I dunno, coming out of the pen in 25 sounds like a decent way to get him back pitching in the bigs while revamping his usage and getting him back as soon as possible.
Red Sox sign Patrick Sandoval
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Kinda depends on where in that 2023-2024 window his elbow started barking, because clearly something happened and they're banking on that being fixed following the elbow surgery and he more closely resembles 2022.
A complete waste of money in my opinion.
He is mediocre at best and reduces the money available
for real talent
His FIP for his career is 3.96, which is perfectly cromulent for a $9M AAV contract. He was 19-45 in 6 years for one of the worst organizations in baseball, and has actually thrown over 530 innings with solid metrics. If he was healthy he probably gets close to what Matt Boyd just got, maybe more.
I think if we’re all worried about them having too many SPs in 2026, then things will have gone almost implausibly well in 2025.
He's a changeup guy. His fastball is not very impressive. His bloated ERA from last year doesn't really square with his FIP or his xERA. I don't have much doubt though that he'd be more effective.
I agree about depth, but if Giolito or Crawford aren’t starting and you don’t move them, they really don’t have much value out of the bullpen, I’m not really sure it’s worth keeping them around unless they are in the rotation. This is of course everyone stays healthy, but I don’t think Crawford or Giolito is the guy you keep as a long-reliever in case of injury.
Have the Sox added bullpen depth? I am not sure I see that the same way. They lost their top 2 relievers from last year's pen and added a past his prime Chapman. I suppose you could say they 'added' Whitlock and Hendriks, but those are 2 guys coming off injuries that we aren't sure what they'll give. in my opinion they need to add more for sure.
Exactly. Starting staff was 7th in ERA last year with a depth looking something like Houck/Giolito/Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Whitlock/Murphy/Winck/Criswell. We ended up with Giolito, Whitlock, and Murphy all went down, bringing us to 6 guys. And Winck got bullpen'd.
We're now at: Crochet/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Crawford/Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Winck/Whitlock (with the obvious caveat that I think those two are and should have been last ditch options last year) and Sandoval as late season cavalry. If three of the better guys on this list go down, we're going to need everyone.
Those 2023 results are skewed by a weird June where he posted some of his best underlying numbers of the season but got pasted by a .451 BABIP. 7.11 ERA vs 3.41 FIP.
Sandoval's case is interesting. He had internal brace surgery, which should allow earlier RTP, but he also had a high-grade flexor tear. This complicates things: more variables in the rehab, longer for the flexor tendon to heal, etc. I am just going off good old fashioned AI and some prior knowledge, but I think there is a good chance he doesn't pitch until 2026.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but right now they could store him on the 60-day injured list and move him to the 40-man roster when needed. To me it’s a great way to add pitching depth and not create a roster crunch.
Isn't a Changeup really only effective when one has a good fastball?
Again, I'm not against signings like this... .just in the context of knowing that there IS a budget ceiling and I'd rather use that money into a Crochet extension. Or whatever. Out of context, who cares what the cost is... but if there's some weird shit like the Sox have a ceiling for a Crochet extension because of some budget situation and it's the difference in dollars here then it does become a big deal. And so far, that kinda seems like it's the actual case. The Sox WON'T go X over an offer of $X per season and that said $X per season is being taken up by another signing of a guy rehabbing then I don't get it.
And.... maybe those resources could be better spent on development of pitchers? Is it a better use of resources to see that Player A had a great pitch or two three years ago but then was terrible and then had surgery and might be back and healthy or to use those resources on an 18 year old with a healthy arm that could be taught more effectively? I don't know... just asking. Sure... why not both?
Again, I'm not against signings like this... .just in the context of knowing that there IS a budget ceiling and I'd rather use that money into a Crochet extension. Or whatever. Out of context, who cares what the cost is... but if there's some weird shit like the Sox have a ceiling for a Crochet extension because of some budget situation and it's the difference in dollars here then it does become a big deal. And so far, that kinda seems like it's the actual case. The Sox WON'T go X over an offer of $X per season and that said $X per season is being taken up by another signing of a guy rehabbing then I don't get it.
And.... maybe those resources could be better spent on development of pitchers? Is it a better use of resources to see that Player A had a great pitch or two three years ago but then was terrible and then had surgery and might be back and healthy or to use those resources on an 18 year old with a healthy arm that could be taught more effectively? I don't know... just asking. Sure... why not both?
I've liked Sandoval for years. I was excited about his skills and targeting him aggressively in fantasy baseball a few years ago. At this point, he's a decent lottery ticket.
But even after the Crochet trade I felt that the Red Sox needed another top of the rotation starter to seriously compete for the AL East. After this signing... I think they still need another top of the rotation starter to seriously compete for the AL East.
Even in terms of adding rotation depth this is pretty thin gruel for 2025. Players are unlikely to show up at full-strength in mid-season returns from TJS, and all it will take is one setback in his rehab for Sandoval's best case in 2025 to be bullpen depth in September. As mauf says here:
But even after the Crochet trade I felt that the Red Sox needed another top of the rotation starter to seriously compete for the AL East. After this signing... I think they still need another top of the rotation starter to seriously compete for the AL East.
Even in terms of adding rotation depth this is pretty thin gruel for 2025. Players are unlikely to show up at full-strength in mid-season returns from TJS, and all it will take is one setback in his rehab for Sandoval's best case in 2025 to be bullpen depth in September. As mauf says here:
I'm fine with this if there's another starter on his way who has a better chance to help the 2025 club. I'm not if there's not.
I don't believe that is correct. 60 day doesn't open up until spring training starts, IIRC.
Can't put him on the 60-day IL until spring training. He'll occupy a 40-man spot in the meantime.
I don't care about AAV. I want the Red Sox to employ players who can play baseball and win games. Once again we're signing a guy to not play. I'm so tired of it.
But hey, now we can have posts about how we can't sign any FAs because who will get knocked out of that loaded 2026 rotation?!
But hey, now we can have posts about how we can't sign any FAs because who will get knocked out of that loaded 2026 rotation?!
Do you not think that having Liam Hendrix this year is awesome? And having him for $10AAV less than Jansen even more awesome?
Literally every analyst is saying this is a nice and intriguing depth piece.
Only Red Sox fans are pissed.
No, I don't think its awesome. Maybe it'll be awesome if he actually pitches and performs well. Until then, he's a 35 year old who's barely pitched in 2 years.
What would be awesome is having an actual closer who's done actual closer things sometime in the past 2 seasons.
I'm sick of "intriguing depth pieces". I prefer actual depth pieces, and actual ballplayers who can actually play ball.
Let’s see Hendriks pitch before celebrating. IIRC, there was lots of noise here last year about he’d be back right after the ASB. So, hopefully it works out. But why, as fans, should we care about the AAV of his contract? (FWIW, he has $10M in performance bonus clauses he could hit this year- hopefully he hits them all, although it would substantially increase his AAV).
Like Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman?
People need to get a grip and worry about the offseason being over when it’s over.
A lot of Red Sox fans are entitled idiots acting like Yankee fans of--just to pull a time frame out of my ass entirely randomly--twenty-five years ago.
I think we should try to always have a recuperating pitcher on the 60-day IL. Either one of ours or a signing like this. The roster rules encourage it.
There’s a decent chance that a Sandoval who uses his bad 4-seam much less than he has, i.e. as a show me pitch off the plate, and focuses more on his plus change and plus slider could have some success. Not sure I see a high ceiling though.
I also think this may be a sign that we’re going to move Crawford in a trade for a bat. I also wonder whether Whitlock is still seen as a SP by the powers that be, even if all of us have conceded he should relieve.
Crochet - Gouck - FA - Bello - [whichever of Whitlock/Giolito/Sandoval are healthy]
There’s a decent chance that a Sandoval who uses his bad 4-seam much less than he has, i.e. as a show me pitch off the plate, and focuses more on his plus change and plus slider could have some success. Not sure I see a high ceiling though.
I also think this may be a sign that we’re going to move Crawford in a trade for a bat. I also wonder whether Whitlock is still seen as a SP by the powers that be, even if all of us have conceded he should relieve.
Crochet - Gouck - FA - Bello - [whichever of Whitlock/Giolito/Sandoval are healthy]
Yes. Like those guys. Acquire more of those kinda of guys.
I've been preaching patience this offseason. I just don't see the need to celebrate the acquisition of yet another injured player as being "awesome". And I don't give a shit about AAV.
To the bolded, his fastball was terrible just last year while he had one of the most effective changeups in the league. So, I guess not.
xFIPS of 3.67, 4.61, and 4.04. If he bounces back to any of those and can put up 150 innings, he's more than worth the money
You're a really good poster, so can you expand on this a little? I don't totally understand what you're saying here. Personally:
1) No, I don't think having Hendriks is necessarily "awesome." And for the record, from what I can tell I am a huge fan of his as a person and I adored watching him pitch through 2022.
Hendriks hasn't thrown a single pitch for this team yet. And he was another signing that initially some suggested would be "like a midseason acquisition for the 2024 team," so much so that many assumed we would trade Kenley in July last year because he wouldn't be needed anymore. Well... he didn't throw a pitch in 2024 when the team's bullpen was collapsing down the stretch -- it's arguably part of why we missed the playoffs by 5 games.
We'll see how Hendriks does in 2025 vs. Jansen. Last year, Jansen saved 27 games with a 3.27 ERA. When the 2025 season begins it will have been two full years since Hendriks threw a pitch in the Majors (note: technically he did throw 5 innings in 2023), and he'll be 36 years old. When he was dominating the American League from 2019 to 2022 his fastball velocity averaged ~97 mph, and he could reach back for 99/100 when needed.
Will Hendriks still be "awesome" and able to do that in 2025 after a major surgery and setbacks in his rehab? We'll find out.
But there's a reason Kenley costs money while Hendriks was available as a bargain signing -- Kenley's healthy and clearly can still pitch effectively in MLB.
2) Again, in my opinion, the Sox have a lot of "nice and intriguing depth pieces" (and I agree that Sandoval is another one! -- again, I like the guy as a lottery ticket). But I'm still skeptical that they have enough high-end talent to beat the Orioles and Yankees on the field in 2025 and beyond. And Sandoval is yet another unknown there.
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Saw him pitch for the Angels a lot because we get their broadcasts on our cable package. Color me as "Meh." It's only money right? Don't quite get the obsession with the reclamation projects either. I suppose if you do enough of them, someone will get lucky and be good.
Not a terribly high bar for Sandoval to clear to be the Red Sox all-time greatest 'Patrick'. All I've come up with are Dodson, Mahomes, and Light.
Probably some small % of early bad outcomes we can be sure he has avoided. Post op infections, early graft complications etc.
But if he hasn't really ramped up throwing I doubt they can know with any certainty he is going in the basket of X% of cases that are close to "as good as new".
Put another way, I doubt the majority of the "bad outcomes" are known in the first 6 months.
I don't think that trading a guy to create a hole is the best idea. At the very least, they should already have a pitcher on the hook before doing so.
It didn't sound like it when Breslow and Cora were last talking about him. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/12/red-sox-know-likely-role-for-garrett-whitlock-but-big-9th-inning-question-looms.html
But it's been more than 9 days since the Red Sox acquired (arguably) the best starting pitcher in baseball.
They already know where Hendriks is. Past-prime Chapman made 68 appearances. They are signaling an urgency to acquire another starter to push another guy to the pen. Whitlock is expected to be ready. Not sure how many new injuries we should expect but it’s filling up.
Sure and thanks for the compliment.
Hendricks was a great reliever who, if healthy, would command a large 2 year or even larger 1 year deal.
Because the Red Sox signed him during rehab they were able to spread his AAV to a very trivial $5AAV. They also avoided any sort of draft compensation due to the lack of QO.
Furthermore, because of the 60 day implications, it took zero 40 man room. So they preemptively avoided a QO and backfilled a $15AAV closer with a $5AAV closer.
Now, of course there is risk because he might suck. Buy him sucking is negated because there is essentially no opportunity cost.
He didn’t take up a roster spot, he didn’t cost draft capital, and he is making nothing. If he sucks, cut him. And with the wide variance of relief pitching, who really knows. But it is a creative way to fill a void vs signing a Hoffman type to a 3 year 12-15AAV deal which really locks you into a high variance player.
This is the exact set up as Sandoval. If you get a good year of pitching it’s a home run. No QO and if he’s good you’ll probably gain draft capital on the back end by extending the QO.
I complete agree with your second point. It’s a tricky roster of really good not great players. It’s challenging to improve the roster.
I don’t think it’s hard to improve this roster. Traded for Crochet. Signed Chapman.
Now sign Burnes. Sign Teoscar. Trade Yoshida+$ for a prospect. Sign Scott.
Yes it costs $$, but that’s a way better team. Not difficult to improve the team at all.
Now sign Burnes. Sign Teoscar. Trade Yoshida+$ for a prospect. Sign Scott.
Yes it costs $$, but that’s a way better team. Not difficult to improve the team at all.
I don't think anyone assumes there's zero risk, I think the risk feels adequately baked in to this contract. For comparison, Frankie Montas is two years older, and has been substantially worse since 2022 (Montas: 4.43 ERA in ~300 IP with a 4.25 FIP; Sandoval: 3.84 ERA in 370 IP, 3.68 FIP). Sandoval's numbers since 2022 are actually remarkably similar to Eovaldi's, (3.76 ERA, 424 IP, 3.97 FIP), though of course he's 6 years older than Sandoval. Montas just got 2/34, Eovaldi got 3/75. So even if Sandoval doesn't pitch at all this year you're getting a guy who's been better better than Montas, is younger, and at a lower AAV (for cap purposes). The trade-off for that is the risk that he doesn't bounce back to that level, which is a real risk, otherwise Sandoval is probably looking at 4+ years at 25m+ AAV given what we've seen this offseason.
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Yeah, it’s only challenging to improve the roster if you’re going to categorically reject every FA deal due to low risk tolerance. Plenty of guys available who could help. It only takes money.
Meanwhile, we continue to throw $18M at injured guys who aren’t even that good when healthy.
Depressing. Hoping they go over even the first tier but I agree, can't assume they will.
Okay, this is super helpful and reasonable, thanks for taking the time to write that up.
On Hendriks, I'll just say again I'm skeptical (though hopeful!) that we'll backfill a $15M closer with a $5M closer. There's a reason he was such a bargain. Although to be fair, as we've seen, every pitcher is "trust but verify" from a health perspective.
On Sandoval, no disagreement there. As depth, especially with an eye toward 2026, it's a solid deal. And as MLBTR points out, an odd decision by the Angels that already looks unwise, no matter how Sandoval turns out:
This deal also covers his age 28 and 29 seasons. They really seem to care a lot about age, huh?