Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
Hector has the second-highest reliever fWAR in the second half of the Sox season.
The two worst fWARs? Hembree and Workman.
Frankly I think the only plausible candidates for the last two spots right now are Poyner, Velazquez, and Kelly. I think Poyner is clearly the best of the three. Kelly has a good K rate, but Velazquez has a good BB rate. So I guess it'd depend on situations. Nobody on base and Judge/Hick/Stanton coming up? Kelly would be great. Runners on base and you need a ground ball? Velazquez is better. Not sure which is more likely.
Kelly doesn't even really have a good K rate. It's ok. The league average K rate for a MR this year is 23.2%, Kelly's is 23.8%. His BB rate is 11.0%, MLB MR average is 9.2%. Limited sample size and all, but Poyner is at 25.3% and his BB rate is 3.5%. Velez is at 14.6% and 7.2%.
Going against Poyner is his HR rate compared to the other 2, at 3.5%. Kelly is at 1.4% and Velez is at 1.9%.
What any of that means for Poyner in a 21.1 ip sample size I have no idea but Brasier is at 32.2 and we all love him.
I'm on board for Poyner and have been suggesting he may pitch himself onto the post season roster awhile now. His minor league track record is very intriguing and I think he offers a different look out of the pen (a BB/9 less than 4).
Hector is a slop throwing batting practice pitcher who has pitched almost no high lev. He has absolutely no place on the post-season roster.
I would actually go with Henry Rollins---less versatility, but likely significantly more power at this point in their careers.
The WHIP is a reflection of the whole season right? Joe was lights out for a while this season. NOT any more. He's a gascan. I'll take Hector numbers be damned. Everyone is love with triple digit velocity. The hell with him , he's all over the place with it. Good teams will just wait out the walks.
Kelly has more upside if things are going right though. Granted, that's a big if. Chances are you don't see either even if they make the roster. Kelly's had 4 different stretches that define his season and he's "bad" Joe Kelly right now.
3/29-5/29: 25g, 26.0 ip, 1.73 era, 28k/9bb, .846 WHIP, .190 BAbip
6/1-7/24: 20g, 15.1 ip, 9.98 era, 13k/13bb, 2.15 WHIP, .320 BAbip
7/28-9/4: 19g, 18.2 ip, 1.45 era, 19k/6bb, 1.18 WHIP, .313 BAbip
9/7-Now: 8g, 4.2 ip, 13.50 era, 7k/3bb, 3.21 WHIP, .556 BAbip
Sure but it's been a LONG time since he had them going right. Somehow I don't see someboday waving a magic wand and returning him to where he was in May.
Kelly has a role. There is a time when he might be used to try to get a strikeout. He may not get it, but I think Cora wants him as an option. He also knows that there is a slight chance that he can catch lightning in a bottle. I think he's on the roster.
The Velazquez discussion is funny. He has no chance. Brian Johnson is better, and he has no chance.
The Velazquez discussion is funny. He has no chance. Brian Johnson is better, and he has no chance.
We could also use Kelly for times when we want to walk a batter to set up the double-play...
None of these guys (including Kelly) deserve a spot on the roster at this point. But one of them will there.
I will post again that in 2013--
Brandon Workman had a 1.42 WHIP/4.97 ERA in the regular season, 1.15 WHIP/0.00 ERA in the post-season
Felix Doubront had a 1.43 WHIP/4.32 ERA in the regular season, 0.86 WHIP/1.29 ERA in the post-season
Farrell rode the hot hands and had success in 2013. It's up to Cora to figure out who these guys are in 2018. Kelly has shown that type of upside. Velazquez and Johnson never have.
You have to consider Holt at 2b the way he has been hitting, ahead of Kinsler , the way he has not been hitting.
I’ve been thinking this for a while. Holt should be in the line-up unless and until he cools down and the gap between Kinsler and Holt at 2B isn’t big enough to change that.
Tough call, Trotsky has the longest win streak, you have the second longest, but your most recent win streak is longer than his most recent one.
If they're looking for a strikeout guy, Hembree would make more sense than Kelly, whose K rate is closer to Workman's than Hembree's.
What Kelly is good at, better at than almost any other Sox reliever (Velazquez and Brasier would be the exceptions), is keeping the ball in the park. And he might be good to have around for that reason, especially in the ALDS, where our opponent is going to be one of the two teams with the most HR in the league.
The WHIP is a reflection that Velazquez is working with smoke and mirrors.
Everybody knows Kelly is inconsistent, the point is that he is capable of being very good to dominant for stretches of time, Hector isn't. He's mediocre, perfectly fine for a 6th or 7th starter, but again, not someone who should ever sniff this playoff roster.
Do better than "I'll take Hector, numbers be damned".
Rosters have to be submitted before the series starts. So for the Red Sox, some time on Friday before Game 1 begins.
Why? I don't give a hoot if you don't care for my opinion. How about watching the last tune up for Kelly in the final game today. How does he look? Not very good. So you think he will just magically remember where the strike zone is? A single and a walk with the first 3 batters in a 7-0 game. Then a double play ball from Judge (Fortunately). But imagine him coming in with base runners? Maybe we would be better off not picking that last pitcher and adding an extra bench player. I mean even if he's on the roster are they really going to trust him in a hi-lev spot?
You're talking to someone who had a full blown meltdown because Chris Young started one game early in a season against a RHP after not playing for several games and who openly mocks projections and probabilities based on a demonstrated lack of understanding of both.
Now you need to "do better" because you aren't using one specific number he's latched onto.
You're fine.
That said, I think Hector is the kind of pitcher that helps you to have the kind of regular season they've had, but is a bad bet in a playoff series.
Chris Young started a lot of games for no reason, and I fully understand those systems, I just think they're bullshit (do we need to again reflect on how they all said the Yankees would run away with the division in the 2nd half, or that they've been plain flat-out wrong all season across the board?) Go ahead, look them up. I was right and they were wrong, but hey, it's "science".
You do better too.
WHIP doesn't lie. It's a literal measurement of the amount of baserunners you allow. Hector is really bad at it, and he's also bad at generating strikeouts. Think about that. Lotta baserunners, can't avoid bats. Not exactly a general recipe for success.
I'm no Joe Kelly fan, and I've been very vocal about his inconsistencies, but it doesn't matter how he looked today. He is better than Velazquez, that is a fact, not an opinion. You brought up wanting Velazquez on the postseason roster, it was explained to you why it will never happen, now you "don't give a hoot." Yeah, Kelly shouldn't see a hi-lev spot either...chances are, he probably won't, if he even makes the roster, but I guarantee you Cora isn't making decisions based off low-lev situations in Game 162.
My bench: Swihart, Holt, Nuñez, Pearce, and Lin. I fucking hate Vazquez. And I admit I was very wrong about Brock Holt. I wanted him off of the team in March.
My pitching staff:
Sale
Price
Porcello
Eovaldi
Rodriguez
Kimbrel
Brasier
Barnes
Wright
Johnson
Poyner
My pitching staff:
Sale
Price
Porcello
Eovaldi
Rodriguez
Kimbrel
Brasier
Barnes
Wright
Johnson
Poyner
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Look at the numbers bosox79 posted. Does it look like Joe is trending in the right direction to you? At the half he SHOULD have been on the All Star Team. Now it's a question if he should even make the PS roster. You want to live and die with WHIP, then knock yourself out. I myself will pray this guy doesn't get anywhere near a critical situation in the post season. Does JoKe have great stuff? - yeah. Is he mentally tough - No way. To me Hector is mentally tough with medicre stuff. Right now I'd rather have that. And after having said all that I don't want either one of them coming in with 2 on and no outs in the post season unless we have a healthy lead.
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And if you live an die with WHIP, why don´t you live and die with ERA? Maybe Kelly can´t handle tough situations and Velazquez can and maybe it´s because he pitches better with men on base, because he is pitching out of the stretch.
Relievers tend to pitch out of the stretch whether there are runners on or not, so I'm not sure that's relevant.
Of course, some of them do, but that´s the point, Velazquez was all his life a starting pitcher and began to be used as a reliever last year. I´m no pitching coach nor pitching expert, but maybe some of his mechanics changed. Reality is he has a much better ERA, that what you could expect with that WHIP and to assume this only relates to good or bad luck would be a little bit astonishing. However, neither Velazquez, nor Kelly, Johnson, Poyner, nor Hembree could be used in a tight situation in the postseason, unless you are confident the BABIP gods would help as with Leskanik or Wakefield.
WHIP is a much better stat than ERA to measure relief pitcher effectiveness, especially over a relatively short period of time.
Reliever A could load the bases every inning in his last nine appearances, work out of those jams and have an ERA of 0.00.
Reliever B could strike out every batter, except for giving up three HRs, Over nine appearances and have an ERA of 3.00.
Which guy you want in the playoffs seems obvious to me.
As I said none in a non mop-up situation. I can’t find the stat, but I will like to know what was Kelly’s WHIP after the All Star game.
1.72
Since 6/1, it's over 2, I believe. Baseball reference is acting whacky atm.
edit: I include HBP too, though maybe you aren't supposed to?
The one “eyes” exception I can think of to modify WHIP is if a pitcher routinely requires one batter to “settle in” then shuts everyone else down. Barnes was sort of like that earlier this season, except he’d sometimes require two batters to find the zone or his rhythm.
It is. You still don't understand it. We had a whole thread about it. But not worth dwelling on really, we settled that.
Joe Kelly has allowed 67 baserunners in 38.2 IP since the beginning of June. (that is an amazing second sentence, by the way)
Ultimately I agree with you, Kelly over Hector. All I was saying is you're never the "do better" guy.
A bad relief pitcher who no one wants to see on the mound will be on the sox roster simply because they need 25 bodies.
That pitcher won't be Hector Velazquez, he helped the Sox get where they are but he really has no place on the team in the post season.
I think it pretty much has to be Kelly.
That pitcher won't be Hector Velazquez, he helped the Sox get where they are but he really has no place on the team in the post season.
I think it pretty much has to be Kelly.
JoKe should be on the roster if only for that. And the YouTube videos when they celebrate winning the World Series.
Lots of talk about WHIP and Joe Kelly obscures a fundamental point. WHIP, while a useful indicator of past performance for relievers, does have an element of luck involved. The hits allowed in WHIP are a product of BABIP, which is very noisy and often influenced by nothing other than luck. Joe Kelly's BABIP by month:
April: 0.207
May: 0.172
June: 0.310
July: 0.310
August: 0.382
September: 0.423 (!!)
The numbers above show that while much of the early season Joe Kelly was a bit of a mirage, the September JoKe is also not necessarily reflective nor predictive. Interestingly, his September K/9 of 11.4 was the highest all season.
EDIT: Then again, I could do without his 5.4 BB/9 from September as well, so not all of his Kelly's struggles can be attributed to luck.
April: 0.207
May: 0.172
June: 0.310
July: 0.310
August: 0.382
September: 0.423 (!!)
The numbers above show that while much of the early season Joe Kelly was a bit of a mirage, the September JoKe is also not necessarily reflective nor predictive. Interestingly, his September K/9 of 11.4 was the highest all season.
EDIT: Then again, I could do without his 5.4 BB/9 from September as well, so not all of his Kelly's struggles can be attributed to luck.
Pete AbrahamVerified account @PeteAbe 3m3 minutes ago
Brandon Phillips, Tzu-Wei Lin, Sam Travis and Robby Scott appear to have been sent home. Or at least their lockers are gone.
No surprises here although Lin was getting some traction along fans as the 25th man
Brandon Phillips, Tzu-Wei Lin, Sam Travis and Robby Scott appear to have been sent home. Or at least their lockers are gone.
No surprises here although Lin was getting some traction along fans as the 25th man