Report: Bruins sign Pastrnak - 6 years, $40 million ($6.6667 AAV)

burstnbloom

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I have such a hard time with perspective about this. If he chooses the 6 year deal, he gives up only 1 year of free agency and costs himself $10 mil tops. When you're making $50 mil and will easily top that if everything goes well on your next deal, it feels pretty hard to pass up. I get that the market is higher than that, but it would be really hard to say not to that kind of security.
 

LogansDad

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Saw this on my feed earlier, and was going to post it in the B's news thread, but saw the $6M number had been floated there. I have the same thoughts most of you guys do, I don't think this gets it done for Pasta's side.

(begin snark) Fucking Chiarelli, man. Contracts might stabilize if he'd stop handing out ludicrous money to everyone he wants to sign. (/snark end)
 

cshea

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Here's what I've come up with as a list of some comparables. Just looking at high end draft picks that turned pro either immediately or 1 year after the draft. Started with the 2012-14 drafts. Stuck with forwards. Only really looked into the counting stats for now, they'll be good enough for this, but will try to do a deeper dive into it.

2012 draft

- Alex Galchenyuk- 3rd overall pick. Made jump to NHL. ELC years- 193 games, 42-62=104 (0.54 points-per-game). Coming off ELC, signed a bridge deal, 2 years $2.8 AAV. Just signed a 2nd bridge deal, 3/$4.9 AAV to take him to UFA.

- Filip Forsberg- 1 year in Europe after draft. ELC years he posted 60-73=133 in 182 games (0.73 ppg). Signed 6/$6mm AAV extension.

2013 draft

- Nathan McKinnon- Immediately in NHL. 59-94=153 (0.70 ppg) in 218 games while on ELC. 7 years $6.3 AAV extension.

- Aleksander Barkov- 191 games, 52-67=119 (0.62 ppg) signed extension for 6 $5.9 AAV.

- Jonathan Drouin- OHL after draft. 29-66=95 (0.57 ppg) in 164 ELC games. 6 year $5.5 AAV extension (with new team after trade).

- Sean Monahan- 80-79=159 (0.67 ppg) in 237 ELC games. 7 year $6.375 AAV extension.

2014 Draft

- Leon Draisaitl- 50-87=137 (.72 ppg). 8 years $8.5 AAV

- David Pastrnak- 59-64=123 in 173 games, .72 ppg.

Most of those guys are C's, but nothing higher than $6.375 AAV until Draisaitl. So, I can see why the Bruins would be around $6mm AAV, and I can also see why Pastrnak would want more. Chiarelli really screwed the B's over here, but the B's also shoulder blame for letting it get to the point where a new market was set. Before Draisaitl they may have been able to keep it under $7mm AAV, but I don't see that happening now.

As an aside- curious to see Toronto navigate these waters with their 3 studs in the next 2 years. They probably have to McDavid Matthews, then Draisaitl both Marner and Nylander. Have fun.
 

cshea

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That seems about right.

My issue on the Oilers side is they made Draisaitl the 9th (10th if we include McDavid's extension that kicks in after this season) highest paid player in the league by cap hit. I'm pretty sure he's not in that class. The more I think about it, they more I think that contract is really going to screw up the market. They also gave him the contract without a big enough sample of Draisaitl away from McDavid to gauge if he is truly elite and can be a force on his own, but that's another story.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Here's what I've come up with as a list of some comparables. Just looking at high end draft picks that turned pro either immediately or 1 year after the draft. Started with the 2012-14 drafts. Stuck with forwards. Only really looked into the counting stats for now, they'll be good enough for this, but will try to do a deeper dive into it.

2012 draft

- Alex Galchenyuk- 3rd overall pick. Made jump to NHL. ELC years- 193 games, 42-62=104 (0.54 points-per-game). Coming off ELC, signed a bridge deal, 2 years $2.8 AAV. Just signed a 2nd bridge deal, 3/$4.9 AAV to take him to UFA.

- Filip Forsberg- 1 year in Europe after draft. ELC years he posted 60-73=133 in 182 games (0.73 ppg). Signed 6/$6mm AAV extension.

2013 draft

- Nathan McKinnon- Immediately in NHL. 59-94=153 (0.70 ppg) in 218 games while on ELC. 7 years $6.3 AAV extension.

- Aleksander Barkov- 191 games, 52-67=119 (0.62 ppg) signed extension for 6 $5.9 AAV.

- Jonathan Drouin- OHL after draft. 29-66=95 (0.57 ppg) in 164 ELC games. 6 year $5.5 AAV extension (with new team after trade).

- Sean Monahan- 80-79=159 (0.67 ppg) in 237 ELC games. 7 year $6.375 AAV extension.

2014 Draft

- Leon Draisaitl- 50-87=137 (.72 ppg). 8 years $8.5 AAV

- David Pastrnak- 59-64=123 in 173 games, .72 ppg.

Most of those guys are C's, but nothing higher than $6.375 AAV until Draisaitl. So, I can see why the Bruins would be around $6mm AAV, and I can also see why Pastrnak would want more. Chiarelli really screwed the B's over here, but the B's also shoulder blame for letting it get to the point where a new market was set. Before Draisaitl they may have been able to keep it under $7mm AAV, but I don't see that happening now.

As an aside- curious to see Toronto navigate these waters with their 3 studs in the next 2 years. They probably have to McDavid Matthews, then Draisaitl both Marner and Nylander. Have fun.
I'd like to know what leverage you think Pasta has to turn down the current offer and request anything north of $7M. He might squeeze an extra few hundred thousand from them by threatening to sit out, but I don't see him getting an offer from the Bruins that approaches $7M. They aren't trading him and Pasta isn't sitting out the year, so where does that leave us? He'll negotiate up some portion of this offer, but it's not going to look drastically different than what it is.

I just want to know from the folks that say that this offer isn't getting it done what options you think Pasta has that will drastically influence what he's going to get. I'm not seeing it.
 

cshea

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Offer sheet and Europe/KHL. Long shots, but it's the only leverage he's got. I'm a little surprised the KHL whispers haven't happened yet. Those probably come soon if he remains without a deal as we near camp.

I'm not too concerned at this point. There doesn't seem to be any animosity between the sides, and as I've said before, Don's best work has been re-signing his own players. It'd be nice to get it done before camp starts in 2 weeks so they can hit the ground running.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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Two things I don't like about this tweet:

1. Dreger saying it gives credence to the possibility this can get bad.
2. It lends Haggerty credibility. Yuck.


This about nails the Pastrnak situation. This negotiation is {far}from over by the sounds of things.
 

cshea

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Pretty good take by Haggs. The Tarasenko comp is a good one. I've always thought stylistically Pastrnak was righty Tarasenko. The numbers seem to bear that out. Very similar production on ELC's, Vlad did play 2 post draft seasons in the KHL .
 

burstnbloom

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I don't really like any of the comps Joe used other than Draisatl, and that contract looks like a huge overpay by Chia. Johanssen and Kuznetsov's deals both buy off extensive free agency years and Tarasenko is a good player comp but his deal also takes him to age 32. A 7 year deal for Pastrnak only buys one year of FA eligibility. That has to be factored in. The obvious comps are still Forsberg and Monahan. Adjust Forsberg's for one year of inflation and pay him $6.5 mil. That is pretty fair. I'm sure Pastrnak and his agent are asking for a lot more but other than Draisatl, I don't see the relevant comps and he doesn't have any real leverage.
 

cshea

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Pasta is 4 years away from UFA. It's 7 years in the league or hit age 27, whichever is first. 7 year deal buys 3 UFA years.
 

burstnbloom

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ah i stand corrected, my mistake. That doesn't change my thoughts on the comps as it affects those players similarly but it does shorten the gap between the Kusnetsov/Johanssen deals and the Monahan, Forsberg Schieflle deals.

I'm butchering names like crazy.
 

cshea

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Statistically, Kuznetsov is not a bad comp. Kuznetsov is more of a playmaker while Pastrnak's a goal scorer, but they aren't too bad. Point production through the first 3 years of their career are similar- 0.71 points per game each, but Pasta did it at 18-21 against Kuznetsov's 21-23. Kuznetsov's situation was a bit different though since he played 4 more years in the KHL after getting drafted by Washington. He was only eligible for a 2-year ELC when he signed with Washington and they essentially burned the first year with an end-of-year 17 game stint. So coming off his ELC he didn't have much of a track record and signed a 2/$3mm AAV bridge deal. He exploded the following year which led him to the monster 8/$7.8 AAV extension he signed this summer.

Maybe the Bruins end up going the Kucherov route, but I think this will end up costing them in the long run. Kucherov held out briefly then signed a bridge 3/$4.76 AAV deal last year. He'll be a year away from UFA when this contract expires, which is dicey. They're going to have to pay through the nose to retain him long term when this one's up.

Johansen went through a messy situation with Columbus. Hard to draw much of a comparison there.
 

burstnbloom

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I think the real comps are still draisaitl, Monahan, Schiefle and Forsberg. Chia really fucked us with that crazy contract because the other three seem like a pretty obvious market. I would assume you'd have to adjust a little for inflation but $7.5 seems really too high given those comps. At this point, though, I just want him in the fold. Overpaying a guy like Pasta is the least of the Bruins problems with guys like Mcquaid and Beleskey on the roster.
 

cshea

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Talks supposed to resume today. Cam plays off the Draisaitl deal as an outlier, says they haven't heard much from Pastrnak's side since they made their offer. Pastrnak's agent says, no, we told them the offer wasn't what their looking for. Pastrnak's side is looking for an 8 year deal to maybe find common ground. Cam also says internal payroll isn't an issue, they just don't want to overpay based on 1 contract (Draisaitl).

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/bruins/2017/09/bruins_pastrnak_s_agent_have_some_work_to_do_on_contract
 

TheRealness

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Talks supposed to resume today. Cam plays off the Draisaitl deal as an outlier, says they haven't heard much from Pastrnak's side since they made their offer. Pastrnak's agent says, no, we told them the offer wasn't what their looking for. Pastrnak's side is looking for an 8 year deal to maybe find common ground. Cam also says internal payroll isn't an issue, they just don't want to overpay based on 1 contract (Draisaitl).

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/bruins/2017/09/bruins_pastrnak_s_agent_have_some_work_to_do_on_contract
That almost reads as if from the agent's perspective they got an offer they thought was too low, and never countered. They just said "no way", and didn't do anything further.

Seems like it should get done, but there is a lot of posturing going on.
 

grantb

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Offer sheet and Europe/KHL. Long shots, but it's the only leverage he's got. I'm a little surprised the KHL whispers haven't happened yet. Those probably come soon if he remains without a deal as we near camp.
And there you go:
 

Haunted

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Can you post the text of it for those of us confined to mobile?
 

TheRealness

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As I have posted, I do not have a lot of faith when it comes to these negotiations in Sweeney or Neely. Maybe I am still concerned about how they have shipped out past RWs, and because I think Pastrnak is the opposite of both of the last two (Kessel and Seguin) in his compete level and how he plays defense, I can be biased, to say the least. I just want them to sign him, and move forward.

Yet, the more I read this, it sounds like the Agent is deliberately trying to use that prior negative press to the advantage of his client, but he seems to be doing so in a ham-fisted way. Why take so long to get back to them on an offer? I don't think 8 years at $8m is a reasonable deal, but, that offer should have been made a long time ago. As Felger discussed, I think a good compromise would be 7 years at $7m, but I wonder if that is in the cards.

The KHL stuff is nonsense though. It would suck for me as a Bruins fan having him over there, but Pasta will just about immediately regret that decision. I think he signs, but this process hopefully concludes prior to training camp. Having this drag into the season would be detrimental to the team as a whole, and damage the relationship with Pasta long term.
 

lexrageorge

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Agree that if the B's did offer $6M AAV over 6 years, that's close enough in this RFA market to be considered a starting point in a negotiation and worthy of a response. Pasta's agent just seems hell bent on tweaking Sweeney/Neely and hoping they cave to public pressure, which is not really an agent's job. A competent agent probably could have sewed up a 7/49 deal by now.
 

cshea

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Nothing earth shattering here, but Pasta is still in the Czech and won't report tomorrow, even if a deal is reached today. Lots of dialogue the past 24 hours, exploring deals of varying length.

Give him the Tarasenko deal and be done with it.
 

RedOctober3829

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Nothing earth shattering here, but Pasta is still in the Czech and won't report tomorrow, even if a deal is reached today. Lots of dialogue the past 24 hours, exploring deals of varying length.

Give him the Tarasenko deal and be done with it.
Just get him signed. This is the type of player you spend for and not the middlers like they've signed recently. It's a no-brainer to give him what he wants as these are his prime years.
 

cshea

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Dreger's guy says they get it done soon, perhaps tonight. He goes on to hedge saying Pastrnak won't come until deal signed and could skate with a team in Europe in the interim.

 

Jordu

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What he said. If you want to offer a seven-year contract to a player, offer it to a 21-year-old goal scorer.
 

veritas

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The RFA rules create a really awkward situation where both sides do and don't have leverage. The player's leverage is to not play (and optionally play abroad), and the team's is to play hardball and offer an insulting amount of money. Long term both of those approaches are bad for business for both sides when taken to extremes. It's still smart for both sides to posture to some extent.

I still think this gets done relatively soon and I'm not that worried about it. There is mutual interest from both sides, it's strictly a money thing and they're going to figure it out.
 

cshea

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Nearing the finish line, hopefully. Be nice to have it done today and get him on the ice sometime this weekend.

 

TFP

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It just makes too much sense for both sides not to get it done. I keep holding on to the hope that logic will win out and this won't drag on much longer.

My gut says it'll be 7 years/$7m AAV.
 

TFP

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It just makes too much sense for both sides not to get it done. I keep holding on to the hope that logic will win out and this won't drag on much longer.

My gut says it'll be 7 years/$7m AAV.
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