I'm surprised that so many people replied "Yes" to the presence of Revis, specifically, changing their chances in a material way. We'd need to see what they do with the money first. I bet they'd spend it on a series of useful parts that ultimately make me feel similarly good about their chances next year.

I was on the Yes to impact side. I understand the Pats may add other pieces that may lesson the net impact of losing Revis. Given how the secondary has gone from a liability to a strength and how others around Revis have lifted their game given their appropriate roles in the seconday, the defense would take a step back without him for some period of time.

The Pats may figure it out 6 or 7 games into the season, but you would expect there to be some adjustment period for the secondary even if the Pats added Suh and other D lineman.

I am not saying the Pats cannot win the SB without Revis. I am just saying it is difficult to imagine how his loss has zero impact.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
I'm torn on how far they should go to sign him. At times, the defense was the best it has looked since 07 or 04. Other times, the defense didn't look much different than the past few years. When Flacco put up 28 points in the first 35 minutes with 4 TDs and 0 picks, it didn't seem like Revis had much of an effect. Had the Pats lost that game how would people feel? Same story in the Super Bowl - if Butler doesn't make the pick and we lose 31-28, how do people feel? That would have been 31 points given up in 2 of the 3 playoff games. I get that you can't pin much, or maybe any of it, on Revis, but if he is that much of a difference maker, shouldn't the D be expected to perform better?

Yeah, there's something to that I guess, although two games is a pretty small sample size. Even so, getting two defensive stops to win two big games in playoffs, though, was significant, and Harmon and Butler in part are able to make their plays because one side is taken care of. The Patriots didn't lose those games. And in both, they buckled down and made stops in the third and fourth quarters that allowed comebacks by getting the other team off the field quickly.

Maybe I'm focused too much on "winning" on defense with the Harmon and Butler interceptions. One the one hand, one has to be careful of letting what happens at the end of games affect how one views the defense. On the other, though, it seems pretty clear to me that in the playoffs at least (and at least for the Patriots) -- and especially in the Super Bowl -- an awful lot of shit goes down traditionally at the end of halves. I posted in some thread or other the massive percentage of points that have been scored in the last 5 minutes of halves in Patriots playoff games and the Brady-era Super Bowls especially. I think there's something about the nature of the playoffs where you prepare very hard for one team, both teams make adjustments, and then shit gets all chaotic at the end of halves when teams are in two minute mode and all of the sudden while they've been having 10 minutes of commercials all over the place they stop doing that and everything starts happening really quickly. The Patriots threw up two stops in that situation against the Ravens and the Seahawks, when that had been a problem in the past.

Anyway, that's kind of an aside to the bigger question, which is what stat should one look at to try to figure out the effect of Revis on the defense? One stat that seemed significantly better this year was opponents' third down conversions, especially in the second half. The last few years it had started to feel like third and eight, or whatever, and the other guys had us just where they wanted us. This year, things felt more normal -- that third and long was a tough spot for our opponents. I can't find this damned stat anywhere, though, other than by going gamelog by gamelog. One stat I could find was total first downs allowed. Overall, opponents' first downs converted were better than years past -- 284 as compared to 319, 307, 346, and 325 in prior years. That jumps out as significant to me. That's upwards of two or three fewer first downs a game, and with takeaways being relatively modest. It seems like much of that should go on the secondary, but it's hard to say, because rush defense also has been better.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
I'm torn on how far they should go to sign him. At times, the defense was the best it has looked since 07 or 04. Other times, the defense didn't look much different than the past few years. When Flacco put up 28 points in the first 35 minutes with 4 TDs and 0 picks, it didn't seem like Revis had much of an effect. Had the Pats lost that game how would people feel? Same story in the Super Bowl - if Butler doesn't make the pick and we lose 31-28, how do people feel? That would have been 31 points given up in 2 of the 3 playoff games. I get that you can't pin much, or maybe any of it, on Revis, but if he is that much of a difference maker, shouldn't the D be expected to perform better?

On the flip side, we have a 1 for 1 sample: the one year they had Revis, they finally got over the hump and won it all. He was mostly very good to great all year long, and at times the D was dominant.

Ultimately I don't love the idea of overpaying him when he hits his mid 30s, but given Brady's age, I am leaning toward being ok with GFIN for the next 3 or so years even if it means some cap hits in 4 or 5 years.

I think the tricky thing is that the overpaying is likely to start well before his mid-30s. People underestimate just how rare it is for players to remain dominant at the CB position into their 30s. Reposting something I noted in the other Revis thread a few weeks ago...

To give some recent context, Asomugha's last first or second team All Pro season was at age 29, Ty Law's last such season was at age 28, Rod Woodson's last such season (at CB) was at age 29, and Champ Bailey only had one such season after age 29. Deion Sanders made all pro teams through age 32 but he's basically the exception to the rule and, arguably, the GOAT at the position. Signing a CB to a huge deal in his mid 20s and at age 30 just isn't the same thing. Whether other teams really understand and internalize that is another matter.

Revis is going into his age 30 season. Whether he can remain at the very, very top of the game (meaning best CB or one of the 2-3 best CBs) even over the next couple years is hugely uncertain. Deion is really the only guy to have remained consistently among the very best CBs at age 30+. Maybe Revis will go the Deion route because he's just that good. One can also argue that Revis is still worth keeping around even if he's just a Top 5-10 CB, not the best CB in the league, and that we should just be in GFIN mode given that we probably only have 1-3 more seasons of high quality Brady play anyway given his age. But there is a ton of risk in this contract and its not just risk that will kick in during the latter years. Given how many CBs decline, the risk of significantly overpaying him for his production starts immediately.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 2, 2015

Shane Richardson ‏@ShaneNFL 15s16 seconds ago
Wow, @AdamSchefter just indicated #Patriots will let Revis hit the free agency market...wow. I didn't see that coming that quick.

Don't see this on his Twitter page. Did he say this on TV? If he did, then it jives with his comments to Bob Socci at the combine that he will go for the money. Did anybody hear this from Schefter?

E5 Yaz · Mar 2, 2015

"Indicated" is such a wishy-washy word. If Schefter did say something to this effect, were there conditions involved?

Such as ... "If the Patriots can't work out a restructured deal, they'll let Revis hit free agency."

DJnVa · Mar 2, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
Don't see this on his Twitter page. Did he say this on TV? If he did, then it jives with his comments to Bob Socci at the combine that he will go for the money. Did anybody hear this from Schefter?

From a post above, he said it on Cowherd.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 2, 2015

E5 Yaz said:
"Indicated" is such a wishy-washy word. If Schefter did say something to this effect, were there conditions involved?

Such as ... "If the Patriots can't work out a restructured deal, they'll let Revis hit free agency."

Right, the context of that comment is important. That's why I asked if anybody had heard it.

amarshal2 · Mar 2, 2015

The Pats can afford to lose Revis and make it work. They can afford to lose McCourty and make it work. They can't afford to lose Revis + McCourty. That's just way too much to replace in terms of talent given their reluctance to spend big on somebody else's FA's.

E5 Yaz · Mar 2, 2015

If Revis were to sign with the Jets, what are the chances the tampering charges would stick and what could be the logical (not wish-casting) compensation?

Koufax · Mar 2, 2015

I heard him on Cowherd. It sounded to me as though he was saying that Revis has a choice: Get more money in NY and be the talk of the town, but lose; or play on Tom Brady's team for less money (a lot less, the way he laid it out) and win.

jsinger121 · Mar 2, 2015

Koufax said:
I heard him on Cowherd. It sounded to me as though he was saying that Revis has a choice: Get more money in NY and be the talk of the town, but lose; or play on Tom Brady's team for less money (a lot less, the way he laid it out) and win.

The Pats would offer a competitive deal maybe not the highest on the market but nothing to sneeze at either.

amarshal2 · Mar 2, 2015

amarshal2 said:
The Pats can afford to lose Revis and make it work. They can afford to lose McCourty and make it work. They can't afford to lose Revis + McCourty. That's just way too much to replace in terms of talent given their reluctance to spend big on somebody else's FA's.

To add to this...

Schefter is pretty reliable (though we obviously should not assume 100%). This generally seems unknowable given that the deadline is a week away and the Pats probably haven't made up their minds. The only way I can figure that this would be knowable is if the Pats set an internal deadline for today to figure out their approach with Revis & McCourty given the tag deadline. That would make some sense and could explain the timing of a leak from an agent that Schefter is able to pick up on.

IF that's the case, there are two broad scenarios to consider:
-The Pats decide to let Revis hit FA and then simultaneously not extend themselves a little bit for 1 year of McCourty....that seems bizarre
-The Pats decide to let Revis hit FA and also decide to go a little further for McCourty than they had wanted to...either via the tag or an extension...this sounds a little more plausible

Koufax · Mar 2, 2015

My dim recollection was that he speculated that the guaranteed money in NY would be $4MM more than the Pats are likely to offer. $4M buys a nice house.

jsinger121 · Mar 2, 2015

Koufax said:
My dim recollection was that he speculated that the guaranteed money in NY would be $4MM more than the Pats are likely to offer. $4M buys a nice house.

4 million is fucking a joke to leave to play on a constant loser franchise.

Norm loves Vera · Mar 2, 2015

Don't the Patriots have a back log of $ they need to pay to meet some mandated total? I remember reading the Patriots were among a handful who paid under a threshold over the last few years. Couldn't they front load his contract with some of that $?

Revis has to like the taste of winning and if the offers are close, the Patriots should be the logical choice. The Jets are not going to be competitive during the span of Revis' next contract, and there is something to be said about being part of a legacy. If he does go to the Jets, he most certainly will be an island in an ocean of suck. (I know I am fan boy wish casting.)

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Mar 2, 2015

jsinger121 said:
4 million is fucking a joke to leave to play on a constant loser franchise.

It's more than most of us will make in a career.

jsinger121 · Mar 2, 2015

DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
It's more than most of us will make in a career.

No shit but in the football world for someone who has made the type of money he has made an extra 4 mil isn't that much of a difference to go from the Super Bowl champs to a constant bottom feeder.

Salem's Lot · Mar 2, 2015

jsinger121 said:
4 million is fucking a joke to leave to play on a constant loser franchise.

It's also a joke for an owner to let a player like Revis walk over $4 million. You can look at this from both sides.

E5 Yaz · Mar 2, 2015

jsinger121 said:
No shit but in the football world for someone who has made the type of money he has made an extra 4 mil isn't that much of a difference to go from the Super Bowl champs to a constant bottom feeder.

If the $4M figure is accurate.

Revis has his ring now. For some guys, one ringmight be enough if it means they can get one more huge contract elsewhere

Stitch01 · Mar 2, 2015

Whoops didn't see the latest tweet before voting. If Revis hits the open market Id say he's a decided underdog to be a Patriot next season.

Not sure if that would be material or not, guess it depends if going from something like a 7-1 to an 9-1 shot or something like that is material.

BannedbyNYYFans.com · Mar 2, 2015

Pretty funny...and true.

https://twitter.com/jerrythornton1/status/572397015038091264

How @Patriots do business, summed up: It's March 2, and only comments we've heard on the Revis talks have come from Jets owner

MuppetAsteriskTalk · Mar 2, 2015

I wish we would have shipped a late round draft pick to Tampa for the right to keep Revis under that deal he was on.

Reverend · Mar 2, 2015

tims4wins said:
Ultimately I don't love the idea of overpaying him when he hits his mid 30s, but given Brady's age, I am leaning toward being ok with GFIN for the next 3 or so years even if it means some cap hits in 4 or 5 years.

Yep, and this is the first time I've ever felt that way. Normally, I've loved the "Don't mortgage the future approach," especially now that the fourth championship is sealed and the bogus narratives obliterated.

But another championship in the next couple of years wouldn't just be for all the marbles--it would be the generation of a whole new type of marbles.

TheoShmeo said:
But can't the Pats sign him to a long term deal before March 9 during their exclusive period? Or do they have to pick up his option in order to cut a new deal?

My assumption was that the Pats can sign him to a new deal before March 9 and I am interpreting Schefter as saying that he does not think that will happen because Revis will only negotiate with the Patriots when other teams can join the bidding. Assuming that's true, I'd like to know if that was Revis' intent all along or whether it was prompted by any recent negotiations between the Pats and Revis.

I obviously have no insight into Revis's thought processes, but, given his commitments and principles regarding the union, he has very serious reasons to hit the market even if he strongly favors signing with the Patriots.

Just another factor in how hard it is to try to scope these things from the outside.

E5 Yaz · Mar 2, 2015

There is no Rev said:
Yep, and this is the first time I've ever felt that way. Normally, I've loved the "Don't mortgage the future approach," especially now that the fourth championship is sealed and the bogus narratives obliterated.

But another championship in the next couple of years wouldn't just be for all the marbles--it would be the generation of a whole new type of marbles.

This is, of course, the key question. How to balance potentially bad contracts on the back end in the twilight of Brady's career

tims4wins · Mar 2, 2015

There is no Rev said:
Yep, and this is the first time I've ever felt that way. Normally, I've loved the "Don't mortgage the future approach," especially now that the fourth championship is sealed and the bogus narratives obliterated.

But another championship in the next couple of years wouldn't just be for all the marbles--it would be the generation of a whole new type of marbles.

I obviously have no insight into Revis's thought processes, but, given his commitments and principles regarding the union, he has very serious reasons to hit the market even if he strongly favors signing with the Patriots.

Just another factor in how hard it is to try to scope these things from the outside.

Ditto, first time I have felt that way too. I have always wanted them to be good after Brady retires but a 5th Lombardi would simply change everything, forever.

soxhop411 · Mar 2, 2015

shalise manza young ‏@shalisemyoung 1m1 minute ago
been told getting him done is NE's priority RT @Whatismusic_ What's your Revis Radar showing?

Stitch01 · Mar 2, 2015

I just don't think they view the Brady window the same way a large portion of the fanbase does. They obviously know how special Tom is and know that having a GOAT level QB is the biggest advantage possible when trying to compete for championships, but I honestly think they are building the team with the thought that they will be contenders in Brady's last year and in the year after Brady leaves. They might borrow from future years on the margin when they think there is real value there, (i.e. take the dead money associated with getting Revis here last season), but I think they're basically going to stick to the same player valuation system they've used successfully for 15 years. If they think Revis is worth X and he can get X+Y, they probably aren't going to sign him even if he'd be generate surplus value in the Brady window and only reduce value outside the Brady window.

Ed Hillel · Mar 2, 2015

I kind of take the Schefter report with a grain of salt, not because I don't respect Schefter (I do, immensely), but because he's basically just leaking stuff from an opponent, in this case possibly Revis' agent. Even something like 4 million dollars more means absolutely nothing without context. Four million more per year? Overall? Well, ok, but what are the numbers? If the Pats go up to 52 million guaranteed or something for what amounts to three years am I supposed to be mad at BeliKraft if the Jets offer 56 over the same span? There just isn't enough information at this point, we'll know soon enough.

Koufax · Mar 2, 2015

I think it was $4M overall on a multi-year contract. He was guessing that the guaranteed money would all come due in the first three years. So really it's $4MM over three years that he was talking about.

Ed Hillel · Mar 2, 2015

That's just a really strange thing to "guess" if he's not being fed the information from someone. So either the Jets are tampering again or Revis' agent is trying to get the Pats to increase their offer. Or both. It doesn't really tell us anything about Revis' state of mind, and I'm not seeing anything that has actually suggested the Patriots are letting him walk into free agency.

Koufax · Mar 2, 2015

I don't think that Schefter was suggesting that either. He was just laying out the alternatives in front of Revis. He was speculating, not saying that he had any inside information.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 2, 2015

dcmissle said:
If he hits FA, I think the odds are very high that he is gone. Some team is likely to overwhelm him, and the Pats understandably will be forced to move on fairly quickly unless they have no interest in any of the significant players who will be free agents.

This is what I've preached since the season ended. If Revis is aware that this is the case.....why the hell would he ever NOT hit free agency? He will not have a shortage of suitors/over payers and would be a terrible business person at best or a damn fool at worst.

Revis is neither as he's held out twice already to secure better deals.....he's not going to pass up the opportunity to secure a better deal without even having to hold out. It's either wishful thinking or ignorance to past evidence/action of this person to think we simply need to give him a market deal or even greater and expect a signature with a smile. Revis is a hired gun and understands this business.

Edit: LOL @ $4m being a joke as poster who commented on typical persons career earnings indicate. Look at the loops Brady had to take just to give away a truck without taking a hit.

BigJimEd · Mar 2, 2015

EEI replayed Schefter's comments. Sounded like he was just giving his opinion not reporting any inside info.
He talked about the option and that the Pats weren't going to pick it up. Then said he would be surprised if Revis didn't go to FA before quickly amending it to he would become a UFA.

Didn't sound like anything we haven't heard many times already this off-season.

Revis: Reportedly Signs with the Jets

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