Red Sox Offseason discussion

cantor44

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E-Rod’s career numbers to date are very similar to Zach Wheelers two years ago, and he got 5/118. He’s only 28. He doesn’t need a pillow contract, he should be taking the most guaranteed money he can get.

Of course, with the CBA expiring, anything can happen but if E-Rod can’t do better than this QO and JD can’t beat his option, than it will be a crazy buyers market and hopefully the Sox take advantage.
I know the peripherals look better for ERod than the conventional stats this year. But Wheeler, aside from one season interrupted by injury, has never had an ERA over 4, has two seasons under 3, and has a career ERA of 3.51. ERod has been over 4 for 3 of his 6 seasons, and has a career 4.16 ERA. His worst full season was this year. I'm not sure Wheeler is a good comp. Wheeler's 162 game WAR average is 4.2, Erod's 3.4. If Erod can put in a full season like his second half, he likely would garner a bigger multiyear deal.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Wheeler has been great with Philly, but when he signed the deal he was a 28 year old with a 44-38 record, 3.77 FIP, 100 ERA+, 2.9 bb, 8.9 k/9. Eduardo is 28 with a 64-39 record, 3.83 FIP, 110 ERA+, 3.1 bb, 9.4 k/9.

There aren’t a lot of FA SP that are under 30, and he’s one of the best under 30 starters ins the league to begin with. I get that he’s been frustrating, but there’s going to be a significant market for him and taking a one year deal would be insanely risky.
 

chrisfont9

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he will be opting out of 4/80, I think 6/150 seems in the range of what he’d be looking for, at the minimum.
I just looked over the FA list and he wouldn't face much competition at SS. In fact, he might be the premier available position player for the entire market, assuming the Yankees lock up Judge. So yeah, someone will probably give him those extra years. Not the Sox I don't think.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I just looked over the FA list and he wouldn't face much competition at SS. In fact, he might be the premier available position player for the entire market, assuming the Yankees lock up Judge. So yeah, someone will probably give him those extra years. Not the Sox I don't think.
The SS free-agent Class of 22 may not be as stacked as this year’s, but it could include Trea Turner (arguably better than Xander), Dansby Swanson (not great, but useful and therefore appealing to teams looking to get someone cheaply), and possibly Tim Anderson (legitimately a star, but the White Sox will probably pick up his option).
 

chrisfont9

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Yeah, no. How, for instance, would he warm up to pitch before being called upon? If he wants to throw a slop inning in a blowout, I suppose that could help. But coming into game action straight from the outfield ... no chance
I mean, it sounds like he had some serious pedigree as a pitcher, but you don't develop major league-level command in a couple months, do you? Thousands of pitchers with big arms spend years and years trying and don't make it.
 

chrisfont9

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The closer market could be interesting for the Sox. Grabbing a ninth inning guy and reslotting the rest sounds great, in theory. IMO Raisel Iglesias looks like the cream of the crop. Kirby Yates might be a post-TJ bounce-back guy on a short deal, although he was pretty great in 2019 so he probably will draw plenty of interest. The rest of the field just seem like guys who won't warrant the investment, given how top relievers percolate up through the system.
 

chawson

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I couldn't possibly be more on board with a Chris Taylor signing. Give him the Zobrist deal -- 4/60. Promise him he gets first crack at being the starting 2B, with the potential to move to LF when either a) there's a tough lefty and you want Verdugo out of the lineup or b) Renfroe is slumping and you want to move Verdugo to RF. He's a perfect fit for the team, especially if they manage to swap out Martinez for Schwarber and the lineup becomes very LH-heavy (especially when Casas arrives).

The other thing is that I want them to acquire two starters. I don't think it's a good idea to count on Whitlock going from 70 innings post-TJ to 170. So make him the relief ace and be ready to stretch him out mid-season if (when) a starter goes down. Houck I think is a reliever long-term anyway, and he could be a seriously great one, good enough that we don't need to spend up on a Kenley Jansen or Raisel Iglesias.

Which two starters? Easy answer would be Gausman (say 5/110) and ERod (the Eovaldi deal: 4/68). But if some combination of Duran, Downs, and lesser pieces could pry free one of the Marlins' starters or another cost-controlled young gun, we could pocket the Gausman money to use on extending Devers and splurging on another closer.

Like, look at this:

Hernandez CF
Schwarber DH
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Taylor 2B
Verdugo LF
Renfroe RF
Vazquez C
Dalbec 1B

Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, FA OF who can play CF, FA LHH 1B.

Sale*, Eovaldi, two of [Gausman, Erod, Pablo Lopez], Pivetta
Iglesias, Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Sawamura, Taylor*, Davis*

That's an affordable team with no obvious holes and financial room to upgrade at mid-season.
I’m with you on most of this. I think Taylor stays in LA or we can’t afford him.

A guy who could be the next Taylor is Nick Senzel, who’s had bad injury luck but is otherwise a blazingly fast and versatile former top prospect with good bat and plate discipline skills. He’s blocked in Cincinnati by Suarez, India and Moustakas and is being lapped in center by top prospect Jose Barrero. Senzel’s entering his first arb year and controllable through 2025. If the Reds want to move Sonny Gray, I’m interested there too.

I like extending Eovaldi (3/$45 seems fair and would lower his AAV) and/or retaining E-Rod. I think our odds are never good at signing premium FA pitchers who aren’t already in-house and don't think we have a shot at Gausman, at least at a price point that makes sense. The target to me is Sandy Alcantara. I’d offer Dalbec, Duran, Arroyo and Ronaldo Hernandez to Miami for Alcantara and maybe Aguilar, but I’m not sure that gets it done. They would seem to not need pitching.
 

scottyno

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And I predict he's going to Stephen Drew State Prison if he doesn't take it.
Penalties aren't as harsh as they used to be for signing teams, they're unlikely to lose a 1st round pick anymore, so teams won't really be worried about signing a good but not great QO guy because of the draft picks they'd lose.
 

grimshaw

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I’m with you on most of this. I think Taylor stays in LA or we can’t afford him.

A guy who could be the next Taylor is Nick Senzel, who’s had bad injury luck but is otherwise a blazingly fast and versatile former top prospect with good bat and plate discipline skills. He’s blocked in Cincinnati by Suarez, India and Moustakas and is being lapped in center by top prospect Jose Barrero. Senzel’s entering his first arb year and controllable through 2025. If the Reds want to move Sonny Gray, I’m interested there too.

I like extending Eovaldi (3/$45 seems fair and would lower his AAV) and/or retaining E-Rod. I think our odds are never good at signing premium FA pitchers who aren’t already in-house and don't think we have a shot at Gausman, at least at a price point that makes sense. The target to me is Sandy Alcantara. I’d offer Dalbec, Duran, Arroyo and Ronaldo Hernandez to Miami for Alcantara and maybe Aguilar, but I’m not sure that gets it done. They would seem to not need pitching.
When was the last time a guy took a pay cut after a top five Cy Young caliber season? He's been healthy and really good the past year and a half. Even if he settled for 3 years, he would probably get 20 mill+ IMO. Especially in the NL or AL central.

I think a fair comparison is Hyun Jin Ryu who went 4/80 at 33. Some past injury issues and ok seasons mixed in with a great one and half year run before his payday.
That was not a good division he had pitched in at the time either.
 
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scottyno

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I know the peripherals look better for ERod than the conventional stats this year. But Wheeler, aside from one season interrupted by injury, has never had an ERA over 4, has two seasons under 3, and has a career ERA of 3.51. ERod has been over 4 for 3 of his 6 seasons, and has a career 4.16 ERA. His worst full season was this year. I'm not sure Wheeler is a good comp. Wheeler's 162 game WAR average is 4.2, Erod's 3.4. If Erod can put in a full season like his second half, he likely would garner a bigger multiyear deal.
Wheeler also pitched in the NL in a pitchers park, not really fair to compare ERAs.

Wheeler has a 111 era+ in 1034 innings, Erod has a 110 era+ in 857 innings. The ERA difference is almost entirely league and park based.

If they think this year is fairly close to his new true talent level then he's a much better pitcher than Erod, if they think he's due for a reversion to his career mean then they're pretty similar, Wheeler maybe a little better durability.
 

cantor44

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Wheeler also pitched in the NL in a pitchers park, not really fair to compare ERAs.

Wheeler has a 111 era+ in 1034 innings, Erod has a 110 era+ in 857 innings. The ERA difference is almost entirely league and park based.

If they think this year is fairly close to his new true talent level then he's a much better pitcher than Erod, if they think he's due for a reversion to his career mean then they're pretty similar, Wheeler maybe a little better durability.
This is good stuff, though Erod's career numbers on the road are only negligibly better than his home numbers. Wheeler has better road than home numbers. Perhaps ERod will garner a Wheeler like deal, though I'm skeptical. We shall see!
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yeah, no. How, for instance, would he warm up to pitch before being called upon? If he wants to throw a slop inning in a blowout, I suppose that could help. But coming into game action straight from the outfield ... no chance
There will be days when he’d be resting. Possibly once a week depending on his splits going forward could even be more. He’d increase his value significantly if he could actually be a decent BP arm.
I’m all for it as long as, yeah, he’s not just coming in from the OF to pitch. If he understands it’d be on his rest days, then sure
 

Bertha

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Is this really something? I thought it was simply verdugo talking about how awesome he was.
Seems like He has the weakest arm strength of our 3 primary OFs. Even his Fenway LF throws to the plate seems to take forever. I would take Manny over him any day for a fenway LF to home throw, although some of that may be to due to quick release, which is not relevant on the mound.

Now Renfro as the Ryne Duren-type reliever would be fun!
 

johnnywayback

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I’m with you on most of this. I think Taylor stays in LA or we can’t afford him.

A guy who could be the next Taylor is Nick Senzel, who’s had bad injury luck but is otherwise a blazingly fast and versatile former top prospect with good bat and plate discipline skills. He’s blocked in Cincinnati by Suarez, India and Moustakas and is being lapped in center by top prospect Jose Barrero. Senzel’s entering his first arb year and controllable through 2025. If the Reds want to move Sonny Gray, I’m interested there too.

I like extending Eovaldi (3/$45 seems fair and would lower his AAV) and/or retaining E-Rod. I think our odds are never good at signing premium FA pitchers who aren’t already in-house and don't think we have a shot at Gausman, at least at a price point that makes sense. The target to me is Sandy Alcantara. I’d offer Dalbec, Duran, Arroyo and Ronaldo Hernandez to Miami for Alcantara and maybe Aguilar, but I’m not sure that gets it done. They would seem to not need pitching.
I can’t imagine they trade Alcantara for anything less than Casas-plus, and, frankly, Duran/Downs seems like an underpay for Lopez. But Miami would definitely be my first call.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Interesting to think about what the Sox would have looked like if they had managed to sign Charlie Morton last offseason. And amazing to see that the Braves added four outfielders at/near the trade deadline and have made it to the World Series. Even better, they gave up next to nothing to sign Soler, Rosario, Pederson, and Duvall. At the deadline Atlanta was in third place in the East and five games back.

Which is tangentially related to the question of what kind of return would Renfroe bring? I think he's at peak value this offseason, with two more years of arbitration eligibility. He's turning 30 in January.
 

ehaz

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I see everyone discussing guys like Gausman, Semien, Taylor, the SS stars, etc. but how much money do the Sox really have to spend? Especially if they plan on extending Devers/Bogaerts, I don't know if I see the room for a big ticket signing or even one of the
'second tier' types like Taylor or Semien.

I expect that if they make a big acquisition, it will be via trade. I'm hoping for a starting pitcher. Personally I'd be OK paying a huge price for Alcantara from Miami or Castillo from Cincinatti.
 

mfried

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I want MJ Melendez.
I also prefer Schwarber to JD, but what JD does is out of the office's control and I want Schwarber back either way.
I stay away from the big money shortstops.
Bring E-Rod back, Houck and Whitlock to the rotation, fill in the pen with free agents (who I admittedly haven't looked at yet). I agree with BMHH that it is tricky in free agency, but it is doable.
Decline Vaz' option.
I want MJ Melendez.
The office's control includes the possibility of trading him if the return includes good young pitching.
 

amRadio

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I see everyone discussing guys like Gausman, Semien, Taylor, the SS stars, etc. but how much money do the Sox really have to spend? Especially if they plan on extending Devers/Bogaerts, I don't know if I see the room for a big ticket signing or even one of the
'second tier' types like Taylor or Semien.

I expect that if they make a big acquisition, it will be via trade. I'm hoping for a starting pitcher. Personally I'd be OK paying a huge price for Alcantara from Miami or Castillo from Cincinatti.
According to Spotrac, Devers had a 7M luxury tax hit this past season and Xander had a 20M tax hit. I don't know how much salary is leaving the books this year off the top of my head but they ran up a 205M payroll last year according to Spotrac and the Herald. I don't know if it is 100% determined as of yet that that's the final number. Obviously Devers is going to see a 20M+ increase to his AAV on a reasonable extension, but I think Xander is going to end up with a marginal raise in terms of AAV since he already makes 20M. I don't think they will have him back if he wants to hold out for anywhere near 30M, but who knows. They should only be slightly over the 210M threshold if they get both of those players locked up. Obviously, the next CBA could lead to a situation where the tax operates entirely differently and the 210M threshold could go lower. Based on what we know right now, they should have 30-40M under the highest thresholds of the tax to work with to open up a window. Or maybe I'm looking at something wrong? That's how it seems to me right now.

Just as a brief aside since this is occasionally debated and I never weigh in: I really believe there is no chance after all the success they've had and the way the value of the Red Sox brand has exploded that ownership is just content and will stay under the tax forever.

It probably won't be this offseason, but when the time comes to spend on a big ticket item, I think they should have some room here. And I would also give up anyone not named Mayer or Yorke for Alcantara.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Next years luxury tax salaries (with arb estimates). *options. I didn’t include Richards, Perez, Schwarber as I assume their options will not be exercised

Sale 25.6
X 20.0
JD 19.4*
Eovaldi 17.0
Price 16.0
Devers 10.8
Barnes 8.1
Renfroe 7.5
Hernandez 7.0
Vazquez 7.0*
Pivetta 3.0
Verdugo 3.0
Plawecki 2.0
Brasier 1.8
Sawa 1.2
Arroyo 1.0
Dalbec 0.6
Davis 0.6
Whitlock 0.6
Houck 0.6
Taylor 0.6
Arauz 0.6
Duran 0.6

That’s 22 players at ~180M.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I see everyone discussing guys like Gausman, Semien, Taylor, the SS stars, etc. but how much money do the Sox really have to spend? Especially if they plan on extending Devers/Bogaerts, I don't know if I see the room for a big ticket signing or even one of the
'second tier' types like Taylor or Semien.

I expect that if they make a big acquisition, it will be via trade. I'm hoping for a starting pitcher. Personally I'd be OK paying a huge price for Alcantara from Miami or Castillo from Cincinatti.
Cot's is a great resource for salary information, especially their payroll and tax tracker spreadsheet. They've got the luxury tax payroll estimated at about $175M (all arb and pre-arb salary estimates included), leaving about $35M of space before they hit the tax threshold. That also doesn't include Vazquez's option ($7M), so assuming they pick that up, that gives them roughly $28M to address a potental opening in the rotation, a bullpen piece or two, and possibly a utility player of the Chris Taylor variety. I think that rules out any "name" free agent (including Taylor) if they want to keep some powder dry to extend Devers and/or Bogaerts and have some wiggle room at mid-season.

So yeah, unless JD opts-out to free up another $22M, it's likely they hit the trade market this winter to either free up more salary space for a big free agent or to acquire their upgrades directly.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Cot's is a great resource for salary information, especially their payroll and tax tracker spreadsheet. They've got the luxury tax payroll estimated at about $175M (all arb and pre-arb salary estimates included), leaving about $35M of space before they hit the tax threshold. That also doesn't include Vazquez's option ($7M), so assuming they pick that up, that gives them roughly $28M to address a potental opening in the rotation, a bullpen piece or two, and possibly a utility player of the Chris Taylor variety. I think that rules out any "name" free agent (including Taylor) if they want to keep some powder dry to extend Devers and/or Bogaerts and have some wiggle room at mid-season.

So yeah, unless JD opts-out to free up another $22M, it's likely they hit the trade market this winter to either free up more salary space for a big free agent or to acquire their upgrades directly.
I'm trying to play out what advantage in signing free agents, if any, is created by the uncertainty regarding the CBA? Might some free agents want to sign before December 1st?

If I understand the logistics, players get paid in installments during the season but not during the off-season so a lockout during the winter would not impact players' normal pay schedule unless it stretches until spring.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm trying to play out what advantage in signing free agents, if any, is created by the uncertainty regarding the CBA? Might some free agents want to sign before December 1st?

If I understand the logistics, players get paid in installments during the season but not during the off-season so a lockout during the winter would not impact players' normal pay schedule unless it stretches until spring.
I think there might be players willing to sign before the CBA, but will teams be willing? I imagine the teams in zero danger of even flirting with any penalties for high payroll would be okay signing a guy before the CBA, but high roller teams like the Dodgers and Yankees and Red Sox? Not so sure that's prudent if there's a chance of stiffer penalties or lower caps.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I can’t see any incentive for sides to come to agreement on deals before they know what the CBA will look like. Signing big deals before expiration doesn’t look great for the owners side, either.
 

chawson

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I see everyone discussing guys like Gausman, Semien, Taylor, the SS stars, etc. but how much money do the Sox really have to spend? Especially if they plan on extending Devers/Bogaerts, I don't know if I see the room for a big ticket signing or even one of the
'second tier' types like Taylor or Semien.

I expect that if they make a big acquisition, it will be via trade. I'm hoping for a starting pitcher. Personally I'd be OK paying a huge price for Alcantara from Miami or Castillo from Cincinatti.
They better have money to spend. We’ve been pinching pennies the last two seasons and the team just showed they are ready to contend. Obviously a lot depends on the CBA, but I think fans should stop rationalizing a need to stay under the luxury tax threshold, at least until we learn what the roster (not monetary) penalties are.

Cincinnati, Colorado, Miami, Minnesota and Oakland all seem like good trade partners. Alcantara is the real deal, and the fact that he’s absolute death on tough RHB makes him very attractive. Castillo reportedly has problems in cold weather, so I don’t know that he’s a great fit here. Sonny Gray would be alright if he’s available. Knowing Oakland, it may be time for them to trade guys like Montas, Manaea and Bassitt before they reach free agency. If the Twins want to offload Maeda, he’d be useful to us in a Houck/Whitlock-type role.

That’d be especially useful because I think we should trade Houck. Oakland and Minnesota badly need pitching and I imagine they’d be interested, but so would a lot of teams. I’ve said this before, but there’s just so many players on the Twins seemingly inessential to their rebuild that would fit great here (Buxton, Garver, Rogers, Duffey, Maeda, Sanó, from most to least valuable).
 
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Cot's is a great resource for salary information, especially their payroll and tax tracker spreadsheet. They've got the luxury tax payroll estimated at about $175M (all arb and pre-arb salary estimates included), leaving about $35M of space before they hit the tax threshold. That also doesn't include Vazquez's option ($7M), so assuming they pick that up, that gives them roughly $28M to address a potental opening in the rotation, a bullpen piece or two, and possibly a utility player of the Chris Taylor variety. I think that rules out any "name" free agent (including Taylor) if they want to keep some powder dry to extend Devers and/or Bogaerts and have some wiggle room at mid-season.

So yeah, unless JD opts-out to free up another $22M, it's likely they hit the trade market this winter to either free up more salary space for a big free agent or to acquire their upgrades directly.
For some perspective on the Red Sox $175M for 2022, Cot's has NYY at $221M, LAD $207.5, San Diego $207.2, Houston $157.4 and Atlanta $140.4.
 

InsideTheParker

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I think that Bloom will be looking to upgrade the bullpen, which seems the greatest area of need. I look at guys like Minter and Matzek and I want guys like that.
 

joe dokes

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I think that Bloom will be looking to upgrade the bullpen, which seems the greatest area of need. I look at guys like Minter and Matzek and I want guys like that.
I think it will end up being mostly pitchers we have not heard of and most will turn out to be pretty good.
 

allmanbro

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I think it will end up being mostly pitchers we have not heard of and most will turn out to be pretty good.
I expect we see several Austin Davis type acquisitions - and even if most aren't good, the goal will be to find one or two who are. It's possible they also supplement that with a big deal for a top-end name to anchor the pen, but I don't expect it. I think they signed Barnes to his extension hoping he could play that role, so now any big bullpen acquisition depends on what other needs are using up resources and what they think of Barnes. If I had to guess, I think that if a known top-end RP comes, it would be one of two ways; 1) as a secondary piece in a bigger deal, or 2) as a late FA signing if someone they like has fallen through the cracks come Feb or so.

In any case, in what will be a very unpredictable offseason, the bullpen is definitely the most unpredictable part.
 

nvalvo

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I expect we see several Austin Davis type acquisitions - and even if most aren't good, the goal will be to find one or two who are. It's possible they also supplement that with a big deal for a top-end name to anchor the pen, but I don't expect it. I think they signed Barnes to his extension hoping he could play that role, so now any big bullpen acquisition depends on what other needs are using up resources and what they think of Barnes. If I had to guess, I think that if a known top-end RP comes, it would be one of two ways; 1) as a secondary piece in a bigger deal, or 2) as a late FA signing if someone they like has fallen through the cracks come Feb or so.

In any case, in what will be a very unpredictable offseason, the bullpen is definitely the most unpredictable part.
There is word that the Padres want to shed payroll, and I wonder if we could take Drew Pomeranz off their hands.

Since leaving Boston, he was briefly terrible as a starter for San Francisco, and then excellent in relief, prompting a trade to Milwaukee (where he was incredible: 26.3 IP, 45 K, 8 BB) and then a big signing in San Diego, where he was very good in 2020 and in the first half of 2021. But then he had season-ending surgery for a flexor tendon issue, but he should be ready to go for spring training. He has two years remaining of a 4/$34m deal, so two years of an $8.5 AAV.

If he's healthy and SD is actually trying to trim payroll, a Pomeranz reunion might be an appealing 'pen option.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Has there been much talk about the QO, and the likelihood of its survival? It seems to me that it was one of the biggest, and most volatile changes in the last CBA. I would think situations like Stephen Drew’s would give a lot of players pause. I haven’t really read anything indicating what its popularity actually is, but on the surface it seems to be a tool that limits free agency to a degree, so I would imagine it would be on the chopping block. Especially given how awkwardly it has worked out for a few players.
 

nighthob

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There is word that the Padres want to shed payroll, and I wonder if we could take Drew Pomeranz off their hands.

Since leaving Boston, he was briefly terrible as a starter for San Francisco, and then excellent in relief, prompting a trade to Milwaukee (where he was incredible: 26.3 IP, 45 K, 8 BB) and then a big signing in San Diego, where he was very good in 2020 and in the first half of 2021. But then he had season-ending surgery for a flexor tendon issue, but he should be ready to go for spring training. He has two years remaining of a 4/$34m deal, so two years of an $8.5 AAV.

If he's healthy and SD is actually trying to trim payroll, a Pomeranz reunion might be an appealing 'pen option.
I wonder if the Padres would include a pitching or catching prospect?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I'd really like them to find a creative and reasonable way to extend Devers. MLBTradeRumors does a good job of estimating arb salaries, and they have him at $11.1m. That's...substantial. Given that arb 1 platform salary, and assuming the new CBA keeps a similar arb format (who knows?), they have to be thinking something like 11M, 16M, 21M for the next 3 years. And that might be light. But on that assumption, I'd like to see them offer a 5 year deal structured something like 12/16/20/26/32, which is $106M total and an avg of about $21M - a little more than Bogaerts got at a later arb stage, but also one year less.

I don't think Devers would take that, so I'd add an opt-out/in after year 4, when he'll be 29. That would get us Raffy's next 4 years, which, really, is what I'm aiming for. I'm concerned about how well he'll age. Getting his prime years is the paramount objective. If we need to sweeten the pot more, ok. Anything to avoid the 8-10 year, $300M+ kind of deal.
 

scottyno

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I'd really like them to find a creative and reasonable way to extend Devers. MLBTradeRumors does a good job of estimating arb salaries, and they have him at $11.1m. That's...substantial. Given that arb 1 platform salary, and assuming the new CBA keeps a similar arb format (who knows?), they have to be thinking something like 11M, 16M, 21M for the next 3 years. And that might be light. But on that assumption, I'd like to see them offer a 5 year deal structured something like 12/16/20/26/32, which is $106M total and an avg of about $21M - a little more than Bogaerts got at a later arb stage, but also one year less.

I don't think Devers would take that, so I'd add an opt-out/in after year 4, when he'll be 29. That would get us Raffy's next 4 years, which, really, is what I'm aiming for. I'm concerned about how well he'll age. Getting his prime years is the paramount objective. If we need to sweeten the pot more, ok. Anything to avoid the 8-10 year, $300M+ kind of deal.
He's an Arb 2 this year not Arb 1
 

BringBackMo

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Jul 15, 2005
196
This is good stuff, though Erod's career numbers on the road are only negligibly better than his home numbers. Wheeler has better road than home numbers. Perhaps ERod will garner a Wheeler like deal, though I'm skeptical. We shall see!
The entire point of ERA+ is that it adjusts for things like park factor, home/road splits, etc. In other words, if earned runs allowed in a vacuum is what you’re interested in, Wheeler and ERod could not be more similar in their careers.

This from Petagine comparing Wheeler at 28 to ERod, who is 28, further makes clear that Wheeler is an excellent comp for ERod and that anyone hoping for some kind of pillow-contract discount is likely to be disappointed.


Wheeler has been great with Philly, but when he signed the deal he was a 28 year old with a 44-38 record, 3.77 FIP, 100 ERA+, 2.9 bb, 8.9 k/9. Eduardo is 28 with a 64-39 record, 3.83 FIP, 110 ERA+, 3.1 bb, 9.4 k/9
If the Sox want ERod, it’s very likely to cost them. My guess is that the only reason the Sox are being coy about the QO is that they are legitimately trying to decide whether they want to spend the money long term that will be required to keep him. Announcing the QO would likely signify either a desire to move on from him or a harder line in any negotiations, and I’m sure the team would prefer not to go there at this point.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
22,070
Only Mouthpiece Heyman would waste the limited letter-count on "corporation" there.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
17,738
The gran facenda
Kiké has won the Fielding Bible Award for multi-position player for 2021.

SIS_Baseball @sis_baseball
29m

Congratulations to the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards Winners!
C- Jacob Stallings
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B- Whit Merrifield
SS- Carlos Correa 3B-
Ke'Bryan Hayes
LF- Tyler O'Neill
CF- Michael A. Taylor
RF- Aaron Judge
P- Dallas Keuchel
Multi-Pos - Kiké Hernández
 

GB5

lurker
Aug 26, 2013
157
my guess is that the Sox do not go shopping near the top of the market in any areas. I think they would be glad with Eduardo back, but my guess is that someone approaches or crosses the 20 mill per year barrier, and he departs. I dont think the Sox will be in or Gausman or any other big number guy. I am thinking more in the Rich Hill one year and an option category. I would like to check under the hood on Verlander, but my guess is that even coming off season ending surgery, he gets a big ticket somewhere.

I dont think they will be in on Correia, or Story or any infield big number middle of the diamond type. If they are going to go opposite of what I expect, my guess would be Semien, because he amy require shorter term.

For the pen, I think Perez and Richards are pitching elsewhere. Davis 50/50 to be back. I was surprised with the Barnes contract because I thought they were going to sign a bunch of low budget guys and find 3-4 of them who can dazzle with one pitch and be acceptable with a second. Reclamations, Hand, Soria, maybe money on Greg Holland
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,419
That’s a bit of a tough break on Semien. I see him as a legit target. Maybe we can get an inside track given his old friendship with Toboni, but that’s not worth much and it seems like it’ll draw out. Glad for him that he’ll be paid, though — likable player!
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,270
Chicago, IL
my guess is that the Sox do not go shopping near the top of the market in any areas. I think they would be glad with Eduardo back, but my guess is that someone approaches or crosses the 20 mill per year barrier, and he departs. I dont think the Sox will be in or Gausman or any other big number guy. I am thinking more in the Rich Hill one year and an option category. I would like to check under the hood on Verlander, but my guess is that even coming off season ending surgery, he gets a big ticket somewhere.

I dont think they will be in on Correia, or Story or any infield big number middle of the diamond type. If they are going to go opposite of what I expect, my guess would be Semien, because he amy require shorter term.

For the pen, I think Perez and Richards are pitching elsewhere. Davis 50/50 to be back. I was surprised with the Barnes contract because I thought they were going to sign a bunch of low budget guys and find 3-4 of them who can dazzle with one pitch and be acceptable with a second. Reclamations, Hand, Soria, maybe money on Greg Holland
Well, at a certain point, the Red Sox under Bloom will start to pony up. They will cross the tax threshold soon, if not this coming year, then the next. They will sign big name free agents, too, whether extending their own or signing new guys. It is inconceivable that the Red Sox would continue to only hunt for bargains, or run the organization like TB. They have a financial advantage, and they'll continue to use it. Dipping back under the tax every few years is important because of the draft penalties, but I'd be shocked if the Red Sox made an organizational decision to always stay under. They might always stay away from 12 year deals (and I understand why) which might preclude a few of the most elite free agents, but they won't always be bargain hunting.