Red Sox pitching carousel thread (our pitching is HISTORICALLY bad)

greek_gawd_of_walks

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I'd entertain bringing Steven Wright in if not for the baggage. It really can't be worse at this point (save for the domestic abuse, that's where it can be worse).

Edit: Annnd the TJ.
 
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nvalvo

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One thing that's really striking to me is how downright good Martín Perez has been.

He's had four starts:

5 IP, 4 ER on 6 H, 2 SO/2 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H, 5 SO/4 BB
5.0 IP, 0 ER on 4 H, 4 SO/3 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 3 H, 5 SO/2 BB

He hasn't finished six innings yet, and he's walking too many guys. But he's finished 5 every time out, and he's extremely stingy with base hits. That's a 3.38 ERA, about half a run below his 3.86 FIP.

Now, his results have historically tracked his HR rate, and he's only given up one long ball in almost 22 innings. It may be that this is unsustainable given that he basically pairs Matt Barnes' walk rate with half of Matt Barnes' strikeout rate. But the theory behind the signing was that Perez was good at missing the barrel and inducing soft contact, and, well, among pitchers with 50 or more batted balls, he is second in lowest exit velocity, third in fewest balls hit 95 MPH or faster, tenth lowest in barrels/PA. In those statistics, he's right there with guys like Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, Zack Wheeler, Dustin May — you know, good pitchers.

Most of those guys also strike out more hitters, so they're going to have less variance right there, but it's clear what Bloom was trying to do with this signing, and, well, Perez has produced the desired results. If he were our fourth starter instead of our second as was planned, we'd be over the moon about what a genius Chaim Bloom was.

We have a very reasonable club option for next season at $6.25m; I imagine that will get picked up.
 

BaseballJones

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One thing that's really striking to me is how downright good Martín Perez has been.

He's had four starts:

5 IP, 4 ER on 6 H, 2 SO/2 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H, 5 SO/4 BB
5.0 IP, 0 ER on 4 H, 4 SO/3 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 3 H, 5 SO/2 BB

He hasn't finished six innings yet, and he's walking too many guys. But he's finished 5 every time out, and he's extremely stingy with base hits. That's a 3.38 ERA, about half a run below his 3.86 FIP.

Now, his results have historically tracked his HR rate, and he's only given up one long ball in almost 22 innings. It may be that this is unsustainable given that he basically pairs Matt Barnes' walk rate with half of Matt Barnes' strikeout rate. But the theory behind the signing was that Perez was good at missing the barrel and inducing soft contact, and, well, among pitchers with 50 or more batted balls, he is second in lowest exit velocity, third in fewest balls hit 95 MPH or faster, tenth lowest in barrels/PA. In those statistics, he's right there with guys like Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, Zack Wheeler, Dustin May — you know, good pitchers.

Most of those guys also strike out more hitters, so they're going to have less variance right there, but it's clear what Bloom was trying to do with this signing, and, well, Perez has produced the desired results. If he were our fourth starter instead of our second as was planned, we'd be over the moon about what a genius Chaim Bloom was.

We have a very reasonable club option for next season at $6.25m; I imagine that will get picked up.
For sure Perez has been pretty decent. I know it's a different world, but it wasn't THAT long ago (uh, maybe it was) that we were agonizing over Dice-K's inability to get through six innings. Perez gets through five giving up only 2 runs and we're excited about it. How times have changed.
 

Rovin Romine

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For sure Perez has been pretty decent. I know it's a different world, but it wasn't THAT long ago (uh, maybe it was) that we were agonizing over Dice-K's inability to get through six innings. Perez gets through five giving up only 2 runs and we're excited about it. How times have changed.
Something of a tangental comment on my part, but Dice-K's tenure with the Sox is definitely subject to recency bias. His first two years were excellent, then an injury year, then a journeyman year (game logs - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2010 ), then two injury years, the last of which (2012) was way worse than what Perez has given us. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2012 ), so it's a bit apples and oranges.

The GF, a casual Cubs fan, asked how the Sox were doing this year; I explained they lost their #1 and #2, and had traded their #3 but essentially replaced him, and picked up a decent #4. Took her a half beat and she said. . ."Well, that sounds bad, but they can't be worse than the Marlins, can they?"

So I made my sad face.
 

BaseballJones

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Something of a tangental comment on my part, but Dice-K's tenure with the Sox is definitely subject to recency bias. His first two years were excellent, then an injury year, then a journeyman year (game logs - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2010 ), then two injury years, the last of which (2012) was way worse than what Perez has given us. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2012 ), so it's a bit apples and oranges.

The GF, a casual Cubs fan, asked how the Sox were doing this year; I explained they lost their #1 and #2, and had traded their #3 but essentially replaced him, and picked up a decent #4. Took her a half beat and she said. . ."Well, that sounds bad, but they can't be worse than the Marlins, can they?"

So I made my sad face.
Haha that story is good.

On Dice-K....even in his two good years (2007, 2008)...

2007: 15-12, 4.40 era, 4.23 fip, 108 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.8 k/9, 6 1/3 innings per start
2008: 18-3, 2.90 era, 4.03 fip, 160 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.3 k/9, 5 2/3 innings per start

So his 2007 campaign was a little above average (definitely not "excellent"), and he was a little over 6.1 ip per start. His 2008 season was obviously great from an era and W-L perspective, but his whip was still terrible and he didn't even average six innings a start.

Which is my point. It was maddening watching Dice-K navigate through 5+ innings, rarely getting through six. We thought, ok, the results end up being fine in that he doesn't allow many runs over those 5+ innings, but man can he EVER get deep into a game?

Now with Perez it's like...woohoo he got through five!!!

Just saying that times and expectations have changed is all.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Haha that story is good.

On Dice-K....even in his two good years (2007, 2008)...

2007: 15-12, 4.40 era, 4.23 fip, 108 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.8 k/9, 6 1/3 innings per start
2008: 18-3, 2.90 era, 4.03 fip, 160 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.3 k/9, 5 2/3 innings per start

So his 2007 campaign was a little above average (definitely not "excellent"), and he was a little over 6.1 ip per start. His 2008 season was obviously great from an era and W-L perspective, but his whip was still terrible and he didn't even average six innings a start.

Which is my point. It was maddening watching Dice-K navigate through 5+ innings, rarely getting through six. We thought, ok, the results end up being fine in that he doesn't allow many runs over those 5+ innings, but man can he EVER get deep into a game?

Now with Perez it's like...woohoo he got through five!!!

Just saying that times and expectations have changed is all.
Isn't part of it the fact that pitchers are still ramping up? Matsuzaka was barely getting through 6 with 100-110+ pitches. Perez's season high pitch count is the 94 in his most recent start. If he were given 110 pitches, odds are he'd be pitching into the 7th and this wouldn't be a talking point at all.
 

BaseballJones

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Isn't part of it the fact that pitchers are still ramping up? Matsuzaka was barely getting through 6 with 100-110+ pitches. Perez's season high pitch count is the 94 in his most recent start. If he were given 110 pitches, odds are he'd be pitching into the 7th and this wouldn't be a talking point at all.
Perez' ip per game since 2016:

2016: 6.0
2017: 5.8
2018: 3.9
2019: 5.2
2020: 5.3
TOT: 5.3

So he's right where he normally is, ramp-up or not. Again, my point is simply that we're excited he's getting through five innings with minor damage. Not that long ago we were tortured by Dice-K that he couldn't get through six innings, even though he also usually did so with minor damage. The game, and expectations for starting pitchers, has changed. That's my point.
 

Rovin Romine

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Just saying that times and expectations have changed is all.
Oh, I wasn't disputing that. And I should have looked more carefully at DK's 2007 numbers. I went back and took a closer look at them, because I didn't remember a pedestrian 2007 from him. He was a bit up and down, throughout the year, but his numbers definitely caved in September. His 2007 post season was very much the 5 inning start 2 run variety.
 

Marciano490

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Perez' ip per game since 2016:

2016: 6.0
2017: 5.8
2018: 3.9
2019: 5.2
2020: 5.3
TOT: 5.3

So he's right where he normally is, ramp-up or not. Again, my point is simply that we're excited he's getting through five innings with minor damage. Not that long ago we were tortured by Dice-K that he couldn't get through six innings, even though he also usually did so with minor damage. The game, and expectations for starting pitchers, has changed. That's my point.
Well, expectations going in were a bit different. Dice-K had a ton of hype and was the subject of a big bidding war. Perez was a scrap heap pick up nobody expected much from.
 

BaseballJones

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Well, expectations going in were a bit different. Dice-K had a ton of hype and was the subject of a big bidding war. Perez was a scrap heap pick up nobody expected much from.
Yep. But expectations for starting pitchers *on the whole* are different than they used to be too.
 

sean1562

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So what does next year's pitching rotation and bullpen look like? Sale/Eovaldi/ERod/Perez and a FA signing? Maybe someone like Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray?

We do seem to be getting good looks at some of the bullpen guys. Brasier seems done, but Valdez and Osich seem like real middle relief guys. Should we go out and try and sign known commodity for the pen or just let Bloom pick up some guys he thinks can be valuable pieces?
 

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So what does next year's pitching rotation and bullpen look like? Sale/Eovaldi/ERod/Perez and a FA signing? Maybe someone like Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray?

We do seem to be getting good looks at some of the bullpen guys. Brasier seems done, but Valdez and Osich seem like real middle relief guys. Should we go out and try and sign known commodity for the pen or just let Bloom pick up some guys he thinks can be valuable pieces?
I wouldn’t be surprised if #5 was an opener.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Speier wrote about cases like Sale's and said something like pitching in May and hopefully close to normal in July.
 

Max Power

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There's some hope he can get back in time for Opening Day 2021 like Adam Wainwright did. Some other pitchers managed to make it back in just 12 months. But if he has one of the slower recoveries, it's possible he won't be ready until October 2021, which will be irrelevant for the Red Sox if he's gone for the season preceding it.

I also just learned Tommy John made his return on the day I was born. It was thankfully not an omen of future elbow problems.
 

Danny_Darwin

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So what does next year's pitching rotation and bullpen look like? Sale/Eovaldi/ERod/Perez and a FA signing? Maybe someone like Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray?

We do seem to be getting good looks at some of the bullpen guys. Brasier seems done, but Valdez and Osich seem like real middle relief guys. Should we go out and try and sign known commodity for the pen or just let Bloom pick up some guys he thinks can be valuable pieces?
I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.
 

WrenHorn

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I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion here that Eduardo Rodriguez is in the team's long-term plans here. Presuming his service time still moves this year despite not playing, he'd be a FA after 2021. He was definitely a solid pitcher in 2019 (he was even better in 2018), but he's started 24+ games once in his major league career. He actually posted a career worst BA against and WHIP in 2019 despite the W total. I think Rodriguez is a solid #3 SP in baseball, but we really don't know how his health will come back and we don't have enough time to really evaluate him in 2020 before we have to make a decision. If the team is lousy again, and he's a FA to be [because there's no way we're extending him] then I have to imagine he's on the block July 31st.

I really don't think the Red Sox should be super worried about trying to keep E-Rod, who's either going to be super expensive at and over age 30 or Eovaldi, who should be traded if he can be.

The mistake the Red Sox need to not make a second time is not having any other pitchers with major league experience to fill. I'm not saying we need to go out and give Jordan Lyles 2 years and 16M, but short of signing McHugh after Sale went down and claiming Godley off waivers, I'd like to see them be a little bit more proactive in that space. I'd like to see, for instance, if the Sox could grab Jose Quintana on a similar deal to the one Perez signed this offseason. He's durable, gets a ton of grounders and isn't too old, but hasn't pitched much this year and seems to be souring in the eyes of the Cubs.
 

soxhop411

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It took one fucking day to set the record!
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1294804188623441922
The 2020 Red Sox are the first team in franchise history to allow 8+ runs in 6 straight games. They're the 25th team ever to do so. The record is 7 straight games of 8+ runs allowed (done 5x, most recently in 2000 by the Orioles and Mariners).



 

BaseballJones

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This pitching is just godawful in every way. There are like 2-3 decent - not good but decent - major league caliber pitchers on the entire roster. Not counting Sale and ERod of course.
 

dynomite

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I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.
It’s a tough one. For 2021 with ERod back and Sale likely available ~June, the rotation will suddenly look competent again, plus there’s the luxury tax reset and so much salary coming off the books. Let’s say they give Trevor Bauer $30M/1 year, sign a few solid RPs like Jeffress or Pedro Baez, and do basically nothing else, a Sale/Bauer/ERod/Eovaldi/Perez rotation with a Verudgo/Devers/Xander/JDM heart of the order feels like a possible contender, right?


It took one fucking day to set the record!
Odd to see the 2000 Mariners as one of the teams we tied. They made the ALCS that year, their first without Griffey (and famously went on to win 116 the next year without ARod).
 
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dynomite

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I was about to say what the heck, but I remembered Bauer has sworn to only take 1 year contracts.

He's a wild one. Pass.
I know, he’s the dude who cut his finger in the World Series because he was playing around with a drone and is generally a wackadoodle.

Still, he’s only 29 and has been pitching like one of the 10 best starters in baseball for the Reds — 15 K/9 (!), 2 BB/9, 2.10 xFIP. Dude was a 6 WAR player with the Indians in 2018. How often are guys like that available? And how often could you get a potential Cy Young winner without trading anyone or having to lock him into big money in his late 30s?

To my mind, there’s effectively no downside. Unless Bloom wants to go full Orioles and tear down everything to the studs to be bad for years — which, in this market, seems deeply unwise — signing Bauer would be an easy path to giving the Xander/Devers/JDM/Sale/ERod core a shot at contention. Plus, if in July it’s not working out, no biggie! He’s a fantastic trade chip who would bring back something.
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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signing Bauer would be an easy path to giving the Xander/Devers/JDM/Sale/ERod core a shot at contention.
[/QUOTE]

Never mind contending, at this point I'd be happy with respectability.
 

Earthbound64

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It took one fucking day to set the record!
I mean, when you're tied with a daily record, that would stand to reason, that the next day it would either be broken or not.

"We set the record!" would be one thing.
"It took one fucking day to set the record!," however, doesn't make sense, as the "one fucking day" is nonsensical in the context.
 
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rymflaherty

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Just heard quite the stat from Russillo on Simmons’ podcast.

The staff this season has given up more earned runs in 19 games than Pedro gave up in his 78 starts over 3 years (99-01’).
looking at Pedro’s innings, that’s the equivalent of around 61 9 inning games.

Or, I guess that can be a happy stat depending on how you want to frame it and if you can allow yourself to just focus on, and reminisce over, those 3 years from Martinez.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah...

Pedro (1999-2001): 78 g, 547.0 ip, 2.01 era, 122 er, 0.85 whip
Boston (2020): 22 g, 191.0 ip, 6.03 era, 128 er, 1.65 whip

LOL
 

chawson

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Now that he's fixed, Kevin Gausman was a guy I could see Bloom trading for and signing to a modest extension or something, but he's been playing himself out of our range and will likely be shipped to a contender. Tyler Mahle or Lucas Sims are good targets too, if we have anything to trade the GFIN Reds. I could also see buying low on Matt Boyd, who looks mechanically broken rather than done.

If we reset the luxury tax, I think Bloom's best bet is buying a prospect. If the Sox don't want to extend EdRod, maybe we offer him to the Cardinals for a partially subsidized Carlos Martinez, Dexter Fowler and Matthew Liberatore, a LHP prospect that Bloom's familiar with from his Tampa days. Martinez is probably broken, but maybe he can get on the right track in a new environment before his club option.

My guess on 2021's rotation is (Sale)/Eovaldi/Carlos Martinez/Boyd/DeSclafani (another guy who looks broken, not done)/Perez, with Liberatore hopefully a September callup. It's far fetched but Bloom is going to have to get weird with trades. I don't think Boston is going to be an attractive place for pitchers to sign after this season.
 

DeadlySplitter

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ERod has tricky value right now until his status with myocarditis is cleared up. don't see him going anywhere, but also his arbitration value in his final season is likely to not go up at all.
 

Rough Carrigan

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It's crazy how 88 mph is way below average MLB velocity. You know how hard 88 mph is? It's really freaking fast. It's on you as a hitter like *that*. Of course, when you're used to 95, 88 is nothing. But for us mere mortals, an 88 mph fastball is like lightning.

It's just funny how good these guys really are. Even the "bad" players at this level are just unbelievably good at baseball.
I don't know if it was different radar guns or just that they somehow aimed them differently or what, but somewhere in the mid to late 2000's, didn't they go from reading the speed of the pitch a fair distance from the pitcher to reading it right as the ball left his hand.

And, instantly, every pitcher threw 4-5 mph faster than he used to. That 88 mph is a 1999 84 mph. 93 mph in 2000 is the same as 97 mph today.

My point is only that for all of us who spent more of our lives accustomed to the spectrum of pitches about 4 mph slower, you have to constantly remind yourself about the change.
 

scottyno

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Does kind of feel like they just decided to punt the season, since it is so short and strange anyway, and give anyone who may have even a remote shot at being a 5/6 guy in the rotation next year a chance. Understandable approach with the way COVID has transformed this year but I am definitely not watching any of the games.
What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)
 

sean1562

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What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)
I truly dont mind them doing that this season. We are already halfway through and won't need to sit through this much longer. I won't watch the games because they are objectively terrible. Maybe they would have tried harder to get more ML pitching roster talent if they had a whole season but with this strange shortened year what is the point? We all just have to grin and bear it until the lux tax resets and then Bloom has the opportunity to remake the pitching staff to his liking.
 

nvalvo

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ERod has tricky value right now until his status with myocarditis is cleared up. don't see him going anywhere, but also his arbitration value in his final season is likely to not go up at all.
This offseason might be a good time to hammer out an extension, if they're confident he's healthy.

What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)
There are some better options, and I think we'll see some of them pretty soon. Darwinzon Hernandez is stretching out with an Roenicke being cagey about putting him in the rotation. I'd expect to see Houck get some starts in September, unless he still really can't get lefties out. Mata, whom I think is a better prospect than either, we probably don't see until next season.

But any of those three guys could be a 4/5 starter next year.
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1295910522966212608

Fat chance we even pitch close to that number.

Oooo. Another pitching record!
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1295919307847798785
The Red Sox have allowed 86 runs over their last 9 games -- the most they've given up over any 9-game stretch in their 120-season history.
In order for the Red Sox to avoid the worst ERA in franchise history, they'd have to have roughly a 4.20 ERA over the remainder of the season.
 
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soxhop411

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I’ll go ahead and take a guess that they won’t set a team record for most runs allowed in a season. The rate stats are all in play, though.
At this point I wouldn’t put it past this rotation to get close enough to the record.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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At this point I wouldn’t put it past this rotation to get close enough to the record.
Two things wrong with this statement:

1) "Rotation" implies there are five guys who regularly make starts. Sox are already up to eleven.
2) It ignores the very real contribution of our bullpen to our record breaking pace.
 

BaseballJones

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Just to actually see the numbers, here's every pitcher that's thrown at least 8 innings so far this season, and their respective ERAs.

Eovaldi - 27.1 ip, 5.93 era
Perez - 24.1 ip, 4.07 era
Weber - 20.1 ip, 5.75 era
Godley - 18.1 ip, 6.87 era
Valdez - 14.1 ip, 1.26 era
Brewer - 14.0 ip, 4.50 era
Brice - 13.1 ip, 6.75 era
Osich - 11.0 ip, 4.09 era
Hembree - 9.2 ip, 5.59 era
Barnes - 9.2 ip, 5.59 era
Walden - 9.0 ip, 12.00 era
Brasier - 8.0 ip, 7.88 era

So 12 pitchers with at least 8 innings of work so far this year. Of these 12...

- Only *one* has an era below 4.00
- Only *three* have an era below 4.50
- Only *four* have an era below 5.59
- Four have an era of 6.75 or greater

It's just the biggest pile of suck I've ever seen from a pitching staff.