It means Nunez is on the roster. If last year is any indication, there's not necessarily any correlation between the two factors you mentioned.
Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
Phillips' one XBH brought a whole lot of WPA. thanks for the memory (think he retires now).
Looks like JoKe is going to make it...
Looks like JoKe is going to make it...
Alex Speier @alexspeier 4m4 minutes ago
Cora confirms Eovaldi is available out of the bullpen for G1 and is almost certain to be the G4 starter if Sox face Yankees. If it’s the A’s, Sox are still deciding on Eovaldi vs Rodriguez for G4 start.
Cora confirms Eovaldi is available out of the bullpen for G1 and is almost certain to be the G4 starter if Sox face Yankees. If it’s the A’s, Sox are still deciding on Eovaldi vs Rodriguez for G4 start.
Wow. Pleasant surprise there. So does that mean:
- Betts
- JBJ
- Martinez
- Benintendi
- Holt
- Nunez
- Devers
- Bogaerts
- Kinsler
- Pearce
- Holt
- Vazquez
- Leon
- Swihart
- Sale
- Price
- Porcello
- ERod
- Eovaldi
- Kimbrel
- Barnes
- Brasier
- Kelley
- Wright
- Workman
- Hembree
You could probably make an argument for Lin and Nunez over Kinsler and Nunez but that was never going to happen.
It seems impossible that even with a numbered list I could manage that. I will stand by the list and drop number 26. Hembree.
- Betts
- JBJ
- Martinez
- Benintendi
- Holt
- Nunez
- Devers
- Bogaerts
- Kinsler
- Pearce
- Holt
- Vazquez
- Leon
- Swihart
- Sale
- Price
- Porcello
- ERod
- Eovaldi
- Kimbrel
- Barnes
- Brasier
- Kelley
- Wright
- Workman
it's 25, as the poster above mentioned above but there was also no mention of Poyner. Maybe he just went home.
I'd prefer Poyner to Kelly, so...
OF
- Betts
- JBJ
- Martinez
- Benintendi
- Devers
- Bogaerts
- Kinsler
- Moreland
- Vazquez
- Leon
- Swihart
- Holt
- Nunez
- Pearce
Starters
- Sale
- Price
- Porcello
- ERod
- Eovaldi
- Kimbrel
- Barnes
- Brasier
- Wright
- Workman
- Poyner
Bradfo says: "It would appear that Joe Kelly, Bobby Poyner. Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree are vying for the final two spots in the Red Sox' bullpen."
I would go with Poyner and Hembree.
I would go with Poyner and Hembree.
You have Holt twice.
And whither Pomeranz? Not "sent home." Not "told to be ready."
Oh, wait.....here he is talking with Dombrowski:
Can’t do it Sally.You have Holt twice.
And whither Pomeranz? Not "sent home." Not "told to be ready."
Oh, wait.....here he is talking with Dombrowski:
You have Holt twice.
And whither Pomeranz? Not "sent home." Not "told to be ready."
Oh, wait.....here he is talking with Dombrowski:
There is no way that Drew Pomeranz belongs on the postseason roster.
You've directly contradicted yourself here. Projection systems don't claim to say what will happen, they claim to estimate the probability of different outcomes. If someone claims that there is an 80% chance that X will happen and a 20% chance that Y will happen, and Y happens it does not mean that the original claim was wrong. You can only evaluate the original claim if you take a large enough sample of events.
And those pre-season win projections? They have huge error bars (which the projection systems readily admit to), and it's perhaps better to think of them as an estimate of what the team's expected value is on wins, not a statement that the team will have exactly that many wins.
Let's say I'm rolling a six sided die, and that we know the die is truly random. We know mathematically that the expected value of my roll is 3.5, but I will literally never roll a 3.5. I'll only roll a 3 or a 4 1/3 of the time, and I'll roll an "extreme" result of 1 or 6 a third of the time. That doesn't mean that the expected value isn't 3.5.
Assuming no injuries pop up, the fielders are locked.
Andrew Benintendi LF
Mookie Betts RF
Jackie Bradley Jr. CF
J.D. Martinez DH-OF
Mitch Moreland 1st
Steve Pearce 1st
Ian Kinsler 2nd
Brock Holt 2nd-SS
Xander Bogaerts SS
Rafael Devers 3rd
Eduardo Nunez 3rd
Sandy Leon C
Christian Vazquez C
Blake Swihart Anywhere
And I went with Poyner and Workman, assuming Barnes is in good shape. But I would not put all my lunch money on those two. But they have had better Septembers than Hembree or Kelly. And Poyner is a lefty.
Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduardo Rodriguez
Brandon Workman
Bobby Poyner
Matt Barnes
Steven Wright
Ryan Brasier
Craig Kimbrel
Hoping for a great postseason!
Andrew Benintendi LF
Mookie Betts RF
Jackie Bradley Jr. CF
J.D. Martinez DH-OF
Mitch Moreland 1st
Steve Pearce 1st
Ian Kinsler 2nd
Brock Holt 2nd-SS
Xander Bogaerts SS
Rafael Devers 3rd
Eduardo Nunez 3rd
Sandy Leon C
Christian Vazquez C
Blake Swihart Anywhere
And I went with Poyner and Workman, assuming Barnes is in good shape. But I would not put all my lunch money on those two. But they have had better Septembers than Hembree or Kelly. And Poyner is a lefty.
Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduardo Rodriguez
Brandon Workman
Bobby Poyner
Matt Barnes
Steven Wright
Ryan Brasier
Craig Kimbrel
Hoping for a great postseason!
Yes. The top two can't hit, the 3rd one plays multiple positions, and the team has been pretty good at pinch-hitting this year (to the extent that's a skill, so YMMV). I expect that Cora will treat the catcher's spot like an NL pitcher, in terms of pinch-hitting. 4th or 5th inning, close game, men on, he's not letting Leon hit.
They were only carrying 8 or 9 pitchers, but theDick Williams A's went through a stretch when they pinch hit for the 2nd baseman nearly every at bat. I think 9 different players saw time at 2B in 1973.
![[icon]](https://sosh-cdn.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/avatars/m/9/9352.jpg?1560259877){kind=avatar}
You're spot on with where you're heading here, but wanted to say you're analogy follows a center-weighted probability model, wheras a 6 sided die is an evenly weighted probability.
Perhaps a better analogy is a game of Craps, where you have a 6/36 chance of rolling a 7, 5/36 chance of rolling a 6 or 8, 4/36 chance of 5 or 9, etc. You're going to project a 7 given it's the peak of the curve, but there's a 30/36 chance it WON'T be a 7... with probability diminishing as you get farther from that 7.
That said, I'm in agreement with your message. Just clarifying.
I'm looking at Pomeranz' recent outings and trying to decipher if he's a better lefty option out of the pen than Poyner. Stats only go so far...I wish I could remember what they actually looked like and what the situation was (in other words - please help)
Putting aside the last 2 games of the season:
DP:
28 Sep: Handled Andujar, Sanchez, Torres, McCutchen, Judge, Hicks and Stanton before Voit homered (if he had plunked him - I'd automatically reward Drew with a spot). Then Gregorious singled and Andujar walked. DP stayed in too long.
22 Sep: Came into a tie game in the 11th. Gomes (RHH) had an infield hit on a 10-pitch ab followed by a 2-2 single to Allen (RHH) an IBB and a game winning single by Brantley (LHH)
21 Sep: Protecting a 2-run lead, Struck Out Kipnis and Lindor before hitting Brantley who scored on an error by Travis. Then walked Encanarcion on a 3-2 pitch before getting pulled
16 Sep: 2 line outs and a ground out in the 5th. Single to Jackson, double to Rosario, line out, sacrifice fly and a double to Conforto.
BP:
28 Sep: Lead off homer to Judge, fly out (Hicks), fly out (Stanton), strike out (Voit) - all RHH. Next inning (9th) line out (Gregorious), pop out (Andujar), double (Sanchez) and struck out Torres. Long outing...did OK
23 Sep: Tie game in the 5th - K'd Haase, Lindor ground out, K'd Brantley. Walked Ramirez in the 6th and was pulled.
21 Sep: 5th inning down by 2 - Double to Lindor, Brantley bunt hit, Ramirez sac fly, K'd Encanarcion and got Donaldson to foul out on the first pitch
15 Sep: 6th inning up by 2 - pop out, ground out, strike out against the Mets (LHH, LHH, LHH)
Recent history shows Poyner performing better in similar situations. Neither of the 2 throw hard. If I recall correctly, Poyner relies more on location and Pomeranz on deception (slop).
I hope neither of them ever has to come into a late and close game, but Poyner has done pretty well the last week or so.
Putting aside the last 2 games of the season:
DP:
28 Sep: Handled Andujar, Sanchez, Torres, McCutchen, Judge, Hicks and Stanton before Voit homered (if he had plunked him - I'd automatically reward Drew with a spot). Then Gregorious singled and Andujar walked. DP stayed in too long.
22 Sep: Came into a tie game in the 11th. Gomes (RHH) had an infield hit on a 10-pitch ab followed by a 2-2 single to Allen (RHH) an IBB and a game winning single by Brantley (LHH)
21 Sep: Protecting a 2-run lead, Struck Out Kipnis and Lindor before hitting Brantley who scored on an error by Travis. Then walked Encanarcion on a 3-2 pitch before getting pulled
16 Sep: 2 line outs and a ground out in the 5th. Single to Jackson, double to Rosario, line out, sacrifice fly and a double to Conforto.
BP:
28 Sep: Lead off homer to Judge, fly out (Hicks), fly out (Stanton), strike out (Voit) - all RHH. Next inning (9th) line out (Gregorious), pop out (Andujar), double (Sanchez) and struck out Torres. Long outing...did OK
23 Sep: Tie game in the 5th - K'd Haase, Lindor ground out, K'd Brantley. Walked Ramirez in the 6th and was pulled.
21 Sep: 5th inning down by 2 - Double to Lindor, Brantley bunt hit, Ramirez sac fly, K'd Encanarcion and got Donaldson to foul out on the first pitch
15 Sep: 6th inning up by 2 - pop out, ground out, strike out against the Mets (LHH, LHH, LHH)
Recent history shows Poyner performing better in similar situations. Neither of the 2 throw hard. If I recall correctly, Poyner relies more on location and Pomeranz on deception (slop).
I hope neither of them ever has to come into a late and close game, but Poyner has done pretty well the last week or so.
My roster...
C - Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
1b - Pearce, Moreland
2b - Kinsler
SS - Bogaerts
3b - Devers
IF - Holt, Nunez (assuming he's ok)
OF - Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Martinez
SP - Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi
RP - Rodriguez, Barnes, Kimbrel, Poyner, Brasier, Wright, Workman
I don't want Kelly on the roster, but I'd have him stay sharp and bring him with the team. Who knows what will happen.
Wright and Rodriguez could be longer relievers in case of a starting pitcher blowup. Or to bridge the gap between starter and closer (innings 5-7, say). Poyner is the LOOGY. Barnes and Brasier are the key RH setup guys. Kimbrel obviously closes. Workman is the messy clean up guy.
Pearce starts against LHP. Holt and Nunez provide nice options off the bench. Swihart is the key PR or pinch-hitting C. Lots of options with 14 position players.
C - Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
1b - Pearce, Moreland
2b - Kinsler
SS - Bogaerts
3b - Devers
IF - Holt, Nunez (assuming he's ok)
OF - Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Martinez
SP - Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi
RP - Rodriguez, Barnes, Kimbrel, Poyner, Brasier, Wright, Workman
I don't want Kelly on the roster, but I'd have him stay sharp and bring him with the team. Who knows what will happen.
Wright and Rodriguez could be longer relievers in case of a starting pitcher blowup. Or to bridge the gap between starter and closer (innings 5-7, say). Poyner is the LOOGY. Barnes and Brasier are the key RH setup guys. Kimbrel obviously closes. Workman is the messy clean up guy.
Pearce starts against LHP. Holt and Nunez provide nice options off the bench. Swihart is the key PR or pinch-hitting C. Lots of options with 14 position players.
There was some talk about using a catcher as an opener. I don't know if this will or should actually happen, but it's interesting.
The most basic model here would be to treat Sandy Leon as if he were a pitcher in the NL, letting him get 1-2 PA, but planning to lift him for a PH: we should have two of Moreland, Pearce, Devers, Núñez, and Holt on the bench, and all of those guys can hit. Swihart is simpler.
On the road, you could even do something positively Belangerish, and give, say, Pearce a start at Catcher high in the order, sub in Leon in the bottom of the first, and then go from there.
Again, not sure we should do this, but three catchers gives Cora flexibility.
The most basic model here would be to treat Sandy Leon as if he were a pitcher in the NL, letting him get 1-2 PA, but planning to lift him for a PH: we should have two of Moreland, Pearce, Devers, Núñez, and Holt on the bench, and all of those guys can hit. Swihart is simpler.
On the road, you could even do something positively Belangerish, and give, say, Pearce a start at Catcher high in the order, sub in Leon in the bottom of the first, and then go from there.
link
Again, not sure we should do this, but three catchers gives Cora flexibility.
I'm a little surprised they told Johnson and Velazquez to stick around but not Tzu-Wei Lin. The way Nunez has been prone to hurt his legs on short notice I thought it might be a good precaution.
Is anyone else surprised they’re committing to Eovaldi for a start over EdRo? I know Eo has done well against the MFY but it’s still SSS. I don’t think anyone would so EdRo is not the better pitcher.
it's SSS but NY eats up non-elite lefties. ERod is not there yet, walked 7 in a clinch game a couple weeks ago at Yankee Stadium. go with the power righty.
Cora and coaches are going with “ride the hot hand” and not worrying about SSS.
Lin was sent to Ft Myers to stay in shape just in case they need him. Johnson and Velazquez hung around to throw live BP during the week to keep everyone sharp. Wouldn't surprise me if they were sent to Ft Myers too once the series starts.
Yeah I hear you. I would be pretty bummed if I was ERod though. He’s had a helluva year for the most part, and is a much bigger part of the team’s future than Eovaldi.
That doesn't seem like enough of a split to be a factor, but maybe it is. I thought it would be more of a spread that this.
If the Sox are going to win the WS this year, Rodriguez likely will play a major part in it. I doubt he's all that bummed.
Roster has been officially set.
Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi
Kimbrel, Barnes, Brazier, Kelly, Workman, Wright, Rodriguez
Leon, Swihart, Vazquez
Moreland, Pearce, Kinsler, Holt, Bogaerts, Nunez, Devers
Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez
Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi
Kimbrel, Barnes, Brazier, Kelly, Workman, Wright, Rodriguez
Leon, Swihart, Vazquez
Moreland, Pearce, Kinsler, Holt, Bogaerts, Nunez, Devers
Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez
I'm surprised with Workman over Hembree.
What do you think the tipping point was?
(Please, no "Hembree Sucks" answers)
What do you think the tipping point was?
(Please, no "Hembree Sucks" answers)
It may not be as simple as "Hembree Sucks" but I do think it has a lot to do with late season performance. Hembree kinda fell off in August, in particular his strikeout rate. He's a strikeout pitcher and he wasn't getting as many whiffs late in the year. His K/9 by month...10.1, 12.3, 11.8, 14.8, 8.6, 9.9. If Hembree isn't striking guys out, he's very hittable. Workman may not have the big fastball or the high K rate, but he's much more consistent with a better mix of pitches. Plus he's been successful in high pressure playoff spots before.
I thought they might go with Poyner over Kelly. Otherwise it's exactly as I would have suspected.
Over the last two months, Hembree has been pretty regularly ineffective. Workman has been effective much more often than not. Workman also had a game or 3 where he was clearly not very good, but managed not to gascan the whole thing. And I wonder if Workman's nerve-less 2013 run is a point in his favor with Cora.
I'm a little surprised Kelly made it. So many of his second half outings were awful. Cora seemed frustrated with him at times in post game pressers.
I guess it comes down to not having many better alternatives and that Kelly throws gas. But damn, keep that guy far from high leverage.
I could see a role for Kelly as a sort of a ROOGY, being brought in to get one out against a batter that analytics or recent history say he matches up well against. Is there anyone on the MFY who’s been especially bad facing JoKe?
Edit: Gardner, Walker and Gregorius are a combined 5-for-47 (BA .106) against Kelly. Stanton is 2-8. Judge 3-10.
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Velazquez has an ERA of 3.18 this year, Kelly 4.39. They are both right-handed and both struggled at various times late in the year. What are the fancy stats that make Kelly the better choice?
WHIP and upside. When Kelly is actually on the top of his game, he's dominant. When Velazquez is on the top of his, he's beholden to the BAbip gods.