Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

TheYellowDart5

Hustle and bustle
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Apr 16, 2003
9,276
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What's with the interest in Kepler? He rode the gopher ball to a career high in homers in 2019 and has been a league-average or worse hitter since. Doesn't make consistent hard contact, is injury prone. He's an alright defender and a better base runner than Verdugo but why give up anything talent-wise for a soon-to-be-30-year-old corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power and who's been worth all of 5 WAR over the last three seasons total? He's the older slightly more competent version of Verdugo and maybe a ~1 WAR upgrade at max without Verdugo's ceiling, that doesn't seem like a good use of resources or a roster spot.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,660
What's with the interest in Kepler? He rode the gopher ball to a career high in homers in 2019 and has been a league-average or worse hitter since. Doesn't make consistent hard contact, is injury prone. He's an alright defender and a better base runner than Verdugo but why give up anything talent-wise for a soon-to-be-30-year-old corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power and who's been worth all of 5 WAR over the last three seasons total? He's the older slightly more competent version of Verdugo and maybe a ~1 WAR upgrade at max without Verdugo's ceiling, that doesn't seem like a good use of resources or a roster spot.
Kepler is one of the players likeliest to benefit from a banned shift as explained here. He was one of the unluckiest players in baseball based on advanced metrics the last two years, with his .304 wOBA (roughly on par with Kevin Kiermaier) underselling his .343 expected wOBA (roughly on par with Joc Pederson or Cedric Mullins).

He also leads MLB right fielders with a +20 Outs Above Average over 2021-22.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,369
The whole "highest bidder" thing is always interesting. Unless it's a strange circumstance and a player turns down more money to sign elsewhere (which has happened a few times this offseason but generally isn't the case), the team that signs the player is basically always going to be willing to pay the player more than anyone else is willing to pay him. We can look at that as a negative - omg they went where nobody else was willing to go, what a mistake! Or we can look at it is a positive - they were willing to do whatever it took to get the player they wanted.

The Sox paid more for Manny than anyone else, and we all loved that they spent the money. Fans wanted the Sox to pay more for Bogaerts or Correa or Rodon than anyone else, but they didn't, and because they didn't, they're being criticized for not doing enough. The Sox paid more for Yoshida than anyone else, and now because of that, people are questioning their decision making.
 

Apisith

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Oct 19, 2007
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I get the feeling that Boras wants Bloom gone, that’s why he’s been needling Bloom in the press. Bloom has not ‘cooperated’ with Boras on anything big since he became GM. This is similar to Friedman’s relationship with Boras. I’m sure Boras wants a Dombrowski-type as GM of the Red Sox. Bloom’s valuation model and way of operating - seeking surplus value - is always going to lead to underbidding for Boras’ clients. It will be to Boras’ interests if Bloom is replaced.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
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Apr 23, 2010
9,271
The whole "highest bidder" thing is always interesting. Unless it's a strange circumstance and a player turns down more money to sign elsewhere (which has happened a few times this offseason but generally isn't the case), the team that signs the player is basically always going to be willing to pay the player more than anyone else is willing to pay him. We can look at that as a negative - omg they went where nobody else was willing to go, what a mistake! Or we can look at it is a positive - they were willing to do whatever it took to get the player they wanted.

The Sox paid more for Manny than anyone else, and we all loved that they spent the money. Fans wanted the Sox to pay more for Bogaerts or Correa or Rodon than anyone else, but they didn't, and because they didn't, they're being criticized for not doing enough. The Sox paid more for Yoshida than anyone else, and now because of that, people are questioning their decision making.
You’re missing a ton of context with the Yoshida thing. They’re being criticized because a lot of MLB writers and MLB “sources” are saying it was an incredible overpay and Yoshida has zero MLB history for people to fall back on. Who knows how Yoshida turns out and I am really hoping he hits his statistical projections but there are reasons why people are questioning the decision making
 

Sin Duda

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Jul 16, 2005
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I've been disappointed in this Red Sox offseason so far, but I'm actually more disappointed in seeing the main board of SOSH turn into a sports talk radio show. There's actually more whining on here now than there was in 2003, when we had much better reasons for whining.
Uh-oh, I guess some lurker is going to call me a "shill" now because I"m not throwing a tantrum on here. I better try to fit in: it's been over year since we were in the ALCS, and I refuse to accept this failure! We are the victims! How much more of this abuse are we supposed to endure?
Thank you, Gray Eagle. I come to this board to be educated, to enjoy camaraderie amongst my fellow fans, and to critique our team. I must say I too am sick of the whining. I don't want people to go away, I just want to keep it "professional". Is that too much to ask for?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,369
You’re missing a ton of context with the Yoshida thing. They’re being criticized because a lot of MLB writers and MLB “sources” are saying it was an incredible overpay and Yoshida has zero MLB history for people to fall back on. Who knows how Yoshida turns out and I am really hoping he hits his statistical projections but there are reasons why people are questioning the decision making
There are always reasons. And I understand them. SD blew everyone else out of the water for Xander too. Why is the narrative that they’re willing to spend to win instead of holy crap they’re insane and WTF are they doing?
 

mikcou

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May 13, 2007
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Boston
There are always reasons. And I understand them. SD blew everyone else out of the water for Xander too. Why is the narrative that they’re willing to spend to win instead of holy crap they’re insane and WTF are they doing?
There is the whole thing that the Padres actually have a good roster.

If you believe the reports, at most the Padres overpaid by 40% at the absolute most if there were 3-4 teams that all bid 200 (unlikely). More likely that this was more likely 25-30% on a total value and 15-20% on a present value.

Its not entirely clear on where Yoshida would have ended up because it sounds like he grabbed the Sox offer and ran with it, but there does seem to be a lot of smoke that he was a $45-$50M guy. So thats double not 40% more than prevailing market. Thats a pretty significant difference. It wont matter if Yoshida is good; if he isn't, it will be ugly.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
15,667
There are always reasons. And I understand them. SD blew everyone else out of the water for Xander too. Why is the narrative that they’re willing to spend to win instead of holy crap they’re insane and WTF are they doing?
I think most people do think it was an overpay, except that it is obvious that the Padres are pulling out the stops to go for it. I can't call them insane though because they've never won and are a little desperate. We will see if it works. The Red Sox have won this century so they presumably aren't desperate.

Sometimes an overpay is the way to go. Theo completely overpaid (in prospects) for Chapman in 2016, and because of how the rest of that year went he is going to the Hall of Fame.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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In Sunday notes, Speier says Vaz was offered a (lowball?) mini extension like X last winter, no other negotiations occurred.

Christian Vázquez — who signed a three-year, $30 million deal with the Twins last week — never made any secret of his desire to remain with the Red Sox. But the only time the sides discussed an extension on top of the three-year deal (with an option) that he signed in the spring of 2019, talks went nowhere.

Before the Sox picked up Vázquez’s $7 million option for 2022, they proposed tacking on a year but at a lower average salary for 2022-23 than the option. Vázquez declined the proposed pay cut, and the sides never re-engaged.

Still, Vázquez loved Boston and wanted to explore every avenue for a return — even after the team traded him to Houston. He made that clear to the Sox this offseason, going so far as to reach out to the team before giving the Twins his final answer, but the Sox never showed interest in bringing back the player who is tied for the fifth-most games caught (651) in franchise history.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/17/sports/why-has-there-been-dizzying-level-money-term-free-agency-this-year/?event=event25
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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What's with the interest in Kepler? He rode the gopher ball to a career high in homers in 2019 and has been a league-average or worse hitter since. Doesn't make consistent hard contact, is injury prone. He's an alright defender and a better base runner than Verdugo but why give up anything talent-wise for a soon-to-be-30-year-old corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power and who's been worth all of 5 WAR over the last three seasons total? He's the older slightly more competent version of Verdugo and maybe a ~1 WAR upgrade at max without Verdugo's ceiling, that doesn't seem like a good use of resources or a roster spot.
My interest anyhow is that he is a plus defender in RF (alright sells him short), which we need in our home park, and a batter who has been underrated by his recent results. He's also on a very reasonable contract, the end of his extension with Minnesota — 1 year $8.5m, with a club option at $10m/$1m buyout — and it sounds like he should be available for very little.

I like him a lot better if we are also acquiring a big RH bat to DH, such as the also-rumored-to-be-available Rhys Hoskins.

You’re missing a ton of context with the Yoshida thing. They’re being criticized because a lot of MLB writers and MLB “sources” are saying it was an incredible overpay and Yoshida has zero MLB history for people to fall back on. Who knows how Yoshida turns out and I am really hoping he hits his statistical projections but there are reasons why people are questioning the decision making
The team that wins the bidding is almost tautologically the team that is willing to pay more than other teams think the player is worth (e.g. SD and Xander, as mentioned by others above).

I say this as someone who thought Yoshida should be one of our top targets from the beginning of the offseason, but I think the "zero MLB history thing" is oversold and the result of an unwillingness to look deeper into the situation. Sure, not every hitter has succeeded who has come over from NPB. But most of these guys who didn't translate were good players in NPB, not perennial MVP-candidate/batting champion types with more walks than strikeouts and OPSes above 1.000, etc. etc. etc.

Everyone is eager to suggest that Bloom and the Sox FO are constantly misreading the FA market, but I think the Red Sox may have signed one of the better outfield contracts of the offseason, given that the comparison is the Andrew Benintendi deal with Chicago, the Brandon Nimmo deal with NYM, Judge reupping with New York at a $40m AAV, etc. The Giants' deal for Haniger is also pretty good, and I'm sure there are a few more that I'm forgetting.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
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Dec 8, 2006
9,092
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In Sunday notes, Speier says Vaz was offered a (lowball?) mini extension like X last winter, no other negotiations occurred.



https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/17/sports/why-has-there-been-dizzying-level-money-term-free-agency-this-year/?event=event25
Going back to Lester, I’ve been getting a “grandpa trying to negotiate the price of a new car” vibe from what I can only assume to be Boston’s ownership group since several GM’s have been in charge since those days. That vibe has only grown stronger under Bloom.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
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JD would be an improvement on the current team, and it would allow Dalbec to concentrate on his defense for a backup role at both 1B and 3B for April 2023, and god forbid to take over for a Deversian departure in July 2023 or April 2024.
 

Coachster

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Jul 3, 2009
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Clearly isn’t but I would absolutely take him back for a year given the limited alternatives.
It seems the limited alternatives for RHH DH's are Andrew McCutchen or Nelson Cruz, both far more cooked than JDM, or Luke Voit.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/designated-hitter/

Outfielders who can DH offer a slightly better selection, but the one I prefer (Michael Brantley) hits lefty, which doesn't help much. Meyers, Pollock?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/outfield/
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
4,711
My preference is Justin Turner for DH, but if the FO decides more JDM is the better fit I'd believe them.

Turner may also end up priced out of the pure DH market by a team that wants him at 3rd, like Abreu was.
 

BringBackMo

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Jul 15, 2005
1,315
As a public service to SOSH, I have drafted the following templates that members can simply copy and paste every time a free agent looking to drum up interest is “linked” to the Red Sox. Just choose the one that best fits the situation:

“Bloom wants XYZ-player? That guy plays the same position as ZYX-player he just dumped! What a joke! But he’ll be cheap, so I guess that explains it.”

“Bloom wants XYZ-player? That guy is so old! What a joke! But he’ll be cheap, so I guess that explains it.”

“Bloom wants XYZ-player? That guy sucks! What a joke! But he’ll be cheap, so I guess that explains it.”

“Bloom wants XYZ-player? Wait, What’s that…? The Sox just signed him? I CAN’T BELIEVE BLOOM PAID THAT MUCH FOR HIM!”
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
4,711
The big question about JD is what the hell happened to him over the summer? His spring/fall splits were really good. Not quite vintage JD, but absolutely someone you'd be happy to have as a full time DH. If that's who we think he is and the terrible summer was a short term injury without lingering implications, I think the upside of his bat is better than Turner's.
 

mr_smith02

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Nov 29, 2003
4,352
Upstate NY
The big question about JD is what the hell happened to him over the summer? His spring/fall splits were really good. Not quite vintage JD, but absolutely someone you'd be happy to have as a full time DH. If that's who we think he is and the terrible summer was a short term injury without lingering implications, I think the upside of his bat is better than Turner's.
Another upside is that he's been known to have a positive impact on other hitters in the clubhouse.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,660
It seems the limited alternatives for RHH DH's are Andrew McCutchen or Nelson Cruz, both far more cooked than JDM, or Luke Voit.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/designated-hitter/

Outfielders who can DH offer a slightly better selection, but the one I prefer (Michael Brantley) hits lefty, which doesn't help much. Meyers, Pollock?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/outfield/
Hoskins is the play, I think, as he’d help cover 1B too, but hard to say if he’s actually available and maybe Bloom thinks Dalbec still has a shot.

The Marlins seem likely to deal either Avi Garcia or Jorge Soler, who both theoretically fit RF and DH holes. Garcia was extremely bad last year but has been forthright about coming into camp out of shape. Soler has been discussed plenty here; he’s certainly interesting for whoever can unlock the hitter that Atlanta did in 2021, but good luck to them.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
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Feb 4, 2012
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bloodysox

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Sep 25, 2011
2,807
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Unless his contract is ridiculous I’m going to be pretty pissed. Chaim better make a trade for a legit SS because Story at SS would be a huge mistake. He was amazing at 2nd this year and messing with a good thing is dumb.

Less mad about not getting Swanson (easily the worst out of the big 4 in this FA class) and more mad about them not signing anyone. As it stands this is a below .500 team and signing 1 of the 4 would have made a big difference. And relying on prospects who may or may not pan out is foolish to say the least, especially when you pull in the 3rd most revenue in baseball.

Thankfully there’s a lot of time left but at this point I don’t have any faith that there’s an actual plan.
 
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soxhop411

news aggravator
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Dec 4, 2009
46,274
Unless his contract is ridiculous I’m going to be pretty pissed. Chaim better make a trade for a legit SS because Story at SS would be a huge mistake. He was amazing at 2nd this year and messing with a good thing is dumb.

Less mad about not getting Swanson (easily the worst out of the big 4 in this FA class) and more mad about them not signing anyone. As it stands this is a below .500 team and signing 1 of the 4 would have made a big difference. And relying on prospects who may or may not pan out is foolish to say the least, especially when you pull in the 3rd most revenue in baseball.

Thankfully there’s a lot of time left but at this point I don’t have any faith that there’s an actual plan.
View: https://twitter.com/Russ_Dorsey1/status/1604225963268661248

Swanson’s deal is a seven-year deal worth $177 million and includes a full no-trade, sources tell @BallySports and @Stadium.
 

bosox1534

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Dec 17, 2022
130
Extremely reasonable contract. Would be pretty upset if we didn’t offer something close to this or more.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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And, now, repeat after me...starting at shortstop for the Boston Red Sox Trevor Story.
Pretty good odds Story plays shortstop all year and ranks among the top 8 at the position.

fWAR, 2019-21 (2023 age)
1. Tatis, 12.6 (23)
2. Bogaerts, 11.7 (30)
3. Anderson, 11.6 (30)
4. Lindor, 11.6 (29)
5. Story, 11.3 (30)
6. Turner, 11.3 (30)
7. Correa, 11.1 (28)
8. Seager, 9.1 (29)
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Apr 14, 2009
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As soon as Bogaerts wasn't coming back, it became pretty clear they were staying away from any other of the top tier SS, imo.

Since then, I wanted Segura. He's still available. You need someone for the position. Might need to sign him out of necessity.
 

bloodysox

New Member
Sep 25, 2011
2,807
Louisville, Colorado
Pretty good odds Story plays shortstop all year and ranks among the top 8 at the position.

fWAR, 2019-21 (2023 age)
1. Tatis, 12.6 (23)
2. Bogaerts, 11.7 (30)
3. Anderson, 11.6 (30)
4. Lindor, 11.6 (29)
5. Story, 11.3 (30)
6. Turner, 11.3 (30)
7. Correa, 11.1 (28)
8. Seager, 9.1 (29)
He won’t be playing half his games at Coors Field lol he’s not going to be a top 8 SS. Hope he proves me wrong though!
 
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mr_smith02

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Nov 29, 2003
4,352
Upstate NY
As soon as Bogaerts wasn't coming back, it became pretty clear they were staying away from any other of the top tier SS, imo.

Since then, I wanted Segura. He's still available. You need someone for the position. Might need to sign him out of necessity.
I think the plan is to make an effort to find a solid outfielder and move Kike to 2B if necessary, if not they leave Kike in the outfield and sign someone like Segura for 2B.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
72,428
Pretty good odds Story plays shortstop all year and ranks among the top 8 at the position.

fWAR, 2019-21 (2023 age)
1. Tatis, 12.6 (23)
2. Bogaerts, 11.7 (30)
3. Anderson, 11.6 (30)
4. Lindor, 11.6 (29)
5. Story, 11.3 (30)
6. Turner, 11.3 (30)
7. Correa, 11.1 (28)
8. Seager, 9.1 (29)
Didn’t Story play in Coors in ‘19-21?
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
248
Didn’t Story play in Coors in ‘19-21?
He won’t be playing half his games at Coors Field lol not happening.
This is a misunderstanding of the Coors phenomenon. The biggest effect is from the poor spin on the pitched ball; not the distance traveled after it is hit. As a result batters that play half their games in Coors adjust to everything moving a little less and it creates the absurd home/road splits for the majority of Rockies hitters. Therefore you can't just look at someone like Story's splits and extrapolate based on road stats. The truth is somewhere in between. A recent example of someone leaving in their prime and doing just as well: DJ LeMahieu. So I'm hopeful for Story in 2023--he definitely showed glimpses in 2022 but was pressing hard in between.
 

bloodysox

New Member
Sep 25, 2011
2,807
Louisville, Colorado
The fact Swanson got paid more than the Red Sox even offered to Xander is a joke honestly.

Makes it pretty obvious that either they didn’t actually want him or they have a very poor ability to gauge the market, not sure which one would be worse.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
11,920
It’s been a rough off-season when folks are hoping that we can bring SOSH whipping boy JD Martinez back for one more year.

Those “we could still sign Rodon, Swanson, and trade for Hoskins and Kepler and it would be an ok off-season” posts didn’t age well
 

FisksFinger

New Member
Oct 23, 2013
1,070
Seattle, WA
The fact Swanson got paid more than the Red Sox even offered to Xander is a joke honestly.

Makes it pretty obvious that either they didn’t actually want him or they have a very poor ability to gauge the market, not sure which one would be worse.
Great point regarding Xander.

If we take the many public comments the front office made about how much they wanted Xander back at face value, it means they have very poor ability to gauge the market.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,660
I think the plan is to make an effort to find a solid outfielder and move Kike to 2B if necessary, if not they leave Kike in the outfield and sign someone like Segura for 2B.
It’s possible, but I don’t know about that. Kiké is a lot more valuable in CF and they probably owe it to him, given that extension, to give him a full year there before he hits free agency. It’d be easier for us to find another second baseman than an outfielder, and it would be tough to open up another hole when there are lingering defensive questions for Yoshida and Verdugo (as a RF).
 

bloodysox

New Member
Sep 25, 2011
2,807
Louisville, Colorado
This is a misunderstanding of the Coors phenomenon. The biggest effect is from the poor spin on the pitched ball; not the distance traveled after it is hit. As a result batters that play half their games in Coors adjust to everything moving a little less and it creates the absurd home/road splits for the majority of Rockies hitters. Therefore you can't just look at someone like Story's splits and extrapolate based on road stats. The truth is somewhere in between. A recent example of someone leaving in their prime and doing just as well: DJ LeMahieu. So I'm hopeful for Story in 2023--he definitely showed glimpses in 2022 but was pressing hard in between.
Fair point, Arenado has been good for the Cardinals as well (although not nearly as good as he was for the Rockies). Story’s road splits are also heavily influenced by playing in the division with the most pitcher friendly ballparks so that also is a major factor there.

I just don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to be a top 8 SS, top 15 is much more likely. Either way they need to find someone to play 2nd because I have 0 faith that Arroyo can stay healthy.