Red Sox sign Patrick Sandoval

radsoxfan

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If he was healthy, he would probably be getting a 1 year deal worth between $13M-$17M, so to have him in your system for 2 full years to work with your pitching staff, and possibly get him back for part of this season not for much more money, I don’t really see it as an overpay.
I think people like to gloss over the health aspect of these post TJS.

Maybe 80-90% make it back to pitching, and a subset of those are not quite the same.

More likely than not Sandoval will be back to his previous self (whatever that is), but I don't think it should be compensated as if it's a given. Wait and see approach is better unless you're getting a huge discount.
 

bosockboy

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Late season starting depth plus a full year. If it doesn’t preclude another signing I’m good with it.

Makes me wonder if it’s adding depth before moving Crawford.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm grant that the risk is certainly different, but this move is full of risk, namely the risk that you've paid $18 million to a guy who cannot be relied on to be healthy and may not be very good if he is. There's also the risk that if he is good in 2026, he just flies the coop as a free agent, because lord knows we don't want to pay market rates for healthy pitchers any more. Then you're on to the next reclamation project. Rinse and repeat.
We need to supplement the "trade your minor league studs for starting pitching" strategy with reclamation projects because there are only so many minor league studs.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Sandoval has 3 above average pitches and two extremely good pitches (sweeper + slider) by Stuff+ and an insane whiff rate on his Changeup and Sweeper. His fastball also sucks. This feels like an extremely driveline/breslow/bailey arsenal redeployment that has a chance at significant upside for a $9m AAV.
I think this is the full story. A 28 year old pitcher with excellent metrics checks all of Breslow and Co's boxes.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I am very whelmed at this move. Seems like a lot of CBT hit to commit to what I think is just a #5 starter. But also... #5 starters are starting to cost this much.

I'll read through this thread and I'm sure there's some good qualities that explain this signing, probably a Bailey/Breslow pitch redo. We didn't get the data on a project like this with Giolito's elbow blowing up last year, sadly.
 
While deals like this are never exciting, I'll keep sticking to the line that this kind of signing is generally good. When I looked at free agent signings and resulting value generated, pillow contracts were the best performing deals for both pitchers and hitters. You can't build your team around deals like this, but as a supplement to other moves one or two reclamation projects are good to have.

As others have suggested, the logic here is undoubtedly that his numbers in '23 and '24 are hopefully a result of arm wear that led to his TJS, and that post surgery he will be poised to get back to something closer to his '21-'22 numbers. If he can give the sox 150-200 innings between the second half of this year and next year at a 3-4 FIP rate, that'll be an excellent value at a 9mm AAV rate.
 

bosox1534

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I think people like to gloss over the health aspect of these post TJS.

Maybe 80-90% make it back to pitching, and a subset of those are not quite the same.

More likely than not Sandoval will be back to his previous self (whatever that is), but I don't think it should be compensated as if it's a given. Wait and see approach is better unless you're getting a huge discount.
It seems like nowadays more guys are having some sort of elbow surgery than not, so I don’t think the recovery problems are really thought of as the same way these used to.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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If he was healthy, he would probably be getting a 1 year deal worth between $13M-$17M, so to have him in your system for 2 full years to work with your pitching staff, and possibly get him back for part of this season not for much more money, I don’t really see it as an overpay. The Angels aren’t exactly pitching gurus when it comes to development, so I’m excited to see what we can get out of a guy under 30 who has really good stuff.
If he was healthy, he'd probably get three years, and be entirely uninterested in joining the back end of a rather crowded rotation in any case.
 

radsoxfan

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It seems like nowadays more guys are having some sort of elbow surgery than not, so I don’t think the recovery problems are really thought of as the same way these used to.
I mean, the data is the data. Lots of people have elbow surgery and most of them make it back, yes. But not all of them do, and sometimes there is more damage than “just TJS”.

If people want to pretend the surgery never happened and that there is zero added risk here, not sure that’s the smart way to go about pitching acquisitions.
 

E5 Yaz

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Reactions to signings like this always remind me of the negativity in the thread when the Sox signed a pitcher trying to come back from a broken shoulder blade of his throwing arm.
 

TapeAndPosts

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Late season starting depth plus a full year. If it doesn’t preclude another signing I’m good with it.
Yeah, this is where I am. If everyone's running on fumes when August comes around, a fresh arm would be nice. I like it in and of itself, though of course it's not better than having a good arm for the whole year, and I hope we can still add another one of those.
 

6-5 Sadler

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I mean, the data is the data. Lots of people have elbow surgery and most of them make it back, yes. But not all of them do, and sometimes there is more damage than “just TJS”.

If people want to pretend the surgery never happened and that there is zero added risk here, not sure that’s the smart way to go about pitching acquisitions.
Genuine question…at this point in Sandoval’s recovery (6 months post surgery), what information would they have on how his rehab is going? If there haven’t been any setbacks to date, does that de-risk the likelihood he bounces all the way back? Or do you not know how someone will bounce back until they’re fully ramped?
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Zacklee!!! I don't get it. This feels like another "look at the smartest guy in the room over there playing 4-D chess... we're clearly all missing something..." sort of move when the most obvious moves are right there.
Do you think Craig Breslow knows more about pitching and baseball than the average SoSH poster? The average SoSH poster has a firm grasp on the "obvious moves", but not much else. In that company, I'm pretty comfortable with the idea that Craig Breslow is the smartest guy in the room.

Burstnbloom's excellent post above is the level at which I assume Breslow and any other good GMs are doing their evaluation. They are looking past just the numbers, and into the specific arsenal these players have, with an eye on redeploying that arsenal more effectively. Like the first year with Bailey seemed to do for Houck and Crawford.

This just seems like we traded for our mid-season acquisition early, taking some of the pressure off of getting that move done in July, when it will come likely at a higher cost.
 

TheDogMan

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Yeah, not seeing what Breslow sees in those numbers to think he's worth basically $18M for one season in the future- I never expect these guys to be ready when the most optimistic expected start times are set. Maybe... but I doubt it.
I just don't get these moves. Wing and a prayer kind of stuff. I could see it if we already had a great team but we need a lot more for 2025.
 

Fishy1

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This is a depth signing, pure and simple, hedging against inevitable injuries to the pitching staff, with plenty of upside if he comes back healthy. It gives us more depth going into the second half than we had last year.

We've had bad luck with these so far. Paxton was meh, Giolito was injured, and the jury is out on Hendriks.

Helps to keep in mind that going into last season, Jack Flaherty was this kind of guy: K rate down, walking too many, and hadn't been effective and healthy since his age 23 season. Now we want to give him 3 years/75 million. And Giolito was the durable workhorse with gopher ball problems (now he's just an injured question mark.

Pitching is super, super volatile. Maybe Sandoval pops. It's not a bad bet, and it's better IMO to make a few of these.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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I'm grant that the risk is certainly different, but this move is full of risk, namely the risk that you've paid $18 million to a guy who cannot be relied on to be healthy and may not be very good if he is.
Yes, but that is enough about Lucas Giolito.

If you believe that Sandoval would command $15M as a free agent prior to 2026 (and that seems low, especially for a one-year deal), the Red Sox are effectively paying Sandoval $3M this season. I would gladly pay Sandoval $3M to not pitch before paying Justin Wilson $3M to pitch. I only hope the Red Sox infield defense improves enough by Sandoval’s return that Boston is not just Anaheim with worse weather.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Despite the staff running out of gas last season - which is more a resource issue than a management one - the Sox FO has some pitching credibility so a signing like this in isolation is not a problem. Its probably pretty shrewd.

However if this is how they want continue to bolster their staff, we have to acknowledge that the Sox are structurally priced out of the FA pitching market. Chapman's market was likely limited and this guy is unlikely to produce until the next year. Its only December 20th so its still early but we should a lot more data about how this team can be built in the next few weeks.

If they cannot afford market price MLB pitching, they will have to sell off assets to get it.
 

Fishy1

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Do you think Craig Breslow knows more about pitching and baseball than the average SoSH poster? The average SoSH poster has a firm grasp on the "obvious moves", but not much else. In that company, I'm pretty comfortable with the idea that Craig Breslow is the smartest guy in the room.

Burstnbloom's excellent post above is the level at which I assume Breslow and any other good GMs are doing their evaluation. They are looking past just the numbers, and into the specific arsenal these players have, with an eye on redeploying that arsenal more effectively. Like the first year with Bailey seemed to do for Houck and Crawford.

This just seems like we traded for our mid-season acquisition early, taking some of the pressure off of getting that move done in July, when it will come likely at a higher cost.
Exactly. We already added a top-flight pitcher in Crochet. We've added bullpen depth. Now we're adding more starting depth to a staff that's already deeper than it was last year.

I think some won't be happy till we spend 200 million on a starting pitcher. Then, in three years they'll be mad when the guys arm falls off because we did spend that money. Whatever.
 

NYCSox

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Yet somehow his FIP has always been reasonable. I have yet to see a study that shows that walks are actually worse than hits for a pitcher to allow. (I get that that if you walk a lot, you better not give up hits, especially xbh.)
It's a high wire act to be sure. That's why my best guess is that a guy like Gil for example will never repeat his 2024 ERA performance.
 

Rusty13

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Yes, but that is enough about Lucas Giolito.

If you believe that Sandoval would command $15M as a free agent prior to 2026 (and that seems low, especially for a one-year deal), the Red Sox are effectively paying Sandoval $3M this season. I would gladly pay Sandoval $3M to not pitch before paying Justin Wilson $3M to pitch. I only hope the Red Sox infield defense improves enough by Sandoval’s return that Boston is not just Anaheim with worse weather.
How many innings (particularly in his first several outings) will Sandoval even throw when he returns from TJ rehab? I can't even contemplate him being the last rotation move this team makes for the 2025 season.
 

chrisfont9

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If they can be known as the go to Org for post TJ rehab and development that would be a very big deal.
I imagine it's about his age, he is 28 next year, and had a 3.3 win season at 25. Not sure when the elbow started barking. But this seems like a reasonable depth stash. Oh and it's about handedness. If he is good and under 30, he's a rare commodity.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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How many innings (particularly in his first several outings) will Sandoval even throw when he returns from TJ rehab? I can't even contemplate him being the last rotation move this team makes for the 2025 season.
This is a flier and we should want them to take them. Along with the risk of signing MLB FA pitchers who may well get hurt during the term of the contract (the risk of doing business in the MLB and one that baseball savvy orgs undertake as well as survive all the time).

For rotation depth that can be counted on this season, there are no magic bullets. They either pay someone off the street or trade the their young players and prospects. Or they can do nothing. With each transactional datapoint, they seem to be cutting of the paths for some here to choose their own adventure.
 

mauf

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We paid James Paxton a shade over $12M for 1.3 WAR, and I think we’d all describe his tenure in Boston as at least a mild disappointment. Compare that to the free agent market — does anyone think that Corbin Burnes will be worth 1 WAR for every $10M on his upcoming deal? You do need to place those big bets sometimes, but there’s value to be had on these small reclamation deals, even if we have to pay a little above market for them because Fenway. (If Sandoval had the same 2/18 on offer from, say, San Francisco, I’m sure he’d have signed there instead.)

This is only a terrible deal if the short money causes the FO not to make a more impactful move, or if the club fails to grasp the concept of a sunk cost and keeps throwing Sandoval out there even if he sucks. I’m not too worried about either risk, though I certainly understand concerns about the former given the club’s recent penny-pinching ways.
 

CoolPapaBellhorn

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I can already see the trade deadline takes: "we don't need to add a starter, Sandoval is coming back!"

I want to like this move as an upside play, but they need more. On its own, it's frustrating. His walk numbers suggest that I'm going to hate watching him pitch.
 

OCab44

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How many innings (particularly in his first several outings) will Sandoval even throw when he returns from TJ rehab? I can't even contemplate him being the last rotation move this team makes for the 2025 season.
It's not.

Naysayers gonna naysay....... (not you)
 

natpastime162

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I don’t pay attention as much these days to the day-to-day and numbers, but we just watched the Dodgers essentially go through last season with enough pitching to fill two average to above-average/very strong major league rosters. Add in they likely would have lost in the post-season without that depth, it was incredibly smart in hindsight. In addition, the explosion in pitching injuries across MLB is impossible to ignore. Until a better solution is found, maybe amassing as many pitchers with above average pitches/spin-rates as possible is the smart play.
 

Cassvt2023

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Is it purely coincidence, or part of the bigger strategy for Breslow/Bailey that we have added 4 pitchers so far this offseason, 3 by FA signing (Wilson, Chapman, Sandoval) and one via trade (Crochet) and they are all lefthanded.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Is it purely coincidence, or part of the bigger strategy for Breslow/Bailey that we have added 4 pitchers so far this offseason, 3 by FA signing (Wilson, Chapman, Sandoval) and one via trade (Crochet) and they are all lefthanded.
The entire major league staff last year, that could actually contribute positively, was too righthanded. Attempting to fix that I don't mind at all.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Yeah, not seeing what Breslow sees in those numbers to think he's worth basically $18M for one season in the future- I never expect these guys to be ready when the most optimistic expected start times are set. Maybe... but I doubt it.
In watching Sandoval against us, his stuff has impressed but he's never been able to put it together.

When is he expected to be ready? All Star Break?
 

bosox1534

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For those that want another starter for start of 2025, are you intent on moving Crawford then, or keeping him and running a 6-man rotation? Because I just don’t see the need to obtain another one, especially with Fitts and Priester as depth for injuries. Im much more worried about the bullpen breaking down than the rotation.
 

tims4wins

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I can already see the trade deadline takes: "we don't need to add a starter, Sandoval is coming back!"

I want to like this move as an upside play, but they need more. On its own, it's frustrating. His walk numbers suggest that I'm going to hate watching him pitch.
This
 

zenax

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I think this is the full story. A 28 year old pitcher with excellent metrics checks all of Breslow and Co's boxes.
2022 -- ERA 2.91 in 148.2 IP
2023 -- ERA 4.11 in 144.2 IP
2024 -- ERA 5.08 in 79.2 IP
In his first three seasons, he pitched 163.0 innings, mostly as a starter, with 19-45 WL record. Which level will he bounce back to?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I mentioned this in the "rumors" thread but for the sake of posterity:

I think on it's surface this is fine and about as good as we could hope for on a depth signing. None of guys like Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney, Charlie Morton or whatever your selection were going to be coming to Boston to battle it out with Crawford, Priester and Fitts for SP5. Sandoval was because of the injury and rehab, so no qualms with that in and of itself.

When you factor in they had $51m left before LTT1, it now becomes $42m. I assume a Crochet extension brings them down to $20m. As such, you're now out on anyone like Bregman, Arenado, Castillo, Lopez or similar (which I'm bummed out, others might not be). They'll still sign a bullpen arm (maybe that's a good one, maybe it's two "meh" options) but that's about all that there is room for in the budget (until proven otherwise).

So for what it means for the rotation - I'm good. What it means for the rest of the roster - dislike the trickle down effect.
 

TrotNixonRing

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Starter stuff usually plays way up in the bullpen. Could he be viewed as a starter in ‘26 but a power lefty arm coming out of the ‘pen in ‘25?
 

mauf

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For those that want another starter for start of 2025, are you intent on moving Crawford then, or keeping him and running a 6-man rotation? Because I just don’t see the need to obtain another one, especially with Fitts and Priester as depth for injuries. Im much more worried about the bullpen breaking down than the rotation.
As of now, the rotation is Crochet/Houck/Bello/Crawford/Giolito, with Fitts as next man up. (I’m assuming Whitlock is headed for the bullpen.) That’s pretty thin — Giolito may not be healthy, Crawford may not be any good, and Fitts isn’t ready to make 25 starts if someone ahead of him goes down. I don’t think we’re getting Burnes, and I’m fine with that, but a veteran who could compete with Crawford and Giolito for those last two rotation spots seems necessary. Someone who could lock down the 3rd or 4th spot and leave those two to compete for the 5th would be even better. Excess pitching depth is unlikely to be a problem.