Red Sox prospects rankings, preseason 2020

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
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There are a lot of different prospect ranking sites out there. Now that Keith Law has come out with his Red Sox prospects list, I took a look at that and some other lists to see if there was any consensus on who our top prospects are.

Law writes for the Athletic now, so his new Sox top prospects list is behind their paywall:

Keith Law top 10:
1. Downs
2. Casas
3. Song
4. Groome
5. Duran
6. Ward
7. Dalbec
8. Jimenez
9. Mata
10. Houck

Fangraphs has a list from December 2019, but it was updated after the trade where we got J.D. Downs and Wong:

1. Downs
2. Casas
3. Mata
4. Dalbec
5. Song
6. Jimenez
7. Lugo
8. Cannon
9. Houck
10. Duran

MLB.com:

1. Casas
2. Downs
3. Dalbec
4. Mata
5. Duran
6. Houck
7. Groome
8. Jimenez
9. Ward
10. Chatham

Prospects1500.com, whatever that is:

1. Casas
2. Downs
3. Dalbec
4. Jimenez
5. Mata
6. Groome
7. Duran
8. Ward
9. Houck
10. Chatham

Sox prospects:

1. Casas
2. Downs
3. Mata
4. Groome
5. Jimenez
6. Dalbec
7. Duran
8. Houck
9. Song
10. Chatham

Here's a consensus from these 5 sources:
Consensus Points (10 points for a top ranking, 9 for #2, etc.):
1. Casas: 48
2. Downs: 47

3. Dalbec: 32
4. Mata: 31

5. Jimenez: 24
6. Groome: 23
7. Duran: 21

8. Song: 16
9. Houck: 13
10. Ward: 10

11. Lugo: 4
12. Cannon: 3
13. Chatham: 3

#1 or #2 in all 5 lists:
Casas and Downs

In the Top 10 on all 5 lists:
Downs, Casas, Duran, Dalbec, Jiminez, Mata, and Houck
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
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Thanks for pulling that together. I think I’d have Groome 3 and Song 4; Dalbac 5; nobody else is more likely to have an extended major league run than not.
 

geoflin

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Feb 26, 2004
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Melrose MA
Baseball Prospectus' list from before the Downs/Wong trade:

1. Casas
2. Song
3. Dalbec
4. Duran
5. Ward
6. Groome
7. Mata
8. Houck
9. Jiminez
10. Lugo

Neither Casas nor Downs was in their top 101 in baseball so can't place Downs on this list accurately.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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I'm amazed Cannon made a top 10 list. He struggled mightily in his debut as a 21 almost 22 year old in short season ball. He was the 2nd round pick tho. .200/.284/.324 in 190 PA with 12bb/42k in Rookie ball for a college kid is not very inspiring.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
Quite a spread of opinion on Groome (4th per Law and SoxProspects, 15th per Fangraphs).
His FG scouting grades table is fascinating:

FB 55/55
CB 55/65
CH 45/55
Command 40/50
FV 40

Pardon me if I'm misreading, but the take-home seems to be: we think his future value is defined by the current state of his weakest attribute. Which in turn seems to imply: we have zero expectations for future growth.
 

thestardawg

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Jul 30, 2005
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His FG scouting grades table is fascinating:

FB 55/55
CB 55/65
CH 45/55
Command 40/50
FV 40

Pardon me if I'm misreading, but the take-home seems to be: we think his future value is defined by the current state of his weakest attribute. Which in turn seems to imply: we have zero expectations for future growth.
 

thestardawg

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Jul 30, 2005
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Section 38, Row 13
They probably believe it’s more likely than not that he will end up in the bullpen which limits his value and further believe his injuries will keep him from reaching his ceiling.
 

billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
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yeah, Groome's grades are based on how he looked as an amateur and the few innings he's been healthy over the past 3 years.

Groome has been really unlucky, as other have noted. He's barely played. How can you project improvement if he's not on the field?


Like if you want to take the rose colored view of him it's this:

He has possibly the 2nd highest ceiling in the system behind Casas. A possible number 2 when he was drafted. If he can stay healthy, he has all the same tools as when he was drafted. Also, there were a ton of questions about his makeup and conditioning and too his credit, he's been a model prospect since going pro and really took to conditioning and no longer looks like a bad body SP.

Given his family situation as a teenage, and the fact that he's kept himself out of trouble and conditioned like crazy through different, almost certainly demoralizing, injuries, I'm rooting for the guy.
 

billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
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I'm amazed Cannon made a top 10 list. He struggled mightily in his debut as a 21 almost 22 year old in short season ball. He was the 2nd round pick tho. .200/.284/.324 in 190 PA with 12bb/42k in Rookie ball for a college kid is not very inspiring.
Elite college hitter with questions about defensive destination and raw power struggling in a non-aggressive initial placement.

I hope he was just out of gas because that reads a lot like Kolbrin Vitek.
 
Nov 24, 2007
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We'll find out down the line if Kyle Hart has a scout's eye, but he sees Jarren Duran as a future star. This from Ian Browne's notebook on MLB.com on 8/18/20 (https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/jackie-bradley-jr-sits-with-sore-wrist):
Prospect report
In addition to discussing his upcoming start, Hart also provided a report on exciting Red Sox prospect Jarren Duran, the club’s No. 8 prospect as ranked by MLB Pipeline.
A left-handed hitting center fielder, Duran was electrifying both in Spring Training and in a Summer Camp cameo. Hart got a chance to compete against him at the team’s alternate training site in Pawtucket, R.I.
“Jarren is one of the most talented players that I’ve seen step on a baseball field, to put it bluntly. He’s got just about everything you would want in a baseball player and if I’m pitching, he can play behind me any day,” said Hart. “Both offensively and defensively, he’s got that youthful mindset where he doesn’t weigh himself down too much. He doesn’t put a lot of stress on a bad at-bat or a good at-bat.”
“He was hitting balls hard in Pawtucket, off me included. It was a really good at-bat every time he stepped in, whereas usually those uber-talented young guys can be easy outs sometimes. He’s not an easy out. And that’s a lefty-on-lefty matchup, too, where I should have an advantage. We had some good battles down there.
“He hit one a mile off me to dead center and I got him a couple of times. He got me a couple of other times. My kind of hot take on Jarren Duran is that he’ll be in the big leagues for a long, long time. It’s just a matter of kind of when and where he’s going to get that opportunity.”
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Rogers Park
I am excited that we now find ourselves in a situation where we have ten prospects a well-informed observer could plausibly consider more promising than Rosario.