I think Wood, Cobb and Rodon all fit the bill to varying degrees. They each made a total of 31-35 starts over three seasons before signing multi-year deals with the Giants, which is interesting. Paxton will have made fewer before we decide on the club option.
I agree! And we've paid a small amount to have an option such that, if those 30 innings are promising, we get his next two seasons at an appealing price.
Other than both being left handed starting pitchers who have thrown almost exactly the same number of starts and IP at the same ERA+, with very close career peripherals? Sure, other than that they're different, in that Rodón is younger and was more recently healthy and effective when he signed his deal...
Obviously younger but arguably similar MLB mileage (718 IP to 733 IP), Noah Syndegaard got $21M for one year after throwing only two innings in the same two previous seasons that Paxton threw 21.2 IP.
How many pitchers at Paxton's age throw +/- 60 innings over three years and then become effective, reliable members of contender rotations? Brett Saberhagen is about the only one I can think of off the top of my head. Pitched 67 innings total in 1995, 1996 and 1997. He was 31 at the start of that period. He then had a decent year for the 1998 Red Sox (31 starts, 15-8 with a 119 ERA+) and was having a good year in 1998 (22 starts, 10-6 with a 171 ERA+) when he got hurt again in 1999, which basically ended his career.
Scott Kazmir had a hurt/very bad 2010 and pitched one inning in 2011-12, then came back to have three very good seasons in 2013-15 (83 GS, 531 IP, 3.61 FIP, 8.3 fWAR)
Corey Kluber is in the midst of something like that. He's 36 now, and threw 116 IP in the 2019-2021 span, including 1 IP in the shortened 2020 season. He's made 17 high-quality starts for the Rays this year so far.
And he’s on a 1 year, $8M deal - which seems about what Paxton should probably get, IMO.
Okay, but if Rodón is a questionable comp for Paxton because he's three years younger, surely it matters that Kluber is as old now as Paxton would be at the end of his time in Boston if the club option is picked up.
Boras didn't come up with that contract, it's the same type of contract Eovaldi signed with the Rays in 2017 that eventually got him to the Sox.
Would you (or any of us) have been happy with Paxton on a 1 year, $8M deal when he was only going to pitch one or two months coming off of TJ surgery?
Not really, Eovaldi’s deal included a club option but it wasn’t a “swellopt“ because the value of the option year was the same as the first year.
No, I’m saying that the value of Paxton’s deal coming off this season should likely be about 1/8 and not 2/26. This year, I think he should probably have gotten something similar to what the Dodgers gave Hamels last year.
It was always going to be wait until next year with Paxton. I think anything they might get from him this year was always thought to be a bonus.
Paxton needed to be throwing live BP by the week after the ASG in order to go in a rehab assignment and be back mid to late August. This report states he has been unable to throw live BP, which suggests he is at least a few weeks behind- pushing his potential return to September. So it seems fair to surmise that he’s in danger of running out of time.
There was an update on Kiké Hernandez on Sunday. He's swinging the bat and Cora anticipates his return this month.
Judging from the Cora quote in the short Globe piece, it does seem that Paxton has had a setback. Hard to tell through the rather flimsily worded article and Cora's smokescreen.
Cora appears to say that Paxton had another setback and the Sox are being very cautious.
Given the month has just begun that's a pretty broad brush. Here's hoping it's sooner rather than later.
I don't know really. He's a good defensive CF when he's at 100% and has some extra utility to shift to 2B, etc. if needed. But he's just not hitting this year. Last year his OPS+ was only 107. That was bolstered by a hot July and August - which absolutely counts, but so do the colder months.
Let’s keep this thread to Paxton, please
Here's the tweet:
Not sure if I'm excited that Barnes is close to being back, but this bullpen includes guys worse than him right now so might as well see if he figured anything out.
Have to think Paxton heads out for a rehab assignment next week if he responds well.
If they pick up the option, I believe the 2022 number is adjusted to 6M and then it's a 13M hit each of the next two years. Either that, or it's figured as a 3/32 deal and re-adjusted to a 10.66M annual hit. Regardless, the 2022 number would change based on picking up the option.
Hill is also an example of why a multi-year deal could represent great value. When Oakland signed him to a 1/$6m deal following his 29 and 5 IP seasons they didn’t benefit from a healthy Hill but for one season. I’m sure someone like Hill, who had career earnings of $3m at the time, would have jumped at a second yr of gtd money with a team option for year 3. Instead, the A’s lose him for nothing and the Dodgers benefit by signing him.
Nothing? The A's traded him to the Dodgers (w/Josh Reddick) and Frankie Montas was among the prospects in the return. I think the A's did okay.
