Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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If the rotation is that good next year they’re pretty much guaranteed to be a playoff team but I don’t share your optimism. Relying on Sale and Paxton to not only stay healthy but also perform at a high level is tough. I’d honestly be thrilled if both were able to pitch 20 games and put up an ERA around 4.

Agreed on Bello though, I couldn’t be higher on him. Dude was electric at the end of the season and even with his really rough start he put up a FIP below 3. I think it’s very possible he ends up being our best starter next season.
Well re: Sale and Paxton - most healthy starting pitchers throw 33 starts over a full season. All I'm asking for is 20. So I'm expecting them both to miss just under half the season.
 

JM3

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If I had to guess how those 2 would get to 40 starts, it would probably be like 25 Sale/15 Paxton. Don't think Paxton takes the $4m if he's ready to go from the jump, & Sale should be totally healthy right now.
 

jbupstate

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If the rotation is that good next year they’re pretty much guaranteed to be a playoff team but I don’t share your optimism. Relying on Sale and Paxton to not only stay healthy but also perform at a high level is tough. I’d honestly be thrilled if both were able to pitch 20 games and put up an ERA around 4.

Agreed on Bello though, I couldn’t be higher on him. Dude was electric at the end of the season and even with his really rough start he put up a FIP below 3. I think it’s very possible he ends up being our best starter next season.
Not directed a your post but it kills me that DeGrom and Rodon get mega contracts and have serious injury concerns. Eovaldi has an injury past and last season had a noticeable drop in velocity but is someone to sign for 3/45. But Sale can’t be counted on to make 20 starts and might not be any good. Chris Sale healthy makes this team tougher in personality and performance. He got smoked with a line drive last year and fell off a bike. His arm should be well rested and is a very good starting pitcher.
 

jbupstate

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His reaction to the X signing shows complete incompetence IMO has has nothing to do with money.

Also, they let him pay Story $140M.
2022 vs 2023

2022
C - Vazquez - 109 ops+


2023

C - McGuire - probably will be a downgrade from Vazquez' 2022
I do not think McGuire is a downgrade at the bat and is an upgrade behind the plate. I think there is some untapped upside there. McGuire will be 28 when the season starts. Some catchers take time to develop.

2022 was a almost a career year from Vazquez. 2021 OPS+ 77, Career 85.

For the record I think 32 year old Vazquez is straight up replacement level at best. Irrational I know…. Just never liked his game.
 

simplicio

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In general I liked Vazquez pretty well, though I never felt quite comfortable with his pitch calling. That's such a hard aspect to quantify though that I was never sure if it was cognitive bias on my part or not.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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In general I liked Vazquez pretty well, though I never felt quite comfortable with his pitch calling. That's such a hard aspect to quantify though that I was never sure if it was cognitive bias on my part or not.
I also didn’t care for Vazquez game after his first season or two. He seemed mentally sloppy and I actually think it’s not coincidental that Bello took off after he left. I don’t think Vaz is/was the de-facto C that Bloom or Cora wanted around younger players.
 

BaseballJones

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4 pitchers did that last year. Cole, Pivetta, Burnes and Merrill Kelly
I don’t understand this post. Four (and only four) pitchers made at least 20 starts last year? What are you saying here?

Oh my bad - you’re saying four threw 33 starts.

Then most pitchers weren’t healthy all season.
 
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The B’s Knees

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I don’t understand this post. Four (and only four) pitchers made at least 20 starts last year? What are you saying here?

Oh my bad - you’re saying four threw 33 starts.

Than most pitchers weren’t healthy all season.
I think he's saying that there were only 4 pitchers who started 33 games in all of MLB last year.
17 pitchers made 32 starts.
 

BaseballJones

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43 SP started 30+ games. That's 1.4 SP per team.
124 SP started 20+ games. That's 4.1 SP per team.

I'm assuming, then, that Sale and Paxton will miss a lot of games; asking for 20 starts isn't really THAT much. Though for both of them, maybe it is. Who knows.
 

walt in maryland

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Fair.

I always address SS/2b as short hand, when I should better outline that my concern is losing Bogaerts the #3 hitter and not Bogaerts the SS (especially since I think he was likely to move to LF or similar in a few seasons anyway). That is the part that I think we haven't done nearly enough to address are core pieces for the 2, 3 and 4 slots in the batting order. Story fills one, and I'm very pleased with that. Losing Bogaerts is a massive hole to the offense not only for the short term, but I think for the long term as well. I think it's only going to be exacerbated when we don't extend Devers and he leaves, hopefully via trade, but I think more likely via free agency.

There are some on here whom have mentioned (or at least implied) that they're not concerned with replacing Bogaerts bat, I for one think that is a massive mistake. Locking up Devers would go a LONG way toward addressing that, but I admit that I think getting him on board became much more unlikely the moment Bogaerts left the Red Sox. Of course, there are other (better) core line up pieces than Xander Bogaerts in the game of major league baseball, but we've done nothing to add them and I honestly don't think Bloom is going to pony up the money (market rate) or the prospects necessary to do as such. I hope to be very wrong about that.
Replacing Xander's bat will be difficult, and impossible to do with just one player addition. Replacing -- no, improving -- his defense will not be. That's where the team's focus should be at SS, which is why Story needs to stay at 2b
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yoshida could be a roughly comparable Bogaerts bat, with Turner being a roughly comparable JD bat.

The Sox were the #4 AL offense last year, in terms of runs scored. Significant holes were: 1B, CF, RF. Right now, we've got a viable option at 1B (Casas) and health should boost CF and give us a boost to 2B. Those gains might offset the difference between Xander and Yoshida.

There's certainly some volatility there, but as the club stands they could actually produce more in 2022 - if key contributors are healthy.

As for Devers - I'll worry about that when it happens, if they don't start whatever season that may be with a replacement of some kind.
I tend to agree on Turner and JDM (or at least they will look that way with Turner moving to Fenway and the park factors in the AL East vs LAD and the NL West). FWIW, I do think Yoshida and Verdugo on the corners will be an upgrade to 2022, but will produce (in different ways) similar to what we saw in 2021 with Verdugo and Renfroe... which still leaves you a major middle of the order bat short.

It was the lineup that made up for an exactly mediocre pitching staff (15th in runs allowed) in 2021. I guess my overall point is that I’m (for one) not arguing that Bloom hasn’t put together a team where it’s tough to see them being mediocre. Sure, I can see that, especially if we add another two starters or a starter and a bat type of thing. It should be relatively easy with the Joey Wendell’s of the world to be “alright.”

Though I feel I’ve realized I’m in the minority that I’m all for the peaks and valleys approach, based on the obvious success they’ve had with that approach. I don’t in anyway dispute that Bloom is putting together a team that can consistently be +/- 5 games of 85 wins consistently. I don’t see him building a core that can be supplemented to win a World Series title, more an Oakland / TB model that comes up short each year but is cost effective in doing so. Or, put another way, I think he’s building a roster that could certainly be a wild card or even win a division over the course of 162 games, but I don’t think he’s willing to extend for the elite talent that (2014 Royals aside) ends up hoisting the big trophy in October.

I personally hope FSG isn’t on board with that, and if they are that they sell the team. But I really do hope they want more than a few playoff gates consistently - and since they always have wanted more I’ll continue to believe they’ll make the front office change to get there.
 
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TheYellowDart5

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True - but I suspect Dalbec against lefties will be a feature unless something else changes. I'd be OK with that.
I have a hard time seeing Dalbec's place on this roster with Turner now on board as the backup 3B and the backup 1B against lefties. I assume he'll bide his time in Triple-A barring injury or a trade.
 

Harry Hooper

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I have a hard time seeing Dalbec's place on this roster with Turner now on board as the backup 3B and the backup 1B against lefties. I assume he'll bide his time in Triple-A barring injury or a trade.
Will Turner become the starting 3B is the relevant question.
 

simplicio

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Is that news, or even a rumor? Is there any point in time where they haven't been listening on Verdugo?

Tell us when someone's giving them something to listen to, Pete.
 

bloodysox

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I tend to agree on Turner and JDM (or at least they will look that way with Turner moving to Fenway and the park factors in the AL East vs LAD and the NL West). FWIW, I do think Yoshida and Verdugo on the corners will be an upgrade to 2022, but will produce (in different ways) similar to what we saw in 2021 with Verdugo and Renfroe... which still leaves you a major middle of the order bat short.

It was the lineup that made up for an exactly mediocre pitching staff (15th in runs allowed) in 2021. I guess my overall point is that I’m (for one) not arguing that Bloom hasn’t put together a team where it’s tough to see them being mediocre. Sure, I can see that, especially if we add another two starters or a starter and a bat type of thing. It should be relatively easy with the Joey Wendell’s of the world to be “alright.”

Though I feel I’ve realized I’m in the minority that I’m all for the peaks and valleys approach, based on the obvious success they’ve had with that approach. I don’t in anyway dispute that Bloom is putting together a team that can consistently be +/- 5 games of 85 wins consistently. I don’t see him building a core that can be supplemented to win a World Series title, more an Oakland / TB model that comes up short each year but is cost effective in doing so. Or, put another way, I think he’s building a roster that could certainly be a wild card or even win a division over the course of 162 games, but I don’t think he’s willing to extend for the elite talent that (2014 Royals aside) ends up hoisting the big trophy in October.

I personally hope FSG isn’t on board with that, and if they are that they sell the team. But I really do hope they want more than a few playoff gates consistently - and since they always have wanted more I’ll continue to believe they’ll make the front office change to get there.
I really hope they aren’t dumb enough to actually adopt that as a strategy as they’ve already given Red Sox fans 4 championships and at this point it’s championship or bust for most Red Sox fans.

I guarantee you if they don’t either win a WS or at least make it there within the next 5 years it’s going to get ugly real fast. Shit it’s already getting ugly and that’s after 1 bad season (1 season removed from making the ALCS).

I think it’s much more likely they’re looking to adopt the Dodgers model with great talent development combined with being willing to spend on superstars when it’s well worth it (like with Betts). I’m honestly still not very optimistic but I still have faith that their goal is building a sustainable championship contender.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I have a hard time seeing Dalbec's place on this roster with Turner now on board as the backup 3B and the backup 1B against lefties. I assume he'll bide his time in Triple-A barring injury or a trade.
Dalbec will always be somewhat enticing to other teams. He's got a cute boyish face and tremendous power. There's got to be some team that looks at his swing and thinks they can change a teensy little thing and he could cut down on his K's just enough to be a weapon. I don't think he'll ever bring anything significant back.... Chaim should be looking at pitching waaaay down in the minors in return. Some guy young enough (international or high school draftee) just with a good ability to throw strikes is enough to develop into something very good over 3-4 years.
 

chrisfont9

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If I had to guess how those 2 would get to 40 starts, it would probably be like 25 Sale/15 Paxton. Don't think Paxton takes the $4m if he's ready to go from the jump, & Sale should be totally healthy right now.
This is my guess too, more or less. Not that this is a terribly interesting comment except I would like to demonstrate that there is Sale/Paxton optimism out there. Sale's next injury isn't any sort of guarantee. Paxton seems prone to strains still, but maybe he'll get lucky for a while.
 

chrisfont9

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I really hope they aren’t dumb enough to actually adopt that as a strategy as they’ve already given Red Sox fans 4 championships and at this point it’s championship or bust for most Red Sox fans.

I guarantee you if they don’t either win a WS or at least make it there within the next 5 years it’s going to get ugly real fast. Shit it’s already getting ugly and that’s after 1 bad season (1 season removed from making the ALCS).

I think it’s much more likely they’re looking to adopt the Dodgers model with great talent development combined with being willing to spend on superstars when it’s well worth it (like with Betts). I’m honestly still not very optimistic but I still have faith that their goal is building a sustainable championship contender.
You might be right but maybe it needs to be ugly then. There are 30 teams and something like half of them or more actually know what they are doing these days. If fans can't handle that, then they deserve to suffer blows to their entitlement.
 

Auger34

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Dalbec will always be somewhat enticing to other teams. He's got a cute boyish face and tremendous power. There's got to be some team that looks at his swing and thinks they can change a teensy little thing and he could cut down on his K's just enough to be a weapon. I don't think he'll ever bring anything significant back.... Chaim should be looking at pitching waaaay down in the minors in return. Some guy young enough (international or high school draftee) just with a good ability to throw strikes is enough to develop into something very good over 3-4 years.
Ah yes, the cute boyish face. Definitely completely undervalued in this market. Officially done a 180 from the “we’re not trying to sell jeans” moneyball A’s
 

mcpickl

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I have a hard time seeing Dalbec's place on this roster with Turner now on board as the backup 3B and the backup 1B against lefties. I assume he'll bide his time in Triple-A barring injury or a trade.
I think there is plenty of room for Turner and Dalbec.

I assume Turner is going to be their primary DH. Having another righty bat who handles LHP and can play both corner infield spots, when those spots are currently filled by lefthanded bats, is a pretty valuable guy to have.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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There’s room for Dalbec; a bench of Dalbec, Refsnyder, Wong, and Arroyo is workable- assuming they acquire a Segura/Andrus/ Iglesias and Longoria/Duvall/Mancini types to start / platoon.
 

Benj4ever

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I think we agree. Risk is a necessary part of (life) building a baseball team. I WANT us to take that risk on prospects / rookies. I want us to have more rookies on this team than we do. That's why I mentioned Valdez starting and going with all the kids on the big league pitching staff.

In a season where I don't think we're a serious ALCS contender, I'd rather take that risk on youth. For example, I have concerns about Casas ability to handle LHP (because he had a .591OPS against LHP in AA, and a .617OPS against LHP last year in AAA, followed up by a .611OPS against LHP in the majors). However, in no way, shape or form do I criticize Bloom if the plan is for him to be the every day 1b for the next two years to give him the chance to overcome that. So I'd far rather he be at 1b than signing Brandon Belt, or whomever.



Mostly, see above. I don't think we're going to be good next year, and I don't think adding all the "Andrew Heaneys" you possibly can fit on your 25 man roster makes you any more serious an ALCS contender than seeing what "Tanner Houck" can do instead.

On Heaney specifically, not only does he have a career track record of under-performing (in some cases massively) his FIP on basically an annual basis, but he looks like a guy whom will get shelled in the AL East (the way he did in NY to the tune of a 7.32ERA and that was WITHOUT having to face the Yankees. So I'd rather see what the kids have than be tied in to Heaney for a $12.5m luxury tax hit the next two years.

On Eflin, over the course of his career he's averaged 18 starts (17.5, but I'll be generous) per year in 6 seasons - I discount 2020 across the board - and just signed for $13.3m AAV for the next three years. I want to stay as far away as possible from spending $25m combined on two guys like that so you can sign elite level talent. I think all those "small deals" to guys whom are bad bets add up quicker than a lot of people might consider.

Plus, if you chose to that type of route, I'd rather spend it on Eovaldi or Wacha (whom carry the same "games missed" concern - though not quite as bad since they're both good for about 23/24 starts on average) and have at least shown an ability to pitch in the AL East and in Boston, specifically.
The thing that concerns me about Casas is his ability to handle pitches low in the zone. It seems to me that he took a few of them to strike out, or he just got in weak swings. Either way, that part scares me.
 

LogansDad

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I have to be honest.... I don't get this trade for the Blue Jays, even though I know they probably needed to move one of their catchers for something, but this feels kind of like a panic move, and I think they could have gotten more had they kept trying. It isn't that Varsho is bad, I think he is a fine player, but I think Moreno is going to be a top 5 catcher in the league within the next couple years, and I think Jansen will see some regression.

I am also an idiot, so this is probably going to turn out to be an entirely wrong take.
 

Harry Hooper

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Not really actual rumors but a bit of hot stove pot stirring by Boyle at Fansided: potential trade packages for Devers with the Phillies, Giants, and Mariners.

Key player in a Phillies package: Mick Abel
Key player in a Giants package: Kyle Harrison
Key player in a Mariners package: Harry Ford
 
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mikeford

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I have to be honest.... I don't get this trade for the Blue Jays, even though I know they probably needed to move one of their catchers for something, but this feels kind of like a panic move, and I think they could have gotten more had they kept trying. It isn't that Varsho is bad, I think he is a fine player, but I think Moreno is going to be a top 5 catcher in the league within the next couple years, and I think Jansen will see some regression.

I am also an idiot, so this is probably going to turn out to be an entirely wrong take.
Part of it is also wanting to remove a lineup imbalance. They had way too many guys who hit RH. Doesn't really justify the trading a quarter for 2 dimes kinda thing they've done here but you can at least see the logic. The Jays need to win now while they have this young core together.
 

amfox1

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Not really actual rumors but a bit of hot stove pot stirring by Boyle at Fansided: potential trade packages for Devers with the Phillies, Giants, and Mariners.

Key player in a Phillies package: Mick Abel
Key player in a Giants package: Kyle Harrison
Kep player in a Mariners package: Harry Ford
Abel (#51, MLB Pipeline), 21 YO (as of 4/1/23) RHP, ended year at AA
Harrison (#21), 21 YO LHP, AA
Ford (#64), 20 YO C, A

Makes sense. Trade likely needs two top 10 prospects, a lotto ticket and a major league piece.
 

GammoLovedBlanco

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I am still waiting for Chaim to come through on his promise(podcast with Bradford) to upgrade the staff(starting rotation) and the up-the-middle offense/defense.
It would seem to me Chaim is trying to get the latter with the current reports of the Red Sox interest in Joey Wendle. I like Wendle plenty and think he is the perfect “bridge” to Marcelo. His K rate remained steady and I feel with his bat control and his ability to get on and pepper the gaps; he could be our #2 hitter. With my one Christmas wish ()I’m hoping Chaim includes one of Alcantara(), Luzardo, Cabrera or Lopez, in that order. The only untouchables on our end would be Mayer, Casas and Rafaella.
Maybe they’d like to cater to their sizable Latino following and make Rafael Devers the face of their franchise.Let’s make it a blockbuster… They have plenty of current big league players and prospects I’d like to be cheering for.

Merry Christmas and God Bless you and your loved ones…
There are many of my(USMC)fellow U.S. veterans that are suffering with mental and physical issues this holiday season. Please keep them/us in your prayers❤
 

sezwho

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I am still waiting for Chaim to come through on his promise(podcast with Bradford) to upgrade the staff(starting rotation) and the up-the-middle offense/defense.
It would seem to me Chaim is trying to get the latter with the current reports of the Red Sox interest in Joey Wendle. I like Wendle plenty and think he is the perfect “bridge” to Marcelo. His K rate remained steady and I feel with his bat control and his ability to get on and pepper the gaps; he could be our #2 hitter. With my one Christmas wish ()I’m hoping Chaim includes one of Alcantara(), Luzardo, Cabrera or Lopez, in that order. The only untouchables on our end would be Mayer, Casas and Rafaella.
Maybe they’d like to cater to their sizable Latino following and make Rafael Devers the face of their franchise.Let’s make it a blockbuster… They have plenty of current big league players and prospects I’d like to be cheering for.

Merry Christmas and God Bless you and your loved ones…
There are many of my(USMC)fellow U.S. veterans that are suffering with mental and physical issues this holiday season. Please keep them/us in your prayers❤
Thanks for your service, you and your fellow Marines (and my friends & family in other branches as well) are in our thoughts and prayers, particularly those separated from family this time of year.

Thank you
 

chawson

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I read the Wendle report as more pot-stirring. Reporters like Jennings have to file something every day. I’m sure Bloom has checked in on Wendle — by every indication, the FO keeps tabs on the cost and availability of many, many players. Wendle has kind of a diminutive-sounding name and is an ex-Ray, so the notion that he’d replace Bogaerts aptly pushes the buttons of people who are already mad — and look, it worked.

FWIW, Jennings admitted as much yesterday in The Athletic: “Calm down about Joey Wendle. Our report on Thursday that the Sox were showing some trade interest in the veteran infielder seemed to generate a lot of anger…They’ve brought him up in trade talks because he’s a left-handed role player, and they have an open spot on their bench. Getting him wouldn’t change their need and desire to do something bigger.”
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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What is the “something bigger”? The “calm down” stuff seems eerily reminiscent of last year when those who were wondering what the deal with JBJ in RF was. Eventually check ins and inquiries and interest need to be converted into actions.
 

chawson

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What is the “something bigger”? The “calm down” stuff seems eerily reminiscent of last year when those who were wondering what the deal with JBJ in RF was. Eventually check ins and inquiries and interest need to be converted into actions.
I’d argue that it doesn’t need to be something bigger, it just needs to be good.

Or I’d argue that we already replaced Bogaerts, the 4th-most valuable shortstop (by fWAR) from the last half-decade, with the 8th-most valuable shortstop, who is more likely to be able to play the position going forward. We just did it last year and the shine has worn off.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ok, I kind of agree, but a large % of Story’s fWAR is coming from his defense…and many think he can no longer play SS. If he is the SS, why doesn’t the team just say that, though?

As far as Reynolds goes, if the Pirates want a top pitching prospect, the Sox won’t be able to get him without giving up Bello. That’s kind of the problem with pulling off a big trade- most teams want high ceiling pitching in return and the Sox don’t really have that.
 
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The publicly available metrics on Reynolds's work in center field are all over the place. In his career in CF:

Defensive Runs Saved: -16
Ultimate Zone Rating: -7.1
Outs Above Average: +4


I love the bat but it seems really foolish to displace Hernandez and his stellar defense in center given the price tag Reynolds will fetch in talent.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Couldn’t they move Hernandez to SS? There are some reports out there that some in the org prefer him at SS to Story. Or course, I don’t think they have what it takes to get Reynolds anyways but if they did, seems like they could make it work.
 

ehaz

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Couldn’t they move Hernandez to SS? There are some reports out there that some in the org prefer him at SS to Story. Or course, I don’t think they have what it takes to get Reynolds anyways but if they did, seems like they could make it work.
The defensive metrics all like Hernandez at SS over the course of his career. Problem becomes Yoshida / Reynolds / Verdugo might be the worst defensive OF in the league depending on your evaluation of Reynolds in CF.

Yoshida / Hernandez / Reynolds looks pretty good though.