Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

[chawson]

God I hate the trope of "wasting a player's prime".

And what of my post suggests that they're wasting his prime? I'm suggesting re-signing some of their pending free agents (say Bogaerts, Vazquez, and Eovaldi with the latter two to shorter deals) then pick up a few more short-term mid-level veteran free agents to fill gaps in the roster, and yes, try to contend. They can put out a $180-200M payroll without making huge headlines with their signees (other than Bogie).

The absolute dumbest thing they can do this winter is sign a bunch of guys to long and expensive deals just to appease the media and fanbase that thinks they're not trying hard enough.

Yeah, I’m definitely not saying they “should sign a bunch of guys to long and expensive deals to appease the media and fanbase.” The media won’t be appeased and most of the fanbase are idiots. But what good reason is there to put out a $180-200M payroll, as you suggest, when next year’s CBT is $233 million? Devers is under contract one more season, and he’s 26. If Bogaerts is still here, which I support and think happens, he’ll be another year toward decline.

The language of wasting prime years is not a trope. It’s just a basic description of events. You want to re-sign Eovaldi and Vazquez? Great, I’m into it. But that sounds like we’re just rolling out the same team we did this year, a little older but hopefully with better injury luck, and crossing our fingers we’ll stumble into a Wild Card spot waiting for contracts to expire and Casas, Mayer and Yorke to get here.

The Red Sox shouldn’t need to do half-decade rebuilds. They don’t need to hover $50 million under the luxury tax threshold just so a few more line items are in the black.

I’m saying we should do what we can to get Soto, who is the best player available to the Sox since Pedro. Do the Cardinals or Padres really have the capacity to take on Corbin’s contract and extend him at $475-500M? Do the Nats feel any incentive to trade Soto out of the National League? Can we repurpose the returns from JDM, Vazquez and Eovaldi trades toward a Soto deal? Can we protect even more good prospects on the 40-man after making a 6-for-1 deal for Soto? We’re talking about a player who on one axis is as sure a lock of a HoF talent as it gets, and on the other has as many prime years as possible ahead of him. And one who’d seem to want to be here, because we have plenty of evidence suggesting he grew up dreaming he’d be a Red Sox slugger. I do not care in the slightest that he might be paid $35 million to put up a .750 OPS in 2038.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Passan for what it’s worth because I wasn’t watching so I can’t verify the quote.

View: https://twitter.com/hefchad/status/1553898896795090945?s=20&t=VA3RU9JLIJl8jrDkl2P2HQ

further scrolling down the Reddit thread has someone saying that passan didn’t say it. So yeah. It’s that time of year.

View: https://twitter.com/hefchad/status/1553904571185086465

 

[Beomoose]

If we can't trust "@hefchad" who can we trust?

 

[Murby]

Looking at the big FAs this offseason, who would we really want to sign? Go for Turner over Xander? Contreras over Vazquez? Mitch Haniger or Joey Gallo in the OF?

Haniger is a nice player, but he cannot stay healthy. Wife is a Mariner fan, so I see quite a bit of those games.

 

[streeter88]

Does Hefchad wear smoking jacket pjs too?

 

[amfox1]

If Sox do deal with Houston, I’d love to take a flier on Forrest Whitley. Went from top pitching prospect in minors to injured. Shut down recently with a shoulder issue that doesn’t seem overly serious but still only 24.

He's essentially like trading for a worse version of Jay Groome. Former name, suspensions, injuries, stuff down. You're betting on a reclamation. Better hope he's the third prospect in the deal, not the first.

 

[OCD SS]

Neither the Giants nor Red Sox are likely to be pure sellers. Both teams will be reluctant to concede when their playoff odds are hovering around 20 percent, and both will want to bounce back quickly in 2023.

The high asking price for anyone makes sense in this context. The radio broadcast kept bring up that the team wants to “keep the band together” to try and make another run;unless you’re getting a real return they may as well take that 20% gamble.

 

[RobertS975]

I kind of agree, in that I think you want and need legitimate major league players or guys who are close to it in return for the guys you are moving. We’ve got enough A ball prospects. Dumping the few productive veterans for A ball prospects would lead to a pretty miserable final few months given the lack of depth in AAA. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but I think you want as positive environment as possible for the players who remain.

The problem is that those "productive veterans" are free agents when this season is over. How much money are the Red Sox willing to offer JD, Vaz or Eovaldi to keep them here? If X is not being shopped around, then both sides must be pretty confident on an extention.

If they are in love with Vaz, they can always be the team that offers either the most or close enough to the most once he is a free agent. But that doesn't preclude renting him out for 3 months for whatever they can get.in return.

If I were the players about to hit free agency, I would love the opportunity to showcase myself with a possible deep playoff run... like Kyle Scgwarber did last year, or Pearce/Eovaldi in 2018.

 

[BigSoxFan]

He's essentially like trading for a worse version of Jay Groome. Former name, suspensions, injuries, stuff down. You're betting on a reclamation. Better hope he's the third prospect in the deal, not the first.

Not suggesting he should be the headliner of the deal but he’s exactly the kind of guy I take a chance on. It’s been a really rough few years for him but he’s still young enough to dream on. More than likely, just another guy who got close but got de-railed. But the stuff was once great.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not suggesting he should be the headliner of the deal but he’s exactly the kind of guy I take a chance on. It’s been a really rough few years for him but he’s still young enough to dream on. More than likely, just another guy who got close but got de-railed. But the stuff was once great.

Did his stuff return 100% after injury because the pitcher you are describing sounds an awful lot like Jay Groome, except Groome's stuff took a permanent hit due to injury.

On top of that, he was just pulled from a start not long ago and had some tests done. I guess they showed no structural damage so that's good. There's something up though.

https://www.si.com/mlb/astros/prospects/houston-astros-forrest-whitley-suffered-upper-bicep-inflammation

no thanks.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

If X is not being shopped around, then both sides must be pretty confident on an extension.

Or, just as likely, the Sox have determined that what they would get back wouldn’t be worth substantially more than the comp pick + the publicity hit.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Did his stuff return 100% after injury because the pitcher you are describing sounds an awful lot like Jay Groome, except Groome's stuff took a permanent hit due to injury.

On top of that, he was just pulled from a start not long ago and had some tests done. I guess they showed no structural damage so that's good. There's something up though.

Full disclosure: My brother literally talks to him from time to time since they’re from the same high school (several years apart) and went to same gym for a few years. He’s apparently a really good kid. Haven’t gotten an update in several months but I did see the latest shoulder injury. Not sure about the stuff but I did hear that the Astros messed with his delivery a while back and it’s pretty been injury central since. Not sure if that’s just a coincidence or not but he seemed to think so.

 

[RobertS975]

I would hope “major leaguers” could also mean near-MLB talent. Can’t imagine it would be easy to pull desirable MLB roster players from teams trying to make a World Series run.

Agree, but clubs close to making a legit postseason run ofter have a backlog of players in their system, players that are ready or nearly ready but blocked by the star talent on the MLB team roster.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, I’m definitely not saying they “should sign a bunch of guys to long and expensive deals to appease the media and fanbase.” The media won’t be appeased and most of the fanbase are idiots. But what good reason is there to put out a $180-200M payroll, as you suggest, when next year’s CBT is $233 million? Devers is under contract one more season, and he’s 26. If Bogaerts is still here, which I support and think happens, he’ll be another year toward decline.

The language of wasting prime years is not a trope. It’s just a basic description of events. You want to re-sign Eovaldi and Vazquez? Great, I’m into it. But that sounds like we’re just rolling out the same team we did this year, a little older but hopefully with better injury luck, and crossing our fingers we’ll stumble into a Wild Card spot waiting for contracts to expire and Casas, Mayer and Yorke to get here.

The Red Sox shouldn’t need to do half-decade rebuilds. They don’t need to hover $50 million under the luxury tax threshold just so a few more line items are in the black.

I absolutely agree with how you've framed this abstractly.

I’m saying we should do what we can to get Soto, who is the best player available to the Sox since Pedro. Do the Cardinals or Padres really have the capacity to take on Corbin’s contract and extend him at $475-500M? Do the Nats feel any incentive to trade Soto out of the National League? Can we repurpose the returns from JDM, Vazquez and Eovaldi trades toward a Soto deal? Can we protect even more good prospects on the 40-man after making a 6-for-1 deal for Soto? We’re talking about a player who on one axis is as sure a lock of a HoF talent as it gets, and on the other has as many prime years as possible ahead of him. And one who’d seem to want to be here, because we have plenty of evidence suggesting he grew up dreaming he’d be a Red Sox slugger.

However I completely disagree with the strategy. If Soto fell into our laps for nothing and wanted to sign at 10/300, it would be insane not to do that deal. If acquiring Soto wipes out most of the potential-MLB players in the farm system, plus locks us into $70 spent on a combination of him and Chris Sale (or whomever). . .thus impacting our ability/flexibility to actually sign free agents, it would be insane to do that deal.

Soto's a great player. In a synergistic environment, he's capable of being a capstone hitter that can elevate the lineup. But the history of our own club tells us it takes more than a great player and an occasional bunch of good-to-decent fill-ins to create windows of opportunity.

I do not care in the slightest that he might be paid $35 million to put up a .750 OPS in 2038.

The real question is whether you care about the 6 other free agents we'll have to moderately overpay to be competitive for a year or two before those free agents decline. Because we might have gutted the farm in the process.

As I said, it all depends on the deal. But from what I'm hearing, Soto's cost will be prohibitive. In a real-world sense.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I absolutely agree with how you've framed this abstractly.



However I completely disagree with the strategy. If Soto fell into our laps for nothing and wanted to sign at 10/300, it would be insane not to do that deal. If acquiring Soto wipes out most of the potential-MLB players in the farm system, plus locks us into $70 spent on a combination of him and Chris Sale (or whomever). . .thus impacting our ability/flexibility to actually sign free agents, it would be insane to do that deal.

Soto's a great player. In a synergistic environment, he's capable of being a capstone hitter that can elevate the lineup. But the history of our own club tells us it takes more than a great player and an occasional bunch of good-to-decent fill-ins to create windows of opportunity.



The real question is whether you care about the 6 other free agents we'll have to moderately overpay to be competitive for a year or two before those free agents decline. Because we might have gutted the farm in the process.

As I said, it all depends on the deal. But from what I'm hearing, Soto's cost will be prohibitive. In a real-world sense.

The key is trading Sale as part of the deal. Just don't tell WAS about his injuries, ssssh.

 

[amfox1]

https://theathletic.com/3465183/2022/08/01/mlb-trade-deadline-primer/

The rumblings have persisted: The Red Sox and Mets are talking about a trade that would send Martinez to Queens for Dominic Smith and a solid prospect. That type of deal would benefit the Mets in the short term and the Red Sox in the longer term. Martinez has made two consecutive All-Star teams, but age (he turns 35 later this month) and decline are real factors for the soon-to-be free agent.

It's Bowden, so buyer beware.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t really get the appeal of Smith, who is already making $4M. I guess you get a look at him the rest of the way and determine if he’s worth offering arbitration to? Seems very similar to Franchy. It’s something, I guess.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

https://theathletic.com/3465183/2022/08/01/mlb-trade-deadline-primer/



It's Bowden, so buyer beware.

are the Mets paying all of JDM's salary?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I don’t really get the appeal of Smith, who is already making $4M. I guess you get a look at him the rest of the way and determine if he’s worth offering arbitration to? Seems very similar to Franchy. It’s something, I guess.

Should be nothing but returning salary at this point.

 

[OCD SS]

The key is trading Sale as part of the deal. Just don't tell WAS about his injuries, ssssh.

Trading for Soto is essentially committing to replaying 2019 to the present. Hypothetically the team has locked in their big stars, but they have little they can use to build around them and will have to scrounge around limited FA markets while already leveraged against a very high payroll that will (via the CBT) further limit their ability to draw new players into the system. They will be attempting to rebuild while they compete.

The only way it works that I can see is to sell off everyone they can now in the hopes of replenishing the system as they trade for Soto, which seems like a really tall order. It doesn't help that such a move would have the Sox essentially punting 2022, so they're really only looking at 2 usefull seasons of Soto, when other teams can overbid them thinking that they will have him for 3 playoff runs.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Trading for Soto is essentially committing to replaying 2019 to the present. Hypothetically the team has locked in their big stars, but they have little they can use to build around them and will have to scrounge around limited FA markets while already leveraged against a very high payroll that will (via the CBT) further limit their ability to draw new players into the system. They will be attempting to rebuild while they compete.

The only way it works that I can see is to sell off everyone they can now in the hopes of replenishing the system as they trade for Soto, which seems like a really tall order. It doesn't help that such a move would have the Sox essentially punting 2022, so they're really only looking at 2 usefull seasons of Soto, when other teams can overbid them thinking that they will have him for 3 playoff runs.

I'm honestly full onboard with trading away everything we can short of Devers, Whitlock, and Houck. Get prospects to move for Soto. Sign him and Devers long-term and try to convince Xander to not opt-out or agree to an extension.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I don’t really get the appeal of Smith, who is already making $4M. I guess you get a look at him the rest of the way and determine if he’s worth offering arbitration to? Seems very similar to Franchy. It’s something, I guess.

Agree.... another sub par player that we hope sticks against the wall and repeats his best year.

 

[amfox1]

are the Mets paying all of JDM's salary?

Have to assume that taking Smith gets you a better prospect because he is negative value and takes up a 40-man spot. Smith would likely be non-tendered at the end of the season but he and Dalbec could platoon 1B for the rest of the season and let Casas finish the season at AAA.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm honestly full onboard with trading away everything we can short of Devers, Whitlock, and Houck. Get prospects to move for Soto. Sign him and Devers long-term and try to convince Xander to not opt-out or agree to an extension.

That's a lot to accomplish in 24 hours. The sun will rise, the sun will set, and Bloom will skip lunch?

 

[Yaz4Ever]

That's a lot to accomplish in 24 hours. The sun will rise, the sun will set, and Bloom will skip lunch?

Kind of like a yard sale that you forget to advertise for.

 

[Max Power]

The ideal return for JD would be an injured and/or overpaid but still productive 1B or OF who is still under contract for next season. It seems like the closest thing the Mets have to that is Smith, but he's missing the productive part. Maybe there's another team with a better fit.

It's likely that Chaim won't make many moves at all before the deadline. If the guys on the team were attractive trade targets, they'd currently be helping the Red Sox win more games and wouldn't be available. I don't see anyone offering much for injured and ineffective JD, Eovaldi, Wacha, or Hill. Vazquez probably has the most trade value right now, but switching out a starting catcher is tough.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Dominic Smith would not be the "return" for JDM. He would simply be a 40 man and salary relief offset for JDM that would allow for a better prospect to be attached.

I can already hear the call in's complaining.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1554108796024283137

Phillies looking for some defense in CF. Ramon Laureano is the top of the market but not that likely to be moved. Sone other considerations: Michael A. Taylor, Jackie Bradley Jr. (Dombrowski Red Sox link), Jose Siri.

 

[moondog80]

I do not care in the slightest that he might be paid $35 million to put up a .750 OPS in 2038.

You say that like that's the downside of a mega (16 year?) extension. Soto still being a league average hitter in 2038 would be an extremely rosy outcome. The concern would be this happening in 2028, when they are still on the hook for $300 million. This doesn't mean I want nothing to do with the Juan Soto sweepstakes, but these forever contacts, some team is going to get bitten in the ass for a long time, probably more than just one. Mike Trout played 39 games last year is visiting a spinal surgeon this week...

 

[jon abbey]

Yep, the best way to build a team is undoubtedly the way that the Orioles have been doing it, but not every market has the tolerance for those years of shitty teams. Bloom has been trying to compete and build up the system at the same time, and that is very very difficult to pull off.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

In that Smith-for-JDM trade, would that then mean Vaz is not getting dealt or will be moved in a separate deal? If so, and depending on the prospect, I think it's a deal worth making. Even if Smith continues to suck, at least he's an experienced 1B, which is a huge upgrade. Once Casas gets called up, Smith just goes to the bench or you DFA him.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Yep, the best way to build a team is undoubtedly the way that the Orioles have been doing it, but not every market has the tolerance for those years of shitty teams. Bloom has been trying to compete and build up the system at the same time, and that is very very difficult to pull off.

I'm wondering if Chaim will follow Cashman's lead a bit in using financial flexibility (after this season) to try to take on some bad teams' heftier contracts attached to still-useful players. IIRC Cash has done quite a bit of that, and in taking on the $ never really had to empty the cupboard of top prospects.

Free agency is always going to be a crappy way to build and the typical trade market can be unpredictable, so it's finding those soft spots around the league that can really benefit the teams with big pockets.

The other key to this, of course, is continuing to build up from within to keep a steady stream of cheap talent in the fold as needed.

 

[amfox1]

In that Smith-for-JDM trade, would that then mean Vaz is not getting dealt or will be moved in a separate deal? If so, and depending on the prospect, I think it's a deal worth making. Even if Smith continues to suck, at least he's an experienced 1B, which is a huge upgrade. Once Casas gets called up, Smith just goes to the bench or you DFA him.

CVaz's market doesn't settle until Contreras gets traded. JDM may get traded with CVaz to NYM but they are likely separate trades otherwise. I wouldn't think BOS is going to wait until the last minute to trade JDM, but I could see CVaz being a last-hour trade, with multiple bidders.

Smith is a good defensive 1B but hasn't fared well in LF. Basically a platoon bat with Dalbec, with Franchy going back to AAA, most likely.

 

[BigSoxFan]

CVaz's market doesn't settle until Contreras gets traded. JDM may get traded with CVaz to NYM but they are likely separate trades otherwise. I wouldn't think BOS is going to wait until the last minute to trade JDM, but I could see CVaz being a last-hour trade, with multiple bidders.

Smith is a good defensive 1B but hasn't fared well in LF. Basically a platoon bat with Dalbec, with Franchy going back to AAA, most likely.

Any idea why Smith has fared so poorly last couple of seasons? He looked like a breakout candidate during 2019-2020. Doesn't seem to have any huge L/R splits either. In any event, Smith plus a decent prospect, and maybe some A ball flier is probably a deal I do for JDM.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't know how the Sox see this, but here's what SoxProspects says about the arrival time of their top farmhands...

SS Mayer - late 2024
1b Casas - 2023 (it was 2022 but the injury impacted that obviously)
P Bello - 2023
2b Yorke - mid 2024
P Walter - late 2023
P Mata - mid 2024
CF Bleis - 2026
CF/SS Rafaela - 2024
P Winckowski - 2023
P Murphy - mid 2023
P Seabold - 2023
IF Paulino - late 2025
P Gonzalez - mid 2025
3b Jordan - mid 2025
SS Lugo - mid 2024
P Groome - mid 2023
3b Binelas - 2024
C Wong - 2023
C Hickey - 2025
P Ward - 2024
SS Downs - 2023
CF Jimenez - late 2024
P Crawford - 2022 (he's already here)
IF/OF McDonough - late 2024
SS/2b Bonaci - late 2025
P German - mid 2023
IF/OF Koss - 2024

Or to look at it by arrival time:

Here - Crawford
2023 - P Bello, P Seabold, 1b Casas, SS Downs, Wong
mid 2023 - P Murphy, P Groome, P German
late 2023 - P Walter
2024 - CF/SS Rafaela, 3b Binelas, P Ward, IF/OF Koss
mid 2024 - 2b Yorke, SS Lugo
late 2024 - SS Mayer, CF Jimenez, IF/OF McDonough
2025 - C Hickey
mid 2025 - P Gonzalez, 3b Jordan
late 2025 - IF Paulino, SS/2b Bonaci
2026 - CF Bleis

And this doesn't include any of their 2022 draft picks.

Of course, there's no way of knowing who will actually make it to the majors. These projected arrival times are if they progress well and reach their potential as prospects. A bunch of them won't do that and will end up never making it past AA or AAA. No way of knowing which guys will fall into which category.

But there's a lot of quality talent in the system, and they should be able to add a decent amount over the next two years. If we assume Crawford is still a prospect, then SoxProspects projects 19 prospects making their arrival to Boston by the end of 2024. I think that's optimistic - we won't see that number unless they're getting a cup of coffee. But still, it's reasonable to think that we are on the precipice of the Sox' farm system churning out legit MLB-ready talent on an annual basis.

If THAT is true, then the front office has to think about how competitive this team can be in light of that. The downside is that prospects making it to the majors generally aren't very good right away. Or at least they aren't as good as they will be within a few years of breaking into the majors. So a team with a lot of young players likely will need a lot of help. Fortunately, the upside is that they still have potential to grow into, and they're CHEAP. Which means they can fill in with high priced players elsewhere.

Which means....

Sign Raffy to whatever contract is needed (and not a penny more) to keep him here for the next 8 years or so. He's an absolute stud and they need a guy like that to anchor things.

 

[IpswichSox]

On Casas, I think if he's called up before like the third week in August (I'm forgetting the exact date), he would lose his rookie eligibility for 2023. Under the new CBA, a top-three ROY finisher yields the team an additional draft pick. So that coupled with Casas still needing ABs after missing time and the team generally not contending, I don't think it's likely we would see Casas on the major league roster until after that deadline, at the earliest.

 

[bsj]

If Smith is the "MLB ready" return, I darn well want a top level prospect too. Vientos? Lee? I dont expect one of their truly elite guys but someone in the 5-8 range at the very least

Any chance if we included Vazquez we could get Alvarez? I'd do that in a heartbeat.

NM- I didn't realize Alvarez is considered the top prospect in ALL of baseball

 

[Yaz4Ever]

If Smith is the "MLB ready" return, I darn well want a top level prospect too. Vientos? Lee? I dont expect one of their truly elite guys but someone in the 5-8 range at the very least

Any chance if we included Vazquez we could get Alvarez? I'd do that in a heartbeat.

NM- I didn't realize Alvarez is considered the top prospect in ALL of baseball

Francisco Alvarez? I thought you originally meant Yordan Alvarez - read Houston was interested in Vaz earlier today

 

[E5 Yaz]

Francisco Alvarez? I thought you originally meant Yordan Alvarez - read Houston was interested in Vaz earlier today

Honestly ... how long did you actually think Yordan Alvarez?

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Honestly ... how long did you actually think Yordan Alvarez?

thought that's why he said nvm ... have FAR more faith in bsj than to think he was being serious lol ... I'd be happy to get Vientos and Alex Ramirez, if possible.

 

[chawson]

Any idea why Smith has fared so poorly last couple of seasons? He looked like a breakout candidate during 2019-2020. Doesn't seem to have any huge L/R splits either. In any event, Smith plus a decent prospect, and maybe some A ball flier is probably a deal I do for JDM.

I think it's mostly about lack of plate appearances, which dried up with Pete Alonso's emergence at first base, a glut of better defensive outfielders on the roster and no DH until this year. Here's a story from last month quoting J.D. Davis empathizing with Smith not getting consistent PAs with the Mets, basically hoping he gets traded somewhere he'd be appreciated.

Beyond that, he's a hitter who's been sharply affected by advance defensive positioning, which will be banned next year. He's been shifted on in about two-thirds of his PAs in 2021-22, hitting .312 wOBA when defenses are not in the shift and .271 wOBA when they are.

Lastly, it looks like CitiField has never been a great park for him. He's had better numbers away from New York in every season except this short '22. The Mets installing a humidor in 2021 may have been a factor, but then again there are humidors everywhere now.

I could come around on a trade for Dominic Smith, but wish he'd come with more than two years of (rather pricey) control. If we get him, I'd see it as another attempt to correct the error of the Trey Ball draft -- the Sox will have acquired three first-round picks in 2013 picked after Trey Ball (Arroyo, Renfroe, Smith).

 

[OCD SS]

I'm wondering if Chaim will follow Cashman's lead a bit in using financial flexibility (after this season) to try to take on some bad teams' heftier contracts attached to still-useful players. IIRC Cash has done quite a bit of that, and in taking on the $ never really had to empty the cupboard of top prospects.

The new CBA has made this more difficult: part of taking on a bad contract was the bonus of absorbing backloaded dollars against the contract’s AAV, but the new team will now pay the AAV on the remaining salary. I’m not sure who wanted this provision, but it should be a minor speed bump to player movement.

 

[YTF]

I don't know how the Sox see this, but here's what SoxProspects says about the arrival time of their top farmhands...

SS Mayer - late 2024
1b Casas - 2023 (it was 2022 but the injury impacted that obviously)
P Bello - 2023
2b Yorke - mid 2024
P Walter - late 2023
P Mata - mid 2024
CF Bleis - 2026
CF/SS Rafaela - 2024
P Winckowski - 2023
P Murphy - mid 2023
P Seabold - 2023
IF Paulino - late 2025
P Gonzalez - mid 2025
3b Jordan - mid 2025
SS Lugo - mid 2024
P Groome - mid 2023
3b Binelas - 2024
C Wong - 2023
C Hickey - 2025
P Ward - 2024
SS Downs - 2023
CF Jimenez - late 2024
P Crawford - 2022 (he's already here)
IF/OF McDonough - late 2024
SS/2b Bonaci - late 2025
P German - mid 2023
IF/OF Koss - 2024

Or to look at it by arrival time:

Here - Crawford
2023 - P Bello, P Seabold, 1b Casas, SS Downs, Wong
mid 2023 - P Murphy, P Groome, P German
late 2023 - P Walter
2024 - CF/SS Rafaela, 3b Binelas, P Ward, IF/OF Koss
mid 2024 - 2b Yorke, SS Lugo
late 2024 - SS Mayer, CF Jimenez, IF/OF McDonough
2025 - C Hickey
mid 2025 - P Gonzalez, 3b Jordan
late 2025 - IF Paulino, SS/2b Bonaci
2026 - CF Bleis

And this doesn't include any of their 2022 draft picks.

Of course, there's no way of knowing who will actually make it to the majors. These projected arrival times are if they progress well and reach their potential as prospects. A bunch of them won't do that and will end up never making it past AA or AAA. No way of knowing which guys will fall into which category.

But there's a lot of quality talent in the system, and they should be able to add a decent amount over the next two years. If we assume Crawford is still a prospect, then SoxProspects projects 19 prospects making their arrival to Boston by the end of 2024. I think that's optimistic - we won't see that number unless they're getting a cup of coffee. But still, it's reasonable to think that we are on the precipice of the Sox' farm system churning out legit MLB-ready talent on an annual basis.

If THAT is true, then the front office has to think about how competitive this team can be in light of that. The downside is that prospects making it to the majors generally aren't very good right away. Or at least they aren't as good as they will be within a few years of breaking into the majors. So a team with a lot of young players likely will need a lot of help. Fortunately, the upside is that they still have potential to grow into, and they're CHEAP. Which means they can fill in with high priced players elsewhere.

Which means....

Sign Raffy to whatever contract is needed (and not a penny more) to keep him here for the next 8 years or so. He's an absolute stud and they need a guy like that to anchor things.

We often read or hear about concerns for bringing young players up too early. Most of the concerns seem to be over players losing confidence in themselves and their abilities if the are rushed and over matched. Boston's obviously been forced to press certain players into service earlier than they would have liked. I wonder if guys like Bello, Winckowski and Downs might benefit from some of their struggles. I'm sure it's probably dependent on the individual player, but there has to be some value of seeing these struggles and knowing what work, adjustments and improvements lie ahead of you.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I don't know how the Sox see this, but here's what SoxProspects says about the arrival time of their top farmhands...

SS Mayer - late 2024
1b Casas - 2023 (it was 2022 but the injury impacted that obviously)
P Bello - 2023
2b Yorke - mid 2024
P Walter - late 2023
P Mata - mid 2024
CF Bleis - 2026
CF/SS Rafaela - 2024
P Winckowski - 2023
P Murphy - mid 2023
P Seabold - 2023
IF Paulino - late 2025
P Gonzalez - mid 2025
3b Jordan - mid 2025
SS Lugo - mid 2024
P Groome - mid 2023
3b Binelas - 2024
C Wong - 2023
C Hickey - 2025
P Ward - 2024
SS Downs - 2023
CF Jimenez - late 2024
P Crawford - 2022 (he's already here)
IF/OF McDonough - late 2024
SS/2b Bonaci - late 2025
P German - mid 2023
IF/OF Koss - 2024

Or to look at it by arrival time:

Here - Crawford
2023 - P Bello, P Seabold, 1b Casas, SS Downs, Wong
mid 2023 - P Murphy, P Groome, P German
late 2023 - P Walter
2024 - CF/SS Rafaela, 3b Binelas, P Ward, IF/OF Koss
mid 2024 - 2b Yorke, SS Lugo
late 2024 - SS Mayer, CF Jimenez, IF/OF McDonough
2025 - C Hickey
mid 2025 - P Gonzalez, 3b Jordan
late 2025 - IF Paulino, SS/2b Bonaci
2026 - CF Bleis

And this doesn't include any of their 2022 draft picks.

Of course, there's no way of knowing who will actually make it to the majors. These projected arrival times are if they progress well and reach their potential as prospects. A bunch of them won't do that and will end up never making it past AA or AAA. No way of knowing which guys will fall into which category.

But there's a lot of quality talent in the system, and they should be able to add a decent amount over the next two years. If we assume Crawford is still a prospect, then SoxProspects projects 19 prospects making their arrival to Boston by the end of 2024. I think that's optimistic - we won't see that number unless they're getting a cup of coffee. But still, it's reasonable to think that we are on the precipice of the Sox' farm system churning out legit MLB-ready talent on an annual basis.

If THAT is true, then the front office has to think about how competitive this team can be in light of that. The downside is that prospects making it to the majors generally aren't very good right away. Or at least they aren't as good as they will be within a few years of breaking into the majors. So a team with a lot of young players likely will need a lot of help. Fortunately, the upside is that they still have potential to grow into, and they're CHEAP. Which means they can fill in with high priced players elsewhere.

Which means....

Sign Raffy to whatever contract is needed (and not a penny more) to keep him here for the next 8 years or so. He's an absolute stud and they need a guy like that to anchor things.

You missed Winckowski in the here section.

FWIW, I think ETA includes "cup of coffee" and trades. I don't know how many players make their debut in an average year though. I'd bet at least 90% of the players you named make the Majors in some capacity at some point barring injury.

I count 7 farmhands this year who have played for Boston. Duran, Downs, Wong, Bello, Winckowski, Crawford, Seabold. That list will probably expand a little and I may have missed someone. There could be former sox farmhands with prospect status playing on other teams that I'm not aware of as well. I don't feel like looking.

Anyway, most of the talent close to ready in the farm is of the pitching variety and we are seeing some of it right now. Hopefully Crawford and Winckowki show enough that the Sox can count on them as back end starters. If they are less of a question mark (obviously still question marks though), easing in pitchers like Mata, Walter and Bello will be less of an issue.

No matter how you look at it, 2023 is going to be the year of the pitcher... one way or another. The Sox will have to decide to give some of these young guys a chance or trade them.

Just looking at your list, in 2023 the Sox will have Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Mata, Murphy, Groome, Walter, German and probably Politi who isn't on your list.

That's 8 or 9 pitchers with 7 of them currently being starters with 5 of them already on the 40 man. The other 4 will have to be added to the 40 after this season... so all 9 are going to be on the 40. I'm guessing Bello, Winck and Crawford stick as starters while the others move to the pen.

I hope they don't go into 2023 with like 24 pitchers on the 40. The lack of positional player depth this year has been a killer. On the flip side, the pitching has mostly held up considering all the injuries.

They should be looking to trade some pitching prospects for some positional prospects but teams don't really trade prospects for prospects.

---

With that said, I wonder what kind of package the Sox could get if they packaged one of those 7 starters alongside JDM. Say JDM + Winckowski. Do teams ever make deals like that? Adding a prospect/cost controlled player to a rental to get a better prospect back?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

NM- I didn't realize Alvarez is considered the top prospect in ALL of baseball

Alvarez is 20 years old and already in AAA. Tore the cover off the ball in AA. He's had mixed results in AAA so far (.173/.366/.423) but that's largely due to a .194 BAbip. Guy is putting up close to an .800 OPS with a BAbip under .200.

If I were to wager a guess, he's going to be special.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The pitching “has mostly held up” strikes me as pretty false- seeing how the team just went a month without a starter winning a game. They have the second worst ERA in the league.

I don’t think attaching a guy like Winckowski to JD makes much sense- the kinds of teams that have interest in those two players seem unlikely to overlap much.

Sox pitching depth looks like a lot of guys who could be back of the rotation starters or relievers; it’s really hard to see a top of the rotation guy unless Bello develops. Hopefully Houck and Whitlock as well; but I feel like we have no better idea if that can happen now than we did a year ago.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

This has really felt more dragged out than usual. I know it's just an extra two days and the season even started late so not sure why it feels that way, but this has been hanging over the club for well over a month. Maybe there's just more coverage these days.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

The new CBA has made this more difficult: part of taking on a bad contract was the bonus of absorbing backloaded dollars against the contract’s AAV, but the new team will now pay the AAV on the remaining salary. I’m not sure who wanted this provision, but it should be a minor speed bump to player movement.

Ah, interesting. This along with the rookie promotion rule are a couple facets of the new CBA that may have some unintended consequences.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

It would be a dream to snag Alvarez from the Mets, but the chance of that happening is slim. I'd love for them to really try and squeeze them though. J.D., Vaz, Houck, Duran. Probably still not enough.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Alvarez is 20 years old and already in AAA. Tore the cover off the ball in AA. He's had mixed results in AAA so far (.173/.366/.423) but that's largely due to a .194 BAbip. Guy is putting up close to an .800 OPS with a BAbip under .200.

If I were to wager a guess, he's going to be special.

Agreed. His plate discipline is really good and I always love prospects who demonstrate that in upper levels of minors at a young age. He’s a keeper.