Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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Not a bad role for him, honestly: he throws strikes, so he could eat innings in low leverage spots as the thirteenth pitcher on the roster.
Plus he has options which is pretty important if you're talking about the 13th pitcher on the roster. When they're in a spot where they burn him in a blowout (win or loss) and they need a fresher arm, he can be sent down to make room.
Yeah, I hear ya. I totally agree that there should be a lot of big moves this offseason and I have no idea what's in store. I'd be surprised though, if they signed one of the big four SP FAs attached to QOs. Senga seems like a strong possibility, though.
New guy here. Not much of a Cora fan, and I do question his bullpen management. The biggest problem I have with the bullpen moving forward, though, is the trend of starters going 5 innings. When your pen pitches as much as the Sox' did last year, things will invariably go wrong.
I understand your frustration---especially since we didn't exactly have a lockdown bullpen, but Boston was only 9th in innings pitched by relievers. Now admittedly the list of teams above them isn't exactly awe-inspiring, but they weren't outliers. And by xFIP they were the 9th best bullpen. I think a lot of it is they got overexposed especially when the majority of the rotation was out injured. But I don't think the trend of starters going 5 innings is limited to the Sox or is going away any time soon.
In 2022, the MLB average was 5.2 innings per start. MLB average 10 years ago was 5.9 innings per start, as it also was twenty years ago. The trend of starters going 5 innings is not exclusive to the Red Sox nor a trend that is likely to reverse anytime soon.
The 5 inning start seemed- at least - to only be an inflexible thing for the first month before the starters were allowed- when they weren’t getting destroyed- to go past 5.
Even if you want to restrict it to the first month or so, it wasn't a Red Sox exclusive thing. The whole league had their starters on pitch/inning restrictions the first month of the season. For March/April, the Red Sox were 20th of 30 teams in innings per start (4.7). League average was 4.8 innings per start, and the league leaders were only at 5.4 innings (Padres, Mets, Marlins). That's roughly a difference of two outs per game between the Sox and the top teams.
The Sox were relying on a lot of starts from Crawford, Bello, and Winckowski after the early season limit was lifted too
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1594902618907807744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1594902618907807744%7Ctwgr%5E45126c8dac261ee579c735948c656565ef403073%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.soxprospects.com%2Fthread%2F6036%2Fdevers-extension%3Fpage%3D1
Knowing they offered 220 mil without knowing how many years isn't terribly useful. I'd guess 8 (27.5 AAV), maybe 9 (24.4 AAV)? I think if it was 7 (31.4 AAV) he'd have accepted?
Knowing they offered 220 mil without knowing how many years isn't terribly useful. I'd guess 8 (27.5 AAV), maybe 9 (24.4 AAV)? I think if it was 7 (31.4 AAV) he'd have accepted?
If it's just a straight 220 mil offer -- no options or opt outs or anything like that -- I can't see a denominator other than 7, 8, or 9. *Maybe* 10, but that would only be an opening offer as a means to make something else feel like a middle ground.
Agreed. my hope is 7 gets it done. I don’t think he would jump on 8 or more, and six seems rich
So there is optimism that they can “bridge the gap”. Is there any word on what the “gap” is? What has Devers asked for?
Probably 7 with an opt out somewhere.... Gives him the opportunity to opt out and still be at an age to get a bigger contract or finish this contract and be age 33 and still in line to get another decent contract.
"or so" is a heck of a descriptor. I suppose it makes sense to sign Devers first since he might not be too enthralled to sign if Bogaerts has signed eleswhere already.
I think that's right. I'd be satisfied with 7. Or 8 with an opt out after 3 years.
I think there are only 3 3Bman making $30M/yr or more: Rendon, Arenado, and Machado. All three were better overall players than Raffy when they signed their deals, although only Machado was as young. Then there’s a drop off to Ramirez, who’s just over $20. I’m guessing the Sox want to keep the AAV down below $30. If it’s below $25, then going 10 years is probably palatable. If they would go to 10/$261+, that would put Raffy #4 in AAV but #2 in total $.
If Devers insists on getting to $300, I doubt a deal with us gets done. All three of those top guys had to go elsewhere to get those huge deals. I’m hopeful that they can find a middle ground between $220 and $300, keeping the AAV down while giving Devers more options/control: an opt out after year 3 or 4, a limited no trade and/or trade escalator if he opts in.
If Devers insists on getting to $300, I doubt a deal with us gets done. All three of those top guys had to go elsewhere to get those huge deals. I’m hopeful that they can find a middle ground between $220 and $300, keeping the AAV down while giving Devers more options/control: an opt out after year 3 or 4, a limited no trade and/or trade escalator if he opts in.
I had a dream last night that the Sox signed Trevor Rosenthal. So I'm reporting that as a rumor.
Is that still an option? Speculating about taking a flyer on him is an annual tradition, but on the other hand, he's thrown maybe 50 professional innings in the last five years.
Is that still an option? Speculating about taking a flyer on him is an annual tradition, but on the other hand, he's thrown maybe 50 professional innings in the last five years.
"few weeks" and "baby the starters" aren't really carrying the weight you are assigning to them.
Pivetta made his 1st 6-inning start on May 6.(81/54/96/98) (not really babied before that. He just wasn't very good).
Eovaldi pitched 7 innings in his 4th start April 25 (76/101/95/72/95
Hill was never going to go deep very often.
Wacha pitched 6 innings in his 4th start. (72/79/82/92)
Agreed. So annoying to see this thread bumped repeatedly only to see the latest argument about one guy's memories of how the bullpen was used last April.
Please call the thread "We know how to run a major league bullpen better than the stupid manager does."
EDIT: Thread has been started, thank you!
Excellent idea. But it might be best to wait until after they lose on Opening Day.
As for rumors, there's this:
MLB experts predict if Xander Bogaerts will sign with Red Sox and for how much - masslive.com
At the bottom of that article is some Bowden speculation on Eovaldi...
Oof! I can't see 4 years and 90M for Eovaldi. If another team offers him that...vaya con dios, Nate.
That seems crazy high and I'm a fan who is hoping to keep him. Not at those numbers, though.
View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1595084708718993408?s=46&t=jDAL1EKxtHPxGBjUV2Buvg
Rafael Devers aspires to reach $300 MM, and little by little the #RedSox have been getting closer. TODAY, the difference is around $50 MM. Conversations are still flowing...
Rafael Devers aspires to reach $300 MM, and little by little the #RedSox have been getting closer. TODAY, the difference is around $50 MM. Conversations are still flowing...
The rumor link posted by @joe dokes above includes these guesses by the ESPN "experts":
Here’s what they predicted for Bogaerts:
McDaniel: Boston Red Sox, six years, $168 million
Doolittle: Chicago Cubs, six years, $180 million
Schoenfield: Los Angeles Angels, six years, $184 million
Rogers: Giants (or Cubs), six years, $180 million
Lee: Red Sox, six years, $175 million
Olney: Red Sox, five years, $150 million
Gonzalez: Red Sox, seven years, $196 million
Other teams mentioned: Cubs, Giants, Angels.
The average predicted length is 6 years, with only one guess at 7 years and another at 5. Their combined guesses at average per season are right around $30 million.
I would not like to see us lose X to another team for a 6-year, $30 million contract.
We should be willing to match that or even top it by a bit, IMO.
Here’s what they predicted for Bogaerts:
McDaniel: Boston Red Sox, six years, $168 million
Doolittle: Chicago Cubs, six years, $180 million
Schoenfield: Los Angeles Angels, six years, $184 million
Rogers: Giants (or Cubs), six years, $180 million
Lee: Red Sox, six years, $175 million
Olney: Red Sox, five years, $150 million
Gonzalez: Red Sox, seven years, $196 million
Other teams mentioned: Cubs, Giants, Angels.
The average predicted length is 6 years, with only one guess at 7 years and another at 5. Their combined guesses at average per season are right around $30 million.
I would not like to see us lose X to another team for a 6-year, $30 million contract.
We should be willing to match that or even top it by a bit, IMO.
I could live with around 10/300. And yes, there’s a bit of ”please don’t go” motivation to that.
edit: and if those predictions in the post above are accurate then there’s no reason to lose X to another team. I think those numbers are completely palatable.
If you haven't already would you mind adding your offers to my thread on this topic?
Based on the responses there you two are at the top of the curve for offers to X. Only two posters in my thread went 6+ years and 30+ AAV (one offered 6/180 and one 7/210). There were lots of offers of 6+ years and several more offers of 30+mm AAV, but aside from those 2 the 30mm+ offers were all 5 years or less and the 6+ year offers were all <30mm
Someday, a writer will predict that a team will sign every available free agent ... then claim they were right after it all played out
That would be a good offseason, although a lot would ride on the health of Haniger and Eovaldi. I don't know about the particulars, but I expect something on that scale.
It’s sort of already been done: https://www.theonion.com/yankees-ensure-2003-pennant-by-signing-every-player-in-1819566731
Not the big move we're all waiting for, but a lefty bullpen arm:
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1595453575030882309?s=20&t=5o_g4FgQts0QKDVE7oD7JA
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1595453575030882309?s=20&t=5o_g4FgQts0QKDVE7oD7JA
Strong agree on this one. There's certainly some risk that at age 36 his production falls off a cliff, but he could also have an Ortiz-ish career trajectory. He's old enough that nobody should be offering him anything more than short years, and that's exactly what we need. If we get him for 2 years and he falls apart it's not that big of a liability, but if he maintains his current level he's a really solid asset. Great gamble to take.
Looking at his regular stats, doesn't look like much, but his baseballsavant page shows a lot of stuff in the 90th percentile. And he's always walked a lot of guy, but last year was specially bad.
I would sign up for this in a heartbeat. We'd be vastly improved without losing any draft/international compensation or being tied into any long contracts other than Xander, and we'd keep basically all our prospects.
I was listening to MLB Radio yesterday and they were discussing Senga with one of their guests. Duquette and the guest (forgot who) were discussing Senga only having 2 plus pitches and profiles much better as a reliever/closer or as mid rotation starter at best. With the rumors of the Sox at least kicking the tires on Senga does anyone have a better handle on what his pitch profile looks like and how it would translate to MLB?
They mentioned Gausman as 2 pitch pitcher comp. All I could think of is him being our new Koji (Koji=Kodai) but I cant imagine going hard after a closer at this point.
They mentioned Gausman as 2 pitch pitcher comp. All I could think of is him being our new Koji (Koji=Kodai) but I cant imagine going hard after a closer at this point.
Yeah, I wouldn't really tag Cora with "tendencies" based solely on a season when his entire rotation was out.
In the other thread I offered 7/200 for X (with vesting option based on PAs) and 7/310 for Raffy, so 6/180 and 10/300 are in line with those (I was just reacting here to the suggestions in this thread as to what it would take - which I would do, especially given the alternatives).