Red Sox sign Kenley Jansen
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
That's the only time in my life when I felt like there was NO WAY the Sox were going to lose, when Koji took the mound holding onto a lead in the 9th inning. I've never ever been more confident in a pitcher - even over Pedro, which is saying something if you know my affection and respect for Pedro. There's never been - and never will be - anything like the feeling of a Sox' lead with Koji taking the mound.
| Player | Saves | Opportunities | Blown Saves | BS/Opp |
| Hansel Robles |
2 |
8 |
6 |
75.00% |
| Matt Strahm |
4 |
8 |
4 |
50.00% |
| Ryan Brasier |
1 |
5 |
4 |
80.00% |
| John Schreiber |
8 |
11 |
3 |
27.27% |
| Jake Diekman |
1 |
4 |
3 |
75.00% |
| Matt Barnes |
8 |
10 |
2 |
20.00% |
| Garrett Whitlock |
6 |
8 |
2 |
25.00% |
| Tanner Houck |
8 |
9 |
1 |
11.11% |
| Kaleb Ort |
1 |
2 |
1 |
50.00% |
| Austin Davis |
0 |
1 |
1 |
100.00% |
| Jeurys Familia |
0 |
1 |
1 |
100.00% |
Edit - changed BS% to BS/Opp. I agree that the use of the word "Opportunity" is dumb here, but blame MLB for making me reverse engineer where the blowns saves came from - https://www.mlb.com/redsox/stats/pitching/save-opportunities
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I’m gonna enjoy Kenley Jansen on my team. He seems like a real sweetheart.
View: https://twitter.com/kenleyjansen74/status/1538704501590347776?s=46&t=4-E4WiXGn7VlK78yugPunw
From his Instagram
View: https://twitter.com/kenleyjansen74/status/1538704501590347776?s=46&t=4-E4WiXGn7VlK78yugPunw
From his Instagram
Two years at reasonable money. It's an improvement but buckle up for sure. Twitter is full of fans who were happy to be off his ride when he moved on. It's more a statement of how bad we are in the save department and how the other options aren't that great either. Having an actual closer puts all the other pieces into a more firm place and usually that is a net positive. It'll mostly be fine but keep the Pepto handy.
Yeah, not sure what metric is being used for "opportunities" & if blown saves in the same game as saves counts only once or something. The general point is that the Red Sox bullpen kind of sucked last year - mostly because of all the bad pitchers who pitched.
ETA - probably more likely a 3 inning save in a game that isn't close might not count as a save opportunity but counts as a save?
Jansen is a good pitcher but as has been noted upthread, he can put runners on base. Those expecting lots of saves may not be disappointed but people hoping for lots of clean innings may be in for a rude awakening.
Some more in comparison to using your best reliever in the optimal situations. I am not saying that Jansen is worse than what they had on the roster last year.
Ideally the Sox would have pitchers better than Jansen in the highest-leverage places in the 6-8 innings if they're going for the postseason. Or if Jansen ends up being your best reliever you use him earlier on. But that's not what's going to happen because he is a "Proven Closer."
It's not going to be optimal usage to always give Jansen the save opportunities, but that's sort of the price of buying this kind of guy. On the flip side, it's hard to find elite relievers in general and there is value in not having to worry about the 9th even if you hope to get better relievers than your closer on the roster. That's all I was saying.
We hand-wring on Xander, and his leaving is potentially a big hole, but all through 2022, the biggest weakness in a glut of glaring weaknesses was the bullpen.
This helps. It's not an onerous contract that we'll be cursing for years to come.
Is he a shutdown closer? I don't follow the Dodgers closely enough to tell, but he did have a habit of coming up small in big moments in the post-season. For this to adversely impact the Sox, of course, they actually have to make the post-season. Having gone through the Craig Kimbrel experience in 2018, this isn't a showstopper.
Count be down as for the signing.
This helps. It's not an onerous contract that we'll be cursing for years to come.
Is he a shutdown closer? I don't follow the Dodgers closely enough to tell, but he did have a habit of coming up small in big moments in the post-season. For this to adversely impact the Sox, of course, they actually have to make the post-season. Having gone through the Craig Kimbrel experience in 2018, this isn't a showstopper.
Count be down as for the signing.
Jansen "coming up small" in the postseason.... Here's his postseason game log.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=janseke01&t=p&year=0&post=1
59 appearances
2.20 era
0.79 whip
12.9 k/9
12 games he gave up a run or more (12 games in 59 = 1 out of 5)
5 games he gave up 2 runs or more (5 games in 59 = 8%)
20 saves
4 blown saves
3 wins, 2 losses, 2 holds
He had one meltdown game in 2016, when he went 0.1 ip allowing 4 er. Take that away (I know you can't, because it happened, but still, work with me) and his numbers are: 65.0 ip, 32 h, 14 r, 12 er, 17 bb, 94 k, 1.66 era, 0.75 whip, 13.0 k/9
I mean, it's not Mariano (who is?) but those are pretty darned good playoff numbers. And of course keep in mind that these stats are going up against the best teams always because that's how it works in the playoffs.
Here was his 2021 playoff run: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 14 k, 0.00 era, 0.57 whip, 18.0 k/9
Last 2 seasons' playoff stats: 9.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 16 k, 1.00 era, 0.56 whip, 16.0 k/9
He's been actually pretty incredible in the playoffs. Like, dominant. His playoff numbers are as good as, or better than, his already impressive regular season numbers.
Yes, I too, was shocked to actually see the data, because I know how it "feels".
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=janseke01&t=p&year=0&post=1
59 appearances
2.20 era
0.79 whip
12.9 k/9
12 games he gave up a run or more (12 games in 59 = 1 out of 5)
5 games he gave up 2 runs or more (5 games in 59 = 8%)
20 saves
4 blown saves
3 wins, 2 losses, 2 holds
He had one meltdown game in 2016, when he went 0.1 ip allowing 4 er. Take that away (I know you can't, because it happened, but still, work with me) and his numbers are: 65.0 ip, 32 h, 14 r, 12 er, 17 bb, 94 k, 1.66 era, 0.75 whip, 13.0 k/9
I mean, it's not Mariano (who is?) but those are pretty darned good playoff numbers. And of course keep in mind that these stats are going up against the best teams always because that's how it works in the playoffs.
Here was his 2021 playoff run: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 14 k, 0.00 era, 0.57 whip, 18.0 k/9
Last 2 seasons' playoff stats: 9.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 16 k, 1.00 era, 0.56 whip, 16.0 k/9
He's been actually pretty incredible in the playoffs. Like, dominant. His playoff numbers are as good as, or better than, his already impressive regular season numbers.
Yes, I too, was shocked to actually see the data, because I know how it "feels".
Here's something interesting.
Among the 473 MLB pitchers who threw at least 500 pitches last year, Kenley Jansen gave up the third-highest rate of fly balls hit to right field-per-pitch thrown, per Savant. But the average exit velocity of those fly balls is only 87.4 mph, which ranks 315th of those 473 pitchers.
Fenway Park is a pretty good place for a pitcher who gives up a lot of lazy fly balls to right field.
Also interesting is that the Yankees currently staff the three MLB pitchers who were least likely to give up a fly ball to right field in 2022: Lou Trivino, Clay Holmes and Albert Abreu.
Among the 473 MLB pitchers who threw at least 500 pitches last year, Kenley Jansen gave up the third-highest rate of fly balls hit to right field-per-pitch thrown, per Savant. But the average exit velocity of those fly balls is only 87.4 mph, which ranks 315th of those 473 pitchers.
Fenway Park is a pretty good place for a pitcher who gives up a lot of lazy fly balls to right field.
Also interesting is that the Yankees currently staff the three MLB pitchers who were least likely to give up a fly ball to right field in 2022: Lou Trivino, Clay Holmes and Albert Abreu.
I'm a fan of anything that allows all the other relievers to move up by an inning. Kanley got things done last year with not the highest velocity but excellent spin rate, so that is a good sign for preventing an age-related dropoff.
Edit: i.e. Full tilt PART time.
Edit: i.e. Full tilt PART time.
"Intentional balking" could be a thread title. It could be *every* thread title.
This isn't correct either.... as there are many times you come into a game and don't get a save or a blown save, but it's still a potential save opportunity. Example: you enter the game in the 6th inning with a 10-0 lead... get a couple of outs and are replaced. That doesn't show up on the table above, BUT if you gave up 10 runs you'd have been charged with a blown save, since it was a "potential" save situation. (Or more realistically, you come in the game in the 8th inning up 2-1, and have a clean inning, and hand it off to the closer in the 9th - again, you don't get a save, but if you gave up a run you would have a blown save). The correct metric should be blown saves / save opportunities. I *think* a save oppporutnity is blown saves + saves + holds.
You can have multiple blown saves in a single game..... even if you win that game, so it's just a completely useless stat IMO.
I mean...it's correct. It's just not necessarily that descriptive or useful.
The important thing is, the less bad pitchers who you pitch when you are winning, the less saves you will blow. Also, the less leads you have, the less saves you will blow, but that seems like a bad strategy overall.
Disagree.
Any pitcher that enters the games after the 5th inning with a lead has a save opportunity, whether or not there is any intention of him pitching the rest of the game. That number does not show up in that table. It only shows the subset of instances where that pitcher gave up the lead (blown save) or finished the game and held the lead (save). The vast majority of relief appearances are missing from that table.
Agree.
One of my favorite family memories was when Koji came in to close out the 2013 World Series. As they came back from commercial, and showed Koji warming up, my then 6 year old son turns to me (I can vividly see this happening) and says "It's about to get really loud in here." Even a 6 year old knew it was over when Koji came in to pitch.
All I think about with Jansen is the 2018 World Series when he was not great. But that was a particularly potent offensive team.
I knew I was somewhat setting myself up for this post, but my main source of memories were the 2018 World Series. 2 consecutive games with blown saves (so half of his post-season BS) and a scoreless/hitless third appearance in the 5 -1 finale.
Yeah--you only show up as a middle reliever on that table if you did a bad thing. Is "blown hold" a thing? It should be "holds" + "saves" on one side of the ledger and blown saves on the other..
Exactly. A "blown hold" is classified simply as a "blown save" when everyone knows there was zero intention of having the reliever stick around for the save.
Here is the information I was actually trying to convey in simpler terms. The point being to show that most blown saves come from middle relievers not closers, so Kenley's save % isn't really that big of a deal, but his overall effect on the quality of the innings that are being pitched is.
The "Opportunities" comes from mlb.com & made me reverse engineer the blown saves. They seem to completely misdefine that column, though:
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/stats/pitching/save-opportunities
| Player | Saves | Blown Saves |
| Hansel Robles | 2 | 6 |
| Matt Strahm | 4 | 4 |
| Ryan Brasier | 1 | 4 |
| John Schreiber | 8 | 3 |
| Jake Diekman | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Barnes | 8 | 2 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Houck | 8 | 1 |
| Kaleb Ort | 1 | 1 |
| Austin Davis | 0 | 1 |
| Jeurys Familia | 0 | 1 |
The "Opportunities" comes from mlb.com & made me reverse engineer the blown saves. They seem to completely misdefine that column, though:
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/stats/pitching/save-opportunities
|
It's kinda like this other little baseball stat quirk that always stuck with me--well not really anymore, cuz fielding percentage ain't really a thing any more, but you'd add up putouts, assists, and errors, and get total chances. But OFers would get a lot more chances that never show up--ball hit in gap, OF has to hustle, makes play cutting off ball, fires strike back to IF to hold runner to single. ZERO total chances.
| Player | Saves | Holds | BS | Fail % |
| Jeurys Familia | 0 | 1 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Hansel Robles | 2 | 7 | 6 | 40.00% |
| Kaleb Ort | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33.33% |
| Austin Davis | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25.00% |
| Ryan Brasier | 1 | 13 | 4 | 22.22% |
| Matt Strahm | 4 | 13 | 4 | 19.05% |
| Jake Diekman | 1 | 12 | 3 | 18.75% |
| Garrett Whitlock | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16.67% |
| Matt Barnes | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14.29% |
| Tanner Houck | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10.00% |
| John Schreiber | 8 | 22 | 3 | 9.09% |
| Tyler Danish | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Hirokazu Sawamura | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Zack Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
Also, for people complaining about postseason stats, do they not know that in the postseason you can't fatten up on the Rangers and Tigers? These are his numbers against the top competition. They should look worse than his regular season numbers. And they still look pretty solid!
3rd slowest average pitch time in the majors last year. Will be interesting.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-tempo
I don't think you can count on Sale. I think Paxton is iffy at best.
The point of course is that every WS team had a dominant closer. Whether Jansen is the next one is yet to be determined but personally I like the idea of having a 9th inning guy.
I wanted Houck to be the closer, I think over a full season he'd put up pretty similar numbers to Jansen, but maybe they're concerned about his back. Or if he does end up being the centerpiece of a trade for a useful position player then this would make much more sense. They seem overloaded with RHPs in the pen right now.
Can you ever too many good RH relievers, though? I think Houck can probably be even more useful in a relief ace / Whitlock type role. Or, of course he could start or be trade bait. Nice to have some options. Can’t have too many good arms.
The 2018 Red Sox didn't have a dominant closer. Kimbrel was very good, especially in the regular season. But he was an absolute mess in the playoffs.
He pitched in 9 games in the playoffs, and allowed runs in 5 of those 9 games. Here was his postseason stat line that year:
10.2 ip, 9 h, 7 r, 7 er, 8 bb, 10 k, 5.91 era, 1.59 whip, 8.4 k/9
He didn't technically blow any saves, but that was only because he never came into a game with just a one-run lead. In the four games he pitched where he didn't allow any runs, they had leads of 4-1, 8-4, and 4-2, and in one game they were tied 1-1.
Sure, but he was a key element in racking up all those regular season wins to let them cruise into the playoffs and keep homefield throughout. That campaign probably provided some secondary effects that paid off in October. And a steady closer giving a few extra wins might be huge now if it's the make or break in having a bye.