Red Sox in season discussion

Bosoxian

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Would anything stop them from signing him to a $10mil a year minor league contract now, knowing they’ll promote him?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Would anything stop them from signing him to a $10mil a year minor league contract now, knowing they’ll promote him?
I imagine that since he's not a true free agent, that's not an option. There's surely something in MLB's agreement with NPB that would prohibit circumventing the established posting process like that. He was officially posted 10 days before the lockout began and MLB and NPB agreed to pause the 30 day window during the lockout. So the day the lockout ends, the clock restarts on his posting window and he has 20 days to agree to a contract with someone. If he settles on a team in the meantime, there's no reason to jump the gun. He'll sign immediately after the lockout.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I imagine that since he's not a true free agent, that's not an option. There's surely something in MLB's agreement with NPB that would prohibit circumventing the established posting process like that. He was officially posted 10 days before the lockout began and MLB and NPB agreed to pause the 30 day window during the lockout. So the day the lockout ends, the clock restarts on his posting window and he has 20 days to agree to a contract with someone. If he settles on a team in the meantime, there's no reason to jump the gun. He'll sign immediately after the lockout.
Assuming this will happen, I also believe that Schwarber isn’t being resigned. Likely one more minor BP move and that’ll be it.
 

bosockboy

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Assuming this will happen, I also believe that Schwarber isn’t being resigned. Likely one more minor BP move and that’ll be it.
It’s been so long that I’ve thought about the roster. If Henry is willing to splash the pot for a year, you could sign Schwarber too and he becomes full time DH in 2023 after JD is gone. Move Dalbec+ for a quality reliever and live with Schwarber at first.
 

Daniel_Son

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This Yahoo Japan article (in Japanese) does indeed say the Sox are front-runners for Suzuki. However it's in direction contradiction to the Nikkan Sports article @DeadlySplitter posted, which says the 4 finalists are believed to be the Mariners, Cubs, Giants, and Padres. The only time the Sox are mentioned by name in the Nikkan piece is to say that the Sox, Yanks, and other teams based in Florida for ST are thought to have been knocked down a tier by Suzuki after his first round of evaluations.

Both articles came out this morning so, who knows. I guess the only slight reason I have for believing the Yahoo one over the Nikkan one (besides pure wish-casting) is that the Yahoo one talks about Suzuki making his final visit yesterday to his old coaches, owner, and teammates in Hiroshima before they head off for Spring Training, so the sourcing is potentially someone close to him with fresh information. The Nikkan one on the other hand cites "various sources affiliated with MLB," which seems less concrete to me.

But anyway yeah I think it's still too early to know.
Preller has never failed to surprise me, but I really doubt the Padres are in on this one. According to Spottrac, they've got around $2.3 million of space to play with (although who know what the CBT threshold looks like if/when games resume), so unless Seidler really buys into the notion that an unproven commodity like Suzuki is going to make the difference this year, I don't think they're signing him. Let's see what they can do with a healthy Clevinger and Tatis - and if Lamet can get back to 2020 form, even better.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Preller has never failed to surprise me, but I really doubt the Padres are in on this one. According to Spottrac, they've got around $2.3 million of space to play with (although who know what the CBT threshold looks like if/when games resume), so unless Seidler really buys into the notion that an unproven commodity like Suzuki is going to make the difference this year, I don't think they're signing him. Let's see what they can do with a healthy Clevinger and Tatis - and if Lamet can get back to 2020 form, even better.
My guess is you're probably right that he's not a fit for them right now. However, given their recent propensity to spend money, it makes sense that they would appear on a list of "finalists" simply as a bargaining tool with the other clubs. Same reason the Yankees and Red Sox and Dodgers are so often linked to the biggest free agents every winter even if there's no chance they're actually in on them. They've got the money and a history of spending it.
 

Daniel_Son

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My guess is you're probably right that he's not a fit for them right now. However, given their recent propensity to spend money, it makes sense that they would appear on a list of "finalists" simply as a bargaining tool with the other clubs. Same reason the Yankees and Red Sox and Dodgers are so often linked to the biggest free agents every winter even if there's no chance they're actually in on them. They've got the money and a history of spending it.
You're probably right, nothing more than means to drive up the price.

Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox... and the San Diego Padres. Crazy times.
 

GB5

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Gammons twitter this morning says Mariners look to be the favorite, but other GM's fear the Giants might swoop in ahead of them. Looks like it is relying on the Japanese Nikkan sports report that has Mariners, Cubs, Giants, and Padres as candidates.
 

DadOfFenway

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Gammons twitter this morning says Mariners look to be the favorite, but other GM's fear the Giants might swoop in ahead of them. Looks like it is relying on the Japanese Nikkan sports report that has Mariners, Cubs, Giants, and Padres as candidates.
Just watching MLB and they are talking about this as well... Seattle, Giants, Padres... not a peep about the Red Sox at all - which might actually be a very good thing!
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Are they sticking to the $230m mark, or will they go above it considering JD and Price are up after the season?
They have almost nothing committed past this year. Future payroll is largely a mystery; it all depends on what they do with X, Devers, etc. But I think they could go over his year and next, over in neither, or one and not the other. Who knows?
 

chrisfont9

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Do we know if anyone was allowed to talk to free agents during the lockout? Obviously no deals, so I am sure the official line was no, but it seems like there weren't really any actual rules. I wonder if it'll be NBA/NFL style where deals just start pouring in right away. I doubt it, but we are in uncharted territory right now. And players need to get to camp.
 

ookami7m

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Do we know if anyone was allowed to talk to free agents during the lockout? Obviously no deals, so I am sure the official line was no, but it seems like there weren't really any actual rules. I wonder if it'll be NBA/NFL style where deals just start pouring in right away. I doubt it, but we are in uncharted territory right now. And players need to get to camp.
Officially they have not been able to speak. Now whatever back channel stuff was going on….
 

jon abbey

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Are the luxury tax penalties just $, or is there still a level at which teams loose draft picks?

I’ve been radicalized to the point where I expect JWH to spend like Steinbrenner after a Studio 54 coke orgy if doesn’t cost the Sox draft position.
I didn’t see specifics but someone said the same non-financial penalties are still in place.
 

Eddie Bressoud

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It is time to make some deals. I would like to see the Sox make a trade with Oakland for anyone of the 4 - 5 guys that are their big $ folks.
 

nvalvo

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Just to get the juices flowing again, here's a proposed offseason. Let's see how much my posting muscles have atrophied during the lockout.

I'm assuming we're aiming to go over the cap by a substantial margin, but not by so much that we can't reset next year if desired:

Step One: Sign OF Seiya Suzuki for a corner outfield slot. 6/$50m

CBT up to ~$215m

Step Two: Trade JD Martinez to the San Francisco Giants for whichever of Joey Bart or Patrick Bailey they'll send us — giving us a legitimate catching prospect in the high minors. Likely we're eating some of the contract to get a good prospect back, let's say $7m. This clears our RH DH logjam of an older hitter, sheds some money, and acquires a good catching prospect. I'm assuming that the universal DH juices JDM's value considerably; I could be waaaaay off on how much.

CBT down to ~$200m

Step Three: Sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a 4/$70m deal. This gives us a LH DH in the middle of the lineup.

CBT up to ~$218m

Step Four: Sign SS Carlos Correa for 10/$320m. Bogaerts to a 2B/LF role.

CBT up to ~$240m

Step Five: Sign RP Ryan Tepera to a 3/$20m deal.

CBT up to ~$247m

Step Six: Sign IF/OF Josh Harrison to 1/$5m deal

CBT up to ~$252m

Step Seven: Ink Devers to a 12 year extension, through his age 36 season. 12/$300m.

CBT up to ~$277

26-man roster

C Vazquez RH
C Plawecki RH
1B Dalbec RH
2B Bogaerts RH
3B Devers LH
SS Correa RH
IF Arroyo RH
LF Verdugo LH
CF Hernandez RH
RF Suzuki RH
OF Bradley LH
IF/OF Harrison RH
DH Schwarber LH

Position player depth:
OF Refsnyder RH
OF Duran LH
IF Downs RH
1B Casas LH
C Wong RH
Whichever C prospect we got from the Giants.

SP Sale LH
SP Eovaldi RH
SP Hill LH
SP Pivetta RH
SP Houck RH

SW Wacha RH

CL Barnes RH
SU Tepera RH
SU Taylor LH
SU Whitlock RH
RP Sawamura RH
RP Murphy LH
RP Brasier RH

SP Depth:
Stretching out Whitlock
James Paxton (IL)
Kutter Crawford
Connor Seabold
Josh Winckowski
Brandon Walter
Thad Ward

RP depth:
Austin Davis
Phillips Valdez
Chris Murphy
Durbin Feltman
Eduard Bazardo
Jacob Wallace

Opening Day Lineup with handedness and Zips OPS+ projection:
SS Correa RH 124 zOPS+ (projected in MMP)
3B Devers LH 131 zOPS+
2B Bogaerts RH 125 zOPS+
DH Schwarber LH 133 zOPS+
RF Suzuki RH ???
1B Dalbec RH 98 zOPS+
LF Verdugo LH 108 zOPS+
C Vazquez RH 83 zOPS+
CF Hernández RH 113 zOPS+

Hooooooly shit. If Dalbec beat his projections, which seems plausible, that team could score 900 runs.

But, you're thinking: damn, this team is expensive. And you're right.

But — after 2022, we would have coming off the books the following: Bogaerts' $20m (assuming he opts out, which he has said he plans to do), whatever we're paying on JDM, Eovaldi's $17m, Kiké's $7m, Bradley's $11m, Vazquez' $7m, Plawecki's $2m.... So that's likely $70m coming off, bringing us back under the first threshold for next year (with $20m+ to spare) and with prospects to patch up CF/2B/SP/C from the farm — and James Paxton waiting in the wings.

We could afford it. And then we'd be well set up for the next few seasons with a new Devers-Correa-Verdugo-Suzuki-Casas position playing core coming together, and a bunch of pitching on the cusp.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Just to get the juices flowing again, here's a proposed offseason. Let's see how much my posting muscles have atrophied during the lockout.

I'm assuming we're aiming to go over the cap by a substantial margin, but not by so much that we can't reset next year if desired:

Step One: Sign OF Seiya Suzuki for a corner outfield slot. 6/$50m

CBT up to ~$215m

Step Two: Trade JD Martinez to the San Francisco Giants for whichever of Joey Bart or Patrick Bailey they'll send us — giving us a legitimate catching prospect in the high minors. Likely we're eating some of the contract to get a good prospect back, let's say $7m. This clears our RH DH logjam of an older hitter, sheds some money, and acquires a good catching prospect. I'm assuming that the universal DH juices JDM's value considerably; I could be waaaaay off on how much.

CBT down to ~$200m

Step Three: Sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a 4/$70m deal. This gives us a LH DH in the middle of the lineup.

CBT up to ~$218m

Step Four: Sign SS Carlos Correa for 10/$320m. Bogaerts to a 2B/LF role.

CBT up to ~$240m

Step Five: Sign RP Ryan Tepera to a 3/$20m deal.

CBT up to ~$247m

Step Six: Sign IF/OF Josh Harrison to 1/$5m deal

CBT up to ~$252m

Step Seven: Ink Devers to a 12 year extension, through his age 36 season. 12/$300m.

CBT up to ~$277
Sorry for the nitpick... your math is off by $10m. When you signed Correa for $32m/year, you only added $22m ($218m to $240m).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They dropped recently. Kyrie Irving is playing home games again.
Nope, that’s not true. There is a private sector mandate which is why Irving, as an employee of the Nets, is not allowed to play home games. Mayor has said he won’t lift it for Kyrie. I assume it would apply to Yankees and Mets as well?
 

koufax32

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No idea where else to put this, so apologies.

I’m trying to get some ST tickets for when Boston comes to Lakeland to play the Tigers and the only site selling tickets right now is called vividseats. I’ve never heard of them. SoSH thoughts on this?
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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No idea where else to put this, so apologies.

I’m trying to get some ST tickets for when Boston comes to Lakeland to play the Tigers and the only site selling tickets right now is called vividseats. I’ve never heard of them. SoSH thoughts on this?
It's a legit site, they're a competitor of StubHub.
 

Dduncan6er

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When should we start seeing the free agency dominos start to fall? I thought reporters were saying last night would be huge but there hasn't even been any rumors that I've seen.
 

koufax32

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Thanks, all.

I was weirded out since tickets aren’t available on the Tigers website or Stubhub.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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When should we start seeing the free agency dominos start to fall? I thought reporters were saying last night would be huge but there hasn't even been any rumors that I've seen.
I bet the big dominos don't start falling until late in the weekend, if not early next week. Even if some parties were back-channel talking during the lockout, none of them want to be first out of the gate in a way that makes it obvious they've been talking. I think somewhere between 24 and 48 hours out from the end of the lock-out is where we start to see some movement, with the first big headliner coming late Saturday or sometime Sunday.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Ready for some cliches?

As long as we're spitballing, I think some team's going to break the seal on a big FA signing within the next few hours, and then all hell's gonna break loose over the rest of the day.
 

chawson

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Just to get the juices flowing again, here's a proposed offseason. Let's see how much my posting muscles have atrophied during the lockout.

I'm assuming we're aiming to go over the cap by a substantial margin, but not by so much that we can't reset next year if desired:

Step One: Sign OF Seiya Suzuki for a corner outfield slot. 6/$50m

CBT up to ~$215m

Step Two: Trade JD Martinez to the San Francisco Giants for whichever of Joey Bart or Patrick Bailey they'll send us — giving us a legitimate catching prospect in the high minors. Likely we're eating some of the contract to get a good prospect back, let's say $7m. This clears our RH DH logjam of an older hitter, sheds some money, and acquires a good catching prospect. I'm assuming that the universal DH juices JDM's value considerably; I could be waaaaay off on how much.

CBT down to ~$200m

Step Three: Sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a 4/$70m deal. This gives us a LH DH in the middle of the lineup.

CBT up to ~$218m

Step Four: Sign SS Carlos Correa for 10/$320m. Bogaerts to a 2B/LF role.

CBT up to ~$240m

Step Five: Sign RP Ryan Tepera to a 3/$20m deal.

CBT up to ~$247m

Step Six: Sign IF/OF Josh Harrison to 1/$5m deal

CBT up to ~$252m

Step Seven: Ink Devers to a 12 year extension, through his age 36 season. 12/$300m.

CBT up to ~$277

26-man roster

C Vazquez RH
C Plawecki RH
1B Dalbec RH
2B Bogaerts RH
3B Devers LH
SS Correa RH
IF Arroyo RH
LF Verdugo LH
CF Hernandez RH
RF Suzuki RH
OF Bradley LH
IF/OF Harrison RH
DH Schwarber LH

Position player depth:
OF Refsnyder RH
OF Duran LH
IF Downs RH
1B Casas LH
C Wong RH
Whichever C prospect we got from the Giants.

SP Sale LH
SP Eovaldi RH
SP Hill LH
SP Pivetta RH
SP Houck RH

SW Wacha RH

CL Barnes RH
SU Tepera RH
SU Taylor LH
SU Whitlock RH
RP Sawamura RH
RP Murphy LH
RP Brasier RH

SP Depth:
Stretching out Whitlock
James Paxton (IL)
Kutter Crawford
Connor Seabold
Josh Winckowski
Brandon Walter
Thad Ward

RP depth:
Austin Davis
Phillips Valdez
Chris Murphy
Durbin Feltman
Eduard Bazardo
Jacob Wallace

Opening Day Lineup with handedness and Zips OPS+ projection:
SS Correa RH 124 zOPS+ (projected in MMP)
3B Devers LH 131 zOPS+
2B Bogaerts RH 125 zOPS+
DH Schwarber LH 133 zOPS+
RF Suzuki RH ???
1B Dalbec RH 98 zOPS+
LF Verdugo LH 108 zOPS+
C Vazquez RH 83 zOPS+
CF Hernández RH 113 zOPS+

Hooooooly shit. If Dalbec beat his projections, which seems plausible, that team could score 900 runs.

But, you're thinking: damn, this team is expensive. And you're right.

But — after 2022, we would have coming off the books the following: Bogaerts' $20m (assuming he opts out, which he has said he plans to do), whatever we're paying on JDM, Eovaldi's $17m, Kiké's $7m, Bradley's $11m, Vazquez' $7m, Plawecki's $2m.... So that's likely $70m coming off, bringing us back under the first threshold for next year (with $20m+ to spare) and with prospects to patch up CF/2B/SP/C from the farm — and James Paxton waiting in the wings.

We could afford it. And then we'd be well set up for the next few seasons with a new Devers-Correa-Verdugo-Suzuki-Casas position playing core coming together, and a bunch of pitching on the cusp.
This is all almost exactly what I’m hoping for at this point too. Yes to Correa, Suzuki and Schwarber, whose 4-year deal would age extremely well with no shift. Only difference is that I think the time is now to trade Duran and Dalbec.

I’d use them to pry Montas from the A’s, say for Duran, Dalbec and Arroyo, who all fill prospect/positional gaps in Oakland’s rebuild. Maybe a subsidized JDM, who can mentor those young hitters before he’s flipped at the deadline, helps that package too. Andrus comes back and he’s our utility guy instead of Harrison (who I also like).

To plug the 1B bridge to Casas, sign Daniel Vogelbach or Colin Moran, two once-hyped hitters who suffered badly under the shift. Each has been DFA’d and would still have some team control for a possible no-shift breakout in ‘23. (Franchy Cordero would also benefit from the new CBA rules too if he’s around in ‘23). Vogelbach/Moran, Refsnyder and Schwarber handle 1B/DH until Casas is ready.

Casas has had a busy offseason and a decent shot to be up this summer. If for some reason he’s not ready and all the above options flop, there should be options by the trade deadline (Belt, Bell, Aguilar, Santana). The risk with Dalbec is that he’s OPSing .600 by early summer and Casas is ready to go. Then what do you do with him?

I think JDM is getting dealt, but have doubts about that San Francisco trade. They may have DH pretty covered with Darin Ruf (144 RC+ in ‘21) and Wilmer Flores (113), but who knows. St. Louis and Philadelphia seem like options. I think a team with young hitters where he can tap into a mentorship role, like Oakland or even Seattle, could work.

Who says no to something like this?

Boston gets: Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Stephen Piscotty
Oakland gets: Dalbec, Duran, Houck, Arroyo, Martinez, cash

This is the blockbuster form of this deal, but smaller permutations (removing Houck and Murphy) would work too. Not sure what we’d do with Piscotty, especially if we’ve got Suzuki, but it doesn’t matter — we could even DFA him. Just load up on short-term payroll hits.
 

sezwho

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I bet the big dominos don't start falling until late in the weekend, if not early next week. Even if some parties were back-channel talking during the lockout, none of them want to be first out of the gate in a way that makes it obvious they've been talking. I think somewhere between 24 and 48 hours out from the end of the lock-out is where we start to see some movement, with the first big headliner coming late Saturday or sometime Sunday.
I had taken the fatalistic approach to seeing games again this season so had checked out a bit on negotiation stages. In hindsight it appears most key issues were nearly bridged, but I do wonder whether there were any CBA elements resolved only in the last couple days that may impact team's strategies and thus delay decisions.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Saw the chatter above re: mandates, no rules have gotten stricter than last season. Outdoor venues are not restricting unvaccinated players. It's simply the Canada mandate that will be an issue for players. Basketball is obviously different.
 

BringBackMo

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Jul 15, 2005
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I appreciate this kind of outside-the-box thinking. I agree that we’ll see teams run a few offers up the flagpole in the hours ahead and see if any agents salute. Before too long, the first domino will fall, which will then break up the log jam in the market and eventually lead to a sea change in the players’ mindset and set off a tidal wave of signings.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’d expect Bloom to follow the pattern of the last few years; finding undervalued players who are willing to sign short term deals that provide the team upside with relatively little long term risk. A 10-12 year deal to someone like Correa seems unlikely. I wouldn’t expect any massive deals in the next few weeks.

Looking at what they’ve done so far this off-season, I don’t think the new CBA dramatically changed that approach. Suddenly signing Schwarber, Suzuki, Correa and trading JD would be a pretty remarkable change of course.
 

chawson

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I’d expect Bloom to follow the pattern of the last few years; finding undervalued players who are willing to sign short term deals that provide the team upside with relatively little long term risk. A 10-12 year deal to someone like Correa seems unlikely. I wouldn’t expect any massive deals in the next few weeks.

Looking at what they’ve done so far this off-season, I don’t think the new CBA dramatically changed that approach. Suddenly signing Schwarber, Suzuki, Correa and trading JD would be a pretty remarkable change of course.
I’m thrilled that baseball is back and we can renew this friendly argument. I have no idea how you see:

A) a 20M luxury tax threshold increase +
B) $140~ million in salary expiring by 2024
and conclude
C) the Red Sox will only sign short-term deals for small money

The reason Bloom signed the short deals that he did the last two years, and earlier this offseason, was to be able to spend today. Next year’s FA class is crap, and we’re contenders now. We’re gonna spend.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Next years FA class includes Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Nate Eovaldi, and maybe Chris Sale, though; with Devers the year after that. The reason that there is so much money coming off the books is because there is almost nobody under contract, in part because Bloom hasn’t given out multi-year deals. I suspect they made add some more players but I don’t think Correa, Schwarber, Suzuki, etc (and trading a bunch of young cost controlled talent) is at all realistic. Dombrowski is not the GM anymore.

But excited to talk about it again and see what happens! If they sign a FA to a $300m deal in the next few weeks, I’ll eat my hat.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Next years FA class includes Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Nate Eovaldi, and maybe Chris Sale, though; with Devers the year after that. The reason that there is so much money coming off the books is because there is almost nobody under contract, in part because Bloom hasn’t given out multi-year deals. I suspect they made add some more players but I don’t think Correa, Schwarber, Suzuki, etc (and trading a bunch of young cost controlled talent) is at all realistic. Dombrowski is not the GM anymore.

But excited to talk about it again and see what happens! If they sign a FA to a $300m deal in the next few weeks, I’ll eat my hat.
I can see them signing Suzuki and Schwarber. Correa would shock me though.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Lot of folks talking about DH strategies. Big question for me is whether or not Devers is the long term solution at 3B. I suppose it's too soon to talk about shelving such a young guy and DH'ng him, but the Red Sox infield has a lot of question marks right now (pending Casas and Mayers). Interested in hearing thoughts on the whole short and long term configuration.
 

E5 Yaz

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Lot of folks talking about DH strategies. Big question for me is whether or not Devers is the long term solution at 3B. I suppose it's too soon to talk about shelving such a young guy and DH'ng him, but the Red Sox infield has a lot of question marks right now (pending Casas and Mayers). Interested in hearing thoughts on the whole short and long term configuration.
I was thinking about this the other day and it led me to think of Edgar Martinez. Different circumstances, sure; but the Mariners cut bait on Edgar as a regular 3B after three seasons, seeing the true value was in his bat.
 

BringBackMo

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The specifics of this new CBA line up in a way that benefits the Red Sox greatly. There is more money to spend under the tax, and the NL now has the DH, creating a much bigger trade market for Martinez. It is quite obvious that Bloom has been following the blueprint that his mentor has used so successfully with the Dodgers, and from my perspective, the new CBA allows the Red Sox to accelerate their timeline by a year. I see the Sox taking advantage of this new opportunity and making moves that they might not have otherwise made this year. Trading JD and signing both Schwarber and Suzuki seems like exactly those kinds of moves.

However, I would be borderline shocked if they sign Correa, move Bogaerts to second against his wishes, and then just let him walk. I think people assuming this is going to happen are dramatically underestimating the degree to which the Sox, having already traded Mookie, will be sensitive to the perception that they will ruthlessly dump generational, face-of-the-franchise players whenever it suits them.