RedSox have been in serious trade talks with multiple teams about OF Andrew Benintendi

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billy ashley

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I like Benintendi a lot, but yeah, shouldn't be looked at as a solution in CF. He's a LF, not a particularly good one.

He does enough well offensively to be a good ballplayer. But yeah...if we're looking to build out the roster of young cost controlled assets, they should absolutely be dealing Benintendi. He's not the type of guy who would get a QO upon reaching free agency, and he's also not the type of player you'd want to invest a lot of money to him. He's a solid starter for a contending team on the cheap. Not a difference maker.

If we're not a contending team... he makes no sense, here.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I like Benintendi a lot, but yeah, shouldn't be looked at as a solution in CF. He's a LF, not a particularly good one.

He does enough well offensively to be a good ballplayer. But yeah...if we're looking to build out the roster of young cost controlled assets, they should absolutely be dealing Benintendi. He's not the type of guy who would get a QO upon reaching free agency, and he's also not the type of player you'd want to invest a lot of money to him. He's a solid starter for a contending team on the cheap. Not a difference maker.

If we're not a contending team... he makes no sense, here.
Agreed. He was kind of a perfect piece on the 2018 team but his age, contract status, and talent level just don't really fit on the team as currently constituted/envisioned by Bloom.
 

allmanbro

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I think the bottom line is that Benintendi is the most valuable piece the team would not really mind trading. The farm is so thin that they will be reluctant to part with top prospects (though, of course, they would in the right deal), they have absolutely no pitching to trade (the opposite), and the rest of the lineup is either too expensive to trade, are key parts of the team going foreword, or are not good. Benintendi is somewhat redundant to Verdugo, and his production is replaceable for a team with the Sox finances.

There are a lot of things the team can do to improve at the margins, but they desperately need a solid #2/3 starter to be a competitor. Benintendi plus taking on a bad contract is plausibly enough for that, so trading him is probably the team's best shot at actually making that happen (unless some team out there really loves Chavis for some reason, or makes a cost controlled ace available for Downs/Duran).


As an aside, I'd bet that's what happened with the Marlins: Bloom wanted one of their young starters, and the Marlins didn't want to give one up. I would figure they are scouring for the best SP they can get in a deal like that, but will revisit other options if they can't get one they like.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Any chance we're keeping open channels with the Springer camp behind the scenes and maybe that's why we are OK with sending out Benintendi ?

No team has been approaching Springer' agents demands of 5/150. If we can get him for closer to 5/125, why not do it? Yes we lose the 2nd round pick. But Springer is still one of the top outfielders in the game and his bat speed hasn't diminished. If I recall last year in the playoffs they mentioned he still was the 3rd best hitter in the majors against fastballs.

Just spitballing, who knows.
 

allmanbro

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Any chance we're keeping open channels with the Springer camp behind the scenes and maybe that's why we are OK with sending out Benintendi ?
It doesn't need to have anything to do with Springer, there are plenty of players available who would be lateral moves or better compared to Benintendi, at least in the short term. That's a gain if it means the pitching is substantially better. I'm sure there's a point with Springer where the Sox get interested, but I expect some other team will pay more than that.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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It doesn't need to have anything to do with Springer, there are plenty of players available who would be lateral moves or better compared to Benintendi, at least in the short term. That's a gain if it means the pitching is substantially better. I'm sure there's a point with Springer where the Sox get interested, but I expect some other team will pay more than that.
Agree with this re Springer. Although the pandemic is clearly affecting some teams’ decisions and payrolls, there seem to be enough teams willing to spend that Springer will get offers well beyond the bargain basement. Given his QO, I highly doubt Bloom will be in on him at anything close to market rate.

As for Beni, I’m puzzled like the rest of us by his career trajectory to date, but we’ve seen the skills. I suspect that we have yet to see his best seasons and am therefore ill-disposed to see him traded.
 

Kliq

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Maybe should be its own thread; but do you think the Red Sox will sign Devers to a big extension when his time comes, or do you think they'll sell him for a haul of prospects?
 

billy ashley

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I think the bottom line is that Benintendi is the most valuable piece the team would not really mind trading. The farm is so thin that they will be reluctant to part with top prospects (though, of course, they would in the right deal), they have absolutely no pitching to trade (the opposite), and the rest of the lineup is either too expensive to trade, are key parts of the team going foreword, or are not good. Benintendi is somewhat redundant to Verdugo, and his production is replaceable for a team with the Sox finances.

There are a lot of things the team can do to improve at the margins, but they desperately need a solid #2/3 starter to be a competitor. Benintendi plus taking on a bad contract is plausibly enough for that, so trading him is probably the team's best shot at actually making that happen (unless some team out there really loves Chavis for some reason, or makes a cost controlled ace available for Downs/Duran).


As an aside, I'd bet that's what happened with the Marlins: Bloom wanted one of their young starters, and the Marlins didn't want to give one up. I would figure they are scouring for the best SP they can get in a deal like that, but will revisit other options if they can't get one they like.

I think that the belief that Boston's system is thin is a little out of date. Boston has a really deep system in terms of solid prospects. The gaps that exist are that after Casas and Downs, there aren't any near MLB impact talent. They have a ton of interesting pitching prospects who profile as a 4-5, starters (Seabold, Houk, Ward, Murphey, Whitlock) that are relatively close to the majors. To your point, the trouble is those aren't exactly guys a team would target when trading an impact player.

They also have a good number of intriguing guys who could be top 50 prospects in the years ahead (Jimenez, Song, Yorke). As well as some nice complementary pieces that are close to the majors (Duran, Potts, Rossario) mixed in with intriguing guys miles away (Ramirez, Bonaci, Liu).

The system is miles ahead of where it was last season, and most these guys didn't get a chance to play / improve. The fact that Boston is probably somewhere around 15-20 in terms of systems right now is a huge success for Bloom. With the fourth overall pick in the coming draft, it should be moving up pretty quickly, as well.

I do agree with the underlining point that it doesn't make sense to write checks against the future for the team as it's currently built. Boston could be good in 21, but it'll take a lot of stuff breaking the right way. Better to continue adding depth for when we can go for a deliberate run again, (hopefully 22/23).
 

joe dokes

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As for Beni, I’m puzzled like the rest of us by his career trajectory to date, but we’ve seen the skills. I suspect that we have yet to see his best seasons and am therefore ill-disposed to see him traded.
Unless it's to a team that also sees it this way and pays accordingly.
 

billy ashley

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One added benefit of trading Benintendi.

It doesn't make sense in terms of platooning a player, but Boston is in a bind with Michael Chavis. He probably has no trade value right now, and he's probably too "good" to simply DFA. He doesn't have a long term spot in the infield. If they're not looking to compete next year, giving Chavis run in LF to see if he can approach acceptable might not be a bad idea. If they can steal a couple of free seasons out of Chavis it'll allow them to spend money elsewhere.
 

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Maybe should be its own thread; but do you think the Red Sox will sign Devers to a big extension when his time comes, or do you think they'll sell him for a haul of prospects?
Depends on the deal he's willing to sign, doesn't it? If he's willing to take a relative discount for long term security like Bogaerts did, he'll sign. If he's intent on hitting the market like Betts was, it's possible they deal him. Bit too early to know either way.
 

Kliq

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Depends on the deal he's willing to sign, doesn't it? If he's willing to take a relative discount for long term security like Bogaerts did, he'll sign. If he's intent on hitting the market like Betts was, it's possible they deal him. Bit too early to know either way.
The financials of MLB may have changed, but his ceiling to me would probably be around the Rendon deal. I don't see this version of the Red Sox paying that, but a lot of things could change.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Unless it's to a team that also sees it this way and pays accordingly.
Yeah, but that seems unlikely. AB’s 2020 was awful, and 2019 wasn’t particularly good. Hard time seeing another team pay for what he might be as opposed to what he has recently been.

He’s also not actually cheap: $6.6M. That’s over twice what we’re going to pay Renfroe. I would guess other teams are sniffing around to see whether we’re willing to sell low, and Bloom’s merely being diligent.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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As an aside, I'd bet that's what happened with the Marlins: Bloom wanted one of their young starters, and the Marlins didn't want to give one up. I would figure they are scouring for the best SP they can get in a deal like that, but will revisit other options if they can't get one they like.
This is what makes sense, that Bloom is exploring any/all avenues to upgrade SP. I don't think this necessarily indicates that he really wants to trade Beni, but it's one of the options that has to be explored as an alternative to the FA market (since there's no guarantee that they can get the guys they want there), and there are other option available for LF (both FA and internal).

I suspect we'll know more in a week or tow, after the workouts for Kluber and McHugh this week. Things should start moving on the FA SP market, so Bloom should get a better idea as to whether he can sign a couple of them or whether he needs to look to the trade market.
 

allmanbro

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One added benefit of trading Benintendi.

It doesn't make sense in terms of platooning a player, but Boston is in a bind with Michael Chavis. He probably has no trade value right now, and he's probably too "good" to simply DFA. He doesn't have a long term spot in the infield. If they're not looking to compete next year, giving Chavis run in LF to see if he can approach acceptable might not be a bad idea. If they can steal a couple of free seasons out of Chavis it'll allow them to spend money elsewhere.
A platoon of Chavis vs righties (career 93 wRC+ split) and Renfroe vs Lefties (career 137 wRC+ split) might actually not be that bad. For example, Steamer projects 102 wRC+ for Benintendi. That platoon has a lower ceiling than Beni, but might have about the same median projection. Chavis of course is the question mark - he had a 101 wRC+ against righties in 2019 and only 70 last year. It wouldn't be crazy to think he can be in 90 wRC+ range against righties next year.

That's probably not the plan, but it's a decent fallback.


Edit: Digging a little more, Steamer's projection for Renfroe alone is 97 wRC+, and his career number against righties is 87, so you do need Chavis to rebound a lot for the platoon to make sense over just starting Renfroe. I guess you could also hope there are meaningful differences between the two in splits on finer-grained pitcher profiles (pitch types, gb/fb, or whatever) to give some favorable RHP matchups to Renfroe.
 
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nvalvo

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One added benefit of trading Benintendi.

It doesn't make sense in terms of platooning a player, but Boston is in a bind with Michael Chavis. He probably has no trade value right now, and he's probably too "good" to simply DFA. He doesn't have a long term spot in the infield. If they're not looking to compete next year, giving Chavis run in LF to see if he can approach acceptable might not be a bad idea. If they can steal a couple of free seasons out of Chavis it'll allow them to spend money elsewhere.
I am not sure Michael Chavis is too good to DFA.

He strikes out 30+% of the time, but doesn't have the isolated power to make that manageable. His contact % *in the strike zone* is around 75%. He's bad at every defensive position where they've played him. He almost posted a league average OPS in his BABIP-aided 2019. (Baseball Savant has his 2019 xBA in the bottom 3% of the league.)

I would absolutely DFA him in order to give him a year in Worcester to try to rebuild any sort of value. If he gets claimed, he gets claimed, but I can't imagine he will. He's like if Jackie Bradley was a poor defender. Christian Arroyo seems more promising in all phases of the game.

I was thinking about this. Would it be possible to use a Benintendi-Polanco swap, perhaps adding a mid-tier prospect (Dalbec?), as a way to get a pre-FA starting pitcher from Pittsburgh?
 

billy ashley

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Not to hijack this thread and make it about Chavis, but I'm 100% in support of Arroyo being higher on the depth chart for infield.

Chavis might be an okay second division starter on the cheap. He has one carrying tool that says to me, we should try to see if there's something there. Trading Benintendi may allow that a bit. It shouldn't be the motivation for trading a useful and relatively cheap player, like Benintendi, but it's a nice bonus.

I think Chavis would very likely be claimed, if DFA'd (depending on when the DFA went down of course).
 

johnnywayback

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Let's play with the Trade Simulator! I'm going to assume that the return roughly matches Benintendi's trade value on that site, and that the Sox are targeting players who can help in the near-term (so no Rookie Leaguers). I'm also assuming that, with Bloom's background, he is taking a special look at pitchers who are undervalued because they're not likely starters but who could be valuable multi-inning relievers.

OAKLAND
Not really any underwater contracts -- Khris Davis is a bad fit here because of Martinez and I can't see them trading Piscotty given his family circumstances. I wonder if Chad Pinder would be a fit here, as he can play multiple positions. Oakland has a ML-ready outfield prospect in Luis Barrera and a post-hype, maybe-successful-two-inning-reliever-instead-of-starter type in James Kaprelian -- I don't know if we could get both, though. Barrera and Grant Holmes? I'm meh on the matchup here.

HOUSTON
Someone on the Sox Prospects podcast pitched a Benintendi-for-Forrest Whitley deal, which obviously I would do in a heartbeat, but I doubt the Astros would be into it. More likely, I wonder if we could get Bryan Abreu, who seems like the good version of Brusdar Graterol (either an exciting high-variance starter or a closer), and Chas McCormick.

TEXAS
Now this one could be fun. According to the simulator, Benintendi and Christian Vazquez (the Rangers need a catcher) for Joey Gallo is an almost dead-even swap. Alternatively: Gallo and Rougned Odor cancel each other out. Less exotic: Benintendi and Vazquez for Leody Taveras and Joe Palumbo. Or Benintendi and Chavis for Hans Crouse and Bubba Thompson.

PITTSBURGH
Your guess is as good as mine. I would have assumed the Sox would be in on Joe Musgrove, but that deal doesn't make a ton of sense to me, even if we take Polanco's contract -- the Pirates could get a legit prospect or two for Musgrove, and why wouldn't you just do that instead of Benintendi? I guess if we get Taillon instead of Musgrove the math works better for a deal like that. And if you're trading prospects for Benintendi, why would you give up a Cody Bolton?

Based on this extremely unscientific and gimmicky look at the stupid trade simulator, I would be into a big deal for Gallo, who can play CF, or trying to get Bryan Abreu from Houston.
 

chawson

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Let's play with the Trade Simulator! I'm going to assume that the return roughly matches Benintendi's trade value on that site, and that the Sox are targeting players who can help in the near-term (so no Rookie Leaguers). I'm also assuming that, with Bloom's background, he is taking a special look at pitchers who are undervalued because they're not likely starters but who could be valuable multi-inning relievers.

OAKLAND
Not really any underwater contracts -- Khris Davis is a bad fit here because of Martinez and I can't see them trading Piscotty given his family circumstances. I wonder if Chad Pinder would be a fit here, as he can play multiple positions. Oakland has a ML-ready outfield prospect in Luis Barrera and a post-hype, maybe-successful-two-inning-reliever-instead-of-starter type in James Kaprelian -- I don't know if we could get both, though. Barrera and Grant Holmes? I'm meh on the matchup here.

HOUSTON
Someone on the Sox Prospects podcast pitched a Benintendi-for-Forrest Whitley deal, which obviously I would do in a heartbeat, but I doubt the Astros would be into it. More likely, I wonder if we could get Bryan Abreu, who seems like the good version of Brusdar Graterol (either an exciting high-variance starter or a closer), and Chas McCormick.

TEXAS
Now this one could be fun. According to the simulator, Benintendi and Christian Vazquez (the Rangers need a catcher) for Joey Gallo is an almost dead-even swap. Alternatively: Gallo and Rougned Odor cancel each other out. Less exotic: Benintendi and Vazquez for Leody Taveras and Joe Palumbo. Or Benintendi and Chavis for Hans Crouse and Bubba Thompson.

PITTSBURGH
Your guess is as good as mine. I would have assumed the Sox would be in on Joe Musgrove, but that deal doesn't make a ton of sense to me, even if we take Polanco's contract -- the Pirates could get a legit prospect or two for Musgrove, and why wouldn't you just do that instead of Benintendi? I guess if we get Taillon instead of Musgrove the math works better for a deal like that. And if you're trading prospects for Benintendi, why would you give up a Cody Bolton?

Based on this extremely unscientific and gimmicky look at the stupid trade simulator, I would be into a big deal for Gallo, who can play CF, or trying to get Bryan Abreu from Houston.
Nice stuff here. I think Pittsburgh is the ideal spot of these, partly because its the NL, and partly because there are too many semi-expensive players who would fit well here. Polanco's the ticket in, but Musgrove and Taillon are great targets and Moran is a sly pick to play 2B, a former #6 prospect with upside in his bat.

Elsewhere, I'm not sure the DH logjam would be enough to scuttle a deal with Oakland if it's something like Khris Davis + A.J. Puk for Beni (which the Trade Sim says is a big win for Oakland). Maybe you play JDM in left for a year to see if it reignites his bat. Or just DFA Davis and take the prospect. With Texas, if Bloom has any indication that MLB is going to ban the shift, Gallo is a really smart target. He's already a monster whose power is not constrained by Fenway's deep right field, but there's only a couple years left on his contract. Not sure what else we're interested in there, though. Their pitching is terrible.
 

BaseballJones

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Not sure what to think of Gallo. Huge power obviously, but man it's a rare thing for him to actually hit the ball.
 

allmanbro

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Someone on the Sox Prospects podcast pitched a Benintendi-for-Forrest Whitley deal, which obviously I would do in a heartbeat, but I doubt the Astros would be into it. More likely, I wonder if we could get Bryan Abreu, who seems like the good version of Brusdar Graterol (either an exciting high-variance starter or a closer), and Chas McCormick.

. . .

Based on this extremely unscientific and gimmicky look at the stupid trade simulator, I would be into a big deal for Gallo, who can play CF, or trying to get Bryan Abreu from Houston.
Houston has a few young pitchers who would be interesting, Whitley and Abreu who you mention along with Josh James, Framber Valdez. and Jose Urquidy. It's also possible they see 2021 as a wash with Verlander out, and would be interested in dumping Greinke's $34M 2021 salary. Greinke + one of those younger SPs + maybe lottery ticket or a spare part (or some cash) would be one of the few imaginable returns that I can see setting the team up to compete in 2021 and also strengthening it beyond. Unlikely, but would be interesting.
 

johnnywayback

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Houston has a few young pitchers who would be interesting, Whitley and Abreu who you mention along with Josh James, Framber Valdez. and Jose Urquidy. It's also possible they see 2021 as a wash with Verlander out, and would be interested in dumping Greinke's $34M 2021 salary. Greinke + one of those younger SPs + maybe lottery ticket or a spare part (or some cash) would be one of the few imaginable returns that I can see setting the team up to compete in 2021 and also strengthening it beyond. Unlikely, but would be interesting.
Houston also needs catching help, so a bigger deal adding Vazquez and maybe getting back a couple of their young pitchers would make some sense. I doubt they'd want to trade Greinke, but Benintendi and Vazquez for Urquidy, Abreu, Josh James, and Tyler Ivey works in the simulator.
 

chawson

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My money's on the Angels as "another American League" team. A Beni for Upton and Adell or Marsh deal works pretty well. Justin Upton's bat would be a good fit here and he's playable in left field. They may have botched Adell's development and don't know what level to play him next year. Bloom could season him a bit more or treat him as an Andy Marte type and flip him elsewhere, or play Marsh in center immediately.

What the Angels really want, I think, is to throw money at Trevor Bauer. Bauer apparently posted a YouTube video last month calling the Angels the "number one fanbase."
 

BaseballJones

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Upton, last two seasons: 366 ab, .210/.301/.418/.719, 81 ops+. He's 33 1/2 years old. He's due $23m in 2021 and $28m in 2022. His dWAR the past two years: -1.4, -0.6.

So to trade a younger, much much much cheaper and better Benintendi, for an older, much much much more expensive and worse Upton, would have to include from the Angels another high quality piece. Because straight-up, that deal is a big-time loser for Boston.
 

ngruz25

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Nice stuff here. I think Pittsburgh is the ideal spot of these, partly because its the NL, and partly because there are too many semi-expensive players who would fit well here. Polanco's the ticket in, but Musgrove and Taillon are great targets and Moran is a sly pick to play 2B, a former #6 prospect with upside in his bat.
Moran is nothing more than an emergency 2B. I'd rather just play Chavis there.

Musgrove + Polanco makes the most sense for the Red Sox, and maybe the Pirates too. They'd get to shed Polanco's salary, which is probably a priority for them. However, given that they're not planning on competing any time soon, I'm guessing they'd prefer to get prospects back for Musgrove.

I don't see Taillon being in this discussion at all. He's a total question mark after yet another major surgery.
 

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My money's on the Angels as "another American League" team. A Beni for Upton and Adell or Marsh deal works pretty well. Justin Upton's bat would be a good fit here and he's playable in left field. They may have botched Adell's development and don't know what level to play him next year. Bloom could season him a bit more or treat him as an Andy Marte type and flip him elsewhere, or play Marsh in center immediately.
They probably want to get rid of Upton's contract, sure. But I seriously doubt that they would be willing to dump Adell and do it all for Benintendi.

If the Angels are willing to give up on Adell this early, I think they could find much better deals.
 

billy ashley

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Upton, last two seasons: 366 ab, .210/.301/.418/.719, 81 ops+. He's 33 1/2 years old. He's due $23m in 2021 and $28m in 2022. His dWAR the past two years: -1.4, -0.6.

So to trade a younger, much much much cheaper and better Benintendi, for an older, much much much more expensive and worse Upton, would have to include from the Angels another high quality piece. Because straight-up, that deal is a big-time loser for Boston.

I'd sign up for the Jo Adell + Upton trade in a heartbeat. That's a no brainer for Boston. Problem is that the Angels wouldn't accept it.

Do the angels have a good utility infielder? Because if so something along these lines may be work

37866
 

Rich Garces Belly

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Let's play with the Trade Simulator! I'm going to assume that the return roughly matches Benintendi's trade value on that site, and that the Sox are targeting players who can help in the near-term (so no Rookie Leaguers). I'm also assuming that, with Bloom's background, he is taking a special look at pitchers who are undervalued because they're not likely starters but who could be valuable multi-inning relievers.

OAKLAND
Not really any underwater contracts -- Khris Davis is a bad fit here because of Martinez and I can't see them trading Piscotty given his family circumstances. I wonder if Chad Pinder would be a fit here, as he can play multiple positions. Oakland has a ML-ready outfield prospect in Luis Barrera and a post-hype, maybe-successful-two-inning-reliever-instead-of-starter type in James Kaprelian -- I don't know if we could get both, though. Barrera and Grant Holmes? I'm meh on the matchup here.

HOUSTON
Someone on the Sox Prospects podcast pitched a Benintendi-for-Forrest Whitley deal, which obviously I would do in a heartbeat, but I doubt the Astros would be into it. More likely, I wonder if we could get Bryan Abreu, who seems like the good version of Brusdar Graterol (either an exciting high-variance starter or a closer), and Chas McCormick.

TEXAS
Now this one could be fun. According to the simulator, Benintendi and Christian Vazquez (the Rangers need a catcher) for Joey Gallo is an almost dead-even swap. Alternatively: Gallo and Rougned Odor cancel each other out. Less exotic: Benintendi and Vazquez for Leody Taveras and Joe Palumbo. Or Benintendi and Chavis for Hans Crouse and Bubba Thompson.

PITTSBURGH
Your guess is as good as mine. I would have assumed the Sox would be in on Joe Musgrove, but that deal doesn't make a ton of sense to me, even if we take Polanco's contract -- the Pirates could get a legit prospect or two for Musgrove, and why wouldn't you just do that instead of Benintendi? I guess if we get Taillon instead of Musgrove the math works better for a deal like that. And if you're trading prospects for Benintendi, why would you give up a Cody Bolton?

Based on this extremely unscientific and gimmicky look at the stupid trade simulator, I would be into a big deal for Gallo, who can play CF, or trying to get Bryan Abreu from Houston.
This is great, thank you for this!

However, if those are the options I’d much prefer keeping Benintendi and shoot for a comeback player of the year award than
trade him for any of those packages.

To the poster who said that we would not be selling him at his lowest value, what do you think we could have received for him after the 2018 season? No shot we would be taking on Uptons contract or anything like that.

I am unsure what led to his regression and maybe the Red Sox have a better understanding of it and that is why they are trading him away. It is just crazy to me that we would unload him aT this point, especially for those packages.
 

chawson

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Upton, last two seasons: 366 ab, .210/.301/.418/.719, 81 ops+. He's 33 1/2 years old. He's due $23m in 2021 and $28m in 2022. His dWAR the past two years: -1.4, -0.6.

So to trade a younger, much much much cheaper and better Benintendi, for an older, much much much more expensive and worse Upton, would have to include from the Angels another high quality piece. Because straight-up, that deal is a big-time loser for Boston.
I think I disagree here. Upton has battled some injuries but he came back strong last year. From 8/24 on (I know), he hit .289/.379/.602 in 95 PAs, a .413 wOBA, which wasn't luck according to Statcast. He posted higher EVs last year than ever, had a lower BABIP and whiffed less, so I don't see a ton of skill loss. His bat also plays particularly well in Fenway, where more of his fly balls the last two years turn into home runs than any other park.

He's expensive and not the Upton of 10 years ago, but I'm not sure it's a good bet that Beni's next two seasons at the plate would be better than Upton's age-33 and 34 seasons, and Upton was twice as good as Beni defensively (OOA) in 2019. Regardless, the point in such a deal would be Adell or Marsh.
 

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The Angels aren’t especially close to the luxury tax line, and even if they were in danger of going over, Pujols’s deal finally expires this year, so they could go over for a year and then reset their number easily enough before getting into the big penalties. Their owner is not shy about giving out big deals. And while Upton seems like he’s been around forever, he’s “only” 33 (almost the exact same age as JD Martinez! Maybe not the most optimistic comparison right now...) and roughly as far removed from a good offensive season as Benintendi. So I don’t know that they’re so desperate to get rid of him. I actually would be totally ok with the Sox getting him, but I don’t expect it. I do think the Angels should try to sign Bauer, though.
 

allmanbro

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Jul 19, 2005
247
Portland, Maine
If the Angels make a deal like that, the luxury tax is probably not the issue - the thinking would be that teams need to shed salary for their own financial reasons. It's an unusual offseason in that the financial situation is bad, but also may have hit different teams in very different ways that we don't know. So from the outside, we can't know which teams feel they need to do this, but it seems likely that there is at least one team out there in that position that would be interested in Benintendi.

Each trade we float here should come with a caveat along the lines of "well, if the Angels (or Astros or Twins or whoever) are looking to dump salary, this move might make sense." Individually, they are each probably really unlikely, but SOME trade along these lines seems likely, and it's fun to speculate about.
 

allmanbro

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Jul 19, 2005
247
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More generally: the report is that they are looking for an OF and pitching. The pitcher should be far and away the priority. They only really need "adequate" in the OF, and there's plenty of that available. This just strikes me as a unique opportunity to add a high quality SP, so I'd be disappointed if the key piece coming back is anything other than an SP - ideally a cost controlled mid/top of the rotation starter.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
2,099
The Angels aren’t especially close to the luxury tax line, and even if they were in danger of going over, Pujols’s deal finally expires this year, so they could go over for a year and then reset their number easily enough before getting into the big penalties. Their owner is not shy about giving out big deals. And while Upton seems like he’s been around forever, he’s “only” 33 (almost the exact same age as JD Martinez! Maybe not the most optimistic comparison right now...) and roughly as far removed from a good offensive season as Benintendi. So I don’t know that they’re so desperate to get rid of him. I actually would be totally ok with the Sox getting him, but I don’t expect it. I do think the Angels should try to sign Bauer, though.
The kernel of that Angels deal was taken from Ken Rosenthal's reporting in The Athletic on 12/13. It's paywalled, but the relevant section is here:

(A)s badly as the Angels need rotation help, they will be reluctant to overpay for such pitchers under new GM Perry Minasian, sources say. The Angels figure to at least dabble in the top of the market — Trevor Bauer in free agency, Blake Snell in trade. One way to clear money and add pitching might be to package outfielder Justin Upton with a prospect — say, outfielder Brandon Marsh...Upton, 33, is one of many players who performed oddly in the shortened season, batting .094 with a .357 OPS in his first 18 games, .289 with a .981 OPS in his final 24. Even teams that like him almost certainly would balk at the $51 million he is owed over the next two seasons. And though Marsh, 22, is the game’s No. 39 prospect, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, the Angels’ top-heavy payroll increases his value to the club as an inexpensive piece going forward.

Jo Adell, Law’s No. 2 overall prospect, falls into the same category, but could he be the centerpiece of a trade for Snell? Perhaps, if the Angels prefer to keep Marsh and another outfielder, Jordyn Adams, their first-round pick in 2018. Adell, 21, sputtered in his first 138 plate appearances, batting .161 with a .478 OPS. The Angels promoted him only because Upton was struggling, and kept him only because they traded Brian Goodwin. Then again, with more development time, he might become the star the Angels and so many others in the industry envisioned.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
48,078
deep inside Guido territory
Across baseball, Tuesday seemed to represent a shift in momentum building toward a trade including Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi, multiple sources told BostonSportsJournal.com.

The Red Sox have been entertaining offers on Benintendi for the last few days, and Monday, the Miami Marlins briefly emerged as a potential landing spot.

But one source familiar with the Marlins’ thinking dismissed that option out of hand Tuesday, pointing out that even Benintendi’s modest salary for 2021 ($6.6 million) and arbitration-eligibility for 2022 would be too steep for the budget-conscious Marlins. Additionally, the Marlins, building toward contention, would be reluctant to interrupt their progress by giving up the prospects or young major league-ready players the Red Sox are seeking in return for Benintendi.

That doesn’t, however, mean the Sox don’t have plenty of other clubs interested.

According to sources, the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s have all had talks involving Benintendi. A second source suggested the St. Louis Cardinals had also expressed an interest and noted the Pittsburgh Pirates could be another under-the-radar possibility, given that Pirates GM Ben Cherington held that same position with the Sox when Boston chose Benintendi in the first round of the 2015 draft and has a long been a big booster of the outfielder.
The Sox are primarily focused on pitching as part of any return package, which makes perfect sense given how suspect their starting rotation is currently. The team will be without Chris Sale (recovering from Tommy John surgery) until June and Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off a completely lost season due to COVID-19 (and a resulting case of myocarditis) with an uncertain workload.
The Sox are also said to be in the market for outfield prospects, another area that is currently thin at the upper levels of the system. On the immediate horizon, only Jarren Duran projects as a major league regular and the loss of Benintendi, coupled with the likelihood that Jackie Bradley Jr. will sign elsewhere in free agency, leaves two gaping holes in the Sox outfield for the upcoming season.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/01/12/mcadam-andrew-benintendi-trade-talks-heating-red-sox/
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Moniak was of course the overall #1 pick in 2016, he is still young but Keith Law was not hesitant to call him a bust last summer (not that Keith isn't wildly wrong sometimes):

"They played it extremely safe and took a low upside guy, and Moniak isn’t going to hit the upside even that he had. He’s not going to be able to play center field regularly in the majors. He has never been able to pick up off-speed stuff. His recognition of left-handed breaking stuff or right-handed change-ups every time I’ve seen him has been way below average, and I think it’s just going to limit him to some kind of reserve role in the major leagues.”"

https://www.philliesnation.com/2020/07/keith-law-mickey-moniak-selection-looks-like-complete-disaster/
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Apr 14, 2009
6,122
el guapo's belly
If Moniak is the type of piece coming back in these deals, I'd rather bet on Benny to be somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 and rolling with him.

Moniak has been overmatched everywhere in the minors. Not even one great outlier year to rationalize.

The only urgency to move Benny is if the team really 100% believe he is cooked, but if there's some hope he regains his 2017/2018 form, they should hang on to him unless Bloom is absolutely blown away by the pieces coming back.
 
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billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
1,005
Washington DC
for whatever it's worth, Monaick's fangraph's FV score would put him between 5-10 in Boston's system.

I think fangraphs is way too bearish on the sox system, there are a hand full of other 40+ that should be 45, so let's just say he'd rank in my rose colored ranking somewhere between 5-15.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Jun 26, 2006
3,193
CT
As a 20 y/o in AA in his last full year in the minors he put up a wRC+ of 115. I mean that's pretty respectable. Granted his OBP sucked (.303).

But if it's true he can't hit offspeed stuff....

Perhaps the Triple A arm is what intrigues Bloom more.

But again, it's just a rumor.
 

The Slidey Dog

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Jan 4, 2017
8
I rarely post, for good reason, I don't have the time to do the research that others can do around here. That said, this topic is making me sick. I can't believe Bloom and Co. think this kid is cooked. They are way too smart for that. The kid essentially didn't have an age 26 season. Who knows how much COVID messed him up, hell, even Christian Yelich's 2020 pro-rates to less than 2 fWAR. Does anyone honestly believe Yelich is suddenly a 2 win player?

There is a tremendous amount of knowledge here so I am sure someone has/can find a comparable to Andrew's track record. What other high first round picks made it to MLB within a year of being drafted, put up a 4.4 fWAR (and I take issue with the defensive side of that dragging him down - I am old enough to remember the 60 page threads discussing how LF at Fenway screws up defensive measures) in their age 24 season as is cooked by 26? Are there any?

I know people are referencing his 2019 season, how bad he was in the second half. That is not accurate. It was really just September. On 8/31 he was sitting on 38 doubles, 5 triples, 12 HRs and a triple slash of .283/.357/.439. I know he got hit by a pitch on his thumb that screwed up the end of his September, but I also recall he was banged up regularly throughout the year (probably due to bulking up in the off-season).

I used Yelich for a reason above. Progressions are not linear, Yelich had a significant decline year in the middle of his early years, then hit 26 and bang, became a 7+ win player. I am not suggesting Andrew is Yelich, but 2/3 a Yelich? Maybe. If Yelich's third season, the season after his decline year, was a terrible 14 game sample size, would people think he was cooked? I think there is a much better chance Andrew puts up 15-20 fWAR the next four seasons that he does 1-4 (that seems like a decent definition of cooked). There is way too much upside here to give away - the recency bias of 14 games in 2020 and 17 games in September of 2019 is ridiculous.

Sorry, this is more of a rant than an analysis. There may be some hope sprinkled into the above. Andrew invited my then 7 year old son to meet him at batting practice before a Yankee game in 2016. He is a great kid, I would hate to see him go before getting the chance as a Red Sox to prove he is a really good baseball player.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
3,159
I imagine Bloom must like something about the guy if he is willing to make him a central part of a package. Going through the AAA arms of the Phillies, who do you think it would be? I suppose it depends on how highly each party values Moniak.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/phillies/
Arms listed as AAA/MLB in top 30 Phils prospects

1. (28 in MLB so not happening) Spencer Howard
4. Francisco Morales
5. Adonis Medina
9. Enyel de los Santos
14. JoJo Romero
15. Damon Jones
16. Mauricio Llovera
18. Christopher Sanchez
21. David Parkinson
27. Kyle Dohy

Moniak is ranked 12.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,159
I rarely post, for good reason, I don't have the time to do the research that others can do around here. That said, this topic is making me sick. I can't believe Bloom and Co. think this kid is cooked. They are way too smart for that. The kid essentially didn't have an age 26 season. Who knows how much COVID messed him up, hell, even Christian Yelich's 2020 pro-rates to less than 2 fWAR. Does anyone honestly believe Yelich is suddenly a 2 win player?

There is a tremendous amount of knowledge here so I am sure someone has/can find a comparable to Andrew's track record. What other high first round picks made it to MLB within a year of being drafted, put up a 4.4 fWAR (and I take issue with the defensive side of that dragging him down - I am old enough to remember the 60 page threads discussing how LF at Fenway screws up defensive measures) in their age 24 season as is cooked by 26? Are there any?

I know people are referencing his 2019 season, how bad he was in the second half. That is not accurate. It was really just September. On 8/31 he was sitting on 38 doubles, 5 triples, 12 HRs and a triple slash of .283/.357/.439. I know he got hit by a pitch on his thumb that screwed up the end of his September, but I also recall he was banged up regularly throughout the year (probably due to bulking up in the off-season).

I used Yelich for a reason above. Progressions are not linear, Yelich had a significant decline year in the middle of his early years, then hit 26 and bang, became a 7+ win player. I am not suggesting Andrew is Yelich, but 2/3 a Yelich? Maybe. If Yelich's third season, the season after his decline year, was a terrible 14 game sample size, would people think he was cooked? I think there is a much better chance Andrew puts up 15-20 fWAR the next four seasons that he does 1-4 (that seems like a decent definition of cooked). There is way too much upside here to give away - the recency bias of 14 games in 2020 and 17 games in September of 2019 is ridiculous.

Sorry, this is more of a rant than an analysis. There may be some hope sprinkled into the above. Andrew invited my then 7 year old son to meet him at batting practice before a Yankee game in 2016. He is a great kid, I would hate to see him go before getting the chance as a Red Sox to prove he is a really good baseball player.

Honestly, it does seem like they don't really plan on contending next season. If they trade him it seems like Bloom may believe in Renfroe as a full time starter and have scouting reports that are higher on Moniak than Keith Law. IDK what they really plan on doing with the rotation since it is still pretty terrible. Maybe they win the Kluber sweepstakes, hope he turns into an ace again, and try to ship him at the deadline when Sale is back.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Apr 5, 2014
424
Why are people buying into this "report?"

The Phillies system is horrific and Moniak is written up on fangraphs as "low-end regular, a .310 OBP, .420 SLG sort."
 
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