RedSox have been in serious trade talks with multiple teams about OF Andrew Benintendi

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Dewey'sCannon

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All I can say is that if they are trading Beni they better get a mid-rotation SP back (current or MLB-ready prospect). Otherwise I don't see the point of doing this.
 

jon abbey

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It's bad timing to move him also because there are so many FA LFs out there still. Schwarber signed, but Ozuna, Brantley, Rosario, Joc Pederson are all still out there.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Is Beni more of interest to teams because of a trade than a straight FA signing due to the major financial losses for teams last season?

If he is traded, do they bring JBJ back into the fold? Is that possibly the foot waiting to drop?
 

johnlos

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The "selling low" trope should end. Other GMs either thinks he sucks, or thinks he'll rebound to being good and will make their offer accordingly.
If he had a really good year, every GM would either think he'll regress or that he's actually good and will make their offer accordingly.
The number of gms (including bloom) in each camp doesn't change much either way. It's not like gms just look at the back of a baseball card to make a deal. (Except maybe Bowden).
This all seems right. And I think it's a shallow market for OFs so this might actually be the best time to sell on perceived value from 2016-2018. All it takes is one GM that has some analytics guys telling him he's undervalued or fits in their ballpark or whatever...
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I am looking forward to the way one of these journalists couches their leaks when the executive is a woman.
Is Beni more of interest to teams because of a trade than a straight FA signing due to the major financial losses for teams last season?

If he is traded, do they bring JBJ back into the fold? Is that possibly the foot waiting to drop?
Foot drop would probably end his career.
 

beautokyo

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I wouldn't mind seeing him go to Houston as long as part of the deal is the #2pick that we would lose in signing Springer which I have a funny (I'm not laughing) about. Since Houston is talking according to reports.....I've read/heard Springer wants a lot of cash....maybe he has this dream of calling Boston home.
 

rodderick

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If Moniak is the type of piece coming back in these deals, I'd rather bet on Benny to be somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 and rolling with him.

Moniak has been overmatched everywhere in the minors. Not even one great outlier year to rationalize.

The only urgency to move Benny is if the team really 100% believe he is cooked, but if there's some hope he regains his 2017/2018 form, they should hang on to him unless Bloom is absolutely blown away by the pieces coming back.
The strange thing with Benintendi is he just seemingly became a different (and worse) player basically overnight in August 2018 and never recovered. The strikeouts went through the roof and he seems lost against anything offspeed. At this point I have to believe they've tried different things to try and "fix" him and they haven't worked out. I don't think he's necessarily cooked and I agree that Moniak is waaaay too slim a return for a guy young and toolsy enough to figure things out, but I think I'd trade him for something less than a "blow you away" kind of package.
 

pdub

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If I recall correctly, Ozuna is only passable defensively? Personally, I'd rather keep Beni - I think he can still figure it out.
 

amRadio

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I agree. Ozuna is up and down. In the 4 years prior to COVID he averaged a 119 OPS+ over nearly 2500 PA's. Individual season marks of 110, 149, 106 and 109 in that span. He was obviously incredible in 1/3 of a season last year. I think it's fair to throw out last year for both players and to assess Benintendi as essentially a slightly above average player overall. He averaged a 108 OPS+ in the three full seasons he had prior to the shortened year and in my opinion is underrated defensively. Both players stand a solid chance to post a sub-110 OPS+ in any given season going forward. Ozuna will likely be overpaid also in my opinion, but I don't have anything to back that hunch with.

E: clarity.
 

allmanbro

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I agree. Ozuna is up and down. In the 4 years prior to COVID he averaged a 119 OPS+ over nearly 2500 PA's. Individual season marks of 110, 149, 106 and 109 in that span. He was obviously incredible in 1/3 of a season last year. I think it's fair to throw out last year for both players and to assess Benintendi as essentially a slightly above average player overall. He averaged a 108 OPS+ in the three full seasons he had prior to the shortened year and in my opinion is underrated defensively. Both players stand a solid chance to post a sub-110 OPS+ in any given season going forward. Ozuna will likely be overpaid also in my opinion, but I don't have anything to back that hunch with.

E: clarity.
I think it's more likely we see some kind of platoon with Renfroe in LF than Ozuna. Renfroe can be so good against lefties that it probably wouldn't be hard to get a platoon more productive than three of those four Ozuna seasons for 1/3 of the price. That also just seems to be how things have worked in TB.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I think it's more likely we see some kind of platoon with Renfroe in LF than Ozuna. Renfroe can be so good against lefties that it probably wouldn't be hard to get a platoon more productive than three of those four Ozuna seasons for 1/3 of the price. That also just seems to be how things have worked in TB.
Agreed. It doesn’t make sense to try to adopt Tampa’s cost-effective platoon system to take advantage of flawed players’ strengths and avoid their weaknesses if the guys you intend to platoon are going to make $15-20M/year (Ozuna).
 

johnnywayback

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I think Michael Brantley would be my first choice for LF. Joc Pederson would also be an interesting option for a platoon with Renfroe, but looking at his spray charts, I worry he'll hit a lot of fly balls to the triangle.
 

allmanbro

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I think Michael Brantley would be my first choice for LF. Joc Pederson would also be an interesting option for a platoon with Renfroe, but looking at his spray charts, I worry he'll hit a lot of fly balls to the triangle.
Pederson has a career 128 wRC+ against righties, paired with Renfroe's 137 wRC+ and that could be pretty monster production. Assume that combines to a 130 wRC+ (exactly Xander's number last year). That would have been 5th in MLB for team LF wRC+. Both players were pretty bad last year, though, so there's no guarantee they perform at career levels. Both will have basically just turned 29, so it seems worth a shot. It's just the sort of risky, high-upside move they should be doing, IMO.

Again, all this assumes a Benintendi trade that doesn't return a ML LF.


Edit: I feel compelled to add, given the post I am responding to, that Brantley has a career 159 wRC+ against righties! He's 5 years older and will be a lot more expensive though. In any case, there are options.
 
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johnnywayback

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nvalvo

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So let's say the deal is Benintendi straight up for one of those three pitchers: Rogers/Garrett/Neidert. I think Rogers might be a reach because of pedigree, but a lot depends on how people are valuing Benintendi; Rogers is also the most likely to be ready to just plug into the rotation opening day, while Garrett/Neidert could probably use a dozen AAA starts first. If we're getting Rogers, we're probably sending money with Benintendi.

Then we have ~$37m under the cap, and the following holes:

CF ?
LF platoon partner for Renfroe
SP3, unless the pitcher we acquire goes into the rotation immediately.
We could probably use another good reliever.

Just thinking out loud here. I think my plays would be:
  • Sign George Springer for CF. Call it 5/$120, $24m AAV.
    • If you successfully signed Springer, sign Josh Reddick or another low-cost LH OF (1/$2m) to play LF against RHP, platooning with Renfroe.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers from MIA).
    • Give Christian Arroyo the starting 2B job.
      • 24+2+10 = $36, brings us very close to the cap.
      • Verdugo RF L, Springer CF R, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Reddick LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, Arroyo 2B R
  • OR sign JBJ to play CF. Call it 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Splurge on Joc Pederson for 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers).
    • Give Christian Arroyo the starting 2B job.
      • $30m gives us space to pick up another FA reliever or just keep some headroom.
      • Verdugo RF L, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Pederson LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, JBJ CF L, Arroyo 2B R
  • OR sign Albert Almora or Michael A. Taylor to play CF. Call it 1/$4, $4m AAV.
    • Splurge on Joc Pederson for 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers).
    • Sign Kiké Hernandez for 2/$12m, $6m AAV to play a lot of 2B and OF.
      • $30m gives us space to pick up another FA reliever or just keep some headroom.
      • Verdugo RF L, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Pederson LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, Hernandez 2B R, Almora/Taylor CF L
All of these scenarios spend close to the cap in 2021, and I think it's a 89 to 93 win wildcard contender.

I predict we'll bust over the cap again in 2022 — likely by signing one of the numerous FA infielders to a monster deal (Seager? Story? Bryant? Correa? Baez? Arenado? Lindor? — surely some of these guys will sign extensions) — but then regain some budget room in the 2023 off-season as JDM, David Price, Eovaldi (and Quintana?, JBJ?, Pederson?) come off our tab, and our roster is largely replenished from the upper levels of the farm system.
 

jon abbey

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I predict we'll bust over the cap again in 2022 — likely by signing one of the numerous FA infielders to a monster deal (Seager? Story? Bryant? Correa? Baez? Arenado? Lindor? — surely some of these guys will sign extensions)
If that happened, Devers goes to 1B? Bogaerts maybe to 3B?
 

vegassoxfan

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The Dodgers are loaded to be allowed to let Hernandez get away. He is a good ballplayer and would be a really good addition to the 2021 Red Sox
 

allmanbro

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So let's say the deal is Benintendi straight up for one of those three pitchers: Rogers/Garrett/Neidert. I think Rogers might be a reach because of pedigree, but a lot depends on how people are valuing Benintendi; Rogers is also the most likely to be ready to just plug into the rotation opening day, while Garrett/Neidert could probably use a dozen AAA starts first. If we're getting Rogers, we're probably sending money with Benintendi.

Then we have ~$37m under the cap, and the following holes:

CF ?
LF platoon partner for Renfroe
SP3, unless the pitcher we acquire goes into the rotation immediately.
We could probably use another good reliever.

Just thinking out loud here. I think my plays would be:
  • Sign George Springerfor CF. Call it 5/$120, $24m AAV.
    • If you successfully signed Springer, sign Josh Reddick or another low-cost LH OF (1/$2m) to play LF against RHP, platooning with Renfroe.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers from MIA).
    • Give Christian Arroyothe starting 2B job.
      • 24+2+10 = $36, brings us very close to the cap.
      • Verdugo RF L, Springer CF R, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Reddick LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, Arroyo 2B R
  • OR sign JBJto play CF. Call it 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Splurge on Joc Pederson for 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers).
    • Give Christian Arroyothe starting 2B job.
      • $30m gives us space to pick up another FA reliever or just keep some headroom.
      • Verdugo RF L, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Pederson LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, JBJ CF L, Arroyo 2B R
  • OR sign Albert Almora or Michael A. Taylorto play CF. Call it 1/$4, $4m AAV.
    • Splurge on Joc Pederson for 2/$20, $10m AAV.
    • Sign José Quintana 2/$20m, $10m AAV (unless we acquired Rogers).
    • Sign Kiké Hernandezfor 2/$12m, $6m AAV to play a lot of 2B and OF.
      • $30m gives us space to pick up another FA reliever or just keep some headroom.
      • Verdugo RF L, Bogaerts SS R, Devers 3B L, JDM DH R, Dalbec 1B R, Renfroe/Pederson LF Platoon, Vazquez C R, Hernandez 2B R, Almora/Taylor CF L
All of these scenarios spend close to the cap in 2021, and I think it's a 89 to 93 win wildcard contender.

I predict we'll bust over the cap again in 2022 — likely by signing one of the numerous FA infielders to a monster deal (Seager? Story? Bryant? Correa? Baez? Arenado? Lindor? — surely some of these guys will sign extensions) — but then regain some budget room in the 2023 off-season as JDM, David Price, Eovaldi (and Quintana?, JBJ?, Pederson?) come off our tab, and our roster is largely replenished from the upper levels of the farm system.
Very nice to see options all laid out like that. One thought that might tell for leaving a bit of cap room to maneuver: if the kind of "take on an expensive contract in order to get some young talent with it" trade that many of us have expected is not possible in the offseason, is it possible it will be an option at the trading deadline? Teams might be playing it a bit cautious given uncertainty at the moment, but, for example, Arizona or Miami or Minnesota or whoever may want to retool a little if things are not going well come July. I assume Bloom can take the temperature on teams as he talks to them now and plan accordingly.
 

nvalvo

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If that happened, Devers goes to 1B? Bogaerts maybe to 3B?
I think it makes sense to be in on the infielders just because there is such a bumper crop of relatively young impact players, many of whom seem likely to actually reach FA. So spending the JDM/Price windfall a year early makes sense, especially because it corresponds with the likely opening of our next competitive window.

In that scenario, we want to staff the four infield positions, LF and DH out of the following personnel: Devers/Bogaerts and whichever of Downs/Dalbec/Casas pan out.

It's quite possible that the optimal layout doesn't have Bogaerts at SS or Devers at 3B, but it would depend who you signed. If you sign, say, Corey Seager, maybe you shift Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to DH. Or maybe Bogaerts goes to LF or 2B. Maybe Downs hasn't really panned out, and you need another middle infielder. So you could imagine all sorts of things. A lot depends on whether Devers signs an extension, too.

Very nice to see options all laid out like that. One thought that might tell for leaving a bit of cap room to maneuver: if the kind of "take on an expensive contract in order to get some young talent with it" trade that many of us have expected is not possible in the offseason, is it possible it will be an option at the trading deadline? Teams might be playing it a bit cautious given uncertainty at the moment, but, for example, Arizona or Miami or Minnesota or whoever may want to retool a little if things are not going well come July. I assume Bloom can take the temperature on teams as he talks to them now and plan accordingly.
This is a really good point. I guess it depends on how eager the FO and ownership are to semi-contend in 2021. If you're just aiming to be presentable in 2021 with 2022-25 the real focus, then you might do something like sign a cheap glove-first option like Almora in CF, sign Rich Hill as a cheaper, less-reliable option for SP3, and Rosario as a mid-priced platoon LF.

That would be more of an 82-85 win team, but they could probably $20+ m in cap room available for midseason opportunism.
 
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chawson

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A few reacts to @nvalvo's solid post on potential paths:

- I'm not sure the Marlins have the best package for Benintendi, but I like Rogers. Either way, taking back Corey Dickerson (1/$8.7M) to play left and platoon with Renfroe would be beneficial for both teams. Dickerson mashed RHP in 2019 (.942 OPS) and seems likely to rebound from a bad 2020 (haven't found reporting that he was definitively among the dozens of Marlins who had COVID).

- I'm less optimistic about Quintana's Fenway chances than you are [edit: and it’s moot now that he’s signed with the Angels] and may prefer Garrett Richards at (2/$16M). I’d go with the higher upside Danny Santana in CF over Almora, and then try to grab Hernandez or Profar for 2B/CF.

- I wonder if it's coincidence or strategy that our luxury tax "reset" year is staggered ahead of the Yankees'. We dipped under the threshold last year and they're doing it now, so this seems like the year to add salary while they're restricted, relatively speaking. Especially short-term salary that’s off the books when we reset again in two years. Not my money and all that, but it’s time to spend.
 
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Manramsclan

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A few reacts to @nvalvo's solid post on potential paths:

- I wonder if it's coincidence or strategy that our luxury tax "reset" year is staggered ahead of the Yankees'. We dipped under the threshold last year and they're doing it now, so this seems like the year to add salary while they're restricted, relatively speaking. Especially short-term salary that’s off the books when we reset again in two years. Not my money and all that, but it’s time to spend.
Conversely, keeping the powder dry for the 2022 Free Agent class when Pedroia's salary is also off the books and we have even more to spend might be a great idea. If the current makeup of the class holds there is a lot of high impact talent.

Notable free agents for 2021-22
Catcher: Salvador Perez, Travis d'Arnaud, Christian Vazquez (club option), Buster Posey (club option)
First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt
Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story
Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option)
Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)
Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option)
Relievers: Kenley Jansen, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Ottavino
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Is the rival executive sufficiently "shocked" right about now?

I tend to agree with this approach, the math just doesn't add up. Beni is going to command a lot more salary on the FA market than his production will merit, if he shows no or negative development as happended between 2018 and 2019. In addition you're looking at an expensive left side of the infield. (At the very least, Raffy will be approaching X's cost in two years with the arbitration increases if the team decides not to try and extend him.) And no matter conventional starters, bullpen guys, etc. there need to be a lot of quality arms brought in, you're not finding all these guys on the cheap. If you find Verdugo continues to enjoy Boston, you'll want flexibility to extend him well before FA at a higher but fair market salary.

tl;dr After the last few years of having to watch it burn, it seems like the key words for this year's roster construction are flexibility and agility. Leave all doors ajar.
 

chawson

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Conversely, keeping the powder dry for the 2022 Free Agent class when Pedroia's salary is also off the books and we have even more to spend might be a great idea. If the current makeup of the class holds there is a lot of high impact talent.

Notable free agents for 2021-22
Catcher: Salvador Perez, Travis d'Arnaud, Christian Vazquez (club option), Buster Posey (club option)
First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt
Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story
Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option)
Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)
Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option)
Relievers: Kenley Jansen, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Ottavino
Thanks - this list is helpful compiled in one cluster and I agree there are some impressive guys. But I think almost none of them are realistic targets for the Sox.

Hitters: This all depends on whether we plan to sign a shortstop, and Story is the best fit by far. (Lindor seems likely to be a Met long-term.) Correa is possible but he's a bit tainted and coming off his worst year, and I don't think he's worth rearranging the team over. Baez is too much of a free swinger to age well. Seager is excellent but he loses some of his power in Fenway, and I expect another team will value him more.

It may be the right move, but signing a shortstop would fundamentally change the direction of the team. It'd push Bogaerts to 2B or 3B through at least '22 and Devers to 3B/DH through at least '23. In any case, let's assume 3B will be occupied, which strikes guys like Bryant and Arenado (no thanks to Kyle Seager at 35) off the list. Picking up Vazquez's 2022 option ($7M) is a no-brainer if he's not traded before then (I think Plawecki could be the full-time backstop). I like d'Arnaud but he'll be 33 and hasn't been a full-time catcher since 2014. Perez and Posey could be 1-year stopgaps but they're not long-term options. It doesn't make sense to sign Freeman, Rizzo and Belt when Casas is expected to be ready in 2022. I love José Ramírez but he'll have his options picked up through 2023. Blackmon and McCutchen will be too old to play the outfield. Conforto or Pham (who will be 34) could be fits in left but Rosario, Schwarber and Dickerson aren't anything special, and could probably be ours today if Bloom wanted them. Castellanos will need a strong year to opts out of 2/$32M after his bad 2020, and he's also a DH.

Pitchers: I'm all for extending E-Rod. Syndergaard is a good target but I think this Mets ownership will keep him if he comes back effective. Kershaw will be 34 and is in decline, and will likely stay a Dodger. Cueto will be 36 and looks done. Scherzer and Greinke will be 38 and Verlander 39. Lance Lynn is fine but I wouldn't want to give him a multi-year deal at 35. McCullers and Martinez can't stay healthy. Bundy maybe, but he's already working with a 90 mph fastball at 28. Those relievers might still be good but they're nothing to build a team around.

TL;DR: I don't mean to dismiss the 'keeping the powder dry for '22' approach, but there are too few impact FA next winter, and it seems weird for us to count on being able to sign them (and they'd cost draft picks). Maybe the plan is to chase Trevor Story at all costs, make him the face of the franchise and let the other pieces fall in around him? I think it's a better path to take on short-term salary today through trades.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Thanks - this list is helpful compiled in one cluster and I agree there are some impressive guys. But I think almost none of them are realistic targets for the Sox.

Hitters: This all depends on whether we plan to sign a shortstop, and Story is the best fit by far. (Lindor seems likely to be a Met long-term.) Correa is possible but he's a bit tainted and coming off his worst year, and I don't think he's worth rearranging the team over. Baez is too much of a free swinger to age well. Seager is excellent but he loses some of his power in Fenway, and I expect another team will value him more.

It may be the right move, but signing a shortstop would fundamentally change the direction of the team. It'd push Bogaerts to 2B or 3B through at least '22 and Devers to 3B/DH through at least '23. In any case, let's assume 3B will be occupied, which strikes guys like Bryant and Arenado (no thanks to Kyle Seager at 35) off the list. Picking up Vazquez's 2022 option ($7M) is a no-brainer if he's not traded before then (I think Plawecki could be the full-time backstop). I like d'Arnaud but he'll be 33 and hasn't been a full-time catcher since 2014. Perez and Posey could be 1-year stopgaps but they're not long-term options. It doesn't make sense to sign Freeman, Rizzo and Belt when Casas is expected to be ready in 2022. I love José Ramírez but he'll have his options picked up through 2023. Blackmon and McCutchen will be too old to play the outfield. Conforto or Pham (who will be 34) could be fits in left but Rosario, Schwarber and Dickerson aren't anything special, and could probably be ours today if Bloom wanted them. Castellanos will need a strong year to opts out of 2/$32M after his bad 2020, and he's also a DH.

Pitchers: I'm all for extending E-Rod. Syndergaard is a good target but I think this Mets ownership will keep him if he comes back effective. Kershaw will be 34 and is in decline, and will likely stay a Dodger. Cueto will be 36 and looks done. Scherzer and Greinke will be 38 and Verlander 39. Lance Lynn is fine but I wouldn't want to give him a multi-year deal at 35. McCullers and Martinez can't stay healthy. Bundy maybe, but he's already working with a 90 mph fastball at 28. Those relievers might still be good but they're nothing to build a team around.

TL;DR: I don't mean to dismiss the 'keeping the powder dry for '22' approach, but there are too few impact FA next winter, and it seems weird for us to count on being able to sign them (and they'd cost draft picks). Maybe the plan is to chase Trevor Story at all costs, make him the face of the franchise and let the other pieces fall in around him? I think it's a better path to take on short-term salary today through trades.
I mostly agree but I think there’s more of a chance that they go after Bryant than you’re giving them credit for, though likely not as a 3B. He’s played a season’s worth of games in the outfield and could almost certainly handle LF full-time. This assumes a good year in 2021, of course.
 

nighthob

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Thanks - this list is helpful compiled in one cluster and I agree there are some impressive guys. But I think almost none of them are realistic targets for the Sox.

TL;DR: I don't mean to dismiss the 'keeping the powder dry for '22' approach, but there are too few impact FA next winter, and it seems weird for us to count on being able to sign them (and they'd cost draft picks). Maybe the plan is to chase Trevor Story at all costs, make him the face of the franchise and let the other pieces fall in around him? I think it's a better path to take on short-term salary today through trades.
If MLB is finally making the DH standard across the board (as it should have been years ago) then moving Devers to full time DH isn't the worst thing in the world. So signing Bryant as either a 3B or even LF would have some real upside for them in deepening the lineup. I would definitely prefer Story, though, and shifting X to 3B (so long as he's OK with it) with Devers moving temporarily to 1B (until Casas arrives). Downs seems like a safe bet to take over 2B some time this year.
 

chawson

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I mostly agree but I think there’s more of a chance that they go after Bryant than you’re giving them credit for, though likely not as a 3B. He’s played a season’s worth of games in the outfield and could almost certainly handle LF full-time. This assumes a good year in 2021, of course.
That's a good point. But if Bloom's considering Bryant long-term, why not get him now? Anyone who wants Bryant long-term needs to know if he can reverse the worrying trends at the plate, and I think it'd be better to see if a change-of-scenery does him good in 2021 before committing a lot of money to the idea.
 

Manramsclan

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Jul 14, 2005
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Thanks - this list is helpful compiled in one cluster and I agree there are some impressive guys. But I think almost none of them are realistic targets for the Sox.
TL;DR: I don't mean to dismiss the 'keeping the powder dry for '22' approach, but there are too few impact FA next winter, and it seems weird for us to count on being able to sign them (and they'd cost draft picks). Maybe the plan is to chase Trevor Story at all costs, make him the face of the franchise and let the other pieces fall in around him? I think it's a better path to take on short-term salary today through trades.
And thanks for going through that list. You make some good points especially in light of the many SS being improbable due to our current roster construction.
A counter to the 3B conclusion:
Getting Arenado to play third would be a huge impact on this team. Devers and he can coexist on the roster very well in my opinion. Especially if Devers never gets it together in the field and he is relegated to DH. A mix of the two at third 70/30 in Arenado's favor would keep both bats in the lineup and legs fresh. All of this, of course, doesn't mention cost but I don't think that Arenado should be dismissed out of hand. JD Martinez would play LF in this scenario.

Bryant is a similar case although I would think he would play LF at Fenway with Devers the primary option at third. Maybe there is a timeshare between LF/3B/DH with another player of lesser cost who can play LF on the road and also provide some sort of platoon advantage. This one would need a JD opt out to work but I really think JD is going to opt out after this year.

I also see that Ramirez has a favorable contract, but can we really be assured that the Indians will exercise the options? Probably they will because his contract would then be an asset to trade but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

All of this to say, Devers can't be counted on to stick at 3B forever. He is an exceptional hitter and I do think he can turn it around at third defensively. I just don't see the wisdom in passing up potential upgrades offensively and defensively if his displacement improves another position either via trade or upgrade to the offense.

Not signing Freeman or Rizzo because of Casas doesn't make sense in my opinion. Casas is 21 and has played one season of professional baseball. There are other reasons to not sign those guys, cost and roster flexibility among them but passing over on a player you like at a cost you like for a player with Casas' profile at this point seems like counting the proverbial chickens.

I edited your breakdown of the pitchers:

Pitchers: I'm all for extending E-Rod.
I mean that's really it. If Sale doesn't rebound, and E-Rod doesn't continue to make strides/replicate his 2019, one of Mata/Groome/Song* develops into a reliable major league pitcher this is all moot. The Red Sox don't have a lot in their pipeline in terms of pitching and they won't be able to buy it. All the mashers in the world will keep them mediocre at best.

*If there is some change in his status with the Navy.

At this point, it seems very likely that they punt 2021 and I wouldn't blame them if they did.
 
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