Red Sox sign Mitch Moreland

[BoSox Rule]

Moreland obviously won't be able to replace the production of the best non-Mike Trout hitter in the American League last year, but he does have a lot of good qualities and had some tough BABIP luck last year (.266, althought his career mark is still below average at .288.) His wRC+ went down to 87 from 117 the year before despite his line drive percentage going up. If you look at FanGraphs' Tony Blengino's contact quality report you would've expected Moreland to be a league average 1B/DH based on his exit velocity and batted ball profile, not 13% below average. And if he continues to decline, it's only $5 million.

 

[Jordu]

So they replaced Travis Shaw with a more expensive version of Travis Shaw?

I'm not understanding the attraction here.

Wanted Jay Bruce for this spot. Oh well. We f'ing got Chris Sale!

Travis Shaw didn't win a Gold Glove last year. Travis Shaw didn't hit 55 HRs in past two seasons.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Admittedly, I can't remember his defense at all from watching him, but I'm curious about this assertion because when I looked him up earlier, the first thing that jumped out at me was that he has horrible defensive numbers on Fangraphs for his entire career. Not even one season with a positive defensive value, and he has hundreds of innings at 1B over the last few years. He does appear to have a good zone rating on BRef, but other metrics seem to dislike him defensively. What have you seen that made him stand out to you as one of the best in the game?

Refer to the positional defensive adjustment on 1B.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-the-positional-adjustment/

It's an imperfect tool when taken out of context, especially for 1B given the -12 full season adjustment.

Moreland is a very, very good at fielding. I watched plenty of Rangers games spending the last 5 years in Dallas and he passes the eyeball test with flying colors.

 

[Plympton91]

Travis Shaw didn't win a Gold Glove last year. Travis Shaw didn't hit 55 HRs in past two seasons.

Was that the same Gold Glove Award that Derek Jeter got a few times? And we stopped using counting stats a while back, somewhere in the 1980s I think. And, if you're going to use a counting stat, you should check your math.

They had nearly identical OPS in nearly identical PA for 2016. Three of Moreland's past 4 seasosn have been below average, with OBP below .300. As for the defensive benefits, Travis Shaw plays 3B halfway decently, Moreland doesn't. Last I checked, 3B was a more difficult defensive position than first, so I'll go out on a limb and say that Shaw is at least as good as Moreland at 1B. ...chekcing... Yup, Shaw has a 15.2 UZR/150 at 1B over the past two seasons, Gold Glover Moreland checks in at 7.8 UZR/150.

But, Shaw was a key piece in a bullpen upgrade, so I'm not saying they should have kept Shaw. The point was why they are happy just plugging in another platoon 8th place hitter as a DH/1B, instead of getting someone better.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Refer to the positional defensive adjustment on 1B.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-the-positional-adjustment/

It's an imperfect tool when taken out of context, especially for 1B given the -12 full season adjustment.

Moreland is a very, very good at fielding. I watched plenty of Rangers games spending the last 5 years in Dallas and he passes the eyeball test with flying colors.

What's interesting is that Texas never really settled on the guy at 1B until last year. He was either DH OF or 1B. But was always behind someone. Mostly Fielder and they attempted to pass him over for Gallo. Perhaps this move to DH for Hanley will keep him healthy and able to hit 30+ homers next year.

While it's true he's 31 I don't think Moreland was ever comfortable with his spot in Texas. Too many hitting pieces there and he got lost in the shuffle. I think 2017 will be his best season. He's probably going to love working with Chili Davis.

 

[Spelunker]

.250ish BABIP.

Yeah, from his career* .285 right handed. And, conversely, raised his career LH BABIP from .295 to .333 in 2016.

(* Inclusive of 16. Didn't feel like calculating without)

 

[Jordu]

Oops ... 45 home runs not 55. My bad.

Moreland had a SABR Defensive Index of 6.2 last season, first at his position in the AL. Shaw's was 4.9, fifth in the AL at his position.

Moreland's career OPS is 100; Shaw's is 96.

I'll take the defensive upgrade.

 

[Bigpupp]

Was that the same Gold Glove Award that Derek Jeter got a few times? And we stopped using counting stats a while back, somewhere in the 1980s I think. And, if you're going to use a counting stat, you should check your math.

They had nearly identical OPS in nearly identical PA for 2016. Three of Moreland's past 4 seasosn have been below average, with OBP below .300. As for the defensive benefits, Travis Shaw plays 3B halfway decently, Moreland doesn't. Last I checked, 3B was a more difficult defensive position than first, so I'll go out on a limb and say that Shaw is at least as good as Moreland at 1B. ...chekcing... Yup, Shaw has a 15.2 UZR/150 at 1B over the past two seasons, Gold Glover Moreland checks in at 7.8 UZR/150.

But, Shaw was a key piece in a bullpen upgrade, so I'm not saying they should have kept Shaw. The point was why they are happy just plugging in another platoon 8th place hitter as a DH/1B, instead of getting someone better.

It's actually not the same Gold Glove Award that Jeter got a few times. They have revamped the way the award is handed out since then and it has led to Gold Gloves finally going to the best fielders.

FWIW: This article also goes into Moreland's resume:

He topped the AL in SDI (+6.2), UZR (+6), and DRA (+29) and ran a close second in DRS (+8 to Marwin Gonzalez's +9).

 

[DeadlySplitter]

The point was why they are happy just plugging in another platoon 8th place hitter as a DH/1B, instead of getting someone better.

Staying under the luxury tax seems to be a requirement this offseason

 

[Plympton91]

Oops ... 45 home runs not 55. My bad.

Moreland had a SABR Defensive Index of 6.2 last season, first at his position in the AL. Shaw's was 4.9, fifth in the AL at his position.

Moreland's career OPS is 100; Shaw's is 96.

I'll take the defensive upgrade.

The SABR Defensive Index uses all counting stats too. So, those numbers actually show that Shaw is a better first baseman than Moreland on a per game basis, Shaw just gets penalized for the fact that he played a lot of 3B, while Moreland isn't good enough to play there.

Of course, again Shaw isn't really the right opportunity cost here since he was part of a different trade. The question is Moreland at $5 million vs a trade for a better player or paying a higher price in FA.

 

[Jordu]

"The SABR Defensive Index draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts. The three metrics representing batted ball data include Defensive Runs Saved from Baseball Info Solutions, Ultimate Zone Rating developed by noted sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman, and Runs Effectively Defended based on STATS Zone Rating and built by SABR Defensive Committee member Chris Dial. The two metrics included in the SDI originating from play-by-play data are Defensive Regression Analysis, created by committee member Michael Humphreys, and Total Zone Rating."

http://sabr.org/sdi

 

[nothumb]

I'm fine with this as the strategy rather than going all in for a big bat... I just want a RHH 3b / util type guy with some pop to go along with it. I

 

[mauidano]

"The SABR Defensive Index draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts. The three metrics representing batted ball data include Defensive Runs Saved from Baseball Info Solutions, Ultimate Zone Rating developed by noted sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman, and Runs Effectively Defended based on STATS Zone Rating and built by SABR Defensive Committee member Chris Dial. The two metrics included in the SDI originating from play-by-play data are Defensive Regression Analysis, created by committee member Michael Humphreys, and Total Zone Rating."

http://sabr.org/sdi

So translated into English...

 

[IpswichSox]

And given the apparent need to dump him now, why they picked up the option in the first place.

I know, 20/20 hindsight is just that, but if Sale was in their sights, and he clearly was, then this domino was always going to file if they succeeded.

They had five days after the World Series ended to make a decision on Buchholz. The Sale deal was not close to being done at that time. So the right move in early November was to pick up Buchholz' option. Heck, even knowing you were going to land Sale, I would have still picked up Buchholz' option. It gives them depth and the flexibility to trade him to restock the minors or get another piece if there's an injury. Even with his injury and effectiveness history, Buchholz still has value on a one-year deal and more value the more his salary is subsidized.

Dombrowski said during yesterday's Sale news conference that the Sale deal really only began to come together last Friday night, when White Sox GM Rick Hahn called him at home and said he was backing off Chicago's previous demands of current players like Betts and Benitendi. Only then did a deal centered on prospects really come together, Dombrowski said. So that means, when Buchholz' option had to be picked up a month ago, Dombrowski had no idea whether Chicago was going to back down from its previous demands for Sale and that a deal would get done. Again even in 20/20 hindsight, you pick up the option all day long, for the flexibility it gives with depth, for restocking or acquiring a piece. That having been said, my guess is Clay is gone before April 1.

Sorry, this is a thread about Mitch Moreland. I'm pro alliteration and therefore like this signing.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

What's interesting is that Texas never really settled on the guy at 1B until last year. He was either DH OF or 1B.

I have no idea what parallel universe you're getting this from. He has made 88% of his major league starts at first base. They did try him briefly in the OF in 2011, but he has been their #1 first baseman (though not quite an "everyday" 1B) every year except 2014, when he missed most of the year due to ankle woes and eventual surgery. That was also the only year when he DH'd more than 10 games. Here are his starts by position.

 

[Plympton91]

So translated into English...

Counting stats. The more time you spend at the position the higher your score. That's the right thing to do for gold glove calculations, you shouldn't give the gold glove to someone who played 1B really well for 60 games over someone who played there 130 games, even if the per-game number was a little lower. But, for this discussion, the data do not definitively show Moreland to be a better defender at first than Shaw. They show that Moreland played first base well, and played it more often than Shaw (because Shaw, as the better and more versatile defensive player, was often at 3B).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What's interesting is that Texas never really settled on the guy at 1B until last year. He was either DH OF or 1B. But was always behind someone. Mostly Fielder and they attempted to pass him over for Gallo. Perhaps this move to DH for Hanley will keep him healthy and able to hit 30+ homers next year.

While it's true he's 31 I don't think Moreland was ever comfortable with his spot in Texas. Too many hitting pieces there and he got lost in the shuffle. I think 2017 will be his best season. He's probably going to love working with Chili Davis.

Isn't it funny how DD is structuring our 1B/DH positions as if a certain somebody will be penciled in to DH for 120 games in 2017? I've never closed the door on this. Moreland would be a great late inning guy for those 120 games when we are leading after 7 or 8. If you buy the conspiracy it makes for a very nice 3-man rotation.

 

[Van Everyman]

How many more Instagram posts do we need before this becomes a thread?

I hate to ever agree with Cafardo, but I do wonder how the offense does without a thumper in the middle. Even if we believe that guys who "put the fear of God" in their opponents is some intangible mumbo jumbo columnist speak, there's no question in my mind that pitchers and managers pitch around certain guys and make different decisions when those guys are coming up – pitch selection, match ups, etc.

Who is that in the current lineup? Betts?

Pedroia
10 D
X
Betts
Hanley
Sandoval
Moreland
Leon/Vaz
JBJ

Feels like there are enough questions in that lineup—Can Panda come back? Can Hanley be the guy in the second half all year? Will X be the guy in the first half?—to make you wish there was one center of gravity in there. Or at least one or two certainties.

 

[dynomite]

How many more Instagram posts do we need before this becomes a thread?

I hate to ever agree with Cafardo, but I do wonder how the offense does without a thumper in the middle. Even if we believe that guys who "put the fear of God" in their opponents is some intangible mumbo jumbo columnist speak, there's no question in my mind that pitchers and managers pitch around certain guys and make different decisions when those guys are coming up – pitch selection, match ups, etc.

Who is that in the current lineup? Betts?

Pedroia
10 D
X
Betts
Hanley
Sandoval
Moreland
Leon/Vaz
JBJ

I'm not too concerned. As has been noted, the Red Sox scored 100 more runs than anyone in the AL last season, including teams like Toronto and Baltimore that had "middle of the order thump."

The order you posted above has 7 hitters who had an OPS above .800 last season. That's remarkable, and leads to a lot of runs scored throughout the lineup.

Also, given the strength of the 2018 free agent class there could be some power hitters available in July if needed. Plus there's always Allen Craig!

 

[grimshaw]

Feels like there are enough questions in that lineup—Can Panda come back? Can Hanley be the guy in the second half all year? Will X be the guy in the first half?—to make you wish there was one center of gravity in there. Or at least one or two certainties.

Panda and Beni are the biggest keys to me since they are now occupying positions that were bottom feeders last year. League average production out of them would be wonderful. Beni could be well above that, and Pablo well below, but I don't think it's a stretch that they are a combined net improvement over the Holt/Shaw/Hill conglomerate.

If they get that, and X resembles something like 2015, this is a dynamic offense again.

Either way, I think they are top 5.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Of course, again Shaw isn't really the right opportunity cost here since he was part of a different trade. The question is Moreland at $5 million vs a trade for a better player or paying a higher price in FA.

They probably could have gotten a better bat but before this signing, Hanley was our only 1b. Plus, they just traded the farm away. Trading even more prospects for a marginal upgrade probably isn't the best option. I'd have rather seen Pedro Alvarez but he's limited to DH. I guess it's still possible they bring in another bat too, though.

 

[StMic]

He's not serious right?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

How many more Instagram posts do we need before this becomes a thread?

I hate to ever agree with Cafardo, but I do wonder how the offense does without a thumper in the middle.

If you assume the heart of the order will be some configuration of Betts (31), Ramirez (30), Bradley (26), Bogaerts (21), and Moreland/Young (28 combined*), those guys accounted for 136 HR in 2016. The 2016 Red Sox, with Papi in the order, hit 137 HR in the 3-7 spots, 135 in the 2-6.

Just because none of the guys in our projected lineup is a prototypical 40-HR moose, that doesn't mean they don't have "thump". It's just distributed thump. And that's not even counting Pedroia, Benintendi, and Sandoval, all of whom could be good for 15 or more if they are healthy and/or developing as hoped for.

*actually 31, but I pro-rated the number downward to a realistic number of PA for the #7 slot where they seem likely to hit.

 

[the moops]

Panda and Beni are the biggest keys to me since they are now occupying positions that were bottom feeders last year. League average production out of them would be wonderful.

The Sox actually got decent production from LF from the three that played the majority of the innings out there.

Holt 195 PA, 759 OPS
Chris Young 190 PA, 779 OPS
Andrew Benintendi 102 PA, 856 OPS

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

So we intend to replace David Ortiz's production in this lineup with a combination of Mitch Moreland, Pablo Sandoval and Chris Young?

Color me not thrilled about that prospect.

I'm 100% certain that they have 100% cemented their 2017 roster as of December 6, 2016. No changies!

 

[Van Everyman]

To be clear, that is a really good lineup. And also, there's no rule that you need the Cafardian Thumper. After all, the CLE lineup this past year seemed to consist of 9 players who hit .280 with 15 HR and 80 RBIs.

But I do wonder if we are bound to see some regression from certain members of the lineup. JBJ, Leon, and Benintendi (who we can expect pitchers to adjust to at some point) are perhaps the prime candidates, but then you also got a career-ish year out of Betts, obviously.

Again, I'm not trying to be a negative nelly here -- I agree that this looks like a top 5 lineup on paper and the ceiling for most of these guys is quite high. But there is not a single person in that lineup outside of maybe Pedroia (who will be 33 in August) who you can say "pencil him in for X." Which can probably be said for most teams in the post-steroid era, but still.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Admittedly, I can't remember his defense at all from watching him, but I'm curious about this assertion because when I looked him up earlier, the first thing that jumped out at me was that he has horrible defensive numbers on Fangraphs for his entire career. Not even one season with a positive defensive value, and he has hundreds of innings at 1B over the last few years. He does appear to have a good zone rating on BRef, but other metrics seem to dislike him defensively. What have you seen that made him stand out to you as one of the best in the game?

Not a single first baseman from last year, not Gonzo or Goldie or Belt or Rizzo or Myers had a positive Fangraphs DWAR number. It's that silly big subtraction constant they use for calculating DWAR for first basemen.

 

[grimshaw]

The Sox actually got decent production from LF from the three that played the majority of the innings out there.

Holt 195 PA, 759 OPS
Chris Young 190 PA, 779 OPS
Andrew Benintendi 102 PA, 856 OPS

Holt did better than I thought.
BTW - I have always called Mitch Moreland "Moops Moreland," so I hope you don't mind.

 

[foulkehampshire]

How many more Instagram posts do we need before this becomes a thread?

I hate to ever agree with Cafardo, but I do wonder how the offense does without a thumper in the middle. Even if we believe that guys who "put the fear of God" in their opponents is some intangible mumbo jumbo columnist speak, there's no question in my mind that pitchers and managers pitch around certain guys and make different decisions when those guys are coming up – pitch selection, match ups, etc.

Who is that in the current lineup? Betts?

Pedroia
10 D
X
Betts
Hanley
Sandoval
Moreland
Leon/Vaz
JBJ

Feels like there are enough questions in that lineup—Can Panda come back? Can Hanley be the guy in the second half all year? Will X be the guy in the first half?—to make you wish there was one center of gravity in there. Or at least one or two certainties.

Xander had a rough 2nd half, but it was mostly because of a .599 OPS August. The BABIP Gods were not friendly, limiting Xander to consecutive sub .300 marks the last two months. (.256, .280) It can't all be chalked up to luck, as his approach certainly did erode some and he had issues squaring up on the ball. To be fair, he hadn't had a sub .300 BABIP month since August 2014.

He rebounded some in September and finished off the last week of the season pretty hot with a .968 OPS over 24 PA. Despite the struggles, he did post the highest ISO of his career (.151), close to doubled his walk rate (8.1%), hit 21 HR and scored 115 runs.

Despite poor results, he hit more LD and FB in the 2nd half (pulling the ball as well), which typically bodes well for future power/xbh output.

.350 BA Bogaerts was fun while it lasted, but ultimately unsustainable, as consistent .360-.400 BABIP's are pretty rare when you strike out 17-20% of your PA's. Votto does it because he hits a stupid amount of line drives and is arguably the most talented hitter of his generation. Goldy is Votto-light. Trout does everything (hits line drives, hard contact, can beat out GB). Starling Marte is the most interesting comp who annually ranks high on BABIP leaderboards. His aggressive approach, right-handedness, and relatively high K% kinda mirror what we saw of Xander from 2015-mid 2016. However Marte has really good speed, barely hits infield-flies, gets more infield hits, and hits more line-drives. He's a pretty unique type of hitter but it seems to work for him.

Xander is still evolving as a hitter and it seems like he's finally growing into his power potential. I'm optimistic on him taking that next leap and tapping into the tools that made hims such an interesting prospect in the minors. Even if the sum of 2016 is his realistic ceiling, that's a top AL 5 SS.

 

[Drek717]

But, Shaw was a key piece in a bullpen upgrade, so I'm not saying they should have kept Shaw. The point was why they are happy just plugging in another platoon 8th place hitter as a DH/1B, instead of getting someone better.

Because Moreland was willing to sign a 1 year, $5.5M offer yesterday.

Dombrowski isn't going to wait around hoping for a marginal upgrade to settle and the money just isn't there for a substantial one. They likely still have an open roster spot to play with, though I'm hoping that's earmarked for a RH 3B option to backstop Sandoval. There's another shoe to drop with the starting pitchers. If it's Buchholz they free up money. If it's Pomeranz they likely bring back a useful cost controlled piece directly. But this removes one layer of uncertainty.

Also, while Moreland doesn't look like a very good corner OF he's at least passable enough there to check the box as a 5th OF via playing LF and shuffling the other three guys around should one of the OF starters get hurt.

 

[Yossarian]

I tend to cringe whenever anyone blithely suggests that so-and-so can "easily" handle first base even when he's never played it before, but is it crazy to think Chris Young could get some reps there in spring training? He's arguably one of the better bats on the team, and if 1B really does turn into a black hole while Hanley thrives at DH and Sam Travis is not yet ready, CY would at least seem to have the athleticism to handle the switch while getting a good bat into the lineup.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I tend to cringe whenever anyone blithely suggests that so-and-so can "easily" handle first base even when he's never played it before, but is it crazy to think Chris Young could get some reps there in spring training? He's arguably one of the better bats on the team, and if 1B really does turn into a black hole while Hanley thrives at DH and Sam Travis is not yet ready, CY would at least seem to have the athleticism to handle the switch while getting a good bat into the lineup.

The RHH bat for 1B is Hanley. Even if he's "thriving" at DH, there's no reason he can't play at 1B once or twice a week and open the DH spot for Young or any other RHH who might need a day off the field.

 

[Yossarian]

Yeah, I get that, but I thinking more along the lines of trying to get Young's bat into the semi-everyday lineup if it does run into some of the problems Van Everyman discusses. If Moreland sucks, sure you can put Hanley at first, but then who's the DH? You could do Young then, but if Hanley does well as a full-time DH it seems like the other way around makes at least as much sense.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Yeah, I get that, but I thinking more along the lines of trying to get Young's bat into the semi-everyday lineup if it does run into some of the problems Van Everyman discusses. If Moreland sucks, sure you can put Hanley at first, but then who's the DH? You could do Young then, but if Hanley does well as a full-time DH it seems like the other way around makes at least as much sense.

You rotate other position players in the spot as an effort to limit on-field wear and tear, especially for veteran players. Many teams do this. You have Holt who can sub pretty much anywhere in the IF/OF. Marco Hernandez can sub in the middle-infield adequately. Brentz & Young can give our regular outfielders DH days if needed.

Full-time DH's are nice but also hurt roster flexibility. Perhaps giving regulars 10-15 games at DH will provide value in its own way and limit injuries/fatigue. It's really hard to stay healthy and effective 150+ games a year in the field.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Couple quick numbers on what I perceive to be the more important items in terms of projections:

Moreland had a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity last year. That was in the company of Longoria (91.6), Machado (91.2), Braun (91.3), Hanley (91.3), Encarnacion (91.5).

Moreland's Barreled balls per batted ball event was 10.7%. That's in the company of Cespedes (10.5%), Yelich (10.2%), Braun (10.2%), Machado (10.2%), and Tulo (10.2%).

Finally, Moreland's barreled balls per plate appearance was at 6.6%. That's consistent with, again, Cespedes, Yelich, Machado, Braun, Tulo, Arenado, and Beltre.

Based on those 3 metrics, Moreland compares very well to Machado and Braun.

Moreland: 91.2 Avg EV; 10.7% Brl/BBE; 6.6% Brl/PA
Machado: 91.2 Avg EV; 10.2% Brl/BBE; 6.8% Brl/PA
Braun: 91.3 Avg Ev; 10.2% Brl/BBE; 6.2% Brl/PA

Who knows. Seems like he could be ready to break out.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Couple quick numbers on what I perceive to be the more important items in terms of projections:

Moreland had a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity last year. That was in the company of Longoria (91.6), Machado (91.2), Braun (91.3), Hanley (91.3), Encarnacion (91.5).

Moreland's Barreled balls per batted ball event was 10.7%. That's in the company of Cespedes (10.5%), Yelich (10.2%), Braun (10.2%), Machado (10.2%), and Tulo (10.2%).

Finally, Moreland's barreled balls per plate appearance was at 6.6%. That's consistent with, again, Cespedes, Yelich, Machado, Braun, Tulo, Arenado, and Beltre.

Based on those 3 metrics, Moreland compares very well to Machado and Braun.

Moreland: 91.2 Avg EV; 10.7% Brl/BBE; 6.6% Brl/PA
Machado: 91.2 Avg EV; 10.2% Brl/BBE; 6.8% Brl/PA
Braun: 91.3 Avg Ev; 10.2% Brl/BBE; 6.2% Brl/PA

Who knows. Seems like he could be ready to break out.

I agree with all of this. Mitch Moreland has also never had 500 abs in a season nor has he been a starter for the entire season. I believe he's going to have a legit shot at .260-.270 25 homer season. Lefties love Fenway.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I'm a fan of the signing. Moreland has an unignorable chance to be a huge bargain at 5 million, and I'm ok if he turns out to just be the same hitter as Travis Shaw or even slightly worse since Shaw netted the Red Sox a pretty nice reliever and Moreland is pretty good with the glove.

I agree with those that his swing could really bust out in Fenway.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I agree with all of this. Mitch Moreland has also never had 500 abs in a season nor has he been a starter for the entire season. I believe he's going to have a legit shot at .260-.270 25 homer season. Lefties love Fenway.

He does have a habit of lifting a good deal of oppo-fly balls, which would translate well in Fenway's confines. He'll probably lose a couple of HR to right, right center field. Outside of dead pull to pesky, it's generally harder for LHH to hit HR's at Fenway because it gets deep relatively fast. Though from what I can see his HR's to RF are generally not that cheap. Usually of the 400-450 ft variety. He only had a couple sub -370 ones to RF last year. Road parks are much more friendly to offense in the AL East as well. His career splits at all AL East parks are decent, outside of Yankee stadium (I would expect that to change though). Moreland's home/away splits are pretty neutral, which gives me hope that he's not entirely a product of Arlington's friendly jet-streams.

Also, I wonder how the heat in Texas effects some guys. It's absolutely brutal from June - late September. His stats at home in the summer months are not so great.

Career slash lines (BA/OBP/SLG) at home:

March/April: .292/.370/.564
May: .288/.337/.527
June: .224/.302/.375
July: .244/.295/.420
August: .272/.351/.431
Sept/Oct: .198/.282/.308

Generally, his road stats seem a bit better during the summer, despite having to hit in a bunch of pitchers parks in the AL West.

March/April: .237/.294/.354
May: .267/.322/.451
June: .285/.319/.545
July: .228/.281/.375
August: .266/.328/.477
Sept/Oct: .220/.277/.390

I could see good things out of Moreland. certainly his hitting tendencies seem to translate well to this park and division. Maybe if everything breaks well he could put up a .270/.340/480 season with 20-25 HR over 400(ish) at bats against RHP coupled with elite defense at 1B. Equally as possible he doesn't and provides little value outside of depth/PH vs RHP and a late inning 1B defensive replacement for Hanley Ramirez. Which was still something the Sox needed anyways.

 

[mauidano]

Just to throw this out there...do you think that Moreland has the LHH swing made for Fenway such as Adrian Gonzalez did? Will we see a lot of long singles/doubles off the wall?

 

[keninten]

You`ve guys have me convinced. He`s the next greatest DH of all time.

 

[nvalvo]

The other thing about Moreland that's not really quantifiable is that the Rangers so clearly believed in him. For years now, even as they've had so many intriguing power hitters come through, Moreland has outlasted Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, Mike Napoli, Mike Carp, Prince Fielder, and more recently held Joey Gallo in AAA long past when he had much left to prove in Round Rock. They've had good teams in this period: winning teams in six of those seven years, five playoff appearances.

The Rangers obviously think there's something there. They've invested hundreds of 1B PAs in the guy since 2010, even when they had options that outsiders considered more promising, and dealt away or let walk some of those other options.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Just to throw this out there...do you think that Moreland has the LHH swing made for Fenway such as Adrian Gonzalez did? Will we see a lot of long singles/doubles off the wall?

Gonzalez was a different hitter in Boston than he was with SD. The prodigious all-fields power he had was already eroding due to a shoulder surgery in 2010 he never quite fully recovered from. He was smart enough to use the wall to his advantage, but those singles and doubles would have been HR's in years past. Pre-surgery Gonzalez likely hits 40+ HR a year and adds another 50+ doubles as a Red Sox.
Since he was traded from Sox he's maybe hit like 10 opposite field HR over 4+ years. In his prime with the Padres he was hitting 10-15 annually. I think that injury robbed him of a possible HOF career.

Regarding Moreland, I dunno. Maybe but you never really know how a guy will adjust to a new team/park. I can't think of a Sox LHH that saw a huge boost at Fenway within recent memory. I really liked Adam LaRoche's Fenway swing, but SSS.

 

[doc]

To be clear, that is a really good lineup. And also, there's no rule that you need the Cafardian Thumper. After all, the CLE lineup this past year seemed to consist of 9 players who hit .280 with 15 HR and 80 RBIs.

But I do wonder if we are bound to see some regression from certain members of the lineup. JBJ, Leon, and Benintendi (who we can expect pitchers to adjust to at some point) are perhaps the prime candidates, but then you also got a career-ish year out of Betts, obviously.

Again, I'm not trying to be a negative nelly here -- I agree that this looks like a top 5 lineup on paper and the ceiling for most of these guys is quite high. But there is not a single person in that lineup outside of maybe Pedroia (who will be 33 in August) who you can say "pencil him in for X." Which can probably be said for most teams in the post-steroid era, but still.

LOL. The Carfadian thumper, the only dinosaur that went extinct before the asteroid hit.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Uncorroborated wishful projection: Moreland was the rare lefty hitter not well suited to he jet stream out to right center at Arlington. His natural swing was to hit to left center which is extremely unfortunate in that ballpark. Trying to become more of a pull hitter never quite worked for him. In Fenway he'll be rewarded for his natural predilections and be more productive.

Okay, it's an arbitrary assertion. But just maybe . . . .

 

[TonyPenaNeverJuiced]

Uncorroborated wishful projection: Moreland was the rare lefty hitter not well suited to he jet stream out to right center at Arlington. His natural swing was to hit to left center which is extremely unfortunate in that ballpark. Trying to become more of a pull hitter never quite worked for him. In Fenway he'll be rewarded for his natural predilections and be more productive.

Okay, it's an arbitrary assertion. But just maybe . . . .

That was magical. Please write one of these for every member of the team.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I have no idea what parallel universe you're getting this from. He has made 88% of his major league starts at first base. They did try him briefly in the OF in 2011, but he has been their #1 first baseman (though not quite an "everyday" 1B) every year except 2014, when he missed most of the year due to ankle woes and eventual surgery. That was also the only year when he DH'd more than 10 games. Here are his starts by position.

View attachment 13599

Never had 500 ABs in a season. This is telling me he wasn't a regular all that much for Texas until recently. Texas was always looking for a replacement for this guy whether be Gallo Napoli (ended up in The OF too) or otherwise

 

[foulkehampshire]

Never had 500 ABs in a season. This is telling me he wasn't a regular all that much for Texas until recently. Texas was always looking for a replacement for this guy whether be Gallo Napoli (ended up in The OF too) or otherwise

The lack of at-bats can be explained by him being somewhat injury-prone, streaky, and mostly horrific vs LHP. He's really more of a complementary piece like Johnny Gomes. The aforementioned power potential he never quite tapped into kept the Rangers wanting to play him more than he probably merited, especially since his defense was so good. Every year he'd go on these Ruthian streaks where he'd carry the team for like 2 weeks then disappear for a couple months. Maybe Chili Davis will find something the Rangers didn't.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Never had 500 ABs in a season. This is telling me he wasn't a regular all that much for Texas until recently.

"Until recently" doesn't make sense, at least if your timeframe is Moreland's career: he actually got fewer starts at 1B in 2016 than in 2013, and only a few more than in 2015. Also, 500 AB is a pretty high bar. Only once in the past five years (2013) have more than half the teams in MLB had a guy who got more than 500 AB playing half or more of their games at first. So if you define "regular" using that criterion, then the majority of teams in any given year have no regular at first base.

What he has basically been is a "platoon-plus" guy, starting against most of the RHP and a little over half the LHP. Whether you want to call that a "regular" or not is up to you, but either way, it's a role that hasn't changed significantly (except in response to injury) over the past four years.

 

[grimshaw]

I just think he's a more expensive version of Travis Shaw who said "Yup, I'm worth about 1yr 5 million. May as well go somewhere I'll win something."

My guess is, the Red Sox think he's better served as a part timer than Shaw at this point of each of their careers.

I'm expecting almost nothing from him, but if he's Moreland from 2015 and Farrell maximizes his strengths, then it's a nice bonus. Otherwise he's a low .obp match up guy who is worth about a half win.

Edited: Moreland's decent year was 2015 not 2014

 

[Devizier]

Moreland was injured in 2014 (I think you're hoping for 2015).

Should pick up some XBH from the wall, given the ~20 feet difference between Arlington and Fenway in left through center.

Might lose some HR to right although there seems to be an "all or nothing" outcome to his pulled fly balls. Either they're way out or way short. Wonder why that is.