Reds close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey.

[soxhop411]

paul hoynes ‏@hoynsie  2m
Heard Reds getting close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey. Bound to influence Indians talks with Justin Masterson
 
that seems like an overpayment..
 
How will this effect Lester?

 

[MakMan44]

I think their assuming he's going to build of his 2013 and continue to be a 3 WAR pitcher. Seems like a gamble IMO

 

[ForceAtHome]

That seems about right to me. You're not buying out any arb years and Homer Bailey will be 28 when he hits free agency. If the final figure is around that $16-17m AAV, that's about what AJ Burnett and Hiroki Kuroda are getting. It's obviously a lot less than the commitment to Tanaka as well. Bailey has thrown 200+ quality MLB innings in each of the past two seasons. He's one of the younger starting pitchers to be both good and potentially a free agent. His velocity also went up last season.
 
Depending on who is re-signed or not, Bailey has a good shot at being one of the top available SP next winter. Scherzer, Lester, Masterson, and Shields seem to be his primary competition, but Bailey has youth on his side more than any of the others.

 

[Plympton91]

That's great news for Reds fans.  I am glad to see at least one small market team that is willing to spend its revenue sharing money on the baseball team instead of the owners' heirs.

 

[rembrat]

 
paul hoynes ‏@hoynsie  2m
Heard Reds getting close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey. Bound to influence Indians talks with Justin Masterson
 
that seems like an overpayment..
 
How will this effect Lester?
 

 
Lester is already on record with wanting to stay in Boston even if it means leaving money on the table. He, of course, could always take that back and fly the coop for the biggest offer but I get the sense that Lester has never been a money first guy. It's really up to the FO at this point to draw something up before the season is over, ideally, before it even starts.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Lester is already on record with wanting to stay in Boston even if it means leaving money on the table. He, of course, could always take that back and fly the coop for the biggest offer but I get the sense that Lester has never been a money first guy. It's really up to the FO at this point to draw something up before the season is over, ideally, before it even starts.

Lester is a better pitcher than Bailey, there's no doubt about that. Personally, I thought all he meant was that Lester's starting point might have gone up. For whatever reason, respect or otherwise, I think it's fair to wonder if that's the case. 

 

[rembrat]

I mean, they're both SP and that's where the comp ends. Were Bailey 2 years older and a southpaw then perhaps.

 

[Hoplite]

It might lower Lester's value a little, but I doubt it really changes much. The Red Sox will point to the fact that Bailey's younger and has pitched similarly of late, and Lester will point to his postseason heroics and the fact that he's been doing it for longer.

 

[MakMan44]

I mean, they're both SP and that's where the comp ends. Were Bailey 2 years older and a southpaw then perhaps.

 
 

It might lower Lester's value a little, but I doubt it really changes much. The Red Sox will point to the fact that Bailey's younger and has pitched similarly of late, and Lester will point to his postseason heroics and the fact that he's been doing it for longer.

Both of these are fair points. I don't really agree with soxhop, I was just pointing out that his question wasn't totally off base.

 

[ehaz]

Bailey 2011-2013: 550 IP    105 ERA+  3.40 K/BB
Lester 2011-2013: 610.1 IP 104 ERA+  2.50 K/BB
 
Bailey missed a huge chunk of 2011 with a shoulder injury, also was his worst statistical season of the last three years.