I'm thrilled. Big game pitcher. He was always the guy I hoped they could get this off season. The only thing I wish was that this was for two years.
Red Sox sign Walker Buehler
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
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Multiple years was probably some sort of club option or vesting year. Buehler would have no interest in either. If he shows hes healthy, hes going to get paid, if he isnt then he wouldnt get the vest or the option picked up.
Yeah, think it’s clear that he likely didn’t even get Severino or Manaea offers. Makes sense. Sample size of competence was very small last year.
If he reached the level he was at in the playoffs, which was solid I guess? (excellent but SSS), would you say that the injury is behind him, or is there still some guesswork to how he will feel under a full workload? I.e., does the UCL still struggle to stay in its proper place after two surgeries?
I appreciate this move because they still have all their SP money. They can spend on the Crochet extension, now or later, they can extend Buehler if both parties want, or they can hold back for next winter and go after Framber. Burnes would be nice but he is far from the only option.
I hope this is correct. At the beginning of this offseason Breslow said that they did a good job of identifying additions last year but did not pursue them with the conviction needed.
They were attached to both Flaherty and Lugo but didn’t sign either due to most likely smaller contractual issues.
If you believe you can fix Walker Buehler… go sign him.
Kutter's lack of use due to success/health from the TOP5, is the best outcome possible for the Sox & what we're all hoping for.
The rest of MLB can see Crawford's IP/WHIP last year & will notice he tired during the last half of the season. If several teams desperate for SP want to offer trade packages in June or July because Kutter is rested, capable of starting, cheap & under contract control for the next 3.5 years, let the bidding commence.
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The past two years Kutter Crawford gave the Sox 313 innings of 104 ERA+, so hopefully the guy they paid 20 million to take starts from him gives us something meaningfully better than that.
Again, there’s zero evidence that Buehler is taking starts away from Crawford. It’s December. A theoretical rotation is meaningless.
Does anyone know the $ value of a QO pick? If we sign Buehler for 20 mil and get a QO pick for him next year (let’s make up a value of $10mil for a QO out of my ass until someone posts a real #), then that pick has a lot of value. If you land guys like QO picks Roman Anthony and/or Campbell, then obviously trying to line up FAs you can get a QO pick for in a year or 2 will bring back a TON of value and make paying someone 20 mil an easy decision. Especially if you trust your amateur scouting ability.
While true -- because it's ALL theoretical in December -- I think we can agree that that's the most likely scenario, all other things being equal. I live in a world of probabilities. I suspect that if everyone is healthy come April 1, Crawford is probably the odd man out. Besides, we gotta talk about something! And kvetching about the future is better than kvetching about the past.
I’m going to make a new thread on this topic, but excluding the draft and international signings, this is the ninth starting pitcher Breslow has added the system in his 14 months on the job.
While true -- because it's ALL theoretical in December -- I think we can agree that that's the most likely scenario, all other things being equal. I live in a world of probabilities. I suspect that if everyone is healthy come April 1, Crawford is probably the odd man out. Besides, we gotta talk about something! And kvetching about the future is better than kvetching about the past.
In your probability world - what are the odds that the entire rotation is healthy come the start of the year?
That's going to depend on where the QO picks are which differs by case, but none of the compensation picks are really high in the draft. Just for example, the highest pick I see from last year was the Twins getting #33 for losing Sonny Gray to the Cardinals. The Twins took Kyle DeBarge and paid him a 2.4 million dollar bonus.
Sean Casey & Mark DeRosa on MLB Tonight both said you need 7-8 good starters on your team in order to succeed these days and go deep in the playoffs. They said the Dodgers don’t go all the way unless they had that big stable of SP.
Red Sox have NOWHERE near “too many SP” at this point.
Red Sox have NOWHERE near “too many SP” at this point.
Pivetta's will be in the 70's but these picks matter. Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are both comp picks for Eddy Rodriguez and Xander, respectively.
But the signing bonus is nowhere near the worth of the pick (as I’m sure you know). I guess we could figure out what pick we get for Pivetta and then figure out the value of that specific pick when the time comes. I feel like Fangraphs did an article on those values…
If each of the five projected members of the rotation has an 87% chance of being healthy, the probability of all five being healthy when the year begins is under 50%.
Obviously, this is just math without any actual predictions around the health of those SPs, but maybe it's helpful to see the importance of SP depth.
There's been a lot of talk about Buehler's terrible regular season, but in looking at his game logs you can see that 3 of his 5 September were pretty good. There were 2 stinkers in there and his first post season start was a dog. but when you look at the total of his work in September and Octocber he appears to have regained some of his old form as the season closed out.
Buehler's 2024 game logs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=buehlwa01&t=p&year=2024
Buehler's 2024 game logs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=buehlwa01&t=p&year=2024
Oh yeah absolutely. I have no idea what those picks are worth and frankly the abstraction is probably close to useless considering how many picks just never make it.
Here's an explanation of when the QO pick will happen within the draft:
Compensation for losing players who reject their QO
If a team gives a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for Draft pick compensation in the next year’s MLB Draft.
• Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player’s contract doesn’t matter in this case.
• Revenue-sharing recipients: If the team that loses the player is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection – if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million – will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
• All other teams: If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player’s contract doesn’t matter in this case.
Like standard Draft picks, compensatory picks in a given tier are ordered in accordance with the previous season’s standings. If a team with MLB’s worst record and a team with a .500 record both lose a free agent that signs for more than $50 million, the team with the worse record would receive the higher of the two compensatory picks.
Like April 1 start of the year? I don't think Crawford's health is any more or less likely than any other starter's.
Amen to that.
Last year, Crawford was supposed to be the sixth starter, after Houck, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Whitlock. Not only was Crawford in the rotation at the start of the year, but Bernardino (opener), Criswell, Winckowski and Anderson all were needed to start in April.
The recent MLB report on pitching injuries shows that injuries to pitchers from spring training to opening day have been rising significantly over the past several years. Last year, it looks like about 112 pitchers got put on IL during that period. That's about 3.7 pitchers per team. Very reasonable to expect one or more members of the Sox projected rotation to be put on IL between the start of spring training and the start of the season.
Let's maybe tap the brakes on the "trade Crawford" train.
This is fine, and we should get used to it. The front office seams very, very clear they're not going to give big contracts to pitchers over 30, so we're pretty much stuck with whatever we can develop and/or take for and then one year fliers on guys with something to prove. What going to hurt is that when we do develop someone (or trade) and he's great, they'll probably let him walk unless he's taking a discount in return for having arb years bought out.
Hard not to love having six legitimate starters with Priester, Fitts and Criswell backing them up in AAA.
Buehler is the guy I was really hoping they’d get. There’s no commitment if they end up with five guys clearly better, plus they keep all their draft picks, plus they get an extra pick when Pivetta signs elsewhere. And if he’s good (and he could be really good), they’ll get another extra pick when he leaves. All of these extra bites at restocking the farm makes the Crochet trade even more palatable than it already was.
Another reason I really love this signing is that it makes Casas staying put much more likely. I really think moving that OBP/SLG combo (and the rare baseball player who’s an actually entertaining personality) would be a huge mistake.
Buehler is the guy I was really hoping they’d get. There’s no commitment if they end up with five guys clearly better, plus they keep all their draft picks, plus they get an extra pick when Pivetta signs elsewhere. And if he’s good (and he could be really good), they’ll get another extra pick when he leaves. All of these extra bites at restocking the farm makes the Crochet trade even more palatable than it already was.
Another reason I really love this signing is that it makes Casas staying put much more likely. I really think moving that OBP/SLG combo (and the rare baseball player who’s an actually entertaining personality) would be a huge mistake.
I'm seeing the three positions as
A) The Red Sox don't have enough depth
B) The Red Sox have sufficient 2025 rotation depth with Kutter Crawford heading a group that includes Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Winckowski, Penrod, Dobbins, Murphy, Fulmer and Sandlin (and a rehabbing Sandoval)
C) The Red Sox have sufficient 2025 rotation depth without Kutter Crawford heading a group that includes Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Winckowski, Penrod, Dobbins, Murphy, Fulmer and Sandlin (and a rehabbing Sandoval)
I could be wrong about this, but C is where I'm at. I don't have any problem with accumulating depth pieces. I think we have them. The gap between Crawford taking those starts and one or more of those listed isn't very large.
Put another way, it's smaller — theoretically — than the gap between what Crawford might fetch in a trade (say for a catcher) and what we currently have. Whether there's another team that lines up with us for such a trade, who knows.
I think I'd feel differently if I didn't have the sense that there are more trades coming. There are a few redundancies on the roster in the infield and outfield (specifically 2B and RF), and we seem likely to create more redundancies if we acquire another hitter in FA.
In my opinion, these offseason acquisitions give them a good shot at the playoffs this year. The window is now partially open. I think that is all they were willing to do this year anyway. Especially with the way the free-agent pitching market is trending.
What are we trading Crawford for?
I ask because I don't really see positions that can be improved by whatever we get for Crawford. Maybe we can get a better catcher than Wong, but that seems unlikely because there aren't that many good catchers and as a result, they're pretty expensive. We could probably get a useful reliever, but Crawford would most likely be a useful reliever himself.
I think we're better off holding onto all of our depth and revisiting the question at the trade deadline.
I ask because I don't really see positions that can be improved by whatever we get for Crawford. Maybe we can get a better catcher than Wong, but that seems unlikely because there aren't that many good catchers and as a result, they're pretty expensive. We could probably get a useful reliever, but Crawford would most likely be a useful reliever himself.
I think we're better off holding onto all of our depth and revisiting the question at the trade deadline.
I'm really hoping for this team to succeed, not just for the sake of succeeding but for generating some real stability in the FO and giving Breslow and Bailey and other pitching guys they have hired some time to work their expected magic with pitchers up and down the organization. Outside of the Montgomery pick (a no-brainer), Breslow bucked Bloom's trend and spent most of the team's picks on pitching.
I understood Bloom's philosophy on drafting, and understand ownership's philosophy on FA pitching contracts, but it didn't exactly make for the best marriage since it pretty much demands that you can then only acquire pitching via short term make-good deals and position prospect trades as we have seen. There is finally some legitimate young guy depth at Portland and above between Fitts/Priester/Sandlin (all Breslow acquisitions) and Guerrero in the pen (+ the injured Perales), followed by the farther away types led by Monegro.
There's a world where we have no regrets about missing out on the top-of-market over 30 pitchers and feel no need to even engage—but that really demands a strong pitching development program which has been a struggle.
Giolito: 1 TJ + UCL brace in 2024
Crochet: 1 TJ + 150 IP last season, his all-time high, 270% more than any other season
Buehler: 2 TJs
Bello: 162 IP last season, his all-time high
Houck: 178 IP last season, his all-time high, 68% more than any previous season
Crawford:183 IP last season, his all-time high, 42% more than any previous season
I suspect Breslow/Bailey are keeping Kutter around.
I'm fine with the signing but the last time Buehler was a decent pitcher was in 2021. Even pouring over last years games it's hard to see upside. He's not really striking many out, walking more, and at least according to FIP wasn't all that unlucky.
Maybe he bounces back. I prefer this to Giolito, but we're probably lucky if these guys combined give you 30 starts at league average performance.
Maybe he bounces back. I prefer this to Giolito, but we're probably lucky if these guys combined give you 30 starts at league average performance.
Sandoval isn’t going to be a legitimate rotation option until the 2026 season. Coming back from elbow surgery mid-season seems overly optimistic, but if he does it will likely be in a relief role.
I hear this. But, the Fangraphs writeup suggests that he was a notably different pitcher in the postseason (and results back that up, albiet a very SSS). I guess that's the gamble. I'll feel better if we find out that Buehler turned down say, 30 mil over 2 years, for the 1 year payoff and chance to hit the market again.
They did, but it's several years old now, so not sure how accurate these numbers still are
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
It's also hard to say right now, because the hypothetical QO pick the Sox could get depends on if they go over the tax or not this year.
Yes. I would also add that this is what signing someone for future potential rather than past performance is often going to look like. We don't really want them signing people just for their track record; smart money is spent signing players that they project they can get good performance for in the future. And for Breslow and Bailey, that may often look like signing someone whose past performance looks shaky or uneven or simply bad -- if they think they see a path to developing or stabilizing future performance. I like it -- this is a much more interesting story than throwing money at someone like Burnes and just hoping he doesn't age poorly.
I like it, I worry a bit about the opportunity cost; he'll rightfully get a long leash to work through things and there's a real chance he's washed, so hopefully there's a plan in place. I agree I do not think this means someone gets pushed out, quite the opposite. Love they got another arm that can potentially really hit a high ceiling. Terms don't bother me much; if he turns things around things went well and hopefully that gives us an inside track to sign him again--if not, oh well.
I like Flaherty, but I do understand one feeling like he profiles as someone who crashes and burns earlier in a contract that he'll sign.
I like Flaherty, but I do understand one feeling like he profiles as someone who crashes and burns earlier in a contract that he'll sign.
While you're not wrong, I think I watched every one of those starts and even when the line was good he just didn't look right. Just one couch potato impression obviously but his regular season at no point gave me hope for him going forward (for the rest of the season/ playoffs). He was gutting out a lot of those innings. He's got a whole offseason now though, so fingers crossed.
Not behind him, though some never really make it back at all so he's at least going to do better than that subset.
I'm not sure the longest contract for a 2x TJS pitcher, but even with a good year he's probably going to be on 2-3 year prove-it type contracts the rest of his career.
If I was advising him, I would have said to take the longest deal he could get now (rumors are he had multi-year deals?). I guess the $ matters and 1/20 is better than 2/25 or something, but if he had some sort of 3/50-60M y deal now it would be hard to turn down that $ given his history.
A prove it deal sounds nice but a longer team deal for a pitcher who hasn't been good for 3 years with his history.... take the $. Guess we will see in a year how it went, obviously hoping it works out for him
His K rates and contact against #s on the season overall were WAY below his peak. Concerning for sure.
Fangraphs has his avg fastball velo at 95 mph on the year so a little low for him, but not a huge drop from before.
I just love this signing. We needed Crochet and I hope he will be our horse. But Beuhler is our big game pitcher. If we are to win the World Series this year I suspect it will be because at a pivotal moment the ball was in Walker Beuhler’s hand.
He was the guy that trotted out to the bullpen 2 days after he had started, to bail out an empty Dodger bullpen and record the winning out of the WS.
I think Sox fans will fall in love…
He was the guy that trotted out to the bullpen 2 days after he had started, to bail out an empty Dodger bullpen and record the winning out of the WS.
I think Sox fans will fall in love…
Someone should make a list of all the different ways Buehler has been spelled in this thread already. This guy is giving us fits we have seen since the days of Buchholz.
More substantively, isn't there some evidence that the last thing to come back after TJ is control? I can't remember where I heard that.
That would square with his line this year. His highest BB/9 (still only 3.3) other than 8 games his rookie season and the highest HR/9 (1.9).
The stuff is clearly still there when he's on. Seems like consistency is the issue. I'm really hoping he's to this year what Jack Flaherty was to last.
More substantively, isn't there some evidence that the last thing to come back after TJ is control? I can't remember where I heard that.
That would square with his line this year. His highest BB/9 (still only 3.3) other than 8 games his rookie season and the highest HR/9 (1.9).
The stuff is clearly still there when he's on. Seems like consistency is the issue. I'm really hoping he's to this year what Jack Flaherty was to last.
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Edgar Quero, the C for the White Sox. That guy is behind Teel!
Crawford + Bleis + Hamilton. Give them a lot of years.
I like the addition of pitching depth, especially with the pedigree Buehler brings. But one note of caution, as detailed by Eno Sarris: (1) he threw games in the playoffs at Mets and against MFYs on cold nights, which has a demonstrated positive on spin rates; and (2) the location of Shea near the ocean likely generated environmental impacts that helped all the Dodger pitchers in those games.
Walker Buehler's Stuff Plays Up & The October Struggles of Catchers
