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moondog80

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Brasier is fine as a cheap, back of the pen guy. If he's slotted as a high leverage guy, that's when I will be concerned.
 

shaggydog2000

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Brasier is fine as a cheap, back of the pen guy. If he's slotted as a high leverage guy, that's when I will be concerned.
With the Sox he's had an ERA- of 36, 100, 85, 33, and 141. In his one below average year he had his career high K/BB percentage, and a k% above his career average. He's the sort of dude that if another team non tendered him, fans on this board would want to sign for cheap. We're just scarred by actually seeing him pitch last year.
 

Ganthem

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Brasier is fine as a cheap, back of the pen guy. If he's slotted as a high leverage guy, that's when I will be concerned.
If Cora was willing to use him as a back of the pen guy, this would be fine. Given that Cora kept using him in high leverage situtions no matter how much he sucked, makes this move concerning.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If Cora was willing to use him as a back of the pen guy, this would be fine. Given that Cora kept using him in high leverage situtions no matter how much he sucked, makes this move concerning.
When you have a terrible bullpen, your decisions tend to look bad no matter what you do.
 

mikcou

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Did they? I’d be surprised if so – his final numbers weren’t great but he had a number of decent starts this season.
I dont think so, but he's pretty stuff limited. He has some value during his option years of being a guy in AAA who can come up and not be terribad and maybe he ultimately plays himself into an old-school long man in the pen/6th starter (i.e., more of the mop up soak up innings than the quality bulk inning reliever). There aren't too many guys who are successful pitchers at this point who have k/9 in the 5s. His stuff doesnt suggest that he's every going to be able to maintain high k rates in the majors as there isnt a single pitch that projects to be above average.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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But in most of them, the guys he didn't use were almost similar craphsoots.
Cora continued to put Brasier in bad situations where his skills didn’t play up and also continued to being in Sawamura with runners in scoring positions despite all evidence showing he would fail. I still think Cora is just terrible at BP strategy in these times that it’s more important than ever.
He still seems to rely on- Timlin/Embree for the 8th- Foulke for the 9th. And I worry he’ll continue to be robotic going forward
 

Ganthem

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
 

LogansDad

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
I think it's easy to make bad bullpen decisions when your outfield is some combination of Verdugo, Duran, Franchy and Pham/Refsnyder.

A healthy Hernandez should help next year, but I almost think someone who can at least pretend to play COF defense is as important as a SS this offseason.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I fear that Bellinger or Gallo are in our future. If both guys are signed as one year flyers for short money, great but it really seems that Chaim will throw too much money at a "good value" guy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
His bullpen was horrid last season. Management of it was largely irrelevant.

That the Sox seem inclined to bring back much of the pen back is interesting.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
Were you saying this in years past or are you maybe overreacting to one terrible and forgettable baseball season?
 

pdub

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I fear that Bellinger or Gallo are in our future. If both guys are signed as one year flyers for short money, great but it really seems that Chaim will throw too much money at a "good value" guy.
I would take a flier on Bellinger, perhaps. He's still only 27 and posted some monster years in the past.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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The thing that concerns me with Beli is he's been terrible since his shoulder surgery. If the Sox felt he's fully recovered, I guess I could get behind it, but he's been really bad since the injury and there's been no indication that he's recovered. If he was, the Dodgers probably would've tendered him a contract.
 

LogansDad

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One thing about Bellinger is that he has a kickass strikeout rate.... for an ace relief pitcher.

I want nothing to do with him on this team. If they were deeper and he lengthened the lineup, then maybe, but if he gets signed by the Sox it is because they are counting on him being a key contributor.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Another big worry for me with Bellinger is that he always seemed like someone who had a pretty big hole in his swing when pitched up in the zone. Even when he was mashing, I wondered how he was making contact with his swing path on elevated fastballs. His swing with the shoulder issues seem to be pretty troubling
 

chawson

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Brasier is fine as a cheap, back of the pen guy. If he's slotted as a high leverage guy, that's when I will be concerned.
I’m not a big Brasier guy, but this is where I'm at too. Among 144 relievers who threw 50+ innings in 2022 (by definition a fairly accomplished group), here's where Brasier ranked:

K/BB: 18th (4.92)
O-Swing%/Chase rate: 10th (38.6%)
BABIP: 132nd (.335, or 13th-highest BABIP)
Average FB velocity: 43rd (96.0 mph)
FIP: 90th (3.61)
xFIP: 65th (3.49)
ERA-FIP: 2nd (meaning he had the second-largest difference between ERA and FIP in MLB, suggesting extreme unluckiness)

These are all pretty strong indicators that he's still useful, in my book. He's just a fastball/slider guy and nothing particularly special, but I think his rubber armed-ness gives some extra value in a pen where we've had some bulk guys and starters designed to go only twice through the order. He tends to throw a good amount of back-to-back games.
 

E5 Yaz

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Another reason not to fall into the Bellinger trap is handedness. JDM is gone, X might be gone as well. Story and Kike' are the primary right-handed hitters. Adding a Bellinger (or, for instance, a Kiermaier) does nothing balance out the ledger.
You're looking, at the moment, at Devers, Verdugo, Casas/Hosmer, McGuire as everyday players. There is a need for balance.
 

chawson

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Another reason not to fall into the Bellinger trap is handedness. JDM is gone, X might be gone as well. Story and Kike' are the primary right-handed hitters. Adding a Bellinger (or, for instance, a Kiermaier) does nothing balance out the ledger.
You're looking, at the moment, at Devers, Verdugo, Casas/Hosmer, McGuire as everyday players. There is a need for balance.
Right, and with Valdez and Abreu in the mix too, plus a likely strong-side platoon outfielder to pair with Refsnyder, a RHB will be key.

Signing Jose Abreu seemed a couple months ago like too simple a move for Bloom to make, but he really seems like a great fit with this lineup.
 

YTF

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Were you saying this in years past or are you maybe overreacting to one terrible and forgettable baseball season?
I personally think there are a lot of moving parts to this. I've always seen Cora as a good, but not great manager, the big leagues are filled with these types. Back in 2018 we marveled at how AC "pushed all of the right buttons", but in reality this doesn't happen unless you have the right buttons to push. Specific to the 2022 season the team was uncertain at best on opening day and for a good part of the season it was a mess with lots of contributing factors. The offensive peaks were high and the valleys were abysmal. The roster construct going into the season was lees than ideal and didn't improve as the season wore on. Injuries to the rotation affected the bullpen and injuries to the pen made a bad situation worse and the choice to use Whitlock in a limited manner also played a part. We like to point to the team's overall offensive numbers and feel like they weren't so bad and while numbers wise you might think so, we all know that those numbers are greatly skewed by a six week stretch. First base was an offensive liability for most of the season, Story couldn't keep on the field, post all star JDM was MIA, Bogaerts had a prolonged slump and Devers was trying to play through an injury that clearly affected his hitting. An impotent offensive, unreliable defense in the outfield, and a battered pitching staff all played into the bullpen decisions that Cora made as well as the end result of those decisions.
 

Ganthem

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
His bullpen was horrid last season. Management of it was largely irrelevant.

That the Sox seem inclined to bring back much of the pen back is interesting.
Management of it is the furthest from irrelevant. There were plenty of times were there was a better option then Braiser, but it didnt matter how many times he blew it, Cora always went to him
 

Max Power

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Management of it is the furthest from irrelevant. There were plenty of times were there was a better option then Braiser, but it didnt matter how many times he blew it, Cora always went to him
Can you point to a few of those many times?
 

chawson

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I’m not a big Brasier guy, but this is where I'm at too. Among 144 relievers who threw 50+ innings in 2022 (by definition a fairly accomplished group), here's where Brasier ranked:

K/BB: 18th (4.92)
O-Swing%/Chase rate: 10th (38.6%)
BABIP: 132nd (.335, or 13th-highest BABIP)
Average FB velocity: 43rd (96.0 mph)
FIP: 90th (3.61)
xFIP: 65th (3.49)
ERA-FIP: 2nd (meaning he had the second-largest difference between ERA and FIP in MLB, suggesting extreme unluckiness)

These are all pretty strong indicators that he's still useful, in my book. He's just a fastball/slider guy and nothing particularly special, but I think his rubber armed-ness gives some extra value in a pen where we've had some bulk guys and starters designed to go only twice through the order. He tends to throw a good amount of back-to-back games.
And despite the jokes about Brasier living another day, you could also read it as a sign for how competitive Bloom sees the 2023 team becoming. It'd be a lot more forward-thinking to non-tender Brasier, who is a FA next winter, and protect a decent prospect like Ward or Wikelman Gonzalez in the Rule 5 draft. It's probably a good sign that he believes that we're going to need him this year.
 
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nvalvo

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Winck is still around; but he really doesn’t miss bats and gives up hard contact. Hard to see a very high ceiling there.
The SoxProspects guys were speculating that Winckowski might be a candidate to shift to the 'pen, where he can apparently throw quite hard. If a bit more velo on the fastball helps him miss a few more bats with the secondary stuff, he could be pretty interesting as a middle-leverage, two-inning guy.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Brasier turned 35 last August and was horrible in his age 34 season. It'd be a miracle if he isn't completely washed up.
He's never actually been good for a full season in his career. He's only thrown over 50 innings in a season twice and was lousy in both of those seasons. Now he's 35. He's really unlikely to suddenly become good at his age.
There's zero need to keep this guy around and give him a roster spot, much less hand him $2 million, much less to use him in close games again.
If we don't want to sign a better reliever to replace him, we'd still be much better off using that roster spot to cycle young relievers up and down from AAA next year.
It's depressing to think that we are going to bring back one of the worst pitchers from a horrible bullpen.
 

joe dokes

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His bullpen management was horrid last season. If it continues into the next season, I think we need to be talking about a new manager before we talk about a new head of baseball ops.
Find me a manager who's "good at bullpen management" when he has, at most, 3 consistently dependable releivers.

I agree, though, that Braiser seems replaceabe by some random pitcher we've never heard of.
 

soxhop411

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Three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and two-time Cy guy Jacob deGrom are free agents. So are 2022 All-Star Carlos Rodón and 2021 All-Star Chris Bassitt. But according to major league sources, the Red Sox — whose 4.53 ERA ranked 25th — appear unlikely to enter the bidding for any of the big four.

While the team is expected to be one of the biggest spenders this winter, the Sox are more likely to spread spending across several targets. With Verlander potentially targeting a salary north of $40 million a year and deGrom potentially seeking more than $30 million per year, the Sox are likely looking elsewhere for starters.

The Sox also seem more reluctant to pursue players who rejected the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer from their 2022 clubs than they were a year ago, when they gave up a second-round pick to sign Trevor Story.

However, the team had two extra picks (one for losing Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency, another after being unable to sign their 2021 second-rounder) in the first two rounds. Moreover, because the team stayed under the 2021 luxury tax threshold of $210 million, the penalty for signing a player who’d received a qualifying offer was the loss of a second-rounder and $500,000 in the team’s international amateur bonus pool.

In 2023, the Sox will only have one second-rounder, making the loss of that pick more consequential. And because they spent past last year’s $230 million luxury tax threshold, the Sox will get only a fourth-rounder if Xander Bogaerts or Nate Eovaldi sign elsewhere. Further, the penalty for signing a player who received a qualifying offer would be two picks (a second- and fifth-rounder) and the loss of $1 million in the team’s international amateur bonus pool as a result of spending past last year’s luxury tax threshold.

The Sox haven’t ruled out signing a player who received the qualifying offer, but their approach to such players has been reserved thus far.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/19/sports/jd-martinez-other-big-hitters-pulling-return-opposite-field-success/
 

mikcou

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And despite the jokes about Brasier living another day, you could also read it as a sign for how competitive Bloom sees the 2023 team becoming. It'd be a lot more forward-thinking to non-tender Brasier, who is a FA next winter, and protect a decent prospect like Ward or Wikelman Gonzalez in the Rule 5 draft. It's probably a good sign that he believes that we're going to need him this year.
Guys like Wikelman almost never get added - its counter productive - there's zero risk that he's going to stick on a MLB roster for a full season and you're materially increasing risk of running out of option years. He has great stuff, but his results in A ball were not good, he likely needs a lot of time before hes ready for the majors. Adding him in now locks him in into a pre-2026 MLB timeline - that is certainly possible, but there are a number of scenarios where he needs more time and would be a good player in his mid 20s.

If they thought that Thad Ward was likely to be picked, I'm sure they'd clear a spot for him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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For further back criticisms of AC prior to ‘22, myself and plenty of others here posted during their post ASB swoon that if the Sox missed the playoffs, Cora’s BP usage was going to be reason no. 1 in ‘21.
 

chawson

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Oof, this is not a move I was hoping they'd be making.
Why not? There were only 36 MLB starters more valuable than Kluber’s 3.0 fWAR last year, and he’s got Massachusetts ties. Seems like he’d slot in well if we do something like a 6-man to keep everyone’s innings down.

That said, has there ever been a Sox interested in…Sox sign sequence in the Bloom era? Seems like there’s tons of reports of us being in on someone, yet all the actual moves come out of nowhere.
 
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joe dokes

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For further back criticisms of AC prior to ‘22, myself and plenty of others here posted during their post ASB swoon that if the Sox missed the playoffs, Cora’s BP usage was going to be reason no. 1 in ‘21.
That dosn't mean you were right that it was reason No. 1. Just that you predicted it would be.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It’s really insane that they didn’t seem to make a big effort to get under the tax threshold, and now they may not really pursue FA’s who got QO’s? Hopefully just a smokescreen, otherwise pretty sobering.

The fact that they are interested in Kluber…is that three years in a row, now?
Kluber seems to get mentioned often because he profiles well with the rest of Bloom's starting pitching signings over the last three years: relatively low cost veterans with "flaws" (Perez, Richards, Hill, Wacha, Paxton, etc). He's an easy and almost safe rumor for reporters to float. I don't personally put a whole lot of stock in it at this point.

As for the stories about disinterest in the biggest names, is it really that insane? For all the shit that has been heaped on the Sale deal, it seems weird to me that there might be a fair amount of support for signing more expensive but aging and/or "injury-prone" pitchers, even if they're the cream of the free agent crop.

The youngest of them is entering his age 30 season (Rodon) and he has all the durability questions that people like to bemoan with Sale. While it might not take Sale's AAV to get Rodon, it will require that kind of length. It's a risky proposition. deGrom has missed a ton of time the last couple years and is entering his age 35 season. If he stays on the field and performs, it's a huge boon. If not, he's a more expensive Sale. Bassitt strikes me as the most attractive as far as combination of likely price/length needed (only because I don't think Verlander is leaving Houston), but he's entering his age 34 season and thus no lock to maintain or improve on his last three seasons.

Personally, I'd be fine with them taking a shot on any of those guys, but I can certainly understand why they'd not be entirely gung-ho about any of them.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I get not going after the high priced starters; but the article suggests they aren’t interested in signing any players who were offered a QO. Who knows at this point though, that may just be a preference as opposed to something set in stone.
 

E5 Yaz

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I get not going after the high priced starters; but the article suggests they aren’t interested in signing any players who were offered a QO. Who knows at this point though, that may just be a preference as opposed to something set in stone.
Right and while the idea of Judge signing with the Red Sox seems like an improbability, such a stance would lock them out of Turner and Swanson should X go elsewhere. They could conceivably sign Correa, but I can't envision current management doing so and still signing Devers.At that point you would be looking at bridge shortstops until the rookie crop develops
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I get not going after the high priced starters; but the article suggests they aren’t interested in signing any players who were offered a QO. Who knows at this point though, that may just be a preference as opposed to something set in stone.
There are not really a ton of compelling options among the guys who got QOs. Bogaerts and Eovaldi don't really count in this discussion, then it's Rodon, Bassitt, deGrom, Contreras, Turner, Swanson, Correa, Nimmo, and Judge. If we eliminate the pitchers and Contreras (I think they're rolling with McGuire and Wong), that leaves the shortstops and the outfielders. I imagine the preference at SS is to re-sign Bogaerts and they're not about to even have the appearance of considering the others until Bogaerts is no longer an option. The Yankees won't be outbid on Judge. Nimmo might be a decent fit but I suspect enough other teams (the Jays?) feel the same that he's going to get paid way more than he's worth, and Bloom would be wise to not be the GM that does that.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I get not going after the high priced starters; but the article suggests they aren’t interested in signing any players who were offered a QO. Who knows at this point though, that may just be a preference as opposed to something set in stone.
That could appease both Bloom and ownership. Bloom doesn’t lose any picks and keeps his future farm system building intact while ownership shows fans who think they are too cheap that they will in fact spend.
 

mr_smith02

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Why not? There were only 36 MLB starters more valuable than Kluber’s 3.0 fWAR last year, and he’s got Massachusetts ties. Seems like he’d slot in well if we do something like a 6-man to keep everyone’s innings down.

That said, has there ever been a Sox interested in…Sox sign sequence in the Bloom era? Seems like there’s tons of reports of us being in on someone, yet all the actual moves come out of nowhere.
I guess after seeing all the articles that stated the Red Sox are going to be BIG players this off-season I was a bit disappointed this was one of the first rumors I saw. I get it though, it is a LONG off-season and there are plenty of needs for this team. My post wasn't intended to knock Kluber per se, just wanted to see bigger deals being planned.
 

Ganthem

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I guess after seeing all the articles that stated the Red Sox are going to be BIG players this off-season I was a bit disappointed this was one of the first rumors I saw. I get it though, it is a LONG off-season and there are plenty of needs for this team. My post wasn't intended to knock Kluber per se, just wanted to see bigger deals being planned.
I think the Sox being big players and the Sox going after a premier free agent are two different things. I can see them trying to sign a veteran pitcher, with Evoldi being the prefered choice and a guy like Kluber being second. They are probably going to sign a few bullpen arms and they are going to try to sign Hill/Wacha types. I don't see them going after Nimmo, Redon, or Degrom due to various injury concerns and I think if Judge doesn't sign with the Yanks he is either going to the Dodgers or Giants.