Red Sox sign Justin Turner

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Ort seems like the most likely person to be DFA's. Though I have to think there are potential trades in the work.

Right now the OF defense projects to be pretty ghastly.
I think that's why all the talk of Kike moving off of CF is folly. He, at least, gives them an anchor in the middle of the outfield.
 

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Yes. I think there are reasons to be optimistic for the rotation. Is there significant risk? Sure. But I really like Whitlock and Bello. If Sale gives them anything there is some upside, there.

Right now the Outfield Defense features a bad left fielder playing right, a bad left fielder playing left, and a really good centerfielder who has trouble staying on the field. That defense is going to be brutal. Refsnyder was an awesome find last season and I'm excited to have him as the fourth outfielder, but it's not like he's a great defender, either.

I actually like Verdugo as a player, but it's pretty clear that they need to trade him and replace him with someone who can play RF at Fenway.
Does he really though?
2017 140 games, 2018 145, 2019 130, 2021 134
He had an injury plagued 2022, but he really doesn't have a bad history.
 

Benj4ever

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Yes. I think there are reasons to be optimistic for the rotation. Is there significant risk? Sure. But I really like Whitlock and Bello. If Sale gives them anything there is some upside, there.

Right now the Outfield Defense features a bad left fielder playing right, a bad left fielder playing left, and a really good centerfielder who has trouble staying on the field. That defense is going to be brutal. Refsnyder was an awesome find last season and I'm excited to have him as the fourth outfielder, but it's not like he's a great defender, either.

I actually like Verdugo as a player, but it's pretty clear that they need to trade him and replace him with someone who can play RF at Fenway.
There seem to be quite a few fans who aren't going to be pleased no matter what Bloom does, but I agree 100%, there is a lot of hope for this rotation. It's called prospects....And if Bloom can't acquire good prospects, then yes, it will be time for him to leave...in 2025 or so. Building a ball team takes time, and it's way too early to make a call on Chaim.
 
May 18, 2021
5
LF Masataka Yoshida L
CF Kiké Hernandez R
3B Rafael Devers L
SS Trevor Story R
1B Tristan Casas L
DH Justin Turner R
RF Alex Verdugo L
2B Christian Arroyo R
C Reese McGuire L

UT Enmanuel Valdez L
UT Christian Arroyo R
OF Rob Refsnyder R
C Connor Wong R

Sign Segura or Iglesias to push Arroyo to the bench and I’ll go to war with this group.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Can we please stop with Kiké batting 2nd?

In 1769 career PAs vRs he is hitting

.226/.291/.380

Cora should be fired if he hits him 2nd. Kiké's OBP vR for the Sox for the last 2 yrs is .275 and .321. He needs to be at the bottom of the lineup ffs
 

torpedero

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signing a 38-year old declining player instead of re-signing a 35-year old declining player is a huge bridge towards the future
 

mauf

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Turner has only started 14 games at 1B in his career. That's out of nearly 900 starts. He also hasn't played an inning there since 2016. I wouldn't pencil him in as much more than emergency option there. I think he'll primarily DH and give Devers some days off in the field.

So, a tiny bit more useful than JD. Offensively, they're pretty much a wash. Turner is trending downwards, and so is JD. JD was marginally better last season, but he looked cooked at the end of the season, so who knows who's the better bat in 2023.
This is where I’m at. It’s entirely possible that one of JDM and Turner will be awesome and the other will suck, but as we sit here now, it’s hard to see much difference between the two. Their stat lines for 2022 were substantially the same. Their projections for 2023 are substantially the same. And the story beyond the stats is a mix of reasons for optimism and pessimism for both of them. Turner’s ability to play infield makes him the more valuable of the two, so I’m not surprised he got a bit more money, plus the 2nd year player option (which he’ll only exercise if he’s hurt or wretched). And Turner is certainly the better fit on our roster, which already boasts two defensively challenged corner outfielders (Yoshida and Verdugo).

There are a lot of holes on our roster. This fills one of them.
 

Shaky Walton

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This is where I’m at. It’s entirely possible that one of JDM and Turner will be awesome and the other will suck, but as we sit here now, it’s hard to see much difference between the two. Their stat lines for 2022 were substantially the same. Their projections for 2023 are substantially the same. And the story beyond the stats is a mix of reasons for optimism and pessimism for both of them. Turner’s ability to play infield makes him the more valuable of the two, so I’m not surprised he got a bit more money, plus the 2nd year player option (which he’ll only exercise if he’s hurt or wretched). And Turner is certainly the better fit on our roster, which already boasts two defensively challenged corner outfielders (Yoshida and Verdugo).

There are a lot of holes on our roster. This fills one of them.
Well said. This is a plus, and is also not a silver bullet.

With respect to the covid/pictures comments, while it was arguably reckless and inconsiderate to do what he did, I think that in the immediate afterglow of a title (the end goal of years and years of professional toil), it's not surprising that he lost his mind for the festivities. However you view that, for me the question is how the Dodgers players and coaches reacted to Turner thereafter. If he was still liked and respected, which from a zillion miles away seems to be the case (he wasn't traded and I don't remember any stories about residual negative affects in the clubhouse), then I would think that people viewed this as, at worst, an understandable mistake made in the moment.

I don't know about others, but I saw lots of examples of people acting inconsistently with respect to masking, and with allowances being made for really unique times. That doesn't make it right, but losing respect for a guy under these circumstances (as some posters said) seems a bit harsh.
 

circus catch

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LF Masataka Yoshida L
CF Kiké Hernandez R
3B Rafael Devers L
SS Trevor Story R
1B Tristan Casas L
DH Justin Turner R
RF Alex Verdugo L
2B Christian Arroyo R
C Reese McGuire L

UT Enmanuel Valdez L
UT Christian Arroyo R
OF Rob Refsnyder R
C Connor Wong R

Sign Segura or Iglesias to push Arroyo to the bench and I’ll go to war with this group.
Agreed. Starting to smile.
 

LostinNJ

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signing a 38-year old declining player instead of re-signing a 35-year old declining player is a huge bridge towards the future
It is, actually. Could there be any better indication of Bloom's intentions than this signing? Turner is a place holder, and the real Chaim Bloom Red Sox will come out of the chrysalis in 2025.
 

geoflin

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If I understand correctly and the contract structure is what has been reported recently, $15 M year 1 and $6.7 M year 2, it seems almost certain that if he has a good year he opts out and if he has a bad year he opts in. Hopefully he has a good year and opts out, in which case the Red Sox have paid him $15 for 1 year. If he continues to decline they're on the hook for $22 M for 2 bad years. I like this contract much more for Turner than for the Sox although, given what's left out there, I'm still glad they signed him.
 

Alex Cole's Rec Specs

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LF Masataka Yoshida L
CF Kiké Hernandez R
3B Rafael Devers L
SS Trevor Story R
1B Tristan Casas L
DH Justin Turner R
RF Alex Verdugo L
2B Christian Arroyo R
C Reese McGuire L

UT Enmanuel Valdez L
UT Christian Arroyo R
OF Rob Refsnyder R
C Connor Wong R

Sign Segura or Iglesias to push Arroyo to the bench and I’ll go to war with this group.
I'm still not sold on Story returning full time to shortstop, but if he's the guy going forward, I agree that Jean Segura makes a lot of sense for the 2023 Red Sox. He's still a plus defensive infielder with an above-average bat, and at this point his Fangraphs projected contract of 2 years/$26 million seems doable with a reduced number of suitors out there.

If the Red Sox sign Segura to play 2B, the one hole left I see is outfield defense; Bloom either needs to swap out Verdugo for Max Kepler via some trades, or acquire a plus defensive outfielder to supplement Refsnyder; I'm thinking someone like Adam Duvall, Michael Taylor, or Victor Robles, probably in that order.
 

grepal

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Jul 20, 2005
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Have to think with an off season to work out Big Papi would be a better Dh. Nothing against JT, I hope he kills it here, but really, is he even as good as JD right now?
 

simplicio

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Can we please stop with Kiké batting 2nd?

In 1769 career PAs vRs he is hitting

.226/.291/.380

Cora should be fired if he hits him 2nd. Kiké's OBP vR for the Sox for the last 2 yrs is .275 and .321. He needs to be at the bottom of the lineup ffs
I agree with you on the numbers; I put him 2nd on my list in deference to the team seemingly wanting him early in the lineup despite the stat line, while considering that indications are Yoshida will take the actual leadoff spot this year.
Looking at his splits though, he's only very rarely been used actually batting early in the lineup outside leadoff; his most common usage in Boston outside of 1st is 7th/8th. So with that in mind:
Yoshida
Story
Devers
Turner
Casas
Arroyo/TBD
Verdugo
Hernandez
McGuire
 

Tim Salmon

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Have to think with an off season to work out Big Papi would be a better Dh. Nothing against JT, I hope he kills it here, but really, is he even as good as JD right now?
Turner's ability to play the field makes him better than Martinez right now, because it means we can use the DH slot to get another (presumably) above-average bat in the lineup when someone needs a day off or a platoon.

On paper, letting Martinez walk and signing Turner is a good move for this team as currently constructed.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Whenever you have a chance to receive a financial option for free, you take it, because options have value. It's basic finance.

I would rather have had Josh Bell, but Turner's not a bad consolation prize.
This. Bell is a guy I really wanted too. A career 120 OPS+ whom will only be 30 next year coming off a down tenure in SD (and all those huge parks out west) whom could have been the Red Sox DH for the next 4 to 5 years. He hits the crap out of the ball and would have provided a nice hedge at 1b with a profile that looks good against both RPH and LHP. If he wanted to play 1b, you could also have DH'ed Casas or traded him for something of value. Obviously didn't happen, but I really liked the idea of it, too.

I'd like to think we can have a discussion on not liking a plan (re signing Turner and the off-season as a whole) as opposed to trying to pretend he isn't a good hitter or that the deal somehow sucks.

I don't like the plan of relying on a lot of old players, injured players or players whom have a history of not being very good with occasional outlier seasons to all hit and maybe you make it to the divisional series. It's the Tampa Bay / Oakland model that has won zero titles, but the goal of the team is apparently to simply remain competitive and hope on prospects. I don't care about being a middler, but I can also understand why financially that has appeal to a business and why it has appeal to folks in a fanbase - just not my personal preference. The only difference I see between missing the playoffs by 1 game or 20 is that you get a worse draft pick and you (probably) didn't trade old pieces for prospects.

Or - put another way, I'd 1,000,000% rather be the Red Sox from 2010 - 2020 with our two titles but also several years of pure suck than the 2000-2014 As whom won a ton of division titles and wild card berths, I don't believe ever finished worse than 3rd in the AL West and won zero titles. This model looks a lot more like the latter than the former. I hope that is only "the plan" for 2023 and 2024 and not an organizational shift.

Locking up Devers would make me feel a LOT better about our commitment to paying top of the roster talent.



On Hernandez, he is a fine defensive player, and he's generally pretty durable. (Players like Hernandez and Story getting injured last year are just bad luck. Players like Arroyo, Sale, Paxton etc being injured is totally predictable because they've been injured a ton and / or they're in their mid to late 30s coming off major injury or injuries in Sale's case). My issue with Hernandez is that he's been a "full time" player for 7 seasons and 5 of them he's been between terrible to below average (OPS+ from 64-92 with two outliers of 108 and 117; wRC+ between 67-92 with 109 and 118 outliers) offensively. Statistically speaking, he has a much greater likelihood of being a terrible offensive player than a good one. Hernandez being injured is "bad luck"; Hernandez having an OPS+ / wRC of around 80 is what one should expect based on the past 7 years of data, that's not bad luck.
 
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simplicio

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That's a fair take. To me, looking at the farm and the Story/Yoshida signings, I think they're viewing the team as having a 24-27 window, and any '21 style surprises they can pull out of old/cheap guys on short term contracts before then are gravy. Of course we'll see how they handle extensions to the young players as they arrive, and if they can convince Devers to be a part of that future (but if not, trade him now please).
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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That's a fair take. To me, looking at the farm and the Story/Yoshida signings, I think they're viewing the team as having a 24-27 window, and any '21 style surprises they can pull out of old/cheap guys on short term contracts before then are gravy. Of course we'll see how they handle extensions to the young players as they arrive, and if they can convince Devers to be a part of that future (but if not, trade him now please).
Not to be argumentative, genuinely curious - why do you say 2024-27 as opposed to something like 2026-29?

Of our top 10 prospects, the only ones expected to even be up to start the 2024 season (per Sox Prospects, and I think of them as a legitimate source) are Casas, Rafaela, Mata and Walter, the last two of whom they project on their own scale as "bench / utility" players, which for pitchers I'll equate as 5th starters / swingmen.

Based on what we have under contract / control for 2024 (not to mention 2023) and our present spending models, you're looking at something like C - McGuire, 1b - Casas, 2b - Story, 3b - I'll guess "Josh Donaldson" since that seems about our spending pattern; SS - I'll guess "Elvis Andrus"; LF - Yoshida, CF - Rafaela(?), RF - Verdugo; DH - I'll guess we "re-sign" Turner with another $15m next year or some such. SP - Whitlock, Bello, Houck, lets guess Mata (or "2024 Michael Wacha) and a 35 year old Chris Sale. That doesn't look like an "open window" kind of starting roster.

To be clear, I think some of the prospects will be really good, some will be "capable players" and some will suck. Kind of how it worked out with Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, Bradley Jr, Doubront, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, and whomever else I'm missing since I just went off the top of my head. Keeping in mind the 2018 team also had huge free agent expenditures (at the time) at DH, SP1 and massive trade acquisitions where we moved high level prospects at SP2 and Closer. I've seen nothing that makes me confident Bloom will sign those kind of deals (Martinez and Price) nor make those kinds of trades (Sale and Kimbrel), and certainly not anytime before the off-season leading into the 2025 campaign.

Could 75% of the prospects hit and THEN Bloom decides to swing massive trades and sign elite talent - in the off-season before 2024 or 2025 - I suppose, but that's a TON that has to go right and very little margin for error.
 

walt in maryland

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I’d imagine Ort will go, he’s really redundant with Mills. Hernandez seems in jeopardy too. After that it starts getting more difficult- a trade of one or two pitchers from the Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata group seems likely. Duran and Dalbec probably don’t last much longer.
My expectation is Mills will be DFA'ed, with the hope he won't be claimed and can be signed to a minor league deal
 

YTF

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I like Verdugo, but I don't like him playing RF every day. He's also a very tradeable asset, given his skills, age and contract.
This is a tough one for me. The Sox have so few major league ready assets that might seem attractive to other teams. Understandably, Verdugo's name is always going to get mentioned here as being tradable, but he's also the type of player that the Sox should be looking to hang onto.
 

Max Power

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This is a tough one for me. The Sox have so few major league ready assets that might seem attractive to other teams. Understandably, Verdugo's name is always going to get mentioned here as being tradable, but he's also the type of player that the Sox should be looking to hang onto.
He's also one of the most popular members of the team. There are just as many number 99 jerseys in the stands as number 11 or number 2.
 

Beomoose

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Don't forget the giant novelty chain that kids are wearing to the park now. His too-frequent slow jogs to First aggravated me a quite a bit this year, but he's capable of being quite a solid bat. I wouldn't call him untouchable by any means, but I sure as heck don't want to ship him out for a bullpen depth guy or starting pitcher with more question marks than wins.
 

simplicio

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Not to be argumentative, genuinely curious - why do you say 2024-27 as opposed to something like 2026-29?

Of our top 10 prospects, the only ones expected to even be up to start the 2024 season (per Sox Prospects, and I think of them as a legitimate source) are Casas, Rafaela, Mata and Walter, the last two of whom they project on their own scale as "bench / utility" players, which for pitchers I'll equate as 5th starters / swingmen.

Based on what we have under contract / control for 2024 (not to mention 2023) and our present spending models, you're looking at something like C - McGuire, 1b - Casas, 2b - Story, 3b - I'll guess "Josh Donaldson" since that seems about our spending pattern; SS - I'll guess "Elvis Andrus"; LF - Yoshida, CF - Rafaela(?), RF - Verdugo; DH - I'll guess we "re-sign" Turner with another $15m next year or some such. SP - Whitlock, Bello, Houck, lets guess Mata (or "2024 Michael Wacha) and a 35 year old Chris Sale. That doesn't look like an "open window" kind of starting roster.

To be clear, I think some of the prospects will be really good, some will be "capable players" and some will suck. Kind of how it worked out with Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, Bradley Jr, Doubront, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, and whomever else I'm missing since I just went off the top of my head. Keeping in mind the 2018 team also had huge free agent expenditures (at the time) at DH, SP1 and massive trade acquisitions where we moved high level prospects at SP2 and Closer. I've seen nothing that makes me confident Bloom will sign those kind of deals (Martinez and Price) nor make those kinds of trades (Sale and Kimbrel), and certainly not anytime before the off-season leading into the 2025 campaign.

Could 75% of the prospects hit and THEN Bloom decides to swing massive trades and sign elite talent - in the off-season before 2024 or 2025 - I suppose, but that's a TON that has to go right and very little margin for error.
To clarify, I don't think the window closes in after '27, that's just how far our current contracts run, and it's silly to really project beyond that based on kids who have yet to be drafted. Hopefully the window never closes!
But yes, I could optimistically see the window opening as early as 2024. Casas and Bello are already here, Rafaela will hopefully arrive and upgrade the Hernandez role late next year, Crawford continues to develop and we finally get to see Mata in action. I think the pieces are arriving now.
Now maybe you're right, Bloom never pays anyone for anything, Devers leaves and we're the Boston A's forever and ever may god help us all. Or maybe with the farm stocked and starting to graduate, Bloom does in fact alter his previous trajectory and start buying/trading to establish and maintain a real contender. We just can't know yet, and saying that he hasn't spent before and therefore will never spend is a fallacy. The organization as a whole hasn't been in the position it's now entering at any point during his tenure.
 
May 18, 2021
5
Can we please stop with Kiké batting 2nd?

In 1769 career PAs vRs he is hitting

.226/.291/.380

Cora should be fired if he hits him 2nd. Kiké's OBP vR for the Sox for the last 2 yrs is .275 and .321. He needs to be at the bottom of the lineup ffs
Kike’s a LRL placeholder here — I‘m assuming Segura (or a trade return who’s even better) would slot in the 2 hole, putting Kike in the more appropriate 8. Agree that a .350 OBP floor should be the required “you must be this tall to hit in the top third of the Red Sox lineup.” For those more attuned to ML rosters, which middle infielders could we realistically target (with Houck+) that would be an improvement on Segura?
 

Al Zarilla

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Turner is OLD, that's the only issue with this signing. If he doesn't hit the wall and crater, this should be a fine addition.

Turner is a Gritty guy:
View attachment 59072


He's like an Animal out there:

View attachment 59071
Turner is OLD, that's the only issue with this signing. If he doesn't hit the wall and crater, this should be a fine addition.

Turner is a Gritty guy:
View attachment 59072


He's like an Animal out there:

View attachment 59071
The Mets didn't use Turner much (just 301 games in his four years there). Maybe saved some career cumulative wear and tear on the body? Have to hope.
 

curly2

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I’d imagine Ort will go, he’s really redundant with Mills. Hernandez seems in jeopardy too. After that it starts getting more difficult- a trade of one or two pitchers from the Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata group seems likely.
In my mind, one of these things is not like the other. I think Mata has a much higher ceiling than any of the others and shouldn't be a "trade him to free up a roster spot" guy. I don't think he's a sure thing because of control issues, but I think if he can't make it as a starter he could be a very good late-innings bullpen guy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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That’s totally fair; I don’t think he’s expendable in the way that the rest of the guys in that grouping are, but could see him being moved out in a multi-player deal that brings back a pitcher (I’d imagine he’d have to be included in a trade for Lopez or one of the Brewers guys, for example).
 

simplicio

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I'd say Crawford pushed his way out of that group this year too. Still okay to trade maybe, but clearly more valuable than Seabold/Winckowski.
 

curly2

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That’s totally fair; I don’t think he’s expendable in the way that the rest of the guys in that grouping are, but could see him being moved out in a multi-player deal that brings back a pitcher (I’d imagine he’d have to be included in a trade for Lopez or one of the Brewers guys, for example).
Yes, trading Mata as part of a deal to get a valuable asset might be the cost of doing business.
 
Dec 8, 2017
56
I think you have to put Turner near the top because he gets on base. There may be another move or two, but for now (with last three years of OBP):

LF Yoshida L
DH Turner R.....350, .361, .372
3B Devers L.....358, .352, .361
SS Story R......303, .329, .363
RF Verdugo L....328, .351, .342
2B Arroyo R.....322, .324
1B Casas L......389, .394, .350 (minors)
CF Hernandez R..291, .337, .304
C McGuire L.....307, .310, .346


I'd start with Casas in 7th spot for a while, then switch him with Verdugo. They won't lead the league, but that lineup will score runs.
 

grepal

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Turner's ability to play the field makes him better than Martinez right now, because it means we can use the DH slot to get another (presumably) above-average bat in the lineup when someone needs a day off or a platoon.

On paper, letting Martinez walk and signing Turner is a good move for this team as currently constructed.
If casas turns into Bobby D or his knee reduces his playing time I can see the use in the field. He is 38 and can give Raffy a day off or a few days at DH so that has value. Me, I'm still holding out for David.
 

cantor44

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I think Turner is a good complimentary signing. I like it. I prefer him to JD, given he can decently play the field, and might come in handy should Casas struggle against LHP. Meanwhile, the Yoshida signing is interesting, and the bullpen clearly improved. Those are all good support signings. If only - IF ONLY - Xander was still on the team, and Bloom aggressively signed a blue chip starting pitcher.

Are we yet convinced that this is all characterological of Bloom?: nibble and nibble around the edges, gun-shy to make the BIG move (and not just shy about offering big contracts, but avoidant of doing anything really risky with conviction, like selling at the deadline last year). Reports that some in the Sox FO feel Bloom is too cautious, asking too many people for input, and so slow to make decisions, bears this out.

But, I guess, there's still time this off-season ...
 

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AB in DC

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Who wins this round of DFA to make room for Turner? I think the 40 is full.
Haven't seen an answer to this yet. Still not seeing Turner on the MLB or ESPN transactions page, so that plus the lack of a 40-man move makes me wonder if there's a hold-up somewhere.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Haven't seen an answer to this yet. Still not seeing Turner on the MLB or ESPN transactions page, so that plus the lack of a 40-man move makes me wonder if there's a hold-up somewhere.
My guess is the hold up is the holidays. Travel this week is nuts. No reason to not wait until next week or even the week after for Turner to fly in for the physical and the actual signing of papers.
 

Ale Xander

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24-27 Window? Here is a list of some of the top young talent in MLB right now. https://theathletic.com/3676269/2022/10/11/mlb-playoffs-top-25-young-players/

These are the star of 24-27 and there is no Red Soxs on it. If the window is 24-27, the Red Sox better start getting great young players soon or we may need to push it back to 27-30, I'm not sure Marcelo Mayer is going to be another Fernando Tatis.
You realize that’s playoff teams only, right?
Devers is a bigger star than 3/5 of that list

(Although he did turn 26)