Red Sox trade deadline rumors
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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I'm not into that. His defense is so bad that even the A's are doing their best to keep him off the field. He's only started 13 games in OF this year.
Thomas would be fun to add to the KAOS but I can't see a reason to add him, since they don't really need an outfielder with a year of control beyond this one.
Isn’t the reason to add him to improve the 2024 squad and serve as a nice bridge to when Roman Anthony might be ready?
I'd be assuming that Rafaela would have to play the OF next season with Story returning and that would make a crowded outfield. Refsnyder is fine as a bridge too.
I'm guessing Dominic Smith when Casas returns.... they are trying to add a right handed bat per Breslow ("The chance to maybe look to add some right-handed offense could make sense.”) - taking O'Neil out would not make sense.
It's a push for 2024, and then O'Neill hits FA while Rooker has all three arb years remaining. Presumably you move Yoshida in the offseason, and Rooker becomes the RHH DH to slot between Devers and Casas. This leaves you with a Duran–Rafaela–Abreu/Refsnyder outfield.
If we want to spend real capital on a hitter, I think we should go after Isaac Paredes. He's a good RH power bat, he can cover the corners and 2B, he's young and controlled for 3 more years, and he was actually created in a lab to play at Fenway:
He'd be expensive. I think he might be worth it? The Rays have Junior Caminero to take over at third long term.
Tampa will always prioritize pitching in trades and the Sox lack there.
Maybe Fitts or Wikelman added to some IF depth (I could see the Rays liking Meidroth a lot)
Make Devers/Casas/O'Neill (re-signed)/Rocker/whoever else the DH and just get rid of Yoshida. He's owed $18 Mil per for 3 more years. Let's not pretend that eating a good chunk of that won't effect other financial decisions such as FA signings, extentions or other trades.
I am going to guess he doesn't make it past Cincinnati, who needs a SP, but the Sox should probably put a claim in on him, for sure, just in case.
I assume that's to clear space on the 40-man for Kershaw's return?
I guess maybe it's worth kicking the tires from a depth perspective, but his walks are way up and his FIP (4.97) is higher than anyone currently in the Sox rotation. He's not improving on what they have but maybe he can provide competent innings that saves wear and tear on guys like Crawford and Houck.
For those who don’t want to click the link, Dodgers DFAing James Paxton. He just handled the Sox, I’m down with seeing if we can get him.
Orioles looking to move Mountcastle per MLBTR... With Casas looking far from being ready and 1b being a hole, what are thoughts on obtaining him? He's had a pretty decent year so far and he can play some outfield when needed.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mountry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2024-07-23_br
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mountry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2024-07-23_br
Is 1B a hole? Dom has a 124 wrc+ since the start of June.
He's also been protected from LHP somewhat but currently has a reverse split.
I don't think Mountcastle is the right answer. His cost will be commensurate with his 2.5 years of control when what we really need is a rental, and preferably one who can play somewhere additional to first.
He's also been protected from LHP somewhat but currently has a reverse split.
I don't think Mountcastle is the right answer. His cost will be commensurate with his 2.5 years of control when what we really need is a rental, and preferably one who can play somewhere additional to first.
How likely would/should Baltimore be to move move Mountcastle to a division rival with whom they seven remaining games with? And what would Boston be willing to part with considering he's not a FA until '27 and blocked by Casas?
Sox talking to Dodgers about a trade for James Paxton. Sox would only be on the hook for about $1.5 million of his salary.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/07/red-sox-in-trade-talks-with-dodgers-about-reunion-with-lefty-starter-reports.html
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/07/red-sox-in-trade-talks-with-dodgers-about-reunion-with-lefty-starter-reports.html
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Agree.... Paredes can play all over the infield and has a good bat. Perfect fit for us as a utility/DH guy with flexibility. It would be an expensive trade- but if it only involved pieces outside of our big 3 prospects, I think it might be worth it.
I’m skeptical. There’s a reason the Dodgers DFAed him — he has a 5.28 xFIP and the lowest FB velocity of his career (93 mph, down from 95 last year). He’s also a few innings from exceeding his most IP in a season since 2019.
Always good to have a warm body and the team is familiar with Paxton, but this feels like dumpster diving, not the kind of upgrade to the rotation I’ve been hoping to see (Kikuchi, Fedde, Flaherty, etc.)
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The thing is, he hasn't lost the velocity altogether. He really reached back for an inning or two there to blow away Devers. I think he's maybe still got the velocity but he's trying to be cautious in how he uses it to increase his longevity.
I don't blame the guy, he's had a lot of trouble staying on the field, and whatever he can do to extend his career would be prudent.
That's why I floated the idea of him going into our bullpen mix. If he can throw 96-97 for two or three innings at a time, he could be a weapon. I see the peripherals and I take them seriously, but I'm also thinking that in another role where he can dial it up he might be successful.
All that said... yeah, I don't think he'd be an upgrade on Criswell or anyone else really. Good depth for the bullpen, sure, but not an upgrade like the guys you listed (although I'd add that Kikuchi has a worse xERA than Criswell this year).
He's not been great this season and there are in fact several reasons why he's been DFAed, two of them being the activation of Kershaw and Glasnow from the IL today. I think Paxton is far from the first choice that any of us might have to help bolster the pitching staff, but he might be the easiest/quickest to get ATM. If this is the best effort that Breslow makes before the deadline I'll be disappointed, but as a first step to get some quick help I'm OK with it, especially if there is something that Bailey can help him out with.
I think he's been better than that xFIP indicates. He looked very good against the Red Sox on Sunday and reached 96 on his FB at times during the start. I'd be OK with him taking the Cooper Criswell role as the number 5 starter. This move doesn't stop Breslow from going out and getting a true upgrade like you mentioned.
They need innings at this point so they should pick him up. Hopefully they’re willing to pay the $1.5 million remaining so they can just send LA a low A lottery ticket.
Exactly. They're going to have to build in some rest for their SPs through the remainder of the season. If the choice comes down to lets say 4 bull pen games and 4 Paxton starts, I'll take 4 Paxton starts.
While I still hope they add with the "long term" in mind and go out and get another starter with term (Taillon remains my choice) and a RH middle of the order bat with term (Paredes, mentioned above, is someone I'd be ok tapping into the ATM ATM ATM for - yes I wanted to use all three at once). If they aren't able to get those type of pieces for the long term, I'm more than fine with them adding ancillary parts on really small prices to show the clubhouse they're trying to add "something." This is where the Paxton's of the world come in to play.
If nothing else, tell them "we believe in you enough to give up this nothing prospect and pay $1.5m to get James Paxton instead of using bullpen games."
We’re not looking for a playoff starter; we’re adding depth. I’d love Paxton coming back. Possibly also another pitcher?
This is a reasonable point of view, and dumpster diving was too harsh.
It’s always good to have depth, and Paxton could be a solid swingman as well (better than Chase Anderson). I just don’t want him to be the only rotation upgrade.
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I think we should be looking for both. That doesn't necessarily mean being in GFIN mode and overpaying because the "window" is closing because it's clearly on the cusp of opening. I think Breslow needs to explore all options especially if there is a starter available with some remaining years left. It may not happen, but doesn't mean that it shouldn't be explored.
A guy like Paxton may help you get to the playoffs, he seems unlikely to help much once you are there. It all depends on what the Sox goals are here; given the last few years, I think being competitive, having a winning season, and doing what they can to make the post-season is a worthy goal. I wouldn’t pass on a trade just because the upside isn’t high, I think.
Also in regards to Paxton and the playoffs, while his potential role may not be that of a postseason starter I might rather see him as a long guy/innings eater than Anderson.
Total aside but I love that every time I see someone mention Dom, my mind reads it as Dorn.
Nicely phrased BPMS. For those who haven't been reading every post, "(Paredes is someone I'd be ok tapping into the ATM ATM ATM for...) means Paredes is someone BPMS would be okay with "tapping into the Anthony/Teel/Mayer Automated Teller Machine at the moment..." l, or ATM ATM ATM. Again, well phrased BPMS.
If you pick up Paxton, you're going to ride that bike until the wheels fall off. And he isn't going to stop you from bringing in a front of the rotation type before the deadline.
If he's cooked, you can easily cut him and go back to Criswell. I'm not really seeing a downside to bringing him in and seeing if he can give you 5-6 innings of solid enough pitching to give you a chance to win some games.
And the playoff rotation has nothing to do with Paxton. You bring him in to help get you to the playoffs and keep the innings in check for the kids, you're not worried about him starting a playoff game.
If he's cooked, you can easily cut him and go back to Criswell. I'm not really seeing a downside to bringing him in and seeing if he can give you 5-6 innings of solid enough pitching to give you a chance to win some games.
And the playoff rotation has nothing to do with Paxton. You bring him in to help get you to the playoffs and keep the innings in check for the kids, you're not worried about him starting a playoff game.
A hearty endorsement of trying to get Paxton here at some kind of reasonable cost. However, I don't think we'll be able to get any kind of decent starter who has multiple years of control left without overpaying, given how many teams are buying and how few are selling. I agree that any such opportunity should be explored, and I'm confident that it will be, but I suspect that we're more likely to try to grab back-of-the-rotation starters and middle relievers, hopefully acquiring them with some of our decent minor leaguers who will be part of the 40-man crunch this offseason.
To me it all depends on what the "overpay" is. Just as an example of two guys that I really like (Taillon and Bassitt), I think that either of those players would be attainable without dipping into the ATM Campbell, Montgomery (obviously PTBNL and 6 months and stuff aside). So while something built around a deal of something like 3 of 6 from the Bleis, Yorke, Jordan, Zanetello, Gonzalez, Castro group would probably be an "overpay" it's one that I think would help the Sox and make a lot of sense. Not only for this year, but for the next couple of seasons as well as both players have term. Would I dip into the ATM (CM) pieces for them - no, certainly not. Would I overpay in terms of pieces outside of those - yes. But only for guys with more than this year (or put another way, yes for Taillon and Bassitt but not for Flaherty).
However, I agree (I think) that the most likely path is to go after rentals with pieces that are more in the "Eddinson Paulino and below" tier (and depending on the player in question, a good bit below).
Even going out and getting pieces that should cost basically nothing - lets say they go out and get Paxton or Patrick Corbin, Tommy Pham and something that is a relief pitcher and I'm not going through every RP name ostensibly on the market - would at least show the team that they're "investing" in them with known MLB players that could help them get to the playoffs.
That would at least allow them a "modified" 6 man rotation where you get the opportunity to skip a turn for Houck, Crawford and Bello without a) the white flag that is often a bullpen game and b) without overtaxing said bullpen.
For instance, say they get James Paxton. They could then line up as:
7/24 - Pivetta
7/25 - off day
7/26 - Bello
7/27 - Crawford
7/28 - Paxton
7/29 - Criswell
7/30 - Pivetta
7/31 - Bello
8/1 - off day
8/2 - Houck (has missed one start but gotten 10 days of rest)
8/3 - Paxton
8/4 - Criswell
8/5 - Pivetta
8/6 - Bello
8/7 Crawford (has missed one start but gotten 10 days of rest)
8/8 - off day
8/8 - Houck
8/9 - Paxton
8/10 - Pivetta
8/11 - Criswell
8/12 - Crawford
8/13 - Houck
8/14 - Paxton
8/15 - Pivetta
8/16 - Bello (has missed one start but gotten 10 days of rest)
...and so on and so forth for the remainder of the season. That could be hugely important with Houck, Crawford and Bello set to blow through their prior career high in innings pitched.
Also - thanks @Sin Duda, I was proud of that.
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There's a bit of irony in that we're talking about bringing in Paxton to eat some innings when a big part of the argument against bringing him back last winter was that he couldn't be counted on to give them a ton of innings. He's one good start (6.2) away from matching his innings total from last year. I think he's probably good to go 140-150 innings in total for the year, barring injury of course, so I don't really doubt he can eat innings. My hesitation with bringing him in now is he'd be the sixth best starter on the roster. I'd prefer to see them bring in someone with better numbers than Criswell if they're going to bump Criswell to the pen.
I don’t disagree with that in theory- but there’s a really desperate need for a RH in the pen- could Criswell be that guy? He doesn’t have much of a split (actually tougher on LH), If he could be a Whitlock 2021 type weapon in the pen, than the combo of Paxton / Criswell could be more useful than Criswell / Horn.
Then again, if Paxton stinks you could be making the rotation much worse, which will put more pressure on the pen. So can see both sides.
Then again, if Paxton stinks you could be making the rotation much worse, which will put more pressure on the pen. So can see both sides.
What made Whitlock a weapon out of the pen was his velocity (which made his changeup even better by contrast). Criswell doesn't have that. I don't see him being all that effective as a "weapon" out of the pen. He can eat innings in a blowout or if the starter gets chased, but he's not a guy you can bring into a game when you need a K and expect to get it. The only starters they have who could be that 2021 Whitlock kind of weapon are the guys you don't want to move out of the rotation at all (Houck, Crawford, Bello).