Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition

SirPsychoSquints

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And after that game, the next four starters are going to be:

Tu: Price
We: Sale
Fr: Porcello (not announced but likely)
Sa; Eovaldi/EdRo?

If Cora wants to keep everyone on a routine, that means Price would start Sunday (probably going only a couple of innings), Sale pitches a short simulated game on Monday, then Price/Sale pitch Friday/Saturday in the ALDS (with Sale available on regular rest for Game 5 if necessary)
And, presumably, Price available out of the Pen at one point or another.
 

oumbi

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DeadlySplitter

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Nunez was given the whole weekend off to rest his balky knee, and still isn't in the lineup today. it's time to start thinking about that next infielder on the depth chart.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Nunez was given the whole weekend off to rest his balky knee, and still isn't in the lineup today. it's time to start thinking about that next infielder on the depth chart.
The Sox 1st post-season game isn't until Fri Oct 5th. There's still time for Nunez to get healthy enough to make the roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Nunez was given the whole weekend off to rest his balky knee, and still isn't in the lineup today. it's time to start thinking about that next infielder on the depth chart.
It is a strained hamstring, not his knee, that has him out of the lineup right now (though I'm sure the knee isn't 100%). But with 11 days before the roster has to be finalized, he has time to heal and perhaps see some game action.
 

joe dokes

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Nunez was given the whole weekend off to rest his balky knee, and still isn't in the lineup today. it's time to start thinking about that next infielder on the depth chart.
The problem is his hamstring, according to Cora. And if he takes off FIVE more days, he can still play over the weekend.

Edited for mathiness.
 
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David Kaiser

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I apologize that this is not exactly on topic, but it looks like the best place to post a comment on the Red Sox's postseason chances.

I would guess this has come up here. Looking at run differential it turns out that the Red Sox aren't the best team in the AL--the Astros are. The Red Sox as of today project to have won 99 and lost 56; they are 5 games ahead of that projection. The Astros project to be 104-50--they are 7 games behind their projection. The Yankees, meanwhile, are just 1 game ahead of their projection, while Cleveland, like Houston, is 7 games behind theirs (playing a much weaker schedule of course) and Oakland is 3 ahead of theirs.

I predicted when the season started that the Red Sox would have trouble competing with the Yankees. That did not turn out to be the case for three big reasons, I would say.

1. The Yankees had a lot of major injuries--the Red Sox had none. (That lasted very long)
2. The Red Sox beat their projection (so far) by 7 games.
3. J. D. Martinez had by far the greatest year of his life. (More on that when the season is over.)

The Yankees are now pretty healthy. The Red Sox will play either them or Oakland first. Then it's more likely (though far from certain) that they'll play Houston. If they wind up playing the Yankees and Houston, their raw odds of making the World Series, in my judgment,. won't be much more than 25%. Don't get me wrong, I hope it happens, but there's a very long way to go.

David Kaiser
 

joe dokes

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Not unless they’re fucked.

This isn’t 2017. Price is Starter #2. If we see him out if the pen, then something seriously bad has happened.
In a five game series, the #2 starter can pitch in the 5th game on regular rest. If you mean by "seriously bad" that Sale shit the bed, sure. But Sale could also go 6 shutout innings and Price would be available. Of course that raises questions about the next series, etc.
 

geoduck no quahog

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No big dog in this fight -

Everyone who commented is correct:

2013 Red Sox down 1-2: Lackey pitches a scoreless 8th with the Sox ahead 4-2

2017 Dodgers down 3-4: Kershaw pitches 4 scoreless innings with the Astors ahead 5-0 after Darvish can't make it through the 2nd inning in a clinching game

2017 ALDS Astors up 2-1: Verlander pitches 2.2 innings in the clinching Game 4 with the Astors ahead 2-1 (giving up a 2-run homer in the 5th)

Same Game: Sale comes in with the Red Sox behind 1-2 after Porcello only makes it through 3, pitches 5.2 innings but gives up a game tieing home run and the Astors clinch

Same Series: Porcello pitches 1 scoreless inning in the 8th of Game 1 with the Astors creaming the Red Sox 8-2

So...I'll change my tune to, "I dearly hope Price doesn't pitch in relief because the Red Sox will be so far ahead in those games that it won't be necessary..."
 

DeadlySplitter

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given the Astros used their starters heavily as relievers, I expect Cora to do the same. and it might look really weird/questionable to us like Verlander was at the time he gave up the bomb to Benny.
 

EdRalphRomero

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So who should play 1B against a RHP?
  • The incumbent: Mitch Moreland. A .563 OPS in the second half and a .481 (!!!!!) OPS in September thus far? Against righties he has a .749 OPS this year. But not lately.
  • The Brockstar. .263/.328/.370 career against RHP. 2018 .263/.348/.413 against RHP
  • The Remove-the-Platoon-and-Let-the-Big-Dog-Eat. Steve Pearce. Career .251/.326/.417 line against RHP and 2018 line of .261/.352/.468 (and, of course, the advantage that he will hit LHP relievers better).
Seems to me the Red Sox just have themselves a regular first baseman, and his name is Steve Pearce. If Holt is comfortable playing 1B (maybe Nunez as well now that Rafi has reclaimed his 3b position [I will hear no argument on this point]) I'm not sure if Moreland even belongs on the roster. I mean what does he bring? A good glove at 1B and a hope and a prayer that something suddenly changes?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So who should play 1B against a RHP?
  • The incumbent: Mitch Moreland. A .563 OPS in the second half and a .481 (!!!!!) OPS in September thus far? Against righties he has a .749 OPS this year. But not lately.
  • The Brockstar. .263/.328/.370 career against RHP. 2018 .263/.348/.413 against RHP
  • The Remove-the-Platoon-and-Let-the-Big-Dog-Eat. Steve Pearce. Career .251/.326/.417 line against RHP and 2018 line of .261/.352/.468 (and, of course, the advantage that he will hit LHP relievers better).
Seems to me the Red Sox just have themselves a regular first baseman, and his name is Steve Pearce. If Holt is comfortable playing 1B (maybe Nunez as well now that Rafi has reclaimed his 3b position [I will hear no argument on this point]) I'm not sure if Moreland even belongs on the roster. I mean what does he bring? A good glove at 1B and a hope and a prayer that something suddenly changes?
There's zero chance that Moreland, if healthy, is left off the roster. ZERO. I can see Cora going with Pearce full time at 1B in the playoffs, in which case Moreland can be this year's version of Mientkiewicz, but there's no way he's left out entirely.

Who would take his place on the roster? An extra reliever?
 

EdRalphRomero

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There's zero chance that Moreland, if healthy, is left off the roster. ZERO. I can see Cora going with Pearce full time at 1B in the playoffs, in which case Moreland can be this year's version of Mientkiewicz, but there's no way he's left out entirely.

Who would take his place on the roster? An extra reliever?
Probably Lin if you left it up to me. But, I agree there is not a compelling replacement for the 25th spot. Truth is, I don't care too much who has that spot. My main point is, I see no reason for Moreland to start (or really play).
 

williams_482

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Pierce should be the full time 1B come playoffs. Moreland is a mediocre hitter for his career and the rest of the season, and the projections agree. Pearce has the reputation of a platoon player, and has faced more LHP in his career than a full time player normally would, but even his results against RHP have been solid enough to match Mitch:

Career wRC+ vs LHP / RHP
Pearce: 130 / 102
Moreland: 79 / 103

Both of these players have larger than average splits in too few PAs to draw conclusions and Pearce's career numbers are dragged down by about 700 PAs of crap before his 2013 breakout, more than enough to wash out that one point difference against RHP.

The projections love him, forecasting a 119 wRC+ (vs 101 for Moreland), and the defensive stats we have put more or less equal with Moreland defensively. From all the information we have available, Pearce is the superior player.
 

geoduck no quahog

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So, 4 of the 5 starters pitched yesterday. Anyone know what the plan is for keeping them in game shape through next week?

The snip above says Rodriguez may throw again this weekend (obviously he’s slated for the pen). How about the others? Shut down until the ALDS?
 

Al Zarilla

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So, 4 of the 5 starters pitched yesterday. Anyone know what the plan is for keeping them in game shape through next week?

The snip above says Rodriguez may throw again this weekend (obviously he’s slated for the pen). How about the others? Shut down until the ALDS?
Who are the four starters that pitched yesterday?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The weekend rotation is Johnson, Eovaldi, Porcello. My guess is that Price and Sale will throw a simulated game or an extended bullpen on Monday or Tuesday.
 

Al Zarilla

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The weekend rotation is Johnson, Eovaldi, Porcello. My guess is that Price and Sale will throw a simulated game or an extended bullpen on Monday or Tuesday.
If I were Cora, I might hold back Eovaldi, even though he may have already shown everything he has to the Yankees. Come to think of it, some of their hitters might not have seen him, or have seen him in only one game (Judge?). Why not keep him a bit of a mystery? Maybe he’ll only go a couple or three innings as a tuneup.
 

lapa

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The Yankees are now pretty healthy. The Red Sox will play either them or Oakland first. Then it's more likely (though far from certain) that they'll play Houston. If they wind up playing the Yankees and Houston, their raw odds of making the World Series, in my judgment,. won't be much more than 25%. Don't get me wrong, I hope it happens, but there's a very long way to go.

David Kaiser
If you make an assumption that Red Sox Yankees and astros are equal then 25% is exactly what you’d expect for the Sox to beat both in succession. It would be hard to argue that any edge over NYY is offset by a deficit to Houston so that 25% isn’t anything to be worried about. It’s hard to win pennants when there are 3 or 4 exceptionally good teams you’re always looking at 2 coin flips, 3 if you count the World Series.
Sit back, relax, enjoy.
And thank god we’re not orioles fans
 

RedOctober3829

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Final Roster Projection
SP(4)--Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello
RP(7)--Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Workman, Rodriguez, Kelly
Lineup(9)--Betts, Benintendi, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Moreland, Kinsler, Leon, JBJ
Bench(5)--Swihart, Vazquez, Pearce, Nunez, Holt
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'd still rather have Rodriguez starting. So what? He got beat up by the Yankees? Price will be starting. And if the Sox don't face the Yankees then I definitely want Rodriguez over Eovaldi. I don't support this move.
 

Rough Carrigan

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I'd still rather have Rodriguez starting. So what? He got beat up by the Yankees? Price will be starting. And if the Sox don't face the Yankees then I definitely want Rodriguez over Eovaldi. I don't support this move.
Against a team where the best hitters are righties I'd want Eovaldi starting. Against a team where the best hitters are lefties, I'd want Rodriguez.
 

JohntheBaptist

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So probably 2 of Kelly, Workman, Poyner, and Hembree, I would guess. Hembree has been terrible, but Cora seems to like him, so he's probably still in the mix.
Agreed. For me, it's Poyner and Workman. Hembree is a no-way, Poyner keeps the walks limited, and between Kelly and Workman it is Workman all day. Neither of the two of them is working much in high-lev spots but Workman seems much less prone to potential meltdown than Kelly.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Against a team where the best hitters are righties I'd want Eovaldi starting. Against a team where the best hitters are lefties, I'd want Rodriguez.
Which makes Eovaldi an easy call for basically everybody but Cleveland, which might be a tossup, since their two best offensive players are switch-hitters and after that it's Encarnacion (R), Brantley (L), and a bunch of guys who aren't good enough to drive that kind of decision.
 

Harry Hooper

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Check out the interview with Cora on WEEI.com. Among the tidbits was Cora's declaration to use his catchers aggressively, so it sounds like all 3 catchers are making the roster.
 

DeadlySplitter

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starting lineup (assuming RHP on other side):

Betts
Benintendi
Martinez
Bogaerts
Moreland
Devers
Kinsler
JBJ
Leon

BENCH:

Vazquez
Swihart
Nunez
Pearce
Holt

seems pretty set who the 14 will be. If Nunez's knee blows up, I guess have Lin on standby.
 

strek1

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Final Roster Projection
SP(4)--Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello
RP(7)--Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Workman, Rodriguez, Kelly
Lineup(9)--Betts, Benintendi, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Moreland, Kinsler, Leon, JBJ
Bench(5)--Swihart, Vazquez, Pearce, Nunez, Holt
I'd rather see Hector than JoKe but I suppose it will be Joe. At least Hector has some idea of where the ball is going most of the time.
 

normstalls

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Final Roster Projection
SP(4)--Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello
RP(7)--Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Workman, Rodriguez, Kelly
Lineup(9)--Betts, Benintendi, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Moreland, Kinsler, Leon, JBJ
Bench(5)--Swihart, Vazquez, Pearce, Nunez, Holt
I have zero interest in Kelly on the roster. I’d gamble on Poyner over him. Whoever that is.... the 11th pitcher shouldn’t be seeing meaningful time on the mound.
 

patoaflac

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Regarding Hector I guess someone with a lot of baseball knowledge should dissect why he has that WHIP and that ERA. Only luck, or different pitch selection when it really matters? Kelly is a complete disaster right now, he is useless, if he is considered I would prefer one pitcher less and Lin in.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Regarding Hector I guess someone with a lot of baseball knowledge should dissect why he has that WHIP and that ERA. Only luck, or different pitch selection when it really matters? Kelly is a complete disaster right now, he is useless, if he is considered I would prefer one pitcher less and Lin in.
His GB/FB ratio this year is 1.03. The MLB average is 0.79. HIs GO/AO is 1.34. MLB average is 1.06. I'm guessing it's a combination of luck and being a GB pitcher.