Red Sox pitching depth chart

[The Gray Eagle]

I thought it would be interesting to list out the starters and relievers in order of how the team seems to view them. People talk a lot about the #5 starter or the #7 starter, and about who is the 6th inning reliever or whatever, so it's interesting to look at all the pitchers in the organization in terms of where they seem to rank.

Obviously, we are on the outside and will never know the real depth chart. And obviously injuries really shake things up-- who is active, who is on the DL, when are they coming back, etc.
And there would be a much different depth chart in the midseason than in a 1-game playoff. But based on the way things look to me personally right now, this is my guess as to how the pitchers line up as of this moment, knowing that the order will probably shuffle from day to day.

Feel free to post your own take, and to point out the pitchers I forgot about and left off.

Starters:
1. Sale-- the ace.
2. Porcello-- even-year Porcello is damn good. If only there was some way to combine odd-year Josh Beckett with even-year Rick Porcello.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez-- has been quite good so far, can he keep it up for a full season?
4. Price-- over the course of his career, he'd deserve to be #2, but he is really struggling right now. Game-thread posters would have him below the bad Josh Smith on the depth chart, but the team doesn't agree.
5. Pomeranz-- on the DL, so obviously not in the rotation now. I'd think the team would have him in the starting 5 if he was healthy. Really wish they hadn't rushed him back to the majors last time he was hurt.
6. Wright-- another guy on the DL. Who knows when he'll be healthy? He was going really well until he got hurt, but is a knuckleballer, so you know there will be poundings even when he's healthy. If he is healthy again at some point this year.
7. Velazquez-- all he has done in his time here so far is get people out and win games for the minimum salary.
8. Johnson-- hey look, another guy on the DL. He was doing pretty well lately, but will be out for at least 10 games as his cursed luck continues.
9. Beeks-- his MLB start did not go well but he has good numbers in the minors and could get another shot the next time we need a #9 starter.
10. Justin Haley-- he pitched 4 games in the majors this year, and started 13 in AAA. Cuevas, Chandler Shepherd and the better Josh Smith could also get the call if god forbid we need a #10 starter at any point.

Relievers:

1. Kimbrel-- the closer.
2. Barnes-- has been good almost all season, seems pretty underrated around here. Still walks a few too many but 52 Ks in 37 IP with a 2.32 ERA is really damn good.
3. Kelly-- has been the setup man for most of the season, but he has been bad in June and had to leave the game Saturday night with an injury. He'll probably bounce back up to #2 once he gets going good again.
4. Hembree-- 49 Ks in 37.2 IP. 10 more Ks and same number of walks as Kelly in almost the same number of innings.
5. Velazquez-- he has been a swingman most of this season, so I am listing him as both a starter and reliever.
6. Workman-- only 13 IP, but he has done the job so far.
7. Thornburg-- got the call in the 9th with a 4-run lead today. He quickly turned it into a save situation for Kimbrel. He was good with the Brewers years ago and will get his chances. It would be so great if he could be a good reliever again, but I'm skeptical.
8. Brasier-- good numbers in AAA, he's in the majors now. His name reminds me of Dairy Queen's brazier burgers.
9. Cuevas-- decent enough numbers in AAA, he's in the majors now. His name sounds like a brand of cheap tequila.
10. Poyner-- in the majors this year, 10.2 IP, 10 Ks, 1 BB. Is left-handed. And 2-eared, and single-headed.
11. Walden-- in the majors this year, 14.2 IP, 14 Ks, 3 BBs.
12. Ty Buttery-- I bet his delivery is buttery smooth.
13. Robby Scott-- in the majors this year, he got one out and gave up 2 runs. In AAA, 31.1 IP, a startling 48 Ks with 10 walks. Also throws with his left hand. Well his left arm, really, the hand is more for gripping, with the arm doing the throwing.
14. Kyle Martin-- May one day take on the Robbie Ross role of having a name that sounds more like a NASCAR driver than a baseball player.
15. Austin Maddox-- from the playoff roster last year to injuries and 3.2 horrible innings in AAA this year. For his major league career, he has an 0.52 ERA in 17.1 IP with 14 Ks and 2 walks. Got moved to the 60-day DL today.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Who is Josh Smith?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

You know how when someone works on a film and doesn't want their name used in the credits so they use Alan Smithee? With the Sox they use "Josh Smith". Used to be "Luis Basabe".

 

[AB in DC]

Good post. I think relievers 8-11 are basically interchangable -- seems like they're just giving everyone a little major league experience to see how they handle it.

I also think Maddox would be much higher on the list if he weren't injured, but there's no way of knowing.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Who is Josh Smith?

Josh D. Smith, aka Josh THE Smith, who is with Pawtucket.
Josh A. Smith, aka Josh a Smith, who until recently was with Pawtucket for a while, now in Lowell.

 

[Cuzittt]

The Josh Allen Smith move is almost certainly a paper move. He is almost certainly with Pawtucket still.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Who is Josh Smith?

A former NBA player for the Atlanta Hawks?

 

[anaxamandr]

Going to the game tomorrow - should I expect Velazquez or would they likely not use him after he worked in relief Friday and Saturday vs. KC? Could tomorrow be a Beeks start? I heard on tonight's broadcast that Swihart would be catching tomorrow, and we know he has experience catching Beeks...

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Going to the game tomorrow - should I expect Velazquez or would they likely not use him after he worked in relief Friday and Saturday vs. KC? Could tomorrow be a Beeks start? I heard on tonight's broadcast that Swihart would be catching tomorrow, and we know he has experience catching Beeks...

I would think that unless he's needed tonight, Velazquez will probably get the start tomorrow backed by Cuevas.

Beeks would be on schedule to pitch tomorrow, so it's obviously possible he gets the call, but if that was plan A, why not call him up yesterday instead of Cuevas?

 

[Devizier]

No relation to P. Allen Smith, the unfrozen caveman gardner?

 

[Cuzittt]

I would think that unless he's needed tonight, Velazquez will probably get the start tomorrow backed by Cuevas.

Beeks would be on schedule to pitch tomorrow, so it's obviously possible he gets the call, but if that was plan A, why not call him up yesterday instead of Cuevas?

The reason to call Cuevas up on Sunday was because he was the freshest of the starting pitchers (being his day to start). So, if they needed multiple innings that day, he would be the best man for that job. And, if he did pitch multiple innings, then the Red Sox have the option to send him down and pick up another starter (such as Beeks).

However, since Cuevas didn't pitch yesterday and seems unlikely to pitch tonight, there is no real reason to make a move to bring up Beeks. Beeks isn't that much better of a pitcher to Cuevas (or Velazquez who is likely to get the starting nod).

 

[RedOctober3829]

Going to the game tomorrow - should I expect Velazquez or would they likely not use him after he worked in relief Friday and Saturday vs. KC? Could tomorrow be a Beeks start? I heard on tonight's broadcast that Swihart would be catching tomorrow, and we know he has experience catching Beeks...

Pete Abraham tweets out the pitching matchups before every series and he listed Velasquez as the starter for tomorrow.

 

[anaxamandr]

Pete Abraham tweets out the pitching matchups before every series and he listed Velasquez as the starter for tomorrow.

Thanks! All the pitching probables I was able to find just said TBD.

 

[Cuzittt]

Thanks! All the pitching probables I was able to find just said TBD.

The Red Sox have not (had not) made an official announcement of who will be starting tomorrow as the available pool of starters with the Red Sox (specifically Velazquez and Cuevas) may have been needed to be utilized out of the bullpen over the last two games.

RedSox.com (or MLB.com which runs the team sites) still has it as TBD for the Red Sox.

 

[patoaflac]

ESPN has a duel of “bad hombres”, Gallardo vs Velazquez.

 

[Plympton91]

Good discussion.

I will be very interested to see who comes out on top if they have to make a decision on Pomeranz vs Wright this year. Wright was dominant in all but one outing. Pomeranz has been awful all season. By any objective measure, Wright should get that call.

It also seems to me like they prefer Johnson to Velazquez in the starting role. This may be more of a comparative advantage situation though. Johnson hasn’t been good in relief, whereas Velazquez has. So given how close they appear on stuff, perhaps they weee just not messing with Velazquez’s success. Now, they have less of a choice tomorrow night. It will be interesting to see how V does.

Up until his hiccups with longballs in the past few outings (triple tonight, homer late last week), I thought Workman was establishing himself as the #4 bullpen guy. But, those recent hard hits may delay that just a bit.

I was really surprised they went to Thornburg with just a 4 run lead on Sunday. He still appears to me to have nothing. Brazier’s stuff tonight was crisper than either of Thornburg’s outings.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

ESPN has a duel of “bad hombres”, Gallardo vs Velazquez.

Yup, Cora said in the post-game interview that it would be Velazquez. An interesting thing to note in terms of the logistics:

The Sox had bumped E-Rod up 1 day and pushed the Johnson/Pomeranz/Wright spot back 1 day. This means that the #5 spot in the rotation will occur on 7/15, the last day before the All-Star break, instead of 7/14. Conveniently, 7/15 is the day that Johnson is eligible to return from the DL (was placed on 10-day DL, retroactive to 7/5...although I don't understand the relevance of 7/5 since he last pitched on 7/3). Having the #5 spot on the day before the break also gives the Sox the ability to empty out the pen as needed, with a the 4 days off afterwards.

 

[Cuzittt]

7/5 is significant because you can only back date the DL trip 3 days. Johnson was placed on the DL on 7/8.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Red Sox have not (had not) made an official announcement of who will be starting tomorrow as the available pool of starters with the Red Sox (specifically Velazquez and Cuevas) may have been needed to be utilized out of the bullpen over the last two games.

RedSox.com (or MLB.com which runs the team sites) still has it as TBD for the Red Sox.

Redsox.com now has Velazquez as tonight's starter.

 

[mwonow]

Good discussion.

I will be very interested to see who comes out on top if they have to make a decision on Pomeranz vs Wright this year. Wright was dominant in all but one outing. Pomeranz has been awful all season. By any objective measure, Wright should get that call.

It also seems to me like they prefer Johnson to Velazquez in the starting role. This may be more of a comparative advantage situation though. Johnson hasn’t been good in relief, whereas Velazquez has. So given how close they appear on stuff, perhaps they weee just not messing with Velazquez’s success. Now, they have less of a choice tomorrow night. It will be interesting to see how V does.

Up until his hiccups with longballs in the past few outings (triple tonight, homer late last week), I thought Workman was establishing himself as the #4 bullpen guy. But, those recent hard hits may delay that just a bit.

I was really surprised they went to Thornburg with just a 4 run lead on Sunday. He still appears to me to have nothing. Brazier’s stuff tonight was crisper than either of Thornburg’s outings.

This squares with what I've been seeing as well - I'd far prefer Wright to Pom in a September game, and probably, Vaz over Johnson for either a start or a relief appearance.

I think it's fair to run Thornburg out in a 4 run game, though. At some point, he makes the team better or he doesn't. That seemed like a reasonable situation to get a data point (though it obviously fell on the wrong side of the line, it didn't end up costing anything, orther than a bit more mileage on Kimbrel).

 

[phenweigh]

With Pom, Wright, and Rodriguez on the DL, it seems like it's a good time to revisit this thread. If Pom is still not ready to return after the break, who will the Sox put in the rotation? The depth chart answer seems to be Velazquez, but he's been in the pen so long the Sox may want to leave him there at this point. My guess is that we'll see Beeks again, with Hector ready to come in for a couple innings around the fifth inning.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'd expect Beeks or Cuevas

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not sure how much of an option he was to begin with, but Chandler Shepherd has been roughed up his last 3 starts. 6.17 era, 11.2 ip, 20h, 12r/8er, 3bb/11k. Hitters slashing .345/.397/.552.

 

[oumbi]

Starting pitching update, of sorts. Wright’s knee is still cranky. Sigh.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/07/steven_wright_injury_boston_re_9.html

 

[Cuzittt]

Not sure how much of an option he was to begin with, but Chandler Shepherd has been roughed up his last 3 starts. 6.17 era, 11.2 ip, 20h, 12r/8er, 3bb/11k. Hitters slashing .345/.397/.552.

At best, Fourth in line behind Beeks, Cuevas, and Justin Haley (of the Pawtucket crew). So... A lot more would need to go wrong for Shepherd to get the call.

 

[luckysox]

Maybe they can stretch Velazquez out a bit more and find a way to swap him and Beeks. Get Hector back in the starter’s mindset and prep, and transition Beeks to a 1-3 inning guy, where maybe his stuff plays up a little, one time through the order and just a tad harder.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

We really need Pomeranz to get his stuff together and pitch like he did in '17. Not only that, but HE needs to pitch like he did in '17. He hits Free Agency after this season and if he can't put together 2.5 months of high quality pitching ( and really, as a starter!) , it'll be the difference between a possible 3 year $45 or a 1 year $2 million contract. Sox won't be offering him a QO for certain. Hopefully he's not injured and that pay is a giant carrot dipped in the most awesome smoked brisket.
I'm just shuffling my expectations for EdRod to not get back until mid September and then hope he can just contribute out of the bullpen a la David Price last season

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

We do need him to produce, but he's getting at least $6 million next year even if he doesn't take the mound in Boston again

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

We do need him to produce, but he's getting at least $6 million next year even if he doesn't take the mound in Boston again

I would bet against that. If he doesn’t pitch again this season, it would indicate an injury.... or at best complete and utter ineffectiveness.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I would bet against that. If he doesn’t pitch again this season, it would indicate an injury.... or at best complete and utter ineffectiveness.

and some team would still throw him at least 1/6.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

So, it looks like: Price, Johnson, Sale, Porcello, Pom.

Could be that way for a while, unless Pom is hurt, and until Wright is available if he ever is. Or unless we get a starter on the market.

I wonder if they'll let Johnson go longer than the 2 times through that Cora has been letting him go. Automatic penciling in of 5 innings of bullpen every 5 days doesn't really seem sustainable for two months.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So, it looks like: Price, Johnson, Sale, Porcello, Pom.

Could be that way for a while, unless Pom is hurt, and until Wright is available if he ever is. Or unless we get a starter on the market.

I wonder if they'll let Johnson go longer than the 2 times through that Cora has been letting him go. Automatic penciling in of 5 innings of bullpen every 5 days doesn't really seem sustainable for two months.

I imagine they'll let Johnson go longer as his stamina builds up. I don't think his exits have been predicated on where he was in the opposing batting order so much as pitch counts. In his three starts since joining the rotation, he's thrown 61, 77, and 84 pitches (preceded by a 3 inning relief effort in which he threw 43 pitches). In his first start of the year, back in March when he was fairly stretched out, he threw 82 pitches and faced 25 batters over 6 innings. I imagine that will be more the floor going forward (pitch-count wise).

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

He threw 4 2/3 last time so it's not 5 innings for the bullpen

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I don't think his exits have been predicated on where he was in the opposing batting order so much as pitch counts.

I actually think Cora pulled him in both of his last two starts because he didn't like the matchup -- both times it was men on base with righty power hitters getting their third look at him (one of whom had crushed a ball). I agree that because Johnson was already around where I think Cora wanted him in terms of pitch counts it was an easy-ish decision each time, even though both cost Johnson a win opportunity by one out. But I think Johnson still had pitches left, it was just the situation was too high leverage for a guy who was approaching his pitch counts.

Ultimately, though, I'm sure you're right that he's going to get his chances now to fight through those situations. Hopefully, he's up to the task. Our bullpen management for the next two months may well depend on Johnson successfully fighting through the line up three times and getting out of jams later than the fourth inning without a net.

 

[grimshaw]

Ya I agree with DDB. I don't think him pitching into the 6th is going to be a regular occurrence. Or if he does, I don't imagine it would be without additional damage.

If he gets through 5 keeping the team in the game, I'm happy whether it's 70 or 100 pitches.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Brian Johnson walked 4 batter in 4.2 ip two games ago but outside of that, he has been avoiding the free pass this year. When he was doing well in the minors, it was largely because he was limiting the walks. He has only given up 11 bb in his last 41.1 ip, and that includes the 4bb in 4.2 ip. He's also been pretty good over his last 15 outings: 35.1 ip, 36hits, 10bb/22. .257/.307/.336, .309 BAbip.

He's had healthy enough pitch counts to go deeper in games and I'm guessing that will eventually happen if he stays in the rotation for another 5 starts or so.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

According to Rob Bradford and many others on Twitter, Pomeranz will stick in the rotation with Johnson going to the bullpen after he makes his start on Sunday. This seems outright baffling to me as even if Pomeranz straightens himself out to his career numbers, that would not be better than what Johnson has done this year. And a return to career form would require a huge performance improvement from Pomeranz.

Brian Johnson 2018:
ERA+ 116
ERA 3.80
WHIP: 1.45

Drew Pomeranz Career (2018 in parenthesis)
ERA+ 112 (64)
ERA 3.86 (6.91)
WHIP 1.33 (1.82)

I mean, to make this move you have to believe that Johnson is due for big regression right? But why?