Honestly, it doesn't matter to me. It's not my money. He's a proven, quality starter. I'd rather pay a little more for somebody who should be decent for 3-4 years rather than throwing something at the wall to see if it sticks.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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Well he's proven to be more hurt than not over his career so far. Are posters going to be pissed about the Sale contract going forward after this off season?
Of course posters will be pissed about it, but we got a title in 18 from it. As much as I wish it were off the books, that's the cost of winning. I can of course only speak for myself, but if Rodon helps us win one, I'm all in if the cost isn't 11/280 it something ridiculous like that.
It's been a couple very healthy years. Is there anything about his motion that suggests he's a reinjury risk? If not, then he's kind of just like every other pitcher in terms of risk.
Well there's this.... but also the fact that the Chris Sale contract is what very likely put the Sox into the situation that everyone is shitting their diapers over. I can't believe that someone will be "okay" with getting Rodon and then will be "okay" with how that plays out..... these huge contracts have a long term impact. Like it or not, it's Henry's money and he apparently is sticking to not going over the tax threshold, so in your Sox GM fan fiction world.... you have to keep that in mind. You can't just say, "I'd get Judge.... Nimmo.... uh.... gimme the Correa but hold the mayo..... and also whoever is the best closer out there.... what do I care, it's not my money!?!?!"
I mentioned a starting pitcher. Nothing else. Sale is off the books soon, and with Bloom at the helm, they aren't giving out albatross contacts like others. If we're doing to be competitive, at least get a quality pitcher. If not, so be it, but I think we're all tired of the retreads
Per Al Leiter on the MLB Network the other day, the answer is "yes." The gist of Leiter's analysis was that Rodon's finish was more violent/forceful than he'd like to see.
I think the biggest issue with Rodon was his shoulder. If just the TJ, not much cause for concern, but he also had surgery in '18 for bursitis. Not a doctor, but I think bursitis being so bad that a pitcher needs surgery for it suggests there's something in your delivery that repeated over time, can causes that sort of inflammation.
Edit: I think what Pozo shared above about re - Leiter's analysis supports that.
Chris Sale’s contract obviously sucks, no one is denying that. But at the same time it’s not a franchise killer. Especially if the franchise is the Boston Red Sox.
It’s one shitty contract, they didn’t give him the deed to Fenway. I mean it’s cautionary tale not a referendum for never awarding big money contracts.
It would be like if the Red Sox decided to never make a trade after the Bagwell deal.
It’s one shitty contract, they didn’t give him the deed to Fenway. I mean it’s cautionary tale not a referendum for never awarding big money contracts.
It would be like if the Red Sox decided to never make a trade after the Bagwell deal.
You could argue it kept the Sox from extending Betts for the rest of his career. It was a Carl Crawford sized blunder.
No it was that in addition to lots of other unproductive contracts to FA’s…. But that was the biggest and the likeliest reason that Mookie had to be traded. Again- it’s Heny’s $ and that is clearly how the situation went.
Take away Sale…. Give $20M to a different FA player and I believe that difference would have kept Mookie.
sure….not having Price, Sandoval and Pedroia’s dead weight around would have more than done the same, but those were there prior to Sale
John Henry approved that Sale deal 1 year before he demanded that Mookie be traded. If he’s that dumb and lacks the foresight of a whole 12 months he should sell the team.
Right. I’m not arguing that a Chris Sale contract doesn’t have consequences. Like if you took next week’s paycheck and spent it all on baseball cards that would be dumb. But presumably you’d have a check the next week that you could use towards rent or food or utilities. But you wouldn’t be homeless.
The Red Sox are acting like the Chris Sale contract has made them homeless. Big contracts aren’t going anywhere and they’re only getting larger. If you’re scared of big contracts that may turn bad, maybe it’s time to leave MLB.
I think the Sale contract and then being over the tax threshold made their life harder than it needed to be. That was kind of the keystone deal that led to so many issues that we are currently seeing.
The reset of the tax was such a big deal the team tweeted a big red reset button after they finally cleared it.
The contract for Sale receives a lot of attention but the David Price contract belongs in the discussion.
JD Martinez also opting in every year for that 20 million as well. Before the 2020 season I was praying JD would opt out because I felt that meant Mookie might be traded.
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Also,I forgot to mention and I hope my memory is right in that in 2019 didn't the Red Sox take Mookie Betts to arbitration? That must have upset him , especially after 2018 World Series win. Can't blame Bloom for that.
So can someone who is more knowledgeable about the tax clear this up for me? From what I understand if they go over like last year it's a few million, certainly under 10 million. That seems like not much for a billion dollar franchise. Like I said I am not too knowledgeable on this subject, so that's why I ask the question. Respectfully , Ron.
Others are more knowledgeable about the details, but I believe the problem is more in draft penalties than the cash.
A club that exceeds the Competitive Balance Tax threshold is subject to an increasing tax rate depending on how many consecutive years it has done so.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
With no good pitching prospects at the time, they needed Price to be top of division in 2016-18, and Price was the anchor to save the 2018 playoff rotation.
With no good pitching prospects at the time, they also needed to sign Sale when he gave them a pretty good, slightly below market deal. Who knows if they screwed up the medicals, that's a separate matter.
I will never regret either of these deals being signed. What you regret is the bad drafting that forces your hand into these deals.
With no good pitching prospects at the time, they also needed to sign Sale when he gave them a pretty good, slightly below market deal. Who knows if they screwed up the medicals, that's a separate matter.
I will never regret either of these deals being signed. What you regret is the bad drafting that forces your hand into these deals.
Having exceeded the CBT in 2022, the compensation pick that the Red Sox will receive for the Padres signing Bogaerts will come after the fourth round of the 2023 MLB Draft. If Boston had shed a few million more at the 2022 trading deadline, that compensation pick would have come after the second round instead.
What is it telling of? So far no rumors about the red sox have come true and the 2 main moves they made came quickly with no rumors.
Good point. I actually wonder what this does for Correa. People are saying that he should get nothing less than what Bogaerts got. I understand that. Correa is two years younger and he’s better.
BUT… we all also understand that what SD did was completely frigging nuts. Nobody else in MLB was even close.
I’m selling a car and everyone thinks it’s worth 20k, and there is a group of highest bidders around 20k, and then all of a sudden out of nowhere some lunatic offers me 35k for it. I’m like ok yeah so I sell it for a price way way beyond what anyone thought it could sell for.
So now the crazy lunatic is out of the picture as you sell your slightly better car. It OUGHT to be worth maybe 22k, and the only person who would ever have bought it for insane dollars isn’t buying now because he just wildly overspent for mine. So everyone else in the buying market is at least somewhat sane and they all think that the lunatic wildly overspent.
So is it realistic for YOU to expect that your slightly better car will sell for 37k just because mine went to a complete lunatic for 35k? Or, now that the lunatic isn’t buying anymore, will it most likely be the case that your car will sell for maybe 23-24k?
In other words, does one wild crazy overpay set the market or does everyone else go, ok wow that guy is CRAZY and nobody else is going to spend that kind of money like that for that kind of player?
BUT… we all also understand that what SD did was completely frigging nuts. Nobody else in MLB was even close.
I’m selling a car and everyone thinks it’s worth 20k, and there is a group of highest bidders around 20k, and then all of a sudden out of nowhere some lunatic offers me 35k for it. I’m like ok yeah so I sell it for a price way way beyond what anyone thought it could sell for.
So now the crazy lunatic is out of the picture as you sell your slightly better car. It OUGHT to be worth maybe 22k, and the only person who would ever have bought it for insane dollars isn’t buying now because he just wildly overspent for mine. So everyone else in the buying market is at least somewhat sane and they all think that the lunatic wildly overspent.
So is it realistic for YOU to expect that your slightly better car will sell for 37k just because mine went to a complete lunatic for 35k? Or, now that the lunatic isn’t buying anymore, will it most likely be the case that your car will sell for maybe 23-24k?
In other words, does one wild crazy overpay set the market or does everyone else go, ok wow that guy is CRAZY and nobody else is going to spend that kind of money like that for that kind of player?
I may have missed something but are people complaining that the Price signing happened at all? The only griping I have seen is how, overall, the signing worked out. Those are two very different things. The complaints about the Sale deal, meanwhile, tend to be about when it was made. He was still under contract, so it was an extension, one that may have played a role in not being able to resign Mookie without blowing past the luxury tax draft and international signings penalties. That extension is widely thought to have been a contributing factor in DD getting the ax. Again, I may have missed some recent posts but i think you’ve mischaracterized the nature of the complaints about those signings.
And yet this thread is full of posts that could better appear elsewhere. If there are no rumors, there should be no new posts one has to slog through.
PLEASE let's make an attempt to keep the posts in line with the thread title!
With the Sox being "in" on every single FA and trade, there is a lot of truth to "legit rumor"
Or a cautionary tale not to give big money contracts to pitchers with a year left in their current contract and who are coming directly off a season in which they were injured for the last couple months and had to have their innings significantly diminished. Devil in the details, as it were.
So far it appears that management has outright lied to us or else
has no concept as to what the market is.
I hope it’s the latter and will reevaluate their position. Unfortunately
what’s done is done and now the RedSox have to spend a lot more
than they estimated to make the team competitive or else roll the
dice with an inferior product and hope they strike lightning In a bottle.
Please don’t make this season irrelevant. Guys like me have lived through
more of those than we want to remember. Give the team a fighting chance
to compete!
This separation of the picks feels huge, but I'm starting to wonder how meaningful it really is. When the Sox went over the threshold that pushed their draft pick back for 2018, the explanation was that the player they want at that time is usually still there, so they decided to trust their talent evaluation. After round 2 you're basically looking at players who will fall for their bonus demands or desire to go to school, and are picked as hedges against other signings not working out.
The bigger penalty probably comes when you look to sign a FA with a QO attached, but I think it's safe to say the Sox aren't looking to do that anyway...
I think the valid point here is that Bloom hasn't had a solid grasp of the market. There were rumblings during the trade deadline that his asking price was too high for many of the players on expiring contracts. They also apparently expected to sign Bogaerts for 6/$160. If that's true, we'd all be ecstatic and praise the front office for playing things correctly. The problem is, he didn't sign that contract 3 days ago or any time in the past year when they could have offered it to him. They have misplayed things for too long, and while they haven't exclusively made mistakes, they've made too many to forgive.
They need to earn my trust again, they currently don't have it.
Going back to the Moneyball days, there was a point in the book (paraphrasing) that if you win with nobodies, the nobodies become stars. If they win without Xander than all will be forgiven, but I haven't seen any evidence of any sort of master plan from this front office.
So if they were so worried about the tax why didn’t they shed enough salary at the deadline to get under?
I imagine the argument will be “only two games our of the playoffs” even though they were in last. I think a lot of it was optics; wouldn’t have looked good to gut the team at that point. The last month or so was pretty awful anyways, but trading X, JD, and Wacha and then giving that playing time to the AAA dreck would have been a tough sell.
Of course there’s probably a lesson here- when you try to have it both ways, you usually end up worse off than had you clearly chosen one path or the other.
Because they already did in 2020. Under the old CBA teams would do it once every 4 or 5 years to avoid the worst draft and IFA penalties. I think it's the same for the new one, but we'll see what teams do moving forward.
Its worth noting again how arbitrary the decision to duck under is. A four year+ max repeater still pays only 90% on the overage. I think the Sox have paid at most 15m$ tax in a year (can’t find link sorry).
They are not rebuilding, at least as I understand it. They are choosing to reconstitute the team operational model (somehow?) and money would paper over pain here. It’s their choice to execute this transformation.
Apparently the prospects will be arriving in droves under this administration over the next several years so lets spend a little in advance.
Putting money where mouth is; Specifically I want 275 budget…225 for team plus buy me an elite player.
edit- I understand there are also draft pick implications that could delay ‘the process’ but I still think money can paper over.
Edit 2 sorry I broke my own don’t publish in rumors rule. Darn.
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Yeah it’s weird. I don’t feel like a lot of the moves make sense under any sort of scrutiny.
I dont think theres a huge difference in the player there, given boards diverge pretty quickly in MLB (as compared to hte NFL), but the money assigned to those slots are pretty different. In 2022, the picks right after the 2nd roudnd were around ~1M slot. After the 4th round, ~$425k. That difference is a high quality high school prep guy who falls past round 10.
You could argue that, but there is no proof that the Sox were ever going to offer the kind of contract Betts wanted to stay in Boston. The Sale extend has been bad, but the Sox ownership and management using that as an excuse to not read the market is going to create a perpetual loser in Boston.
I think it's actually pretty simple.
To get under, they needed to trade JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, or Xander. They were close enough to the playoffs that they were reportedly asking for a ton for either Eovaldi, or Martinez. My guess is that the FO didn't value the offers they were getting enough to sacrifice a chance at the playoffs, so they didn't blow up the team. The value of getting under the CBT meant X to them. The value of a chance at the playoffs meant Y to them. The prospects offered had a value to them. At the time of the deadline (but damn it, probably very different just a couple days later) X + Z didn't = Y.
The fact that they were slumping into the deadline, and that they continued to suffer really bad luck almost immediately as the deadline passed, makes that equation look bad in hindsight... but at the time it probably made sense.
Don’t know how to post it but Hector Gomez on Twitter offered that the Sox are in heavy on Senga. Willing to go to 7 years. John Henry concerned about losing the fanbase..
I won’t comment on how Bogey out and Senga in is certainly not going to pacify the fan base
I won’t comment on how Bogey out and Senga in is certainly not going to pacify the fan base
The Gomez tweet is actually a reposting of a tweet from this guy ... who I've never heard of before, so be wary
View: https://twitter.com/jon_muller00/status/1601590991869607937
Right. Though I think that now we are two years over the tax threshold that limits rebuilding efforts if the goal is to spend for a bit before having to reset again.
But again, I don’t know what the plan is here. We hear they want Xander forever and he’s gone now (under insane circumstances that he never should have met). But I don’t get the sense Devers will be a lifer. So we can likely expect one more medium sized deal and then a bunch of stocking stuffers and hope they gel as a core.
Don't worry, Bloom will assure us days later that they were never in discussions at all
If we make all the other teams overspend, then we can sign all the leftovers in January. We are so getting JDM at a steal. :/