Red Sox sign Walker Buehler
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
- Start date
It’s only a waste of resources if the 5 guys in front of Kutter all post 30 starts, which we know, of course, they won’t.
Kutter is also pre arb and has 4 years of control. He’d slide right back in the rotation in 2026.
Top SPs through their age 26 seasons (2018-24)
Buehler at #2, Giolito at #8, and Sandoval at #25.
You get no points for this, but it seems promising. If they believe that it's a first principle that all MLB starting pitchers are highly susceptible to injury, then maybe post-injury pitchers are perhaps safer, or more likely to recover their production, than non- or pre-injury pitchers. (As a matter of strategy, this of course doesn't apply to Giolito, who they did not expect to get TJS, but it may be a point of optimism now.)
Buehler at #2, Giolito at #8, and Sandoval at #25.
You get no points for this, but it seems promising. If they believe that it's a first principle that all MLB starting pitchers are highly susceptible to injury, then maybe post-injury pitchers are perhaps safer, or more likely to recover their production, than non- or pre-injury pitchers. (As a matter of strategy, this of course doesn't apply to Giolito, who they did not expect to get TJS, but it may be a point of optimism now.)
Love it; they needed some high upside depth and got it. Not at all concerned about where everyone fits right now; there will be attrition.
Ideally, you’d have a team option or a longer deal but there’s no reason for WB to have signed a deal like that; he was always taking a one year deal. That there doesn’t appear to be a player option is a win.
Ideally, you’d have a team option or a longer deal but there’s no reason for WB to have signed a deal like that; he was always taking a one year deal. That there doesn’t appear to be a player option is a win.
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Buehler wouldn’t have signed without assurances of getting the ball every 5 days.
I think Crawford is going out in a deal and we add another lesser insurance arm in his place that can shuttle like Priester.
I think Crawford is going out in a deal and we add another lesser insurance arm in his place that can shuttle like Priester.
Lance was all over this over a month ago. Great work by him. Interesting video
View: https://twitter.com/lancebroz/status/1854662511317913709?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/lancebroz/status/1854662511317913709?s=46
In this scenario, we'll get a strong 2025 season from Buehler and a 2026 draft pick, and will be even more widely seen by free agent pitchers as an ideal place to recuperate their careers.
This is where I stand as well. You can't argue that 1/21 for Buehler isn't a really nice piece of business in terms of risk/reward. But while it's always possible Buehler goes back to 2021 form, I'd guess #3-4 starter is more reasonable/hopeful given just how bad he was in 2024, and how little he pitched in 2022-23. The Sox have plenty of 3-4 starters. The rotation is nice and deep, but...
Does this open room for Tanner Scott or Hoffman? Or... both?
EDIT: "ISN'T a really nice piece of businees". So the same as what I wrote, but the opposite. Put better for those who speak English: "1/21 for Buehler is a really nice piece of business."
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That's fair. He's a better 6th starter than most. (He's probably a bettr 5th-best starter than most). I just hate having pitchers sit around essentially waiting for an injury. It almost leaves the pen one guy short. Either he is unavailable for a start because he just pitched in relief, or unavailable in relief because he has to start.
Exactly. The idea that he might be #6 on the depth chart in December is completely irrelevant.
Exactly. Best possible signing for this market. We've been missing a guy with a perfect Boston accent name since Nomar was shipped out.
Giolito didn’t pitch last year, Buehler threw 140 innings over 3 years, Crochett has had one season starting.
Kutter cost the minimum, can be elite in the pen, and is durable. Zero reason to move him.
Someone will get hurt.
No one is pitching 150 innings if they aren't in the rotation and there's no season-ending injuries.
This. Now we go.
The upside of Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and Chapman/Hendriks with Duran, Devers, Casas, Story, Yoshida, Abreu (plus kids?) is in pants off territory.
I'm kind of disappointed in this one. I was hoping they'd go after Scherzer, who is still a great pitcher on the rare times he's healthy to take the mound. But maybe they prefer the bounce back potential for the guy who's 10 years younger.
The reason I like pitching depth so much is that it lets you buy some lottery tickets. If you don't hit on a 7 year lottery ticket you're really, really screwed. This is a pristine Christmas Stocking lottery ticket.
The Sox goal needs to be 1. get to the playoffs and 2. have a strategy once you hit the offseason. If you need ten pitchers for a post season and you go out and buy the ten best pitchers on the market you will assuredly not have enough pitchers come the offseason. So you'll be developing depth. With that depth you have a greater luxury of accommodating for injury (and allowing top ten pitchers hurt during the season to rehab/recover without risking postseason qualification) and the ability to purchase a few lottery tickets with the remaining spots.
Also, if you consider Crochet/Houck/Bello our top three, that's three starters on rookie contracts who could benefit from some veteran leadership.
Not a move to cancel Christmas over, but also one that probably should make us feel better about 2025 more today than yesterday.
The Sox goal needs to be 1. get to the playoffs and 2. have a strategy once you hit the offseason. If you need ten pitchers for a post season and you go out and buy the ten best pitchers on the market you will assuredly not have enough pitchers come the offseason. So you'll be developing depth. With that depth you have a greater luxury of accommodating for injury (and allowing top ten pitchers hurt during the season to rehab/recover without risking postseason qualification) and the ability to purchase a few lottery tickets with the remaining spots.
Also, if you consider Crochet/Houck/Bello our top three, that's three starters on rookie contracts who could benefit from some veteran leadership.
Not a move to cancel Christmas over, but also one that probably should make us feel better about 2025 more today than yesterday.
I want to believe that they get one or the other. I never considered both and can't see it happening, but can you just imagine the two of them added to Whitlock, Hendricks, Chapman and Slaten? That makes for a very interesting back end of the pen.
Also, with these 1 year deal adds - Chapman, Buehler, plus Giolito… there is no reason to not exceed the tax this year. You can easily dip below it next year if needed.
I don't think there's a single team in all of baseball that didn't see significant injuries to their rotation last year. He'll get plenty of chance to pitch in the rotation if he's healthy.
Only if our other starters agree to get injured one at a time and not all at once like they've been doing for the last three years.
I know what the gross innings numbers are or can be. But he can only replace one guy at a time, and rotation injuries don't line up nicely with availability -- when the 6th guy "last pitched in relief" etc.
Dont get me wrong. I really like Crawford. And I think, as he did last year, he'll do what he needs to do to get better. I think he'd be a fine luxury to have as an extra starter. But short of a season-ending injury to another -- which is never out of the question in MLB -- I'm not sure how much he'd add if he's on the team and not making 30 starts.
And fwiw, I really like getting WB.
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Last years rotation around this time was, what…Bello-Giolito-Pivetta-Whitlock-Houck, I guess?
Guys not in that top five (including Crawford himself) ended up starting 72 games.
A great signing for 1 year that allows Craig and Co. to give Priester, Fitts, etc. another year of experience and more time to see what we have in those guys. It's a win win win...We get a good veteran for this season...Buehler get a good 1 year contract to re-establish himself.... and we get time for our youngsters do develop another year.
Sure, but like, so what? As @Petagine in a Bottle points out, there's no shortage of these innings. By May last year we were already down two starters and one depth option for the YEAR. Frankly someone is going to go down for the year, and we should plan for it to happen not very far into the season.
Every other good team is trying to carry six starters or so. It's good insurance and business.
Yeah, I'm with @joe dokes on this one. I think Kutter should be moved now. He's a valuable starting pitcher that's extremely cheap and about to enter arb. We've already got Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Penrod, and Fulmer as potential 40-man starters, and Whitlock and Winckowski as MIRPs.
If I were in Crawford's shoes, I'd certainly want to be moved. Big, big difference in future earnings in the first of four years of arb salaries between a mid-rotation starter and a long reliever/swingman.
If I were in Crawford's shoes, I'd certainly want to be moved. Big, big difference in future earnings in the first of four years of arb salaries between a mid-rotation starter and a long reliever/swingman.
Yes. Kutter has options, so he’ll be the odd man out if everyone’s healthy. But that probably still means 25 starts — how many teams get 140 starts from their top 5 these days??
My concern isn’t that we may waste some Kutter innings in Worcester; it’s that Buehler and/or Giolito may be toast, and the FO might wait 8-10 games before calling that.
*That* is the only assumption that, IMO, makes it better to keep Crawford. None of the other "might/probably need an extra starter" scenarios do it for me. (and again, I like Crawford and thus, I may be also extremely over-valuing his part in any trade).)
If that's the case, I would rather have Burnes (and I guess we still could), but I suspect this means we'll see Burnes announced to SF or Toronto on a very expensive contract soon.
As an upside play, I like the Buehler signing a lot. If Crochet and Houck repeat their seasons and Bello is closer to the second half version, this could be a very, very nice rotation. But after the Crochet signing, I would have liked someone with a bit of a higher floor/quantitative production. That said, this is another pitcher you could see yourself not dreading starting in an ALCS game, so, I'm a fan.
Yup, especially if one of the Priester/Fitts/Dobbins/Sandlin high-minors cluster takes a step toward legit ML starter-dom. There's a real opportunity to either splash out some medium-term money on the bullpen or take on some payroll in an effort to add to the offense.
I like it a lot. Like many others, I believe in his upside…at worst, we get an injury riddled performance of a year, in which case we move in a different direction next year.
We can discuss the lack of spending in the Henry thread, but as much as I’d love Corbin Burnes, I see him as likely a 4-6 win pitcher at best in the next 3 years, if everything shakes well. And then a 2-3 WAR guy in the last 4-5 years of his contract. I get the reasons for going this route.
We can discuss the lack of spending in the Henry thread, but as much as I’d love Corbin Burnes, I see him as likely a 4-6 win pitcher at best in the next 3 years, if everything shakes well. And then a 2-3 WAR guy in the last 4-5 years of his contract. I get the reasons for going this route.
I watched a lot of Dodgers regular season games last year and Buehler wasn't great--he even admitted that he thought that he was going to get released. He was terrific in the postseason, so I'm obviously hoping that the Sox get that version of him.
And I guess that's what bums me out about the Red Sox the last few years, just about every acquisition comes with an asterisk. "If he can bounce back from TJ surgery ...", "If he shows what he did in the playoffs ...", if, if, if. I would just like for them to sign a pitcher that doesn't have a bunch of problems and who's next season isn't determined by 10 things going exactly right.
Buehler was signed for $20M, which is fine, I suppose. It's not my money, I don't care. But the Sox have a budget and have ML arms already in their rotation, so I guess this is it for starting pitching upgrades. Crochet should be a plus but swapping Buehler for Pivetta seems like a wash at best. I completely understand what the Sox' philosophy on free agent pitching is Dana Carvey as George Bush ("Not gonna do it"). But every year I get suckered into thinking, "This year's starters look pretty good and the home grown talent should make the leap and their payroll is actually low", and every year we get something like this: fine but full of questions.
I'm not against the signing, but it's just another meh to dump on the same pile.
And I guess that's what bums me out about the Red Sox the last few years, just about every acquisition comes with an asterisk. "If he can bounce back from TJ surgery ...", "If he shows what he did in the playoffs ...", if, if, if. I would just like for them to sign a pitcher that doesn't have a bunch of problems and who's next season isn't determined by 10 things going exactly right.
Buehler was signed for $20M, which is fine, I suppose. It's not my money, I don't care. But the Sox have a budget and have ML arms already in their rotation, so I guess this is it for starting pitching upgrades. Crochet should be a plus but swapping Buehler for Pivetta seems like a wash at best. I completely understand what the Sox' philosophy on free agent pitching is Dana Carvey as George Bush ("Not gonna do it"). But every year I get suckered into thinking, "This year's starters look pretty good and the home grown talent should make the leap and their payroll is actually low", and every year we get something like this: fine but full of questions.
I'm not against the signing, but it's just another meh to dump on the same pile.
Buehler is the highest upside FA that doesn’t require a long term contract to a pitcher over 30. I would have hoped for a second year, but this is still a nice stocking stuffer!
Kutter had a great April, and a 5+ ERA after that; he’s certainly no sure thing either. There will be opportunities, though. He wasn’t a lock for the rotation this time a year ago and made 33 starts. If he has to start the season in the pen / Worcester, it means a lot of things have gone right.
The other scenario I think is worth imagining is either Buehler or Giolito sucks out loud.
Here's what jumps out on his statcast profile:
Seven pitches! Guess which one blows by Run Values:
Seven pitches! Guess which one blows by Run Values:
I'll take this 5 inning effort v. MFY for any 2025 MFY game.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401701040/dodgers-yankees
Another thing re the Crawford discussion is what the org thinks of Priester.
If they consider him an actual future rotation piece — and I imagine they do if they gave up Yorke for him — they'll want to see him at the major league level. He's already pitched quite a bit for the Pirates and had 10 starts in our org last year.
To me, Priester's 2024 looks a little like Nick Pivetta's 2020. Pivetta entered that season as part of a rotation that included Eovaldi, Houck, Richards, Pérez, and Rodriguez, with Sale due back in August.
If they consider him an actual future rotation piece — and I imagine they do if they gave up Yorke for him — they'll want to see him at the major league level. He's already pitched quite a bit for the Pirates and had 10 starts in our org last year.
To me, Priester's 2024 looks a little like Nick Pivetta's 2020. Pivetta entered that season as part of a rotation that included Eovaldi, Houck, Richards, Pérez, and Rodriguez, with Sale due back in August.
Given that the team philosophy is only to pay market if a pitcher is 25 years old or on a 1-2 year deal, I think this is a great outcome. We can certainly litigate the philosophy elsewhere, but this is a nice signing.
I don't understand why they would trade any controllable pitching given their hesitance to spend on the FA market for pitching. They should be hoarding it in every way so they don't have to go shopping on the clearance rack for replacements. If someone wants to pay a fortune for Kutter, of course you consider it, but this team can never be seen as having a pitching surplus given how they attempt to acquire it
Rotation makes a lot of sense and allows for the young pitchers to establish themselves into the future.
I don't understand why they would trade any controllable pitching given their hesitance to spend on the FA market for pitching. They should be hoarding it in every way so they don't have to go shopping on the clearance rack for replacements. If someone wants to pay a fortune for Kutter, of course you consider it, but this team can never be seen as having a pitching surplus given how they attempt to acquire it
Rotation makes a lot of sense and allows for the young pitchers to establish themselves into the future.
I like the deal. The more potential capable arms the better. Let the dominos fall where they may. Someone is gonna suck, someone is gonna exceed our expectations.
Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Sandoval later in the season... surely five of them will be good enough.
Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Sandoval later in the season... surely five of them will be good enough.
Besides being the 6th SP (waiting for injury or underperformance from 1-5), Kutter can pitch the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings (sometimes multiple innings) several times a week.
With the way MLB pitchers go down, AAA pitching staffs are also part of the rotation/pen.
They shouldn't deal Kutter with 4yrs of control.
If by June/July the Sox have an abundance of good pitching they can use that moment to be a seller, as other teams suffer pitching injuries and demand is great.
Now subsidize Masa and move him for an AAA arm, RH bat, or defense-first catcher.
Breslow/Bailey are here to revamp, rewire, & rebuild the pitching staff. Have to trust their process for a few years.
Hard to criticize this signing. We didn’t give up anything but money
for a pitcher who might be the next Chris Sales
Ah, think you mean ‘21. Pivetta was acquired in the middle of the 2020 season for Workman and Hembree, no?