Renfroe to Sox 1y/3.1M

Cesar Crespo

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I like the signing and you'd have to think Renfroe will be at least starting vs lefties. He has some power vs righties but no on base skills to speak of.
 

chawson

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I like it. Reminds me of the Jonny Gomes signing in winter 2013. Grab a cheap 4th OF/fringe starter/lefty masher as a safety net if the real outfield target falls through. Except Renfroe plays his position about 3x better than Gomes did.

Renfroe was very off last year, but playing for a new team in a national hotspot of a deadly pandemic is plenty good reason for him to get a pass. He still has upside, hits the ball hard and is controllable through 2023.
 

Manramsclan

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Having watched the Padres and Renfroe both on TV and in the park, I can say that he has a cannon for an arm. He can handle RF in Fenway and will be an assassin in LF who will get many assists there.

Makes a lot of sense especially if JBJ is re-signed. A LHH CF who can sit against lefties and have Verdugo slide over for a game, or sit Benintendi and have the D intact with an added offensive advantage in LF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I like it. Reminds me of the Jonny Gomes signing in winter 2013. Grab a cheap 4th OF/fringe starter/lefty masher as a safety net if the real outfield target falls through. Except Renfroe plays his position about 3x better than Gomes did.

Renfroe was very off last year, but playing for a new team in a national hotspot of a deadly pandemic is plenty good reason for him to get a pass. He still has upside, hits the ball hard and is controllable through 2023.
And a sample size of 139 PA.

Career splits:

Renfroe
.216/.268/.449 vs R in 1094 PA .256 BAbip
.258/.339/.573 vs L in 495 PA .252 BAbip

JBJ
.240/.321/.431 vs R in 2318 PA .290 BAbip
.236/.318/.367 vs L in 963 PA .318 BAbip

Ben10
.283/.361/.459 vs R in 1576 PA .325 BAbip
.243/.328/.363 vs L in 528 PA .305 BAbip (still some hope he can hit lefties. He did in 2019 and 2020 was short)

Verdugo
.281/.342/.467 vs R in 494 PA .298 BAbip
.312/.350/.437 vs L in 215 PA .376 BAbip.

Hell, the sox might want to look for another OF who can hit lefties a little.
 

E5 Yaz

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As Twitter points out, he'll play for the Red Sox 11 years after they drafted him
 

nvalvo

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.290 career OBP. Yikes.
Career vs. RHH (1094 PA): .216/.268/.449
Career vs. LHH (495 PA): .258/.339/.573

He's a very good hitter against LHP, and a deeply flawed one against RHP. Against righties, he strikes out way more, walks way less, but still homers at close to the same rate (5.5% of PA instead of 7.2%), so his isolated power is still pretty good.

I saw on twitter that Bloom said Renfroe had everyday player potential, and if I see it anywhere on his baseball-reference page, it's in his 2018 platoon splits.

2018 vs. RHH (270 PA): .245/.293/.510
2018 vs. LHH (171 PA): .253/.316/.494
 

DeadlySplitter

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relevant Bloom comments as mentioned above, all from Speier's feed: https://twitter.com/alexspeier

Bloom calls Renfroe a well-rounded player with athleticism to contribute in OF and a swing made for Fenway.
Bloom says Red Sox see Renfroe as having upside to be more than a platoon contributor. ‘The talent is there to be really a positive contributor more often than not.’
Bloom says Sox ‘still have room to add’ to their outfield. Could add a CF or corner outfielder.
If Sox were to open the season today - which, y’know, they aren’t - they’d see Verdugo as the likely CF but Bloom says they also see Benintendi and Renfroe as capable of playing CF.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Really like this as both a legitimately usable player for the season and as a nice cheap midseason trade piece to dangle if it makes sense to do so.
 

allmanbro

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I saw on twitter that Bloom said Renfroe had everyday player potential, and if I see it anywhere on his baseball-reference page, it's in his 2018 platoon splits.
I'd bet this is based on the thinking that Renfroe is a candidate to take another step forward more than based on his existing record. I know in SD, he was perennially seen as a possible breakout candidate. I'm not sure what people saw in him to make them say that, besides the fact that he was young. And he's not all that young any more.

A step forward for him would require cutting down on whiffs and popups without losing much power, and hitting more line drives. That is not an easy think to do, but maybe there's a change in swing plane or something he could make.
 

chawson

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SSS, but it looks like maybe the Rays wanted Renfroe to work deeper at-bats last year (career high 4.22 P/PA), but it didn't go very well. He swung at a lot fewer pitches in the zone than 2017-19, and a lot less overall. He did walk a bit more and K'd a bit less, but taking more fastballs for strikes early in the count made him more susceptible to secondaries, which he doesn't handle as well.
 

The Gray Eagle

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He's played 3 games at Fenway in his career, both in 2020, and has 2 HRs and 2 doubles in 11 PAs.

But one of the HRs was to right field, off batting practice-level pitcher Kyle Hart. The other was over the monster off Marcus Walden.

His Fenway doubles were off Robert Stock and Jose Peraza the infielder. So the miniscule sample size doesn't tell us much, other than he can blast batting practice pitches all over Fenway. Should be worth watching if you get into the park early enough to see BP.
 

mauf

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SSS, but it looks like maybe the Rays wanted Renfroe to work deeper at-bats last year (career high 4.22 P/PA), but it didn't go very well. He swung at a lot fewer pitches in the zone than 2017-19, and a lot less overall. He did walk a bit more and K'd a bit less, but taking more fastballs for strikes early in the count made him more susceptible to secondaries, which he doesn't handle as well.
The data on Fangraphs also suggests Renfroe’s quality of contact dipped in 2020, which I’m sure contributed to his execrable .141 BABIP. That needs to bounce back to 2018-19 levels for Renfroe to be a useful player.

I have no quarrel with the signing, but I think several posters are overstating its significance. To me, it looks like Chaim had the opportunity to grab a reserve OF he liked for short money and jumped on it, without necessarily having figured out whether JBJ, Verdugo, or someone not currently in the organization will be the starting CF in 2021.
 

nvalvo

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So JBJ is off the table?
I don't know. From where I sit, this makes it look like a JBJ reunion is *more* likely. Renfroe is a great fit as an OF4 spelling Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, all of whom hit from the left side.

He should start against every LHP and come off the bench a lot.

edit: or, exactly what RedshawksFan said.
 

mauidano

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Color me unimpressed but sure, a fourth OF for minim al investment. Expectations are low.

FFS, get me some JBJ!
 

high cheese

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Now sign Springer and JBJ, trade Verdugo for pitching. Bennie/Renfroe -JBJ -Springer left to right. Verdugo becomes centerpiece of trade for Snell like starter. Round out rotation with Kluber, sign Hand for closer. Back in contention with proven major league players.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Now sign Springer and JBJ, trade Verdugo for pitching. Bennie/Renfroe -JBJ -Springer left to right. Verdugo becomes centerpiece of trade for Snell like starter. Round out rotation with Kluber, sign Hand for closer. Back in contention with proven major league players.
That puts them WAY back into the tax. And probably the 2d highest payroll. And pays a ton to use Verdugo to upgrade pitching. Not reasonable.
 
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Doooweeeey!

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He's played 3 games at Fenway in his career, both in 2020, and has 2 HRs and 2 doubles in 11 PAs.

But one of the HRs was to right field, off batting practice-level pitcher Kyle Hart. The other was over the monster off Marcus Walden.

His Fenway doubles were off Robert Stock and Jose Peraza the infielder. So the miniscule sample size doesn't tell us much, other than he can blast batting practice pitches all over Fenway. Should be worth watching if you get into the park early enough to see BP.
This post deserves more love. LOL
 

Rwillh11

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True, but I enjoy watching teams that are way back into the tax a lot more than those that are not.
They need to be smart about how (and when) they go back into the tax. Signing two over 30 defense first center fielders to big contracts and swinging their cheapest cost controlled OF for expensive pitching doesn't make a lot of sense for making this team competitive over the next several seasons.
 

scottyno

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Now sign Springer and JBJ, trade Verdugo for pitching. Bennie/Renfroe -JBJ -Springer left to right. Verdugo becomes centerpiece of trade for Snell like starter. Round out rotation with Kluber, sign Hand for closer. Back in contention with proven major league players.
Verdugo might already be a better player than Snell for 5% of the cost, he's probably not but it's close. He's a 24 year old all star caliber OF making almost no money for the next 2-4 years, that's the kind of guy you build around.

If you can trade him for a similar cost controlled starting pitcher sure that would be better for this team, but I'm guessing that's not a very realistic option.
 

chawson

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That puts them WAY back into the tax. And probably the 2d highest payroll. And pays a ton to use Verdugo to upgrade pitching. Not reasonable.
You’re right, but I don’t see any good baseball reasons they should not exceed the tax this year.

They’re currently $38.5M under the tax after Renfroe. Under the high cheese plan -- let’s assume Springer gets 5/$110, Kluber 1/$12 with no incentives, JBJ 2/$20 and Hand 2/$18. That plan would put them about $24M over the tax threshold, with $37M coming off the books next winter and another $85M~ the following year. You might not make it under next year’s threshold if you extend E-Rod and Devers, but you still would in 2023 before the penalties really hurt (should they stay the same under the new CBA).

It’s not my money and there are other paths I prefer to this one. But I think now is the time for teams like Boston that can assume some payroll risk to load up on shorter-term deals, especially if they’re rolling with Bogaerts over the other premier shortstops.
 
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high cheese

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I agree that after one season Verdugo appears to be a guy you build around. Which is why I think you sell high and trade him for a young top end starter with a similar build around profile. That starter fills a huge void that the free agent market doesn’t seem to offer (young and good). Meanwhile, Springer brings All Star and post season juice back to a lineup who missed and will continue to miss Mookie.
 
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Van Everyman

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What is the perception of JBJ’s relationship with the Sox and Sox brass? I got the sense he was left on a bit of an island this last year during the BLM protests but perhaps there were things behind the scenes (Roenecke/Kennedy/Bloom conversations, Pillar being moved, etc.) that mitigated some of that.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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You’re right, but I don’t see any good baseball reasons they should not exceed the tax this year.

They’re currently $38.5M under the tax after Renfroe. Under the high cheese plan -- let’s assume Springer gets 5/$110, Kluber 1/$12 with no incentives, JBJ 2/$20 and Hand 2/$18. That plan would put them about $24M over the tax threshold, with $37M coming off the books next winter and another $85M~ the following year. You might not make it under next year’s threshold if you extend E-Rod and Devers, but you still would in 2023 before the penalties really hurt (should they stay the same under the new CBA).

It’s not my money and there are other paths I prefer to this one. But I think now is the time for teams like Boston that can assume some payroll risk to load up on shorter-term deals, especially if they’re rolling with Bogaerts over the other premier shortstops.
Right, it’s not our money, and while the team could decide to go right back into the tax, expecting them to add $60M+ in payroll, more in tax, lose draft pick compensation and the budget that goes with it, and likely throw in another top prospect and/or cheap MLBer in the proposed Snell deal, all during a pandemic when this year‘s revenues are again likely to be way down, seems like WEEI-level wishcasting. The odds of them taking such an approach seem overwhelmingly low.

They can still take advantage of the fact that most teams appear to be trying to reduce spending this year. Heck, Renfroe is an example of that. That allows them to retool now by staying just within the cap, keep their powder dry, and permit even bigger spending next year, on a potentially much better crop of FAs.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Once again, this shouldn't be needed to be said again, but - they aren't signing anyone with a QO attached like Springer. They are top 5 in the drafting order for the first time in 50 years.

JBJ seems to actually have a market. I have a feeling the Sox are going to go really cheap and get Almora Jr for a late game defensive replacement, use the savings in pitching, and roll.

"Free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. is drawing interest from the Phillies, Cubs, and Blue Jays, among other teams" - Morosi

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1338854757226655744
 

jon abbey

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Once again, this shouldn't be needed to be said again, but - they aren't signing anyone with a QO attached like Springer. They are top 5 in the drafting order for the first time in 50 years.
I completely agree with you, but not because of their draft position, because teams don't lose first round picks for signing free agents anymore. These are the current rules, I think BOS is in the second category and would lose a second round pick, and Bloom talked about this the other day specifically as to why they probably wouldn't sign anyone with a QO this winter.

======================================================


For teams that signs a qualified free agent…

  • A team that received revenue sharing the previous season will forfeit its third-highest selection upon. Signing a second qualified would result in the loss of that team’s fourth-highest selection. Signing a third would result in the loss of its fifth-highest selection.
  • A team that did not receive revenue sharing and also did not pay any luxury tax penalties would lose its second-highest selection as well as $500K of the league’s allotted international bonus pool. Signing additional qualified free agents would result in forfeiting the third-highest selection and another $500K of international allotments.
  • A team that paid luxury tax penalties must forfeit both its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2019 draft and forfeit $1MM of international funds. Signing a second would result in the loss of that team’s third- and sixth-highest picks, plus another $1MM in international funds.
 

jon abbey

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OK, here's the quote. This applies to four remaining players: Springer, Realmuto, LeMahieu and Bauer.

"Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month didn’t rule out the possibility of Boston signing a free agent who received a qualifying offer from his most recent team.

Still, it’s hard to envision the Red Sox rushing to make that type of investment, as landing such a player would require Boston to surrender a 2021 second-round draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus pool money in addition to shelling out a massive contract.

On Monday, Bloom was asked how he values the second-round pick in question, seeing as the Major League Baseball draft can be somewhat of a crapshoot. And he offered a reminder that Boston drafted Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia — two franchise greats — in the second round in 2002 and 2004, respectively.

“All draft picks are calculated risks to some extent. There’s no guarantees with any of them,” Bloom told reporters during a video conference. “Look, you can look at 2002 or 2004 to see just how valuable a second-round pick can be in this organization. It’s really valuable.”"

https://nesn.com/2020/12/chaim-bloom-offers-important-reminder-on-value-of-red-sox-draft-picks/
 

DeadlySplitter

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I completely agree with you, but not because of their draft position, because teams don't lose first round picks for signing free agents anymore. These are the current rules, I think BOS is in the second category and would lose a second round pick, and Bloom talked about this the other day specifically as to why they probably wouldn't sign anyone with a QO this winter.
It's still the 4th-highest pick in the 2nd round.
 

mauf

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Right, it’s not our money, and while the team could decide to go right back into the tax, expecting them to add $60M+ in payroll, more in tax, lose draft pick compensation and the budget that goes with it, and likely throw in another top prospect and/or cheap MLBer in the proposed Snell deal, all during a pandemic when this year‘s revenues are again likely to be way down, seems like WEEI-level wishcasting. The odds of them taking such an approach seem overwhelmingly low.

They can still take advantage of the fact that most teams appear to be trying to reduce spending this year. Heck, Renfroe is an example of that. That allows them to retool now by staying just within the cap, keep their powder dry, and permit even bigger spending next year, on a potentially much better crop of FAs.
That’s an apt description of the idea to which you were responding. Let this serve as a gentle reminder to everyone that standards here are higher than that.

If Chaim gets his head around the financial investment required to sign one of the four QO guys on the market (Springer, Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto), I don’t think the draft pick and pool money is going to give him pause. Sure, the second rounder you give up might amount to something, but the more immediate risk is that your $100M+ investment could be a serious hindrance to the club in 2-3 years, right about when the rebuild needs to start showing results. But it’s a lot easier for Chaim to tell the media and the fans it’s about the draft pick than to say it’s about the money.
 

Danny_Darwin

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JBJ seems to actually have a market. I have a feeling the Sox are going to go really cheap and get Almora Jr for a late game defensive replacement, use the savings in pitching, and roll.

"Free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. is drawing interest from the Phillies, Cubs, and Blue Jays, among other teams" - Morosi

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1338854757226655744
I said this in the Hot Stove thread already, but the Phillies seem like an obvious fit, especially now that DD is in charge. The other cheap option for anyone who misses out I guess is Jake Marisnick, not really a full-timer, but you could use him for defense. He was on the notorious 2017 Astros, though.