Red Sox Starting Pitching 2020

[rhswanzey]

MLBTR is projecting Edro's arb salary at $9.5M. Steamer is projecting his WAR at 2.8. Who could we get for significantly less money who would be at least an even bet to produce even half as much value? I mean, for the luvva Pete, MLBTR is predicting 1/$11M for Rick Porcello, and 1/$6M deals for Ivan Nova and Michael Wacha. You really want to save $3M by exchanging Rodriguez for Nova?

I think you've just successfully argued that two arb years of this pitcher should have a whole hell of a lot of market value.

It's not simply about reducing salary, it's about reducing as much salary as you can while reducing projected win totals as little as you can. Edro is just not a good trim candidate in that regard.

I for one am curious as to ownership's changing stance on this issue, as it's not clear what they believe and what they want the league to believe. These are probably two different things. We don't really know what is going to happen this offseason.

I'm not saying I am eager to dump Rodriguez; I'm saying that Cole/Strasburg are going to cost three to four times ERod's AAV, and require at least 4-6 guaranteed years. EdRo is season by season at a bargain, if he really is a 4 WAR pitcher. He might not get it, but he's an ask of the Corbin 6/140 if he were a FA now, right?

Then, you immediately move to pitchers who have the QO slapped on them, like Wheeler and Odorizzi and Bumgarner, who require twice ERod's AAV for probably three or four guaranteed years, and might not even be better than him going forward.

You don't think we could get a hell of a trade package for him? How large of a gap between arb2/arb3 Realmuto (last winter) and arb2/arb3 Rodriguez?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

You don't think we could get a hell of a trade package for him? How large of a gap between arb2/arb3 Realmuto (last winter) and arb2/arb3 Rodriguez?

Of course we could get a hell of a trade package for him. Or at least, a very solid trade package. And in terms of long-term team building, i.e., if we're punting 2020 and blowing things up, that might even make sense. I'm saying that if the goal is getting under the LT threshold without punting 2020, trading Rodriguez does not seem strategically optimal for that.

 

[nvalvo]

According to Rob Bradford, Chris Sale has seen Dr. Andrews and has been approved to start throwing.

 

[Teachdad46]

From my perspective, it seems like the best course of action is to hope those guys rebound. They are under contract, so you can't get rid of them without eating significant salary (both due to uncertainty, and the fact that many teams will not pay $30 million for a starter - even if they were a guaranteed Cy Young winner). If you get rid of them, you still have to replace them with somebody - and that somebody costs resources as well.

So, if the Sox were to trade one of them for a bucket of baseballs and eat $15 million/year of their salary, and then go out and sign somebody for $15 million, is there that much of a chance that that $15 million/year pitcher is any better?

Agreed. If one of the "givens" is that they need to add some depth to their rotation, then why are so many clamoring for them to unload any of their SPs? I think they ought to re-sign Porky with an incentive-laden contract and then let Chaim find some SP value in his Magic Hat.