Redsox Top 10 prospects, midseason edition.

[Cesar Crespo]

We are fastly approaching the half way point of the minor league season, so I'm curious to see who people have moving up and moving down. I am not including guys drafted this year.


1. Moncada: Considered by some to be the number 1 prospect in all of baseball, he hasn't done anything this season to disappoint. He has improved across the board and was just recently promoted to Portland where he should be challenged. Moncada has improved his walk rate and hit for more power. While he has struck out more, it was a modest increase and shouldn't be a huge concern moving forward.

2. Benintendi: Another elite prospect, Benintendi was fast tracked to Portland after toying around with Salem pitchers. He struggled to adapt for awhile, but appears to have adjusted lately. In his last 9 games, he is 13/36 with 3 2b, 3 HR, 3bb/5k. .361/.410/.694.

3. Anderson Espinoza: Holding his own in Greenville at just 18 years of age, Espinoza has 57k/21bb in 57.2 ip this year. He has had a few duds but has also shown off his potential with a few masterpieces as well. He and Raudes are probably on strict IP limits so it may not be too much longer until they are both shut down or move to the bullpen. Ace stuff.

4. Devers: Devers has struggled mightily this year despite the glowing prospect reports. While he is hitting only .233/.300/.355, there are some encouraging signs. He has nearly doubled his walk rate since last year and most of his misfortunes seem to be bad BABIP luck. Still, at some point you'd like to see him start hitting and hitting for power. A full season of this will diminish his stock slightly.
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5. Kopech: Kopech just recently returned to action, having pitched a few days ago. He's already started to develop a reputation as a headcase but it's clear the talent is there and no other players have really pressed the issue to bump him from my top 5.

6. Chavis: He missed some time due to injury but it looks as if he hasn't missed a step. While it's alarming he had to repeat the league, Chavis is still only 20 and has made strides this year and cut his strikeout rate from 31% to 13%. As a result, he has been making much better and harder contact. If this improvement is sustainable (he has 105 PA and k rates stabilize early on), he could find himself on some top 50 lists pretty easily.
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7. Sam Travis: An injury ended Sam Travis's season early but he was putting up another Sam Travis type performance. The injury couldn't have happened at a worse time as Travis could have potentially helped the big league club this year with Hanley scuffing of late. While he will never hit for much power, Travis should hit and walk enough to be a serviceable 1b.

8. Brian Johnson: Hasn't been the same pitcher since returning from injury and was never really considered more than a 4 or 5 type. He's looking more like Anthony Ranuado 2.0 by the day. I'm hesitant even putting him in my top 10 but the other choices have their flaws too.

9. Luis Alejandro Basabe: Helium, but I'm a believer. After struggling with injuries his first couple years, Alejandro is finally healthy and has been having a monstrous year for a 19 year old in Greenville. I probably have him 10 spots higher than anyone else but I think guys with his plate approach struggle to put up results against inferior pitching because they never see an actual strike to swing at/drive. His numbers bear that in mind, as his look% as decreased as he's moved up in levels. Plus, the people you could potentially place ahead of him don't really have much of a ceiling. At the time he signed, he and his brother were both considered legit prospects, with Alexander having more power and speed but Alejandro with the better bat control. While it looks like that is still the case, Alejandro has closed the power gap considerably and is quite fast himself.

10. Josh Ockimey: Another guy I probably have 5-10 spots higher than anyone else. I just think a lot of the Redsox prospects that publications have in the 8-20 range are awfully uninspiring. Devin Marrero? Pat Light? No thanks. A 5th round draft pick in 2014, Ockimey was sent to the gulf coast where he struggled to the tune of a .524 OPS in 130 PA. In 2015, he was assigned to Lowell and while he struck out a staggering 78 times in 229 PA, he fared much better overall and hit for significantly more power. This resulted in his ISO going from .044 in 2014 to .156 in 2015. This year, Josh has raised his ISO from .156 to .234, while his k% is down from 34% to 23% and his bb% is up from 11% to 20%. He also started wearing contacts in 2016 and credits some of his success to that, although given he is only 20 years old, a lot of it is probably natural growth.


11. Travis Lakins
12. Marco Hernandez
13. Luis Alexander Basabe
14. Mauricio Dubon
15. Trey Ball
16. Nick Longhi
17. Pat Light
18. Deven Marrero
19. Roniel Raudes
20. Aaron Wilkerson

 

[Rice4HOF]

We are fastly approaching the half way point of the minor league season, so I'm curious to see who people have moving up and moving down. I am not including guys drafted this year.
........
9. Luis Alejandro Basabe: Helium, but I'm a believer. After struggling with injuries his first couple years, Alejandro is finally healthy and has been having a monstrous year for a 19 year old in Greenville. I probably have him 10 spots higher than anyone else but I think guys with his plate approach struggle to put up results against inferior pitching because they never see an actual strike to swing at/drive. His numbers bear that in mind, as his look% as decreased as he's moved up in levels. Plus, the people you could potentially place ahead of him don't really have much of a ceiling. At the time he signed, he and his brother were both considered legit prospects, with Alexander having more power and speed but Alejandro with the better bat control. While it looks like that is still the case, Alejandro has closed the power gap considerably and is quite fast himself.
...


13. Luis Alexander Basabe

.

Are these guys brothers?

 

[smastroyin]

They are twins

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

Luis Alejandro Basabe and Luis Alexander Basabe are in fact twins, with essentially the same name.

 

[Drek717]

Solid list overall, though I think Marco Hernandez is getting very under-rated (not just in your list) as a guy who has proven he can play multiple positions at the ML level and has, in a limited sample, hit in the big leagues as well. He's taken a big jump forward offensively in the last few years but it's gone on too long to be a mirage. As such he's a pretty safe bet to be a Brock Holt type, and that has real value. More value than the potential upside of a Brian Johnson (due to the injury, prior to that Johnson was the pitching equivalent of this same value) or Ockimey/Basabe either of whom could disappear for good with the next move up.

I'd also personally put more faith in it all coming together for Trey Ball than Travis Lakins, but that's a matter of personal choice.

I'll be interested to see how quickly Christopher Acosta moves once he gets a mL assignment, and where Groome starts when/if he signs. The former could quickly make his way up into top 20 lists, the later could be in the top 10 out of the gate and make a run at the top 5 if he has a good first showing this summer at an age advanced level.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Re: Basabe Twins: You can tell the difference because one of them has a .394 BABIP.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Re Groome: I would assume he breaks in at #5 or #6, depending on what Kopech does in the short term. Groome is very highly valued as a prospect.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Re: Basabe Twins: You can tell the difference because one of them has a .394 BABIP.

One (Alex) has a 9% bb- 29% K rate and the other (Alejandro) has a 13% bb - 20% k rate. Up until this year though, Alejandro showed no power. If he's closer to a .150 ISO player than a .050 one, he should be good even as his BABIP regresses. Either way, he is only 19 and is slashing .313/.414/.467 in Greenville. That is absurd and I'm amazed more people aren't excited by it.

Also, Acosta is ranked 18th on Soxprospects and I think after the top 7, peoples' lists would vary greatly.

 

[simplicio]

Is Owens no longer a prospect, no longer top 20 or just forgotten?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Is Owens no longer a prospect, no longer top 20 or just forgotten?

He graduated.

 

[Sprowl]

Deven Marrero seems to have washed out pretty badly -- he can't even make it onto the Pawtucket shuttle. Hernandez has show that he might hit, while Marrero apparently never will.

 

[Rice4HOF]

Thank you all for enlightening me on the Luis Basabe twins. So... Alejandro is the better one. Got it.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Thank you all for enlightening me on the Luis Basabe twins. So... Alejandro is the better one. Got it.

Most publications disagree with me and think Alexander is the better one. Those publications were before the season started though.

 

[soxfan121]

I am not including guys drafted this year.

It is so nice to have a good enough system that we no longer need 100+ post threads arguing about the above.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It is so nice to have a good enough system that we no longer need 100+ post threads arguing about the above.

It's actually an interesting question to ponder. If they signed everyone, how many would crack the top 20? 2? Maybe 3? Groome would, certainly, and Quintana probably would as well. After that, I'm not sure. That's probably more to do with the fact that the Sox do have a fairly deep system, even if the drop off from the top is pretty steep. Lot's of guys you can see making the majors at some point, even if only the big names have a real chance at being more than role players/bench guys.

 

[ZMart100]

Pimentel would probably make my top 20, probably 16-18. I think he's got a good chance to contribute to the MLB team. I also probably would put Aybar above Raudes and Wilkerson.

 

[Drek717]

Thank you all for enlightening me on the Luis Basabe twins. So... Alejandro is the better one. Got it.

Not exactly. This is not a Xander/Jair Bogaerts situation where one is clearly the blue chipper while the other is mL fodder.

Alexander has been considered the better prospect for their early careers as he's shown surprising power, plus speed on the bases, has plus potential as a CF defender, and a plus arm. His hit tool is the big concern, largely due to being a real free swinger and having pitch recognition problems. The view has been that since the Basabe brothers didn't start playing baseball until their mid teens that those problems could be coached out and that Alexander presents real 5 tool prospect potential.

Alejandro on the other hand was considered defensively fringey for shortstop, very little apparent power, and less feel for running the bases. He had a more mature hit tool, but no one thought it was by a substantial enough margin to come close to Alexander's upside.

The big change this year is that at least early on it appears that Alejandro has made a far more rapid advancement in his plate discipline and pitch recognition than his brother, leading to a K% of 19.7 versus his brother's 29.5 and a BB% of 12.8 to his brother's 9.2, coupled with a respectable ISO of .154. Alexander still shows more power with an ISO of .175. Alexander is also 9 for 9 on SB attempts while Alejandro is 13 for 19.

If Alexander had made the hit tool improvements that Alejandro has shown we'd be talking about him as a rising star. We still might see that happen, FYI, as Alexander's season is really a tale of prolonged streaks. In April he put up a nice slash of .259/.286/.457. In May it was a horrid .115/.236/.262. So far in June his line is an impressive .283/.367/.453. If April and June are the real talent levels and May was an aberration we're talking about a 4 tool kid beginning to develop tool #5 and being just a couple steps behind the Manuel Margot timetable.

Alejandro meanwhile has come out of nowhere to put on a pretty legitimate Mookie Betts circa 2013 impression at about a full year younger, albeit with a BABIP about .070 points higher. He trails Betts' impressive ISO, BB%, and K% numbers as well, but he's also hit better in each successive month so far.

They're both legitimate prospects at this point. They're both currently look like top 20 guys in the #8 to #15 range with the debate focused on who lands higher, a debate we'll hopefully continue to have as they each move up through the farm and ranking boards.

 

[chrisfont9]

Re Groome: I would assume he breaks in at #5 or #6, depending on what Kopech does in the short term. Groome is very highly valued as a prospect.

I guess this raises a question, what exactly are you rating? Since Groome would come in as a high schooler his projection is incredibly imprecise until he starts playing. But if you're talking pure talent, in the opinions of scouts, then sure.

And by you, I don't mean you Merkle, but the people who do ratings in general, including Bosox79

 

[mauf]

I guess this raises a question, what exactly are you rating? Since Groome would come in as a high schooler his projection is incredibly imprecise until he starts playing. But if you're talking pure talent, in the opinions of scouts, then sure.

And by you, I don't mean you Merkle, but the people who do ratings in general, including Bosox79

Once you get past Moncada and Benintendi, there are lots of guys on that list who are very young, and not yet ready for the high minors. I think Groome fits in comfortably with that group -- a bit more raw, but with a bit more upside too.

 

[Plympton91]

I don't have time to rate everybodybut amid the gloominess of the past week plus at the major league level, I went looking for silver linings in the minors. The promise of the top 4 prospects and the greatness of the major league hitters is well documented and great for dreaming. But there has been talk of the system being top-heavy, and I think I'd push back on that a little based on 4 breakouts who weren't even on the radar, and a potential 5th and 6th brewing in Pawtucket and Lowell.

Josh Ockimey: nobody had any right to expect him to be this good. Breaks from somebody worth keeping an eye on into the top10

Henry Ramos: the always talented but oft injured enigma looks to be thriving in AAA. While it seems he's been around forever, still highly age appropriate for the level.

Mauricio Dubon: made the jump to AA right behindMoncada on the heels of his All Star half season in High A. If you'd told me he'd have a good enough season at Salem to warrant promotion to AA for 2017, I'd have been pleased and a little surprised. Always den as a plus SS defender, the bat blossoms. He's certainly also a top 10 prospect at this point.

Rondel Rhodes: outperforming the more highly touted and also successful Anderson Espinosa. Would have been happy with Rhodes's year even if their performances had been reversed to midsession. Also vaults at least into the top 15.

Honorable mention 1 Aaron Wilkerson: it is time to call him up. He's done nothing but get people out and his K rate suggests it is not all a fluke.

Honorable Mention 2: Taylor Hill: late round over slot northern high school sleeper from 2014 having a great start at Lowell at age 20.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Rondel Rhodes: outperforming the more highly touted and also successful Anderson Espinosa.

Are you talking about Roniel Raudes?

 

[Plympton91]

Are you talking about Roniel Raudes?

Yeah, the pitcher in Greenville,

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Any thoughts on Tate Matheny? Sox Prospects has him at #34, but he's having a solid season at Greenville - .313/.355/.455. K rate a bit high (21.5), walk rate a bit low (6.1), and BABIP high (.395), but with a solid contact profile (25% LD, 32% FB, 40% GB, 2% POP).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Tate is also a bit old for the league and had a terrible 2015. His strike out rate concerns me given the level of competition. His 2016 has also been pretty bad, all his numbers come from like a 7-8 game stretch where he went Barry Bonds on the league.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Tate is also a bit old for the league and had a terrible 2015. His strike out rate concerns me given the level of competition. His 2016 has also been pretty bad, all his numbers come from like a 7-8 game stretch where he went Barry Bonds on the league.

Thanks for the feedback. I'm not disputing your assessment, but I will add some clarifications.
Yes, his 2015 was terrible - a .451 OPS at Lowell in 52 games.
His MILB track seems about right for his age - he's 22, was drafted out of college last year and played SS ball. That's pretty typical - certainly not advanced like, say, Benintendi.
For 2016 he's had a .673 OPS in April (10 games), .722 in May (25 G) and 1.027 in June (19 G). He had a 7-game stretch in May with a 1.267 OPS, bringing his season total from .693 to .904. Then he slumped for the rest of May, his OPS bottoming out at .688 after an 0-5 on June 1. But those June numbers were pretty steady throughout the month - only four 0-fers scattered through his 19 games. He's a right-handed batter with a strong platoon split - .765 in 192 PA vs. righties, 1.072 in 32 PA vs. lefties.
The strikeouts are absolutely concerning. Even in his strong June, he struck out 20 times in 71 ABs (with 7 BBs).

I'd guess that his chances to move up the prospects list hinge on improving the strikeout and walk rates while keeping the contact profile as is.