Red Sox sign Patrick Sandoval
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Ah, another sign-them-while-they're-hurt project. I suppose if we do one of these every year, we'll always have someone coming back...
If they can be known as the go to Org for post TJ rehab and development that would be a very big deal.
I don't mind some dumpster diving as long as it is part of the plan, but I pray it is not the whole plan.
This man really like to strike 'em out and walk 'em. Those WHIP numbers the past two seasons are atrocious.
Nope, I am still half awake and read it that way as well.. fun fact, Pablo Sandoval is only 38
I'd be curious the details as far as guarantees, player vs team option, etc.
At face value it's a lot of $ to pay a non-elite player to rehab and (hopefully) return in the 2nd half of the season. Might be money down the drain.
I would assume/hope most of the $ is year 2 as a team option.
At face value it's a lot of $ to pay a non-elite player to rehab and (hopefully) return in the 2nd half of the season. Might be money down the drain.
I would assume/hope most of the $ is year 2 as a team option.
Totally. These kinds of signings always get pshawed when people are expecting bigger but this a good path to be on. Sandoval had some interesting things going on in 2021-22 and was in a terrible organization. Makes sense to sign him now rather than trade for a Paxton type in July, and he may look good enough to cleanly slot into Giolito's #4 or #5 starter role in 2026.
These deals are always a little annoying because of the lack of instant gratification. But once you get to that second year the AAV always feels like a steal.
The fact we have Liam Hendrix at $5AAV is incredible. We will feel the same about this in 2026.
The fact we have Liam Hendrix at $5AAV is incredible. We will feel the same about this in 2026.
It's hardly as if they're the only team that signs these guys.
And people talk about having depth in the rotation and spending money because better that than further lining their pockets. Well, this is one way to accomplish it. You can't sign eight starters to have on the roster Opening Day just in case one or two go down. But having a guy who could be brought up in the second half is a handy thing to have if/when a couple guys do get hurt.
Yeah, not seeing what Breslow sees in those numbers to think he's worth basically $18M for one season in the future- I never expect these guys to be ready when the most optimistic expected start times are set. Maybe... but I doubt it.
If its all guaranteed $ it's a pretty significant overpay IMO. Hard to believe other teams are lining up to pay close to that so far before he has shown he is back to 2021-2022 stuff.
If they're paying him like 5M or less to rehab + maybe come back this year and get a 13M 1 year team option on 2026, it's less bad.
That's an awfully expensive dumpster.
Maybe we should see what a 36 year old who has pitched 5 innings in two years actually does for us before we declare this move incredible.
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I initially read that as Pablo and got bad flashbacks.
Edit: seems I was beaten to it by a set of bamboo sticks
Edit: seems I was beaten to it by a set of bamboo sticks
This. If he rides to the rescue after the ASB, I'll gladly admit I was wrong, but lately all these signings wind up being, "Well, maybe next year..."
Eh....in this day and age, as a reliever, he really doesn't strike out a ton of guys. Most "strike out" relievers are over 10.0 k/9. But yes he sure does like to walk guys, that's for sure.
He's just never been particularly good. One excellent year in 2022, one so-so year in 2021, and the rest has been pretty bad. Not sure why they bothered with this guy, especially at this price.
Its 9AAV, which is what matter, if they can get even an average season out of him in 26 it’s a huge steal.
If this move means they are out on other moves then yea, it’s disappointing.
I’ll wait until February to make come to that conclusion.
Willing to be he provides more of a value upgrade the second half of this year and next year than Goldschmidt would, and some people are clamoring for Goldschmidt.
Still don't really get it, though.
Still don't really get it, though.
I'm with you here. Must see something they think they can fix with him. We'll have to wait and see how the rest of the offseason plays out, but I'm not expecting this to be the final move for the rotation. If anything, perhaps this move gives Breslow a bit more peace of mind if he needs to include one of our rotation arms in a separate, consolidate "wins" move.
Zacklee!!! I don't get it. This feels like another "look at the smartest guy in the room over there playing 4-D chess... we're clearly all missing something..." sort of move when the most obvious moves are right there.
IDK, his 2022 season was worth 3.7 fWAR, which is more than twice as good as our most valuable starter that year. He just turned 28.
He's good at keeping the ball in the ballpark. Here are the best SP home run rates in 2022-23.
Except he is not a reliever, he has always been a starting pitcher.
He is no ace but over 2022-2023, he put up 293 IP, 3.50 ERA, 121 ERA+, and a 3.63 FIP. That is a pretty good deal for a starter even if you assume the full $18M towards 2026. Even in his injury shortened 2024 season, he had a 3.87 FIP despite a 5 ERA. No guarantees he comes back from the surgery but this is a pretty good gamble IMO.
It’s really not complicated.
Starting pitching is insanely expensive. Getting good starters on one year deals isn’t really a possibility.
One avenue is to get rehabbing pitchers that you like, and spread their AAV over two years and hope to get a strong season out of them.
The risk is essentially nothing when you look at the cost of starting pitching.
Seems like a gamble that Sandoval was pitching hurt for a while before he went under the knife, and that he’ll be something like his 2021-22 self by 2026, with perhaps some prospect that he’ll contribute in the second half of 2025. It does seem that Sandoval’s peripherals deteriorated a bit in the second half of 2023, so there would seem to be some logic behind the gamble, but I don’t know nearly enough about Sandoval to have an opinion as to whether it’s a good gamble.
Sandoval has 3 above average pitches and two extremely good pitches (sweeper + slider) by Stuff+ and an insane whiff rate on his Changeup and Sweeper. His fastball also sucks. This feels like an extremely driveline/breslow/bailey arsenal redeployment that has a chance at significant upside for a $9m AAV. He has also been a pretty good pitcher overall in his career before something happened in 23. This seems like a pretty savvy move, but I don't think it helps the '25 team very much.
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Yes, this is a limited risk way of adding a starter. If he rehabs and then sucks then you're out one year's worth of salary with the cap hit spread out over 2 years. If you sign Burnes or Fried and he suddenly sucks or get injured, you're stuck for way more for 8-9 years.
Yeah, I was just looking at his innings and didn't see big numbers of innings and didn't even look at the games column. Totally my bad there.
This is just what starting pitching costs today, i’m not too broken up about it. Making it basically a 1/$13 million 2026 contract isn’t terrible.
I wish the Sox didn't have a budget ceiling, but they clearly do. I don't think it's crazy to see them whiffing on a FA or missing an extension because they were off by a $3M delta per season for a player and then this cost is sitting there soaking up that "we were just off...."
Yet somehow his FIP has always been reasonable. I have yet to see a study that shows that walks are actually worse than hits for a pitcher to allow. (I get that that if you walk alot, you better not give up hits, especially xbh.)
Sure, and it might work out. I'd definitely prefer 2026 to be a team option and you can see how the rehab/end of 2025 look. TJS is usually successful, but some of these guys never really make it back. It's not a ton of $, but it's still non-trivial money.
What if adding an 18M signing bonus to the current contract offer for a bigger FA they like is the difference between signing him and not signing him? Is it worth having the Sandoval flier over that?
I'm grant that the risk is certainly different, but this move is full of risk, namely the risk that you've paid $18 million to a guy who cannot be relied on to be healthy and may not be very good if he is. There's also the risk that if he is good in 2026, he just flies the coop as a free agent, because lord knows we don't want to pay market rates for healthy pitchers any more. Then you're on to the next reclamation project. Rinse and repeat.
If he was healthy, he would probably be getting a 1 year deal worth between $13M-$17M, so to have him in your system for 2 full years to work with your pitching staff, and possibly get him back for part of this season not for much more money, I don’t really see it as an overpay. The Angels aren’t exactly pitching gurus when it comes to development, so I’m excited to see what we can get out of a guy under 30 who has really good stuff.
Sure, there is risk to every signing, and this is a shorter term and financially limited risk that doesn't effect your cap much or for very long. That is the type or risk you shouldn't mind. It's the long term big cap hit deals that are the risks you worry about. And all pitchers have been shown to be injury risks once they are free agent aged.
There's no way they're out on other moves, and I'm willing to bet they land one of Buehler or Flaherty.
I can't even really squint and see a good pitcher here. Only about a K an inning, and walks too many. But at least we won't get to see him pitch this year!
This is like the joke about the restaurant gone bad - the food is terrible, and such small portions too!!
This is like the joke about the restaurant gone bad - the food is terrible, and such small portions too!!
