As someone that had literally zero interest in Paxton this off-season the calculus has changed a good bit, no.There's a bit of irony in that we're talking about bringing in Paxton to eat some innings when a big part of the argument against bringing him back last winter was that he couldn't be counted on to give them a ton of innings. He's one good start (6.2) away from matching his innings total from last year. I think he's probably good to go 140-150 innings in total for the year, barring injury of course, so I don't really doubt he can eat innings. My hesitation with bringing him in now is he'd be the sixth best starter on the roster. I'd prefer to see them bring in someone with better numbers than Criswell if they're going to bump Criswell to the pen.
I had no desire for Paxton because:
Reason 1 - was that he'd have taken the spot away from someone else (he signed before Giolito or Whitlock got hurt, so that would have meant with Paxton you were looking at having a rotation of Giolito, Paxton, Bello, Pivetta, and forcing at least one of Crawford or Houck to the 'pen or two of them if Whitlock was going to be bound and determined to try as a SP again).
Reason 2 - For better or worse I believe the reporting out there about $225m being the "budget" the Sox have to start a year, and Paxton would have brought them over that. I didn't think allocating $11m (or $7m after the revised contract) was a good use of that, and now you're talking about more like $1.5m.
Reason 3 - I didn't think he was a good bet to be both healthy and good (because he hasn't been since 2019). I still don't think he's all that good of a bet to be both healthy and good - but he's probably a little bit better of a bet to be good than Patrick Corbin and you're hoping he can stay healthy for call it 7 starts instead of a full season.
Reason 4 - I do believe in trade deadline mindset mattering to players because they're human beings - and enough of them have talked about it that if THEY think it's real, then it's real, so to speak. Paxton is a credible MLB arm. Would I like someone better, younger and more durable - of course. But if the choices are Paxton or "nothing" and several bullpen games, I'm taking Paxton.
They're going to need someone else to start games, and I think it sends a better message to the team banking on James Paxton - even if he literally blows out his arm on the first pitch than telling the team "we think you guys stink, so you're only getting Kyle Barraclough, Matt Dermody, bullpen games started by Kyle Ort and Pablo Reyes."
*Even if the Red Sox acquire him and he starts 8 games with a 3.25ERA, I don't think they should extend him, for many of the same reasons mentioned above.*