Red Sox starting pitching going forward

[dcmissle]

I don't think anyone is saying it isn't important, just that it isn't necessary. Look at the mid to late nineties Indians teams. They made the world series twice. If they'd had an ace they might have won one.

Yes. And I don't think the likes of Beane and Dombrowski have attained their heights by learning the wrong lessons.

The RS have established the footprint this century, and they have my benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. I don't imagine with the investments in Cespedes and the like that they plan on bringing knives to gunfights. Right now we don't have a legit #2.

 

[DJnVa]

Whatever we do, they need to keep Buchholz:  http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/11/with-red-sox-bat-preparation-gripping-tale/eMfe7iy0X4GztsuWX5GVDN/story.html
 

If one of the Sox players needs a new grip, Clay Buchholz is the man to see. The righthanded pitcher is so adept at wrapping bats with just the right amount of tension and thickness that hitters seek him out.
 
“It started last season,” said Buchholz. “I saw Nap let a bat slip and I found some of those Lizard Skin grips and wrapped one of his bats and gave it to him. He went deep the next day.
“Then he gave me seven bats the next day and said, ‘Wrap these for me.’ That’s how it started.”
 
Buchholz placed an order with Lizard Skins late last season. When Barker noticed, he sent extras along for free. Buchholz since has spoken to Barker about the correct technique and which kind of tape might suit a certain player.
 
“They all have preferences,” said Buchholz. “Jonny Gomes liked it super, super tight. I did a bunch of his bats. Nap and David, I know how they like their bats. It’s something fun to do. Let’s face it, we have a lot of time in our hands in this sport.”

 

[TomRicardo]

No one wins a World Series without good pitchers/pitchers pitching well. 

 
The 96 Yankees just laugh and laugh at you

 

[Super Nomario]

Whatever we do, they need to keep Buchholz:  http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/11/with-red-sox-bat-preparation-gripping-tale/eMfe7iy0X4GztsuWX5GVDN/story.html
 

This just tells me we can blame our hitting woes on Buchholz, too.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
The 96 Yankees just laugh and laugh at you

 
The 2009 Yankees are giggling a bit, too. They got a 4.48 ERA from their starters in the regular season, and in the WS the only starter who pitched respectably was Sabathia.
 
Also the 2005 White Sox had a pretty mediocre starting rotation, though they outperformed their FIP pretty spectacularly.
 
The 1992-93 Blue Jays were not exactly stocked with immortal arms (at least, not immortal arms in their prime), though young Juan Guzman didn't suck. They weren't bad rotations, but without looking I would wager that in either of those years you could have found a half-dozen better ones in the AL.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Cropped from B.R. - 
 
1996 Yankees: Pettitte, Rogers, Gooden & Key all with 170+ innings. Pettitte the anchor at 221 with an ERA+ of 129. Wetteland the relief ace with 43 saves.
 
2009 Yankees: Sabathia, Burnett, & Pettitte all with 190+ innings. Sabathia the anchor at 230 with an ERA+ of 137. Rivera the relief ace with 44 saves.
 
2005 White Sox: Buehrle, Garcia, Garland & Contreras all with 200+ innings. Buehrle the anchor at 236 with an ERA+ of 144. Hermanson the relief ace with 34 saves.
 
1992 Jays: Morris, Key, Guzman & Stottlemyre all with 175+ innings. Morris the anchor at 240 with an ERA+ of 101 (Guzman 180 innings / 154). Henke the relief ace with 34 saves.
 
I would argue that Pettitte, Sabathia, Buehrle (and maybe Garland), Morris and Guzman  could be classified as "aces". That 2005 White Sox pitching staff had 4 starters pitch 200+ innings, which is remarkable.
 
Not that it matters, but I'm pushing my contention that eating (quality) innings is as important to an "ace" as anything.

 

[sdiaz1]

My 2000 Hyundai accent has cup holders. Therefore it could be "classified" as a luxury sedan.  Of the four rotations that you listed there was only one guy there who ever was a legitimate "ace" and a spattering of 5 number two or three starters. We are not exactly talking about last season's Detroit Tigers here.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Cropped from B.R. - 
 
1992 Jays: Morris, Key, Guzman & Stottlemyre all with 175+ innings. Morris the anchor at 240 with an ERA+ of 101 (Guzman 180 innings / 154). Henke the relief ace with 34 saves.
 

 
But they got David Cone in a waiver deal (how'd he clear?), and he was pretty much at his peak at that point.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

My 2000 Hyundai accent has cup holders. Therefore it could be "classified" as a luxury sedan.  Of the four rotations that you listed there was only one guy there who ever was a legitimate "ace" and a spattering of 5 number two or three starters. We are not exactly talking about last season's Detroit Tigers here.

 
 
I guess that would depend on whether or not you were able to get 100,000 miles/year out of the car...and whether or not the cup holders were elegant.

 

[Plympton91]

My 2000 Hyundai accent has cup holders. Therefore it could be "classified" as a luxury sedan.  Of the four rotations that you listed there was only one guy there who ever was a legitimate "ace" and a spattering of 5 number two or three starters. We are not exactly talking about last season's Detroit Tigers here.

The Red Sox will need some combination of good luck and free agent acquisitions to even come close to any of those rotations, which represent among the least formidable rotations to win a World Series. They've already finished last twice this decade, let's not make it three.

 

[rodderick]

The Red Sox will need some combination of good luck and free agent acquisitions to even come close to any of those rotations, which represent among the least formidable rotations to win a World Series. They've already finished last twice this decade, let's not make it three.

 
They've finished last once in the last 10 years, this season isn't over yet. Oh, they've also won the World Series three times in that timeframe, so I don't get the snark. Let's see how the chips fall before complaining.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Cropped from B.R. - 
 
1996 Yankees: Pettitte, Rogers, Gooden & Key all with 170+ innings. Pettitte the anchor at 221 with an ERA+ of 129. Wetteland the relief ace with 43 saves.
 
2009 Yankees: Sabathia, Burnett, & Pettitte all with 190+ innings. Sabathia the anchor at 230 with an ERA+ of 137. Rivera the relief ace with 44 saves.
 
2005 White Sox: Buehrle, Garcia, Garland & Contreras all with 200+ innings. Buehrle the anchor at 236 with an ERA+ of 144. Hermanson the relief ace with 34 saves.
 
1992 Jays: Morris, Key, Guzman & Stottlemyre all with 175+ innings. Morris the anchor at 240 with an ERA+ of 101 (Guzman 180 innings / 154). Henke the relief ace with 34 saves.
 
I would argue that Pettitte, Sabathia, Buehrle (and maybe Garland), Morris and Guzman  could be classified as "aces". That 2005 White Sox pitching staff had 4 starters pitch 200+ innings, which is remarkable.
 
Not that it matters, but I'm pushing my contention that eating (quality) innings is as important to an "ace" as anything.

 
Sorry, when BMHH said "good pitchers/pitchers pitching well," I assumed he meant more than one guy per rotation, and I thought by "pitching well" he meant more than just eating average-ish innings.
 
Sure, all of those teams had at least one significantly better-than-average pitcher--but all of them also had only one. It is true that Garland in 2005 had the best season of his mediocre career, but even then he was just a little better than average by FIP- and xFIP-. Morris's corpse was barely average in 1992. Likewise Pettitte and Burnett in 2009.
 
It's not that any of these rotations were bad--they just weren't especially good.

 

[TomRicardo]

The Red Sox will need some combination of good luck and free agent acquisitions to even come close to any of those rotations, which represent among the least formidable rotations to win a World Series. They've already finished last twice this decade, let's not make it three.

 
This is what being dead wrong looks like.  

 

[Rasputin]

 
This is what being dead wrong looks like.  

 
Well, "some combination of" is rather vague. If the Sox rotation stays pretty healthy next year, it will qualify just because staying healthy is pretty lucky.
 
I don' think it's going to take moving heaven and earth to have a very good 2015 rotation.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The ace thing is tough given that Pedro was your classic ace (though declining) but had a bad postseason in 2004. Lester was a very good pitcher up until 2010, but his 2013 and 2012 weren't very good at all (which factors in a ton to the preseason negotiations which fans are now criticizing). Beckett was good across the board in 2007, but his stint in Boston culminated in a 110 ERA+. They were helped out a ton in 2004 by Derek Lowe, who wasn't very good at all in 2003 and 2004. In 2007, it didn't hurt that an aforementioned ace was absolutely horrific in the 2007 ALCS. In the 2013 ALCS, they went against three pitchers who pitched like aces in the regular season, and the ALCS, but they came out ahead led by two starters with a 109 and 116 ERA+. 
 
Out of the Red Sox World Series runs, I'd only call Curt Schilling in 2004 an ace, though Beckett pitched like it in 2007, and Schilling was quite alright that postseason. 
 
While hindsight is great in explaining that teams won with aces, it looks like the last Cy Young winner (which I know is a subjective measure, perhaps a bit less so than defining an "ace") to win the World Series was Guidry in 1978; the last pitcher WAR leader to win was Beckett in 2007 (and before that Randy Johnson in 2001); over the past decade there's not a real pattern of teams winning behind aces only, and going back to 2001 the Diamondbacks don't need 7 games with any bullpen depth at all.
 
Just looking at last year's team, having a well-rounded club that has a solid bullpen, and a decent rotation can be good enough. Of course they need good luck; what Red Sox squad since 1918 hasn't won without it, and what team since, perhaps, the 1998 Yankees has won without it? I would rather they have some pitchers who are subjectively known as aces, but if they are going to sacrifice depth chasing "aces", I am not sure if it is necessarily the right path to take. It's certainly debatable that the pitchers they have in the organization at this juncture aren't enough, but the "ace" thing is a bit of a red herring. You only have to go back to the 2013 Red Sox, or the 2012 Giants, or 2011 Cardinals, and so on, to see that it's possible to win without a pitcher putting up a season even resembling an ace.

 

[snowmanny]

Pedro did not have close to an ace level post-season in 2004 but it's hard to call it "bad."  He had a 3.46 ERA in four starts. 

 

[Plympton91]

Why are we focusing only on the world series? Almost everyone here agrees that the 8 teams that make it to the Division Series have about equal chances of wining the post-season tournament championship. The focus should be on making the playoffs, or given the realities of the postseason TV gimmickry added in recent years, winning the Division, specifically the AL East. Also, since we're discussing building a team for next season, it seems like the projected quality is more relevant than revealed quality.

Since the Yankees have won the AL East in what still seems like 22 of the past 15 years, in what fraction of those seasons did they not have at least one, and probably 2 or 3, pitchers who were preseason consensus picks to finish among the top 30 by whatever metric you deem most appropriate to account for starting pitching quality? That's the metric by which to judge the pitching staff the Red Sox plan to build.

 

[Rasputin]

Why are we focusing only on the world series? Almost everyone here agrees that the 8 teams that make it to the Division Series have about equal chances of wining the post-season tournament championship. The focus should be on making the playoffs, or given the realities of the postseason TV gimmickry added in recent years, winning the Division, specifically the AL East. Also, since we're discussing building a team for next season, it seems like the projected quality is more relevant than revealed quality.

Since the Yankees have won the AL East in what still seems like 22 of the past 15 years, in what fraction of those seasons did they not have at least one, and probably 2 or 3, pitchers who were preseason consensus picks to finish among the top 30 by whatever metric you deem most appropriate to account for starting pitching quality? That's the metric by which to judge the pitching staff the Red Sox plan to build.

 
I don't think I want to make roster decisions based on what the consensus is. There is almost no chance that RDLR is going to be a consensus top thirty in any metric but he's probably going to be a pretty damn good pitcher in 2015.
 
If we do end up bringing back Lester and bringing in someone else like Hamels or Shields, I think we've got a good chance to have an outstanding rotation.

 

[Plympton91]

If we do end up bringing back Lester and bringing in someone else like Hamels or Shields, I think we've got a good chance to have an outstanding rotation.

Yeah, if they do that I'd be stoked. I'll believe Lester's coming back when there's a press conference.

 

[BornToRun]

Yeah, if they do that I'd be stoked. I'll believe Lester's coming back when there's a press conference.

I feel like Lester coming back is a serious possibility. I also feel that signing him and trading for Latos will be a certifiable pants-off worthy occurrence.