I don't care if they lose a below-market asset in 2019 if he is healthy and pitches like a true ace from 2016 through 2018. I'm not debating the merits of the opt-out. I just don't care right now if he ends up using it or not.
Red Sox sign David Price
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Gonna have a hard time rooting for this guy. He certainly fills what they need so fingers crossed.
I hope he's terrific for three years, opts out and they replace him with someone younger.
Win/Win
Edit- of course it's unlikely he could be good enough to get a better offer at age 33/4 than 4 years at $31M per, so likely we'll be paying for his decline.
Win/Win
Edit- of course it's unlikely he could be good enough to get a better offer at age 33/4 than 4 years at $31M per, so likely we'll be paying for his decline.
We have no idea what the starting pitching market will look like in four years and what $31m will get you. The only question at that time will be whether Price is worth more than 4/124. If the answer is yes, the Sox lose out. If the answer is no, they're still stuck with him and his salary. It's not a positive for the team in any way.
Eno Sarris @enosarris 1m1 minute ago
Wow. Using David Price’s 2016 projection, $8m per win, normal SP aging, $217 is… a $25m bargain. Crazy, impossible, but also possible.
Wow. Using David Price’s 2016 projection, $8m per win, normal SP aging, $217 is… a $25m bargain. Crazy, impossible, but also possible.
The food fight over Greinke and Cueto is going to be fun to watch...guess we have won the Hot Stove, hope it translates this year.
It is impossible to underestimate how much money is in baseball now. Player salaries are at their lowest (relative to revenue) in decades. I suspect the Red Sox attitude is changing because they have so much cash and they are running out of ways to spend it.
Well, we agree that we don't know much about three years from now. I personally see it as a small risk though.
It wasn't days of leaks but Bowden had this deal pretty much nailed earlier today and Verducci and Gammons have been calling this one for a while. Not that it matters or is disturbing...but I just don't see the information flow as all that different than it was under prior regimes.
Putting that aside, we will be hearing about overpays, that they could have gotten Lester for less and they've suddenly abandoned the 30 and Over Rule. Guys like the CHB will be beating those drums..."I'm just saying," they will say. And there's some truth to that, of course. But having a guy like Price in the rotation is just what they needed, and I actually love that Henry is willing to change course. It's takes some big britches to own a mistake so publicly and I'm glad he's got them.
Good day for the Red Sox.
Oh, and it doesn't suck that Price isn't going to be back with the Blue Jays or on the Yankees, who are always in my mind a threat to swoop in and sign a premier free agent, regardless of what they are saying.
for three years and one day.
I used to think this way about opt-outs but I've come around. Have there been any where the signing team has regretted it?
Obviously it will happen one day when a player has a career ending injury and the team is stuck with the contract. But even if he loses a year of TJ (in which case you lose that year with or without the optout) he could still very easily opt out anyway and get a longer, higher total deal in 2019 onwards.
I really dislike giving more than three or four years to any pitcher over 30 but as,others have said, its not our money.
Let the acceptance of Sox bat flips and, ultimately, the healing begin.
Let the acceptance of Sox bat flips and, ultimately, the healing begin.
Me too. In honesty it's a 3 year/$93 million deal. If he does what he's supposed to he will opt out and they'll get out of any possible albatross years.
Giving an opt-out to the player is a lose-lose for the club. Either he's not worth it and they're stuck with him or he's worth it and they lose him (or have to pay him more money). The situation where the player thinks he's worth more but the club thinks he's worth less so he opts out and everyone is happy is a fantasy.
A player can have a career-ending injury and stick the team with the contract with or without an optout. The downside is in the other direction--that a team might wish they could continue to employ the guy at his contract price, because he's doing as well as possible, but they have to go looking for other solutions. And that's not really such a horrible downside--but such as it is, it's the only impact of the optout, so in that sense, the optout is bad for the team.
Well, no, it's a 3 year, $93 million deal with a player option for a 4 year, $124 million extension.
Guys, you can decide not to worry about the potential downside of having him leave after three strong years, but there is no upside to the opt out for the team. It's for him, not for us. The deal would, by definition, be more team-friendly without it.
I don't think a single team has regretted the opt-out itself. They may have regretted re-signing the player after he opted out, but the opt-out itself is only half of the equation.
I think with the number of young pitchers the Red Sox have, there's a good chance that in three years, they can feel comfortable letting Price walk away if he opts out. It might not be ideal or perfect value or whatever, but they shouldn't be in a position where they're over a barrel needing to re-sign the guy because the rotation will fall apart or be horrible without him.
Another scenario could be that another team loses a couple of LCS or World Series in the first 3 years of Price's contract. Perhaps he's willing to opt out, take somewhere close to what he's getting in Boston (maybe even a little less) for the chance to be the difference maker for that team and have a shot at multiple championships.
The game changes quickly, so it's nice that our ownership changes with it. Not to be overlooked: having anywhere from two to six starting players on pre-arb contracts. [Mookie, X, either catcher, Ed-Rod, JBJ, Shaw.] That makes it a lot easier to swallow a huge contract.
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 2m2 minutes ago
The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal.
The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal.
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 28s28 seconds ago
The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. #STLCards
We beat STL again
The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. #STLCards
We beat STL again
I'm going to have a hard time rooting for him as well, but if you had to bet on one pitcher that's available, he's the one to me. Got to love his mechanics and his results.
I think the upcoming CBA negotiations will play into the opt-out equation as well. We could see another big jump in top-end salaries if the tax threshold jumps, much like the short contract flurry in the NBA with the upcoming cap increase.
Buchholz seems to be a better bet to stay. I've got to guess Miley is the guy to go. Buch seems better in a secondary role.
Came here to say the exact same. The Yankees surely wish they had let CC walk after he opted out, but he'd look bad on the deal he opted out of too. The argument over who "wins" with an opt out contract is clearly decided in the pitcher's favor. However, assuming the player performs at the level that got them the big deal in the first place, the team wins in the years prior to the opt out.
And that would make sense how? You basically got Kimbrel and Price for those 4 prospects and a boat load of cash. Everyone else is still in the fold.
Miley should be the guy to go. There are a lot of teams who could lack our starting pitcher depth and thus would place a higher value on a higher-floor guy.
Given that Oakland got Liam Hendricks for Jesse Chavez, I'm hoping we can get a legitimate 7th/8th inning guy for Miley.
What reason is there to believe the Red Sox are not comfortable giving a 33 year old pitcher >$100M? They just did it in the form of a 7 year contract.
Premium money for premium talent
And no prospects/picks to give up (price moved in previous season)
They went out and got best closer and starter available so even if arguably gave up a lot, we have a one year Papi window
7 years of price > 22 years of masterson
And no prospects/picks to give up (price moved in previous season)
They went out and got best closer and starter available so even if arguably gave up a lot, we have a one year Papi window
7 years of price > 22 years of masterson
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 2m2 minutes ago
The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. #STLCards
73 retweets15 likes
The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. #STLCards
73 retweets15 likes
Or he is worth it but Sox don't have a dire need for an Ace starting pitcher and can use the leftover Price $$ in other areas. Price gets another 6yr 150M contract from someone else and Sox don't miss a beat because they have Edro and Espinoza out pitching 34YO price. In this case it could be a win win, especially if we win another WS in the 3yrs he does spend here.
Really don't see much downside in this deal regarding the opt out. We really need a #1 pitcher right now, that may not be the case in 3yrs.
The nice thing about having talked myself in to Price at 7 years, $241 is that this seems like a bargain!
Love the signing. Bring on 2016
Love the signing. Bring on 2016
It's a PR win for the team in 3 years though if he chooses the opt out , plus year 36 is more likely to be albatross than years 30-32
Did I miss something? I've sports-hated the guy for years but he's always seemed like he'd be great to root for.
So basically your argument is that the upside is hopefully he's awesome and the Red Sox change their mind about wanting an awesome David Price who has proven he can pitch in Boston signed for 4/$124M when pitchers of that age and caliber are signing for 4/$160M (edit: or worse, 6/$240M) because of inflation?
The player opt out is pure downside for the team.
"Fantasy" is overstating the case; it could absolutely happen. But it's unlikely and certainly not something to count on.
I will say that, although I obviously agree with @amarshal2 that the opt out is pure downside, it's at least well-timed downside.
Chris Hatfield @SPChrisHatfield 6m6 minutes ago
Kershaw, Price opt-outs are both after 2018. Harvey, Fernandez would be FAs too if not extended. Hitters: Harper, McCutchen, Donaldson. Wow.
Chris Hatfield @SPChrisHatfield 6m6 minutes ago
Kershaw, Price opt-outs are both after 2018. Harvey, Fernandez would be FAs too if not extended. Hitters: Harper, McCutchen, Donaldson. Wow.
